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  #21  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2007, 8:58 PM
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I think a good measure of whether or not two metros are connected as "megapolis's" or not is whether or not people can live in one part of the area and work in another. In the case of SF-SD, clearly that is not possible to do. LA-SD though has commuters that go to the other metro for work.

I'm sure this is the case with Boston-DC as well. Maybe you could work in Philly and live in NY, but you couldn't live in Boston and work in DC everyday.

I'm sure I raised more questions than I answered, but it's something to keep in mind...

Last edited by spoonman; Apr 24, 2007 at 5:51 AM.
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  #22  
Old Posted Apr 28, 2007, 6:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Avian001 View Post
Yes, it is a matter of perspective as you say. So therefore I think NYC and LA really are the only two mega-cities in the US. There is a huge gap from there. And so you are right, that isn't much of a list. I don't care if you want to arbitrarily make a 5-million cutoff. That's certainly OK. I just think that it's really a stretch to call those towns Mega-cities.
Its a little much to call a city over 5 million a town. Atlanta seems like quite a mega-city from the perspective of an area up to 800 miles around it. For a listing of cities in the United States, 5 million is a number well beyond what a normal person can keep in their head and therefore a city with 5 million qualifies at least as a metropolis.
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  #23  
Old Posted Apr 28, 2007, 6:55 AM
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Originally Posted by BKOTH97 View Post
1. Boston - New York - DC "New England"
2. Pittsburgh - Cleveland - Detroit - Chicago "Rust Belt" or "Midwest"
3. Miami - Tampa - Orlando "Sun Coast"
4. New Orleans - Biloxi - Mobile - Pensacola "Gulf Coast"
5. Houston - Dallas - San Antonio "Lone Star"
6. Raleigh - Charlotte - Atlanta - Birmingham - Nashville "Appalachia"
7. San Francisco - Los Angeles - San Diego "West Coast"
8. Seattle - Tacoma - Portland "Great Northwest"

http://www.imagewoof.com/view_image/...MegaCities.jpg
I'm not sure there's a real point for this list right now, but maybe in a hundred years. And by the way, how did you slip #4 in there? NO-Biloxi-Mobile is probably no more than 10% the size of those other listed "mega-ulta lopilises"
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  #24  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2007, 2:04 AM
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Originally Posted by NDtexan View Post
how did you slip #4 in there? NO-Biloxi-Mobile is probably no more than 10% the size of those other listed "mega-ulta lopilises"
I think that the New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola area is going to be one of the highest growth areas over the next 30-50 years. When compared to the Florida Panhandle, the cost of living is very cheap and it is a pretty compact area (distance between cities). If you look at the density map, you can see what I am talking about. Today that area has about 4.6M people in it based on the 2006 census.

BKOTH97
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  #25  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2007, 3:04 AM
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Originally Posted by BKOTH97 View Post
Just for fun, I took the county density map from the 2006 numbers and tried to determine what the sprawling US "Megacities" might look like in the intermediate future...say 2100.

I have circled areas that seem to stand out as continuous tracts of densely populated cities and towns throughout the United States. What I came up with were a total of 8 possible "Mega Cities" or Megalopolis' around different parts of the country. Today there are 2 certifiable Megalopolis' in the US...those being SF - San Diego and Boston - DC. The other 6 in my list are developing Megalopolis'.

1. Boston - New York - DC "New England"
2. Pittsburgh - Cleveland - Detroit - Chicago "Rust Belt" or "Midwest"
3. Miami - Tampa - Orlando "Sun Coast"
4. New Orleans - Biloxi - Mobile - Pensacola "Gulf Coast"
5. Houston - Dallas - San Antonio "Lone Star"
6. Raleigh - Charlotte - Atlanta - Birmingham - Nashville "Appalachia"
7. San Francisco - Los Angeles - San Diego "West Coast"
8. Seattle - Tacoma - Portland "Great Northwest"

All of the other cities seem to be in areas where they dominate the area and don't really run into other cities. See Minneapolis, Phoenix, Denver, Kansas City. Anyway, I thought I would throw this out for discussion.

http://www.imagewoof.com/view_image/...MegaCities.jpg
You can't use the Cascadia and not put Everett and Vancouver in there. Even Eugene should be in there. That county map is very misleading. The counties in Oregon and Washington are large in area but most of the population is centralized around I-5.
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  #26  
Old Posted May 1, 2007, 7:22 AM
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Originally Posted by BKOTH97 View Post
I think that the New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola area is going to be one of the highest growth areas over the next 30-50 years. When compared to the Florida Panhandle, the cost of living is very cheap and it is a pretty compact area (distance between cities). If you look at the density map, you can see what I am talking about. Today that area has about 4.6M people in it based on the 2006 census.

BKOTH97
You may anticipate massive growth for the Gulf Coast, but it still has no business being grouped with those other city clusters in this asinine list now nor in 30 years. After all, each of the other clusters is well over 10million right now(with the possible exception of the Northwest one), and the clusters towards the bottom of that range - "Appalachia, Sun Coast and Lone Star" - all have huge growth right now. No matter how much you think NO-Biloxi-Pensacola is going to grow in the future, it will not get in range of any of the other clusters on that list in 10,000 years.
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  #27  
Old Posted May 1, 2007, 6:25 PM
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Originally Posted by NDtexan View Post
You may anticipate massive growth for the Gulf Coast, but it still has no business being grouped with those other city clusters in this asinine list now nor in 30 years. After all, each of the other clusters is well over 10million right now(with the possible exception of the Northwest one), and the clusters towards the bottom of that range - "Appalachia, Sun Coast and Lone Star" - all have huge growth right now. No matter how much you think NO-Biloxi-Pensacola is going to grow in the future, it will not get in range of any of the other clusters on that list in 10,000 years.

Wow, the hyperbole is thick today. For example, in 1970, who would have thought that Phoenix or possibly Seattle and Riverside, CA (in a few years) would approach and possibly pass Detroit in MSA size? Lots can change in 30-50 years, much less 100 years.
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  #28  
Old Posted May 1, 2007, 11:22 PM
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Phoenix isn't going to pass Detroit anytime soon. For one, by the time Phoenix reaches 5 million people, Detroit will have absorbed adjacent metros such as Jackson, Lansing, and Toledo creating a CSA of more than 7 million.

BTW, awhile ago I tried creating several "urban regions". The point wasn't to show areas of continuous urban development as that is what the current "urban areas" are for. The point was to show stretches of land where many large urban areas developed in close proximity and have a somewhat cohesive identity. The biggest example is the Northeast Megalopolis. Other examples were the Southern Piedmont, the Florida Peninsula, The Rust Belt, Norcal, Socal, etc.

The only two that I completed were the Northeast Megalopolis and the Southern Piedmont. I can't remember what the population of the Northeast Megalopolis was, but I believe it was over 50 million.



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  #29  
Old Posted May 2, 2007, 4:45 AM
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Originally Posted by hudkina View Post
Phoenix isn't going to pass Detroit anytime soon. For one, by the time Phoenix reaches 5 million people, Detroit will have absorbed adjacent metros such as Jackson, Lansing, and Toledo creating a CSA of more than 7 million.
When Phoenix reaches 5 Million, Detroit will still be stuck at 4.4-4.6. Detroit is a dying city and the failure of the US Auto industry is not helping matters.

Detroit 1990 = 4.2M
Phoenix 1990 = 2.2M

Detroit 2006 = 4.4M
Phoenix 2006 = 4.1M

Detroit has added a total of 200K in the last 16 years, while Phoenix has added 2Million. That is almost 100% population growth for Phoenix in 16 years. At the current sustained growth rate, Phoenix will pass Detroit sometime in 2008.

Detroit will most likely be passed by the following MSAs in the 2010 Census:

Boston
Phoenix
Riverside, CA

BKOTH97

Last edited by BKOTH97; May 2, 2007 at 5:14 AM.
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  #30  
Old Posted May 2, 2007, 5:22 AM
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^ with the increasing water problems in the Southwest, and the drier climate predicted in the next few decades. Phoenix is going to have a shit load of problems dealing with water.
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  #31  
Old Posted May 2, 2007, 1:57 PM
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The water issue dates back to the 1950's. Granted it's a concern, but don't underestimate the ability to resolve this issue. The water issue is a problem in Atlanta as well, but it won't slow the growth here. The area keeps coming up with means and technological ways to increase the water supply just as they will in the west.
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  #32  
Old Posted May 2, 2007, 5:43 PM
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^ Yea like water restrictions, but they can only go so far. Once the water levels in the reserviors start dropping and you have another 2 million people on your hands, what do you do then. Are there any new significant water projects in your area?
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  #33  
Old Posted May 2, 2007, 9:00 PM
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Detroit's MSA in 1990 had 4,382,299 but that was with Monroe County. Monroe County was removed in 2000 when they changed how metros are defined. The comparable area of the 1990 MSA had 4,598,502 in 2000 which is an increase of 216,203. And between 1990 and 2000 the census bureau estimated the Detroit MSA would grow extremely slow, as they are predicting now, but it surpassed all growth estimates.

Also, Detroit's MSA is extremely small compared to most other metros because of it's location on an international border and the census bureau keeping Ann Arbor and Brighton as separate urban areas. In all actuality Detroit's influence spreads into cities such as Adrian (Lenawee Conty), Flint (Genessee County), Jackson (Jackson County), Monroe (Monroe County) and even Toledo and Lansing to a smaller extent right now.

If the three urban areas (Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Brighton) are combined in 2010 this is what Detroit's CSA will include:

DETROIT - 4,965,944 (in 2000)
FLINT - 436,141
ADRIAN - 98,890
JACKSON - 158,422
TOTAL - 5,659,397

So the CSA could reach 6 million by 2010. And with Lansing (400,000) and Toledo (800,000) knocking on the doors that number could reach 7.5+ million by 2020. The commuter exchange rate between the combined Ann Arbor/Detroit MSA and the Lansing MSA was already 9% in 2000 and only 15% is needed to be included in the CSA). And Livingston County, the fastest growing county in the state (increasing 36% between 1990 and 2000), will only increase that number over the years. Toledo is only slightly less but as Ann Arbor continues to become a jobs center the US-23 connection between Toledo and Ann Arbor will most likely increase.

Last edited by hudkina; May 2, 2007 at 9:08 PM.
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  #34  
Old Posted May 2, 2007, 9:18 PM
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Originally Posted by phxazguy View Post
I think that the future "sun strip" (Phoenix/Tucson/Prescott) has a great chance of eventually being up on the list with NYC, LA, and Chitown. Phoenix and Las Vegas are 2 of the fastest growing big cities in the US and could collide in the distant future. There is development planned for the NE part of Arizona near the Grand Canyon that will be up against Laughlin and LV's southern suburbs. The Phoenix "blob" is moving NE to Prescott and if it continues, it could get as far as the Nevada/Arizona border and create a supercity.
Um, putting aside the geographical and topographical barriers to that ever coming close to happening, you do realize there isn't even an interstate linking Las Vegas and Phoenix. If you insist on pigeonholing Las Vegas in to some future megalopolis, it can only happen with LA.
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  #35  
Old Posted May 3, 2007, 1:24 PM
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Atlanta/GA has been fighting the states of AL and FL for over 20 years now in what will probably be a supreme court case over who can control the water flowing out of the GA mountains. No there have been no significant water reservoirs built in that time frame but some are planned depending on the courts, but statistically according to the doom/gloom bunch they won't even touch the surface of what Atlanta needs just today. During that time, Atlanta has faced 2 severe droughts (appears the 3rd has begun) and the population has shot up almost 4 million in past 30 years. However, tech wise the area has continued to 'do more with less' through new reclamation plants and so forth.

I'm just saying water is 70% of the world and as cities advance and tech does the water issue has always been resolved so I wouldn't use that argument to check the astounding growth the west is facing 60 years after the west first heard this same argument. It's an issue but it's not one that can't be addressed and resolved.
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  #36  
Old Posted May 3, 2007, 1:41 PM
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Your southern piedmont also leaves Macon, GA and Columbus, GA out of the statistics. Macon and Atlanta MSA's now touch geographically. While Macon has not had impressive growth rates for the past 40 years, the north end is DEFINITELY beginning to feel the 'pull' of Atlanta and construction is booming along the I-75/475 interstate corridor to Atlanta with office parks, retail, housing and such. (250,000 people now)

Columbus is more distant down I-85/185 but the metro area is only separated from Atlanta by 1 county. That county is about to explode with a Kia plant and all the related factories with an expected 10,000 new jobs over the next decade and be heavily linked to existing factories and distribution facilities in Atlanta and Montgomery along I-85. In addition, Columbus is adding around 40,000 new military personnel though consolidation of existing facilities in the midwest to Columbus over the next few years. They're tons of high tech positions relocating which are supposed to spur assosiciated industries. Also, some of the fastest growing counties in metro Atlanta are south along 85 leading to this part of the state. Columbus could well be swallowed into a greater Atlanta region in the not to distant future I'd bet. (I thing around 250,000 people today as well)

Sorry, maybe those southern dots on the map are Macon and Columbus....not sure.

Anyway, I think there is a true possibility that Chattanooga could become part of the Atlanta MSA in 2010. They now touch borders and the northern growth of Atlanta's suburbs is probably got influences from both metros thus linking them along the I-75 corridor as one mega area. If anything, Atlanta might steal some of the GA counties from Chattanooga if the growth continues along Atlanta's interstates as it has for 50 years so far.
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Last edited by Atlriser; May 3, 2007 at 2:00 PM. Reason: add
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  #37  
Old Posted May 3, 2007, 1:50 PM
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hudkina, I don't think anyone is knocking Detroit so to speak. However, compared to Phoenix almost all stats show Phoenix will be passing lots of existing MSA's over the next 20 years. Phoenix has been challenging Atlanta for several years now for top growth honors and might surpass Atlanta eventually. Who would have thought in 1950 that Atlanta with less then 1 million people would be close to 6 million today and added 1 million new citizens in a little over 6 years time with another couple million projected by 2020. Phoenix is HOT in many ways and Detroit just isn't for the time being is all. That might change but I'm sorry to say I think Phoenix in the long term will become a huge metro just as Atlanta has and will probably be in the top 7 to 10 before long.
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  #38  
Old Posted May 3, 2007, 4:12 PM
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I'm not saying that Phoenix won't grow into a city of 5 or 6 million within the next several decades, I'm just saying that Detroit's metro while slow-growing will continue to grow through "annexation" of adjacent metros rather than raw population growth keeping it on pace with Phoenix. And while Detroit isn't growing as extremely fast as sunbelt cities, it's not dying, nor will it ever die. Boston just recently "added" 2 million people to its metro by absorbing Providence. In the last census Washington added over 2 million people to its metro by absorbing Baltimore. Dallas absorbed Fort Worth, San Francisco absorbed San Jose, Miami absorbed Fort Lauderdale, etc. Detroit will follow suit by absorbing adjacent metros.

Southeast Michigan has a large collection of medium-sized and large cities. Currently they are fractured into several different metros but over the next several decades they will continue to grow together. There are 20 counties in Southeast Michigan and Northern Ohio that are highly connected through commuter rates, television markets, sports teams, and general proximity. Those 20 counties had a population of 6,838,000 in 2000 and included Detroit-Ann Arbor (5 million), Toledo (660,000), Lansing (520,000), Flint (440,000), Jackson (160,000), and Adrian (100,000). In total they cover an area of about 12,100 sq. mi. which is still several thousand square miles smaller than the Phoenix MSA's area of 14,600 sq. mi. or the 14,100 sq. mi. that cover Dallas's current CSA.

By 2010, those twenty counties should have over 7 million people and who knows where they'll be by 2020 or 2030. In any case, Detroit will still be a top metro for decades to come.

Last edited by hudkina; May 3, 2007 at 4:22 PM.
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