Halifax Population & Growth

[q12]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Forgive me if this has been dealt with before, but I've noticed something weird in StatCan population numbers for HRM.

Sometimes I see a 2011 census population of about 390,000 cited, and other times I see 409,000.

It's not an enormous difference either way, but that latter table has the population at 398,000 in 2009--two years before the most recent census, and 8,000 persons higher than the 390,000 figure (which, for what it's worth, is the population according to Wikipedia.)

Does anyone know why there are two counts that differ by 20,000 people? And which one is correct?

This is the most recent population estimate, the other number was the census count which apparently a lot of Haligonians did not complete the census.

July 1st 2012 population estimate Halifax: 413,710


http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a03...051-0054&p2=31[/QUOTE]

I would estimate Halifax to be about 418,000 today.

[someone123]

Yeah, the census number the total number of people reported on census forms, while the population estimate is inferred by looking at things like migration rates (which are themselves sampled). The census undercounts can run in the ~3% range and aren't always consistent. Statistics Canada recommends the population estimate as a more accurate current population count. For more detailed demographic information though (languages, transportation modal share, etc.) you have to look at the census.

Here on SSP and in the media in general there's a fair amount of misunderstanding and misuse of stats like these. Most people for example think the census population total must be more accurate than something called an "estimate". Climate statistics tend to be really abused too. It seems like people have a bias in terms of considering quantitative information objective.

[Drybrain]

If I can go totally stats-nerd about this, I wondered how the undercount compared to the other cities. As a percentage of the estimated population, it's a little more than most places, which I guess is good: beating expectations. Undercounts seem to be hovering between 4 to 4.5 percent nationwide. HRM's was about 4.8.

Which is substantial. Approaching a 5 percent differential is huge. Think of a city like Toronto, where the undercount 4.4 per cent--over 250,000.

[someone123]

The undercounts and the relationship between census population count and the population estimate are not necessarily consistent. Some cities had lower estimated populations for 2011 than their census counts.

This has a huge impact on growth rates. If your city has a "true" growth rate of 5% and the undercount grows by 1% from one census to the next, the error in growth rate is more like 20%.

The short-term labour force characteristics probably have a pretty substantial level of error as well. There's a tendency on SSP to compare cities down to 0.1% differences in employment rates but I bet the variance in random sampling is much higher than that. In other words, if city A is at 5% and city B is at 5.1%, the correct interpretation is that they're "the same", not that B is truly better off, because there's a high probability that it isn't.

[fenwick16]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

If I can go totally stats-nerd about this, I wondered how the undercount compared to the other cities. As a percentage of the estimated population, it's a little more than most places, which I guess is good: beating expectations. Undercounts seem to be hovering between 4 to 4.5 percent nationwide. HRM's was about 4.8.

Which is substantial. Approaching a 5 percent differential is huge. Think of a city like Toronto, where the undercount 4.4 per cent--over 250,000.

Here is the undercount data table for provinces and cities for the 2006 census - http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...01_2_2-eng.cfm

I think that the current estimates are still being based on the 2006 census. Although the results from the 2011 census have been published, I don't think the 2011 undercount data has been published yet. There is a related thread here - http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=197571 . It seems to take a couple of years before the most recent census is taken into account in calculating the estimates (the population estimates are considered to be a better indicator of population than the actual census numbers, as it was pointed out by someone123).

[halifaxboyns]

I'd note that in the proposed changes to the Regional Plan (From the RP+5 update) the population projection for HRM by 2031 has been revised upwards from 425,000 to 490,000. I suspect when RP+10 and RP+15 happens, those numbers will be revised upward again.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

I'd note that in the proposed changes to the Regional Plan (From the RP+5 update) the population projection for HRM by 2031 has been revised upwards from 425,000 to 490,000. I suspect when RP+10 and RP+15 happens, those numbers will be revised upward again.

It will be interesting to see if this changes the sense of urgency when it comes to new infrastructure projects, and transportation in particular.

It often felt to me like a lot of councillors had an almost nonchalant attitude towards growth and the need for new infrastructure, as if it was a kind of nice-to-have but that everything would sort itself out anyway. I am not sure how much of this is due to the "not my district" effect (no road project is ever going to be in all districts) and how much of it is due to a perception that there isn't much growth happening.

Irving is starting up their shipyard improvements and one piece is a 500 car parking garage. The choices the city makes now will lay the groundwork for where the 1500 new shipyard workers decide to live and how they will get to work in the future. If there is no new transit, most of those people will end up driving over already congested streets and bridges, and they will move out to greenfield areas and demand all new services (schools, sewage, you name it). The net costs will be much higher than the cost of transit or the cost of up-zoning more of the North End, which is actually negative.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by someone123

Irving is starting up their shipyard improvements and one piece is a 500 car parking garage. The choices the city makes now will lay the groundwork for where the 1500 new shipyard workers decide to live and how they will get to work in the future. If there is no new transit, most of those people will end up driving over already congested streets and bridges, and they will move out to greenfield areas and demand all new services (schools, sewage, you name it). The net costs will be much higher than the cost of transit or the cost of up-zoning more of the North End, which is actually negative.

It is likely that HRM Council and their cronies at the EAC will decry the development of parking at the Shipyard for all sorts of motherhood reasons. But it is equally likely that they will do nothing to fix the transportation problem. "There is a rail line adjacent!!!" they will trumpet - but a line is of no use without the service to run on it, and they have done nothing on that front whatsoever. And if their solution is more diesel buses, we all know that will not work here either until Metro Transit is blown up and redone in a way that doesn't require someone going from A to B to travel by the way of C, D, and E first.

[Drybrain]

Here's something interesting from the National Household Survey data that came out today.

Halifax's visible minority population went from 27,000-ish in 2006 to 35,000-ish in the past five years. That means it's closing in on 10 percent of the population, as compared to 7.4 percent in 2006. (For comparison, it had barely budged in the previous ten years, going up less than one percent.)

There doesn't seem to be any info on whether the province's immigrant retention rate has continued to increase, but that certainly suggests that it has.

[halifaxboyns]

(From CBC Nova Scotia)
Nova Scotia’s population is declining at a time when most provinces are growing, according to Statistics Canada.

The information is contained in the agency's population estimates released Thursday morning.

Population in Nova Scotia
July 1, 2012: 945,061
July 1, 2013: 940,789

The province's population at the end of June was down by half a per cent compared to the same time a year earlier.

That translates into a loss of 4,272 people.

Overall, the Canadian population increased by slightly more than one per cent.

Canada's population is estimated at 35,158,300, an increase of 404,000 over the last year.

[Dmajackson]

HRM issued $751 Million worth of permits in 2013. This is significantly lower then the record set in 2012 however there is some good news. The Urban Core saw 34% of the growth which exceeds the Regional Plan's target of 25%.

[halifaxboyns]

Originally Posted by Dmajackson

HRM issued $751 Million worth of permits in 2013. This is significantly lower then the record set in 2012 however there is some good news. The Urban Core saw 34% of the growth which exceeds the Regional Plan's target of 25%.

It seems to me that the delays with the ships contract are causing some people to second guess jumping into the construction game (likely we will see more projects apply for extensions and sit on the shelf until things pick up).

The Urban Core target is good to see, but keep in mind the target is about the whole life of the regional plan and not just this one point in time (it's an average over 25 years).

[someone123]

StatsCan released new estimates and Nova Scotia's population grew again slightly during the last quarter of 2013. The net loss to Alberta specifically during the quarter was 128 people (670 NS -> AB and 542 from AB -> NS).

The province isn't exactly booming but I think there is way too much doom and gloom in the media. The article I was reading for example was harping on about how employment in NS was only expected to be up by 2,000 this year. This is actually pretty good if the population is staying more or less fixed -- a couple of years of that would result in a low unemployment rate for the province.

You can also make cyclical stuff look good or bad depending on the time window you look at. For example, if the population goes up by 2 on even months and down by 2 during the odd months then you can say that the population was either +2 or -2 depending on which window you pick (two good months or two bad months). This happens all the time with monthly year-over-year statistics that are all over the place. Needless to say, NS tends to take the "glass half full" view.

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

(From CBC Nova Scotia)
Nova Scotia’s population is declining at a time when most provinces are growing, according to Statistics Canada.

The information is contained in the agency's population estimates released Thursday morning.

Population in Nova Scotia
July 1, 2012: 945,061
July 1, 2013: 940,789

The province's population at the end of June was down by half a per cent compared to the same time a year earlier.

That translates into a loss of 4,272 people.

Overall, the Canadian population increased by slightly more than one per cent.

Canada's population is estimated at 35,158,300, an increase of 404,000 over the last year.

[fenwick16]

If Halifax and Nova Scotia are to continue to grow in the future then it will probably have to be through immigration since birth rates in Canada and most of the developed world are declining. Fertility rates are now below the 2.1 births per couple required to maintain population levels (couples and single parents in developed countries usually want smaller families) - http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=35.

The following strategy by the NS government should result in higher international immigration to NS because of the high number of international students at NS universities and colleges. This includes skilled tradesmen taught at the NS Community Colleges.

(source: http://novascotiaimmigration.ca/new-...onal-students/ )

New Immigration Pathway Created for International Students
International graduates now have a route to immigrate to Nova Scotia after changes to the Provincial Nominee Program.

Beginning today, June 6, an international graduate from a Canadian college or university, with a job offer from a Nova Scotia employer, can apply for permanent residency through the nominee program’s Skilled Worker stream.

“This is great news for international students like me who will graduate soon and will be considering their options for what comes next,” said Durgesh Singh, NSCC construction management technology student.

“Now, because of these changes to the Nova Scotia Nominee Program, international graduates will have an avenue to immigrate to Nova Scotia that wasn’t open to them before.”

Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab said international graduates are ideal candidates to immigrate to Nova Scotia.

“International graduates are educated, they’ve made friends, they know the language, and they’re already familiar with all the great things Nova Scotia has to offer,” said Ms. Diab. “Over the past year, there hasn’t been a provincial door open to help them stay. Today, that changes.”

Universities, community colleges and businesses are key to help ensure international students and graduates have information, community contacts and jobs that will make them want to settle and stay in Nova Scotia.

“Government cannot boost immigration alone,” said Ms. Diab. “We are grateful for the support of the many employers, business organizations, connector programs, communities and people across Nova Scotia who work to recruit and retain international graduates who will help enhance our economy and our culture.”

The Halifax Chamber of Commerce welcomes government’s move.

“This policy change aligns well with the chamber’s work, and has the potential to help international students make better connections with employers that could lead to more international graduates choosing to stay in our region,” said Mark Fraser, the chamber’s lead for the skilled workforce task force.

“We believe that if you can help an international student feel like they’re a citizen by building roots in the community, the likelihood of them choosing to stay in our region increases.”

The change will also help colleges and universities attract international students.

“This will improve Nova Scotia’s position as an outstanding education destination in the international marketplace, and our ability to attract those students to institutions and communities across the province,” said George Cooper, University of King’s College president and member of the Council of Nova Scotia University Presidents.

“Our universities commend government for taking this decisive action, and we look forward to working with government and others across Nova Scotia to explore and act upon the enormous potential of universities to attract and retain top talent to our province.”

The Nova Scotia Office of Immigration negotiated the change with Citizenship and Immigration Canada. Through the Nova Scotia Nominee Program, the province can nominate potential immigrants, but Citizenship and Immigration Canada makes the final decision.

The Skilled Worker stream helps employers recruit and hire foreign workers for positions they have not been able to fill with permanent residents or Canadian citizens.

Posted on Friday, June 6th, 2014 - See more at: http://novascotiaimmigration.ca/new-....goYxszRZ.dpuf

[ILoveHalifax]

Very interesting. I think our provincial government should also be helping to develop 'cultural centers' for immigrants from the various countries.
I read recently that immigrants often feel disconnected from their own culture and people, in Halifax, because of our small size. This would give added support and possibly eliminate the need to go west to find a community.

[Colin May]

After 4 years of surpluses under Peter Kelly, HRM under Mayor Savage has recorded an operating deficit ( General Rate deficit) of $232,000 for the year ending March 31 2014.

Operating surpluses under Mayor Kelly were :

2009/10 - $3.29 million
2010/11 - $2.4 million
2011/12 - $17.8 million
2012/13 - $15.9 million

The audited financial statements will be before the Audit & Finance Committee on June 18 2014

More details by scrolling down to Attachment 2 General Rate Surplus :
http://www.halifax.ca/boardscom/SCfi...618afsc911.pdf

Added on June 14 : -
If you read the Herald today you will see the headline " Halifax posts surplus of $6m ". This is not the case, although I am sure Mayor Savage and Richard Butts are quite happy to see such a headline.
The key measure in determining a municipal surplus or deficit is the section of the report entitled " Statement of the General Rate Surplus ". This audited information was not available prior to the audited statements for the year 2009/10. Prior to amalgamation the surplus/deficit was a major news story.

CAO Richard Butts salary :

2011/2012 : $289,000
2012/2013 : $309,000
2013/2014 : $322,000

CAO Dan English salary 2009/2010 : $201,000

[halifaxboyns]

The CAO's salary seems pretty high for such a small Municipality. I hope they aren't taking the same road as all the scandal that's hitting the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (Fort McMurray) that saw their CAO resign - he was the highest paid City Manager in all of North America (over $500,000) according to media reports. Considering that the Director's top around $180k - that's a huge gap.

[fenwick16]

Originally Posted by Colin May

CAO Richard Butts salary :

2011/2012 : $289,000
2012/2013 : $309,000
2013/2014 : $322,000

CAO Dan English salary 2009/2010 : $201,000

I think that he is doing a good job. Considering the bad reputation that HRM had for treating CAO's and keeping them, I think that a higher salary was necessary to get a suitable person for the job.

Where did you get the salary numbers - was it from the published municipal budgets?

[Waye Mason]

Originally Posted by Colin May

After 4 years of surpluses under Peter Kelly, HRM under Mayor Savage has recorded an operating deficit ( General Rate deficit) of $232,000 for the year ending March 31 2014.

This is not really correct, is it. The general rate surplus or deficit is not the operating surplus or deficit. The municipality has other revenue in addition to the rate, including parking, ticket, encroachment fee, application fee, deed transfer tax. The municipality did spend abut 6 million less than it budgeted.

It is correct to say there was a general rate deficit. It is not correct to say there is an operating deficit.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

The CAO's salary seems pretty high for such a small Municipality. I hope they aren't taking the same road as all the scandal that's hitting the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (Fort McMurray) that saw their CAO resign - he was the highest paid City Manager in all of North America (over $500,000) according to media reports. Considering that the Director's top around $180k - that's a huge gap.

CAO Richard Butts salary :

2011/2012 : $289,000
2012/2013 : $309,000
2013/2014 : $322,000

CAO Dan English salary 2009/2010 : $201,000

This is just symptomatic of HRM's ballooning staffing numbers and them spending like drunken sailors. HRM hasn't seen anyone they couldn't hire at an overly-inflated salary. The problem with English and his predecessors wasn't their pay grade; it was the doofus mayor and council who kept injecting themselves into staff decisions.

Maybe Mr, Butts has a poison pill in his contract that makes it too expensive for them to fire him without cause. English "retired" in the middle of a performance review that likely wasn't pretty given him speaking out against the mayor and some council members.