Who will replace Harper?

[Loco101]

I forgot to mention that John Baird would be someone who could reach out to more progressive-type conservatives. He is fiscally conservative but quite socially liberal. Something that can go over well in Ontario. I was actually disappointed that he didn't run for the leadership of the Ontario PC party. he was a cabinet minister when Mike Harris was Premier. But I could see him wanting to lead the federal CPC.

Baird was actually great for standing up for human rights of all kinds. I believe I have read that he has a same-sex partner. That would be a major shift for the CPC alone if he were to become leader.

I always found Baird to be hilarious and quite a performer when asking or answering questions in the House of Commons or at Queen's Park. He had a sense of humour that very few conservatives had. I have a cousin who lived in the same house as him while attending Queen's University. He was even known as "Rusty" back then and was quite the character.

[JHikka]

Wall, Raitt, Lord...in that order right now.

Really depends on how election night goes tomorrow. Harper may be stepping down ASAP if they don't have government (Or, from what he's said, if they don't have a Majority). Wall would be out of the running as he has an election in Saskatchewan upcoming. I'd expect Kenney to go for it right from the gates, but he's more polarizing a figure than Harper is. McKay's name is always bounced around but it seems unlikely right now. Same for Baird. Prentice officially never going to happen at this point.

[Loco101]

How appealing would Brad Wall be to Ontarians and Quebeckers? I've never heard him speak French either.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I forgot to mention that John Baird would be someone who could reach out to more progressive-type conservatives. He is fiscally conservative but quite socially liberal. Something that can go over well in Ontario. I was actually disappointed that he didn't run for the leadership of the Ontario PC party. he was a cabinet minister when Mike Harris was Premier. But I could see him wanting to lead the federal CPC.

Baird was actually great for standing up for human rights of all kinds. I believe I have read that he has a same-sex partner. That would be a major shift for the CPC alone if he were to become leader.

I always found Baird to be hilarious and quite a performer when asking or answering questions in the House of Commons or at Queen's Park. He had a sense of humour that very few conservatives had. I have a cousin who lived in the same house as him while attending Queen's University. He was even known as "Rusty" back then and was quite the character.

I'd be surprised if Baird came back. He was never the brightest bulb in the string (although by no means the worst), but more importantly I don't see him as hard-working enough to be PM.

[CCF]

Originally Posted by Loco101

How appealing would Brad Wall be to Ontarians and Quebeckers? I've never heard him speak French either.

Well....I can think of one in Quebec who likely wouldn't vote for Wall.

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/pauline-m...eaky-1.1745543

[MolsonExport]

Dofo or Rofo. Tweedledumb or Tweedledumber.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by CCF

Well....I can think of one in Quebec who likely wouldn't vote for Wall.

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/pauline-m...eaky-1.1745543

Wasn't it Wall who found himself isolated wrt energy at the last Premiers bunfest? I recall that he came across as a bit curmudgeonly, although I imagine he was ably defending Saskatchewan's interests.

[wg_flamip]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

They need someone who can reach to the more PC voters without alienating the Reform base. If the Reform Party revives, the Liberals are in government indefinitely.

The Conservatives should choose a moderate to replace Harper, but I doubt they will. I think we're more likely to see a replay of the PC leadership race here in Ontario: there will be a strong moderate with old guard support (someone like MacKay, maybe) who appears at first to have it in the bag, but is then challenged by a (relatively) fringe candidate who riles up the base and ultimately wins. We see the same thing going on in the American race for the Republican nomination - the populist right across the continent doesn't want to tone it down*, even if that places victory out of reach (we could, perhaps, read the split on the right in Alberta the same way, but there are many complicating factors at play there).

If the Conservatives veer right post-Harper, I'd imagine we'll just see the rightward trend of all parties over the past decade or two continue: the Liberals will increasingly move in on Red Tory territory, the NDP will drift further towards the centre**, and the Greens will take up the left-leaning "conscience of Parliament" role.

Of course, if some form of electoral reform happens, we're all going to have to re-examine our assumptions moving into the future. We may need up to a decade to establish a "new normal" in that case.

*(I'm not suggesting the old Reformers are in any way as out-to-lunch as the Tea Party types in the US. This isn't an apples-to-apples comparison really, but there are some similarities in the dynamics at work here.)

**(Don't forget that the NDP are unlikely to collapse to the levels of support they saw in the 1990s any time soon, even if they do lose a substantial chunk seats this time around. I don't think we can count them out completely moving forward, just as it was foolish to count out the Liberals post-2011.)

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by wg_flamip

The Conservatives should choose a moderate to replace Harper, but I doubt they will. I think we're more likely to see a replay of the PC leadership race here in Ontario: there will be a strong moderate with old guard support (someone like MacKay, maybe) who appears at first to have it in the bag, but is then challenged by a (relatively) fringe candidate who riles up the base and ultimately wins. We see the same thing going on in the American race for the Republican nomination - the populist right across the continent doesn't want to tone it down*, even if that places victory out of reach (we could, perhaps, read the split on the right in Alberta the same way, but there are many complicating factors at play there).

If the Conservatives veer right post-Harper, I'd imagine we'll just see the rightward trend of all parties over the past decade or two continue: the Liberals will increasingly move in on Red Tory territory, the NDP will drift further towards the centre**, and the Greens will take up the left-leaning "conscience of Parliament" role.

Of course, if some form of electoral reform happens, we're all going to have to re-examine our assumptions moving into the future. We may need up to a decade to establish a "new normal" in that case.

*(I'm not suggesting the old Reformers are in any way as out-to-lunch as the Tea Party types in the US. This isn't an apples-to-apples comparison really, but there are some similarities in the dynamics at work here.)

**(Don't forget that the NDP are unlikely to collapse to the levels of support they saw in the 1990s any time soon, even if they do lose a substantial chunk seats this time around. I don't think we can count them out completely moving forward, just as it was foolish to count out the Liberals post-2011.)

Surely if there is any lesson for the NDP in this election, it's that they need to swing back to become the clear alternative on the left. Mulcair's mushy middle approach has led to the Liberals eating their lunch in much of the country.

[CCF]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Wasn't it Wall who found himself isolated wrt energy at the last Premiers bunfest? I recall that he came across as a bit curmudgeonly, although I imagine he was ably defending Saskatchewan's interests.

You got it.

If I have one major criticism of Wall (not unlike Harper) too little has been done to diversify Saskatchewan's economy. As a largely resource based economy where is the drive to diversify the economy. The reserves of commodities are finite, and the demand may be even shorter lived.

Times are relatively good in Saskatchewan - start directing a portion of the revenues from oil and gas, potash, and uranium to strengthen other sectors of the economy. Instead the Saskatchewan Party has given little consideration to this and instead undercuts other industries (i.e. Film).

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Where is Brad Wall on social issues. The party has got to become more socially liberal if it is ever to gain support from progressive Ontario and Quebec. If he is seen as another socially Conservative Westerner then his chances of getting elected are zero.

As for Dianne Watts I think she has far more pressing concerns and reaching for the leadership of the party is the last thing on her mind right now. Currently WR/SS is leaning heavily Liberal and she probably won't even survive this election.

Harper won over Ontario in a big way in 2011. If it wasn't for some cultural policies they could have done well in Quebec too, they won 25% of the vote there in 2006.

As well, for the most part Harper has led a pretty moderate government when it comes to social issues.

[Tfreder]

What about Rona Ambrose? I doubt she would ever try to run, or if the Conservatives would even want her to run, but it would definitely be entertaining to watch that train-wreck unfold.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Tfreder

What about Rona Ambrose? I doubt she would ever try to run, or if the Conservatives would even want her to run, but it would definitely be entertaining to watch that train-wreck unfold.

Why would it be a train-wreck? Ambrose definitely had issues early on in her ministerial career but has been seen as a solid performer over the last number of years. When Harper was getting ready to shuffle his cabinet in 2013 many pundits predicted Ambrose would be promoted after her performance at public works. I do think some of her stances - like her position on medical marijuana - have been ridiculous but I don't see it as a major issue for her.

[flar]

Baird is not an option for the Conservatives, as they would lose all their redneck ridings in Alberta and Ontario.

[Tfreder]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Why would it be a train-wreck? Ambrose definitely had issues early on in her ministerial career but has been seen as a solid performer over the last number of years. When Harper was getting ready to shuffle his cabinet in 2013 many pundits predicted Ambrose would be promoted after her performance at public works. I do think some of her stances - like her position on medical marijuana - have been ridiculous but I don't see it as a major issue for her.

I may have misspoken a bit. I don't think she would be a bad PM necessarily (and I do agree with her stances on some issues), but as we're watching Conservative support decline during this election, I believe they need to try and widen their appeal again. I'm not entirely sure where she falls onto the political spectrum, but I'm assuming she's to the far right due to her stances on marijuana and abortion. Like others have mentioned, this is the time for the Conservatives to appear more moderate; I don't believe Ambrose would be able to gain support for the party if she were the leader.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Why would it be a train-wreck? Ambrose definitely had issues early on in her ministerial career but has been seen as a solid performer over the last number of years. When Harper was getting ready to shuffle his cabinet in 2013 many pundits predicted Ambrose would be promoted after her performance at public works. I do think some of her stances - like her position on medical marijuana - have been ridiculous but I don't see it as a major issue for her.

Surely the recent ruling of the Federal Court puts an end to her political ambitions. Putting political expediency above the law doesn't look good on a leadership candidate.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by wg_flamip

The Conservatives should choose a moderate to replace Harper, but I doubt they will. I think we're more likely to see a replay of the PC leadership race here in Ontario: there will be a strong moderate with old guard support (someone like MacKay, maybe) who appears at first to have it in the bag, but is then challenged by a (relatively) fringe candidate who riles up the base and ultimately wins. We see the same thing going on in the American race for the Republican nomination - the populist right across the continent doesn't want to tone it down*, even if that places victory out of reach (we could, perhaps, read the split on the right in Alberta the same way, but there are many complicating factors at play there).

If the Conservatives veer right post-Harper, I'd imagine we'll just see the rightward trend of all parties over the past decade or two continue: the Liberals will increasingly move in on Red Tory territory, the NDP will drift further towards the centre**, and the Greens will take up the left-leaning "conscience of Parliament" role.

Of course, if some form of electoral reform happens, we're all going to have to re-examine our assumptions moving into the future. We may need up to a decade to establish a "new normal" in that case.

*(I'm not suggesting the old Reformers are in any way as out-to-lunch as the Tea Party types in the US. This isn't an apples-to-apples comparison really, but there are some similarities in the dynamics at work here.)

**(Don't forget that the NDP are unlikely to collapse to the levels of support they saw in the 1990s any time soon, even if they do lose a substantial chunk seats this time around. I don't think we can count them out completely moving forward, just as it was foolish to count out the Liberals post-2011.)

Excellent assessment! I agree with everything you wrote.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

Harper won over Ontario in a big way in 2011. If it wasn't for some cultural policies they could have done well in Quebec too, they won 25% of the vote there in 2006.

As well, for the most part Harper has led a pretty moderate government when it comes to social issues.

The only reason why the CPC got 25% in 2006 in Quebec was because many Liberal (and federalist) supporters hated the LPC after the sponsorship scandal and voted for another federalist party. Even though Layton was leader of the NDP, the party wasn't considered to be a serious choice in the province at that time.

I don't think the CPC in its current state would ever do any better in Quebec. The party would need somebody like an updated version of Brian Mulroney.

And btw, Harper didn't win over Ontarians as a whole but did win the most seats in 2011. You will see how soft his support has been tomorrow night as many of the CPC MPs will have only served one term. Here in Northern Ontario, Harper is very unpopular and always has been. I'm pretty sure the 3 Northern Ontario CPC MPs will be turfed as most people in those ridings felt that the conservatives were bad for our region.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Tfreder

What about Rona Ambrose? I doubt she would ever try to run, or if the Conservatives would even want her to run, but it would definitely be entertaining to watch that train-wreck unfold.

It would be quite comical to watch her try. Most Canadians don't really know who she is because Harper kept her pretty silenced.

[PoscStudent]

It's also possible that a lesser known candidate enters the race and wins over the party. Greg Rickford and Erin O'Toole - two ministers from Ontario - have interesting backgrounds and both have been capable ministers. O'Toole hasn't been an MP for long but has quickly moved up the ranks and has done good work at Veteran's Affairs. Jean Charest did not have a whole lot of cabinet experience and was only 35 years old when he early beat out Kim Campbell for the leadership of the PC Party.

Originally Posted by Loco101

The only reason why the CPC got 25% in 2006 in Quebec was because many Liberal (and federalist) supporters hated the LPC after the sponsorship scandal and voted for another federalist party. Even though Layton was leader of the NDP, the party wasn't considered to be a serious choice in the province at that time.

I don't think the CPC in its current state would ever do any better in Quebec. The party would need somebody like an updated version of Brian Mulroney.

And btw, Harper didn't win over Ontarians as a whole but did win the most seats in 2011. You will see how soft his support has been tomorrow night as many of the CPC MPs will have only served one term. Here in Northern Ontario, Harper is very unpopular and always has been. I'm pretty sure the 3 Northern Ontario CPC MPs will be turfed as most people in those ridings felt that the conservatives were bad for our region.

The Conservatives won 44% of the vote which is a pretty good showing in a three party system.