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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 3:37 PM
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Census Bureau Releases July 1 '06 County Pop. Estimates

The Census Bureau has just released the latest county-based population estimates, with a reference date of July 1, 2006. You can access the data here:
http://www.census.gov/popest/countie...ST2006-01.html

So, if you know the components of your area's MSA and/or CSA, you can now calculate the population estimate for July, 2006. I'll start with Atlanta.

Atlanta Sandy Springs Marietta MSA 2000: 4,281,616 / 2006: 5,138,223

The Atlanta CSA adds the Gainesville, GA MSA, and the micropolitan areas of Cedartown, GA, LaGrange, GA, Thomaston, GA, and Valley, AL:

Atlanta Sandy Springs Gainesville CSA 2000: 4,583,958 / 2006: 5,478,667

As is readily apparent from the above numbers, the Atlanta MSA and CSA are continuing with relentless and astonishing growth so far this decade, with the CSA adding nearly 900,000 people in the last 6 years. The Census Bureau noted that, in the 2000 through 2006 period, Georgia had 14 of the nation's 100 fastest-growing counties, leading the nation in that number, and three of the top 10.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 3:52 PM
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Phoenix MSA: 4,039,182
Maricopa County: 3,768,123
Pinal County: 271,059

Raw growth in Maricopa County alone has been between 93K-140K every year since 2000. Scary.

Pinal County added 12.9% to its population in just the past year!
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 4:23 PM
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Of all the Sunbelt boomers, Atlanta and environs is always the biggest mystery to me. Cities in Florida, Arizona, even Texas make sense (beach, warmth, golf, etc.). Atlanta is more of a head-scratcher. Inland location, far from ideal weather, high crime, crazy commutes, etc.

The two obvious draws would be 1. Easy to get a job and 2. Relatively cheap new homes in exurbs, except Atlanta does not appear to have lower unemployment rates or cheaper homes than from many of the regions from which it draws.

The strangest part of the Atlanta allure (and this extends to Charlotte) is the black mythology of these places as promised lands. Suddenly the North Carolina of Jesse Helms and the Georgia of Sonny Perdue are supposed meccas for progressive blacks (and Sonny's the governor RIGHT NOW and won basically for his support of the confederate flag).

I once heard a black secretary at my dad's office in suburban Detroit say she was moving from a nice middle-class Detroit suburb to the southern suburbs of Atlanta for the safety, schools and lack of congestion. There is absolutely no data to support the notion that suburban Atlanta would be a solid choice over suburban Detroit for safety, schools or congestion. If anything, there should be a flood in the opposite direction, from emerging ghettohoods in South DeKalb and South Fulton counties (Atlanta) to the Northeast and Midwest.

It's amazing how good PR can influence relocation decisions more than hard statistics.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 4:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Of all the Sunbelt boomers, Atlanta and environs is always the biggest mystery to me. Cities in Florida, Arizona, even Texas make sense (beach, warmth, golf, etc.). Atlanta is more of a head-scratcher. Inland location, far from ideal weather, high crime, crazy commutes, etc.

The two obvious draws would be 1. Easy to get a job and 2. Relatively cheap new homes in exurbs, except Atlanta does not appear to have lower unemployment rates or cheaper homes than from many of the regions from which it draws.

The strangest part of the Atlanta allure (and this extends to Charlotte) is the black mythology of these places as promised lands. Suddenly the North Carolina of Jesse Helms and the Georgia of Sonny Perdue are supposed meccas for progressive blacks (and Sonny's the governor RIGHT NOW and won basically for his support of the confederate flag).

I once heard a black secretary at my dad's office in suburban Detroit say she was moving from a nice middle-class Detroit suburb to the southern suburbs of Atlanta for the safety, schools and lack of congestion. There is absolutely no data to support the notion that suburban Atlanta would be a solid choice over suburban Detroit for safety, schools or congestion. If anything, there should be a flood in the opposite direction, from emerging ghettohoods in South DeKalb and South Fulton counties (Atlanta) to the Northeast and Midwest.

It's amazing how good PR can influence relocation decisions more than hard statistics.
It's quite obvious that you don't know what you're talking about.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 4:44 PM
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^
Thanks for the informed reply. Going forward, I'll be sure to ignore hard data and instead rely on media hype and PR razzle dazzle.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 4:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Of all the Sunbelt boomers, Atlanta and environs is always the biggest mystery to me. Cities in Florida, Arizona, even Texas make sense (beach, warmth, golf, etc.). Atlanta is more of a head-scratcher. Inland location, far from ideal weather, high crime, crazy commutes, etc.

The two obvious draws would be 1. Easy to get a job and 2. Relatively cheap new homes in exurbs, except Atlanta does not appear to have lower unemployment rates or cheaper homes than from many of the regions from which it draws.

The strangest part of the Atlanta allure (and this extends to Charlotte) is the black mythology of these places as promised lands. Suddenly the North Carolina of Jesse Helms and the Georgia of Sonny Perdue are supposed meccas for progressive blacks (and Sonny's the governor RIGHT NOW and won basically for his support of the confederate flag).

I once heard a black secretary at my dad's office in suburban Detroit say she was moving from a nice middle-class Detroit suburb to the southern suburbs of Atlanta for the safety, schools and lack of congestion. There is absolutely no data to support the notion that suburban Atlanta would be a solid choice over suburban Detroit for safety, schools or congestion. If anything, there should be a flood in the opposite direction, from emerging ghettohoods in South DeKalb and South Fulton counties (Atlanta) to the Northeast and Midwest.

It's amazing how good PR can influence relocation decisions more than hard statistics.
that's an interesting observation...I've wondered that too. The Bay Area(And California for that matter) is hemorraging blacks left and right and I suspect a huge chunk are headed to the south. I suspect (far)lower housing costs is the primary reason.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 4:55 PM
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Crawford, Atlanta is in the Piedmont region of the Appalachians, with an average elevation of about 1000 feet, and it has a far more desirable climate than most of the deep South as a result. Many folks prefer four distinct seasons, and Atlanta does not have the stifling heat of Texas or Florida (since "warmth" was one of your criteria citing those other locales). In fact, droves of folks from Florida (former northerners) are moving halfway back and settling in North Georgia and the Carolinas. This phenomenon is referred to as the "halfbacks". The Atlanta metro, and the City of Atlanta in particular, have seen rapidly declining crime for some time now, so your crime comment is ill-informed. Atlantan's are a short drive from either mountains or the beach. Golf?? plenty of that here too, Crawford, including several of the country's most celebrated courses. And, as is widely known, the Atlanta metro does indeed have one of the nation's most affluent, influential and thriving African American communities. Maybe your prior post seemed so filled with inaccuracies and generalities that the subsequent poster didn't even know where to start! But I digress...please let's get the thread back on track and discuss the new census pop. estimates.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 4:58 PM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
that's an interesting observation...I've wondered that too. The Bay Area(And California for that matter) is hemorraging blacks left and right and I suspect a huge chunk are headed to the south. I suspect (far)lower housing costs is the primary reason.
I'd agree that Atlanta has big cost advantages over places like California, but what about Atlanta's draw in cheaper places like Baltimore, Detroit, etc.? Yes, these cities have huge urban problems, but the suburbs of Detroit are no different from suburbs anywhere else and they are CHEAP with good schools and low congestion.

If you look at the data, Atlanta has very high crime and congestion numbers and below-average schools. At the same time, people are moving to Atlanta based on these criteria.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:03 PM
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Supposedly cook county is losing tons of people to surrounding chicagoland counties. I find this trend disturbing, if its true that is. Because the neighborhoods surrounding downtown are certainly growing, which means that much more people are leaving the other areas in chicago. Not good.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:12 PM
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I hope this latest estimate is enough to put Los Angeles over the top.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:12 PM
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Well look how wrong they were last time. Cook Country had estimates to do horrible, and surprise surprise grew by 250,000 people.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:15 PM
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Well look how wrong they were last time. Cook Country had estimates to do horrible, and surprise surprise grew by 250,000 people.

the 2000 census, when they actually counted instead of guessing, showed that they were short by 400,000 in previous estimates of the Bay Area's population-I would take these estimates with a grain of salt.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plinko View Post
Phoenix MSA: 4,039,182
Maricopa County: 3,768,123
Pinal County: 271,059

Raw growth in Maricopa County alone has been between 93K-140K every year since 2000. Scary.

Pinal County added 12.9% to its population in just the past year!
Yeah, the Phoenix metro growth is equally as amazing as Atlanta's.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plinko View Post
Phoenix MSA: 4,039,182
Maricopa County: 3,768,123
Pinal County: 271,059

Raw growth in Maricopa County alone has been between 93K-140K every year since 2000. Scary.

Pinal County added 12.9% to its population in just the past year!
Plinko, realistically they ought to start adding Yavapai County (Prescott/Prescott Valley) to the Phoenix MSA as well. That would bump the total to 4,247,196.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:22 PM
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according to the estimates the Miami Metro is now 5.46 Million adding only 39K people. The state is projected to have gained 322k with Lee County (Fort Myers) topping the list with 27k. Pinellas (St. Pete) is on the bottom losing over 2,000 people.

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach MSA
Miami-Dade 2,402,208 24,483 (change since 2005 est)
Broward 1,787,636 5,620
Palm Beach 1,274,013 9,057
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:25 PM
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South Central PA:
Adams: 101,105
Cumberland: 226, 117
Dauphin: 254,176
Franklin: 139,991
Lancaster: 494,486
Lebanon: 126,883
Perry: 45,087
York:416,322

Total: 1,804,176

Of course South Central PA won't ever be one metro probably for some time. If anything, the only county we'd lose would be Franklin, to the DC metro.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:25 PM
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Chicagoland

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Roboto View Post
Supposedly cook county is losing tons of people to surrounding chicagoland counties. I find this trend disturbing, if its true that is. Because the neighborhoods surrounding downtown are certainly growing, which means that much more people are leaving the other areas in chicago. Not good.
Not necessarily. The estimated loss in population in cook co is about 1.5% which is actually around 0 growth if accouting for the marign of error. The collar counties are growing at the rate of the sunbelt cities so the region is growing fairly rapidly and doing well economically. Lake county, for example, grew about 10% and Will county grew 29%. Both are at around 700k now making each more populous than atlanta, tampa, and raleigh city limits. Those areas will have no choice but to get denser and aleviate congestion with mass transit. I know both Kane and Lake have allocated most of their existing land to wild life preserves and there's a lot of denser transit oriented growth going on in both counties as a result.

The shrinking areas in cook county are in the impoverished southern portion of the county (places like markham, robbins, harvey, etc.) that are far from desirable. Robbins, for example, is losing about 4% a year. I personally see this as a good thing. The last thing I want to see is impoverished portions of the county experiencing growth while staying impoverished. The best thing that can happen for a lot of those places is a clean slate.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:27 PM
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Originally Posted by brickell View Post
according to the estimates the Miami Metro is now 5.46 Million adding only 39K people. The state is projected to have gained 322k with Lee County (Fort Myers) topping the list with 27k. Pinellas (St. Pete) is on the bottom losing over 2,000 people.

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach MSA
Miami-Dade 2,402,208 24,483 (change since 2005 est)
Broward 1,787,636 5,620
Palm Beach 1,274,013 9,057
That's interesting. Miami doesn't have a corresponding CSA (it's the largest metro in the country without one) and it's MSA is still larger than the Atlanta MSA, but it now appears, at least based on the census bureau estimates, that Atlanta's CSA has passed the Miami MSA.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:28 PM
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Cook County........ 5,288,655
DeKalb County........ 100,139
DuPage County........ 932,670
Grundy County........ 45,828
Kane County........ 493,735
Kankakee County........ 109,090
Kendall County........ 88,158
Lake County........ 713,076
McHenry County........ 312,373
Will County........ 668,217
Kenosha County........ 162,001
Lake County........ 494,202
LaPorte County........ 110,479
Porter County........ 160,105
Jasper County........ 32,296
Newton County........ 14,293

Chicagoland: 9,725,317

Growth of 412,763, although it would be been exactly 500,000 if they didn't predict Cook County to lose so many people.
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Old Posted Mar 22, 2007, 5:32 PM
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^ something funny....

I took their growth estimates and divided them by 6, then multiplied by 10 to get the 2000 to 2010 change for Chicagoland.

In 2010 the Census bureau is estimating that Chicagoland will have....

10,000,492 people. Talk about cutting it close
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