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  #41  
Old Posted Jan 7, 2010, 10:33 PM
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Clearly there's a difference between gubernatorial and presidential elections, but to the degree that the 2008 presidential election can inform us of the attitudes of Denver metro voters in this upcoming election, consider:

2008 Presidential Election (left column Obama, right column McCain)

Adams
90,113 62,321

Arapahoe
128,366 100,409

Broomfield
16,031 12,675

Boulder
115,339 41,644

Denver
195,499 60,226

Douglas
51,813 73,225

Jefferson
155,020 129,291
-----------

Total
752,181 479,791
61% 39%


Again, considering Hickenlooper's popularity in Denver and the metro area, if he could rack up numbers even close to these in 2010, and with Pueblo and the ski and college towns kicking in expected victories too, it could be a relatively easy win, IMO.
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  #42  
Old Posted Jan 7, 2010, 10:51 PM
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I moved the posts from the Denver thread concerning politics into this thread.

If it degenerates further into personal attacks I'll just close it.
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  #43  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 12:12 AM
Giovoni Giovoni is offline
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Originally Posted by Denver_Native View Post
It seems that the Republicans are pretty energized right now. This coupled with the President's and congress' low approval ratings translates to sweeping victories for slightly right leaning states like Colorado. I will be very surprised if Ritter and Bennett don't lose by significant margins.
Sorry to disappoint all you girl-friendless, socially inept, constantly blogging, have no life, liberals out there but that is how it's going down this fall.
I don't have a girlfriend .. but I'm thinking a majority of the posters on this thread wouldn't have one even if they had a line of girls waiting for them - which incidentally several of us do. I don't have a life either but that stems more from 3 board certifications and the work that flows from that than anything else and others here have huge job responsibilities which make their work their lives - which also keeps any of us from blogging much. Liberal though.. yeah I'm that. Your post is much more illustrative of why rupublicans are out of power now than anything else. As a liberal I'm tempted to hope that more and more of you continue with this attitude but in the long run it just polarizes everyone and makes it too easy to discount opposing views that may actually have merit.
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  #44  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 3:46 AM
Eeyore Eeyore is offline
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Originally Posted by Giovoni View Post
I don't have a girlfriend .. but I'm thinking a majority of the posters on this thread wouldn't have one even if they had a line of girls waiting for them - which incidentally several of us do. I don't have a life either but that stems more from 3 board certifications and the work that flows from that than anything else and others here have huge job responsibilities which make their work their lives - which also keeps any of us from blogging much. Liberal though.. yeah I'm that. Your post is much more illustrative of why rupublicans are out of power now than anything else. As a liberal I'm tempted to hope that more and more of you continue with this attitude but in the long run it just polarizes everyone and makes it too easy to discount opposing views that may actually have merit.
DAM, I need to go out and get a gf.... Oh wait....... I forgot....... I'm gay......... nevermind.......

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  #45  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 3:51 AM
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Originally Posted by DenverInfill View Post
Clearly there's a difference between gubernatorial and presidential elections, but to the degree that the 2008 presidential election can inform us of the attitudes of Denver metro voters in this upcoming election, consider:

2008 Presidential Election (left column Obama, right column McCain)

Adams
90,113 62,321

Arapahoe
128,366 100,409

Broomfield
16,031 12,675

Boulder
115,339 41,644

Denver
195,499 60,226

Douglas
51,813 73,225

Jefferson
155,020 129,291
-----------

Total
752,181 479,791
61% 39%


Again, considering Hickenlooper's popularity in Denver and the metro area, if he could rack up numbers even close to these in 2010, and with Pueblo and the ski and college towns kicking in expected victories too, it could be a relatively easy win, IMO.
Pueblo County 2008 Election Results
All vote results are Pueblo county's particular votes. If a winner was declared on the overall race, that winner is marked here. That winner may not correspond with how Pueblo voted. Below each race's totals is a link to full results for that race.

Obama : 38,074

Mc Cain: 28,523

As usual my role is to make sure Pueblo is represented, that is ok I am good with that job!
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  #46  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 4:50 AM
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Thanks, Eeyore. We love Pueblo for its solid "Democratic-ness" (at least those of us of that persuasion). But those numbers also reflect Wong's point earlier: statewide races come down to the metro Denver swing counties. Look at Pueblo's 10,000 vote advantage for Obama versus the 82,000 vote advantage in Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson counties.
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  #47  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 5:09 AM
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Originally Posted by DenverInfill View Post
Thanks, Eeyore. We love Pueblo for its solid "Democratic-ness" (at least those of us of that persuasion). But those numbers also reflect Wong's point earlier: statewide races comes down to the metro Denver swing counties. Look at Pueblo's 10,000 vote advantage for Obama versus the 82,000 vote advantage in Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson counties.
I agree Denver is the biggest player, why I call Pueblo "Colorado's Second City" not Colorado's First city. That being said out side of the Denver area Pueblo is the most important demcratic city.

To be honost I am surprised of those numbers. I think they reflect John McCain coming to Pueblo but I could be wrong. I have to see other election numbers to see if it's a trend or a one time thing.
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  #48  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 5:47 AM
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According to Ken's numbers, Boulder would be by FAR the second most important Democratic city outside of Denver. Pueblo would be #3.
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  #49  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 3:51 PM
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^Eeyore doesn't consider Boulder to be outside of Denver.

However, I was curious to see how Larimer County fared:

Larimer County 2008 Election Results:

Obama: 84,461

McCain: 68,932

I believe that Fort Collins increasing population growth, positive migration rates, education levels, and high tech industry are going to result in Larimer becoming a Dem leaning county for the forseeable future. Which would end up making it the most important Democratic city outside of the Denver MSA and it would serve a good role in canceling out Douglas County.
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  #50  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 4:14 PM
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Wong is right, I consider Boulder part of the Denver metro area.

However, this is one reason why I want Pueblo to start growing again, even if its not a utopian city you guys want. If Pueblo stays the same while northern Colorado grows then we will become less relevant in Colorado politics. We don't have to surpass northern Colorado, that will never happen, but if we can at least keep up now that we are growing again then we will keep our power base since we are the largest city and economic hub in southern Colorado.

For example if Pueblo can grow to a modest 250,000 people that combined with our status as the economic center of 16 counties will keep politicians coming to Pueblo for the next 50 years. If we happen to grow more then that is even better.
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  #51  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 4:25 PM
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I'm a little confused by all the talk about counties leaning one way or another. Maybe I am wrong, maybe there is something I don't know, but counties aren't winner-take-all propositions in Colorado. I can understand breaking down congressional districts for obvious reasons. But when you are talking about state-wide elections, isn't it overall popular vote?

The reason I make this distinction is for the sake of strategy. I'm a registered Green, but I caucus with Democrats and have worked a democratic campaign the last four elections (only the 2008 was in Colorado). And if we want the Democratic candidate to win, we can't be ignoring voters in Douglas and El Paso counties just because their percentages trend strongly for the GOP.

These are populous counties that still have a lot of democratic votes that can boost the percentage and, possibility, tip it to the majority in a state-wide race. I bring all this up just to emphasize how important all votes are across the entire state. I appreciate the comfort taken in the demographic shifts in Larimer County and some of Denver's suburbs. But I can't caution enough against the importance of getting democrats to the polls in Colorado Springs.

2008 was a big year for the dems. But 2010 is going to be tough even if they are able to get youth and minorities to the polls like they did in an election that had a lot of historic drama to it. 2010 doesn't have that. It is crazy to think that the GOP, fractured as it seemed after the 2008 election, is actually in amazing shape to gain ground. All of its problems are on the national level. Politics, as we know, is local.

I have my reservations about Hickenlooper. But I don't see anyone else the Democrats could possibly offer. His name-recognition will certainly help, but Denver politicians have a way of galvanizing opposition in rural areas of the state.

To be honest, I think the governor's seat is the GOP's to lose.

Now: I have to do this after almost every post here: Please note that I didn't call anybody any names, was polite and respectful. While you are all free to disagree with me, please do so in a manner that doesn't involve mud-slinging. Cheers.
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  #52  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 4:35 PM
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You are right and I have friends in Colorado Springs who are some of the political leaders for the democrats there and gay pride. Their goal is not to win El Paso county but to minimize the loss so places like Denver and Pueblo can easily make up the difference. That is another reason for Pueblo to grow, if we can balance out the Springs then Denver can balance out the right leaning suburbs and give democrats a better chance of winning in the future.
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  #53  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 4:37 PM
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Ilsaz: I see your point about Denver mayors, but Hickenlooper has been a consensus builder in a way that no other Denver mayor that I've known or heard of in recent history has been. He has worked extremely hard to make sure all the cities of the metro area are included in any long range projects in the city. He really has been doing for years what Obama has been trying (with very little success) at the national level, and this is in a state where republicans can be QUITE radical. His approval ratings have been nearly unbelievable to me through most of his tenure as mayor. Of course all my observations (on every subject on this board actually lol) are from just observations and not professional experience in politics so maybe someone like Pizzuti or other political people that care about the state as a whole (because I can't say that I do with any intellectual honesty) could say if my impressions are likely true.

I think with the huge amount of support he would have in the metro area he is actually one person who COULD afford to ignore other cities in the state and still win (and with some of the attitudes from the smaller cities don’t' think I wouldn't feel a little smugly happy if certain cities were completely ignored). The irony that he absolutely won't do this kind of thing is what has made him so popular in the Denver area.

I'm excited about what he might achieve as governor. I'm particularly curious to see how he would deal with the rabid anti-government crowd in central Colorado which from my sense seems to be turning into a contagion spreading north through Douglas county at the moment.
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  #54  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 4:39 PM
Giovoni Giovoni is offline
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You are right and I have friends in Colorado Springs who are some of the political leaders for the democrats there and gay pride. Their goal is not to win El Paso county but to minimize the loss so places like Denver and Pueblo can easily make up the difference. That is another reason for Pueblo to grow, if we can balance out the Springs then Denver can balance out the right leaning suburbs and give democrats a better chance of winning in the future.
Yeah but if Pueblo grows the way you want it to it will become another republican stronghold. A huge office park/suburb to your north will destroy your democratic majority and make Pueblo as a whole allied with COS and not something that cancels it out. You would just be another Douglas County, another place for Denver to have to outvote for any sort of progressive projects to be approved.
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  #55  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 4:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eeyore View Post
I agree Denver is the biggest player, why I call Pueblo "Colorado's Second City" not Colorado's First city. That being said out side of the Denver area Pueblo is the most important demcratic city.

To be honost I am surprised of those numbers. I think they reflect John McCain coming to Pueblo but I could be wrong. I have to see other election numbers to see if it's a trend or a one time thing.
Don't forget that the Pueblo County results include Pueblo West and quite a lot of rural area. I'm willing to bet that it is skewed towards the Republican camp.
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  #56  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 4:56 PM
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Ilsaz, I agree with your comments. Our "county vs. county" discussion should not be interpreted to represent a GOTV strategy or anything like that. It's just a way of breaking down big numbers into smaller components and, through the cancelling-out method for counties that usually vote in a predictable manner, identify the counties where the "swing" often occurs. But you're right, it is a statewide total and the Dem votes in El Paso are still important to pursue.

Gio, you're right on with your comment about Pueblo. If we want Pueblo to stay blue, we should hope that the 150,000 people that Eeyore wants to move there moves into condos and lofts and infill projects in the existing footprint of the city. Pueblo Springs will simply be a big chunk of COS that will cancel out Pueblo's bluer half.
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  #57  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 5:08 PM
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My first reaction was great a Denver major as governor of the state, then I asked my political insiders in Pueblo and they liked him and said he would be good for Pueblo so that got me thinking. I still need to see him come to Pueblo and speak but as of now I have a open mind.

About Pueblo growing, you make a good point. However, I don't think we could ever be like the Springs, unless Pueblo tried to grow by attracting mega churches and if that happens I would riot. Even if we get the tech park I want combined with the energy park that would still make Pueblo more industrial. I am sure the kind of companies the tech park would attract would work with the ones in the energy park. I do not think Pueblo will attract the kind of high tech companies Denver and northern Colorado does, that would be a complete change in Pueblo's make up and even with the growth of CSU Pueblo I don't see that happening. Even the proposed R&D parks would be more for industries that seem to like Pueblo.

So I think our postion as the states democratic center is safe for the forceable future.
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  #58  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 5:49 PM
Giovoni Giovoni is offline
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My first reaction was great a Denver major as governor of the state, then I asked my political insiders in Pueblo and they liked him and said he would be good for Pueblo so that got me thinking. I still need to see him come to Pueblo and speak but as of now I have a open mind.

About Pueblo growing, you make a good point. However, I don't think we could ever be like the Springs, unless Pueblo tried to grow by attracting mega churches and if that happens I would riot. Even if we get the tech park I want combined with the energy park that would still make Pueblo more industrial. I am sure the kind of companies the tech park would attract would work with the ones in the energy park. I do not think Pueblo will attract the kind of high tech companies Denver and northern Colorado does, that would be a complete change in Pueblo's make up and even with the growth of CSU Pueblo I don't see that happening. Even the proposed R&D parks would be more for industries that seem to like Pueblo.

So I think our postion as the states democratic center is safe for the forceable future.
COS isn't republican because of mega churches. It is RADICALLY, crazily republican because of mega churches. Any suburban city I've ever explored be it Orlando, Phoenix, Atlanta, Dallas, etc tends to be right leaning if not right dominant.. that's pretty much been confirmed by people here who actually study the phenomenon too. Also Doug CO, Highlands Ranch, East Aurora if not all of Aurora.. etc. You don't need to have slobbering, inciteful, bat shit crazy republicans move into your pretty new suburb. All you need is registered republican voters - the kind that this state really doesn't have an abundance of but that would still put the nincompoops just to the north in power. You're right that you wouldn't be COS without the churches.. but you wouldn't be the good city of Pueblo that you are today either.

You seem to cherish your city's role in the democratic party power in this state - even though you exagerate it like a professional wrestling promoter. Whatever the true role is would be gone with Pueblo Springs. And with your geographic location next to COS you would be nothing to most political strategists except a part of some "south central conservative coridor."
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  #59  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 7:02 PM
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I'm pretty liberal. I'm sympathetic to socialism and have been very active in the environmental movement. My interest in urban issues is what brought me to this forum in the first place. That said, I don't think it is fair to characterize republicans as "bat-shit crazy" or use words like "nincompoops" to talk about Republicans or social conservatives.

Just like I mourn the tenor of debate that oftentimes happens in this thread, so too do I mourn the bile that comes from both sides. While I am hard pressed to agree with much in the way of GOP policies, I think it is important to know that a lot of people who vote this way are, actually, decent, hard-working people with often legitimate grievances about the current political situation. I think Republicans ought to be engaged, not marginalized at backwater weirdos.

I'm not saying the GOP isn't guilty of doing the same thing. But if the political landscape in the United States is going to change — and it is going to have to unless you want to see another civil war — it is going to be because of a mutual respect we have for others as human beings.

I'm a big proponent of a lot of rural issues. I spend a lot of time in rural Colorado working with good people who never in a million years would dream of voting the way I vote. But this doesn't change the fact that they are decent human beings.

I hope I am not coming across as quarrelsome. I am certainly alarmed at the megachurch demographic as well. I just like to see more tact in the debate.

Peace and love,
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  #60  
Old Posted Jan 8, 2010, 7:22 PM
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Well put.
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