.....again if you do basic math on the figure below that the Province will grow by 220,000 people by the year 2020 - approx 70% go to the greater Winnipeg area = 154,000. So by 2020 if you figure the Winnipeg area already has 750,000 + 150,000 = 900,000 in ten years.
Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Preschoolers to help boost population
Manitoba to be home to 1.4M folks by 2020
By: Larry Kusch
30/03/2010 1:00 AM | Comments: 0
MANITOBA is projected to have 1.4 million people by 2020 -- 220,000 more than in 2009 -- due in part to a surprisingly large increase in preschool children.
Last year, Manitoba enjoyed its highest rate of population growth -- 1.4 per cent or 16,400 people -- since at least 1971.
But the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, in a report to be released today, predicts even higher growth in 2010 and expects sustained high population growth, averaging 1.6 per cent, over the next 11 years.
Immigration will continue to play a lead role in Manitoba's increasing population in the years ahead, the bureau predicts.
Last year, Manitoba had a net gain of nearly 12,000 people from other countries, while its 15,839 births were the highest since 1995. High immigration, a fairly high fertility rate and relatively low net losses to other provinces are expected to spur growth well into the next decade, said Wilf Falk, chief of the statistics bureau.
The one thing that might slow down this growth is a shortage of housing, he said. When Manitoba was losing 3,000 to 8,000 people a year to other provinces, immigrants were essentially filling the vacated homes. But now that the province is only expected to lose about 1,500 a year to other provinces, there will be more demand for housing.
"What comes first? Do we build the housing and then the people come or do we build the housing after the people come?" Falk said Monday. "If we don't have the housing built, that may retard our ability to bring in these individuals."
Population projections are valuable to government in setting policies regarding health, education, labour participation, services to seniors, and a host of other issues.
Businesses use such figures to determine whether there will be shortages of workers and what products might be hot down the road.
The 82-page study looks as far ahead as 2041, when Manitoba is projected to have nearly two million people.
However, it's difficult to make accurate predictions that far into the future -- more reliable is looking ahead one decade to 2020.
Provincial officials believe the number of preschoolers (age 4 and under) will rise nearly 28 per cent between now and 2020. The only faster-growing group will be those 65 and over.
Even there, Falk said, the news is encouraging.
While the number of seniors will grow by 34.4 per cent in the next 11 years, the largest growth will be within those aged 65 to 74, while the percentage of those 75 to 84 years old will drop and the proportion 85 and over will remain constant.
"There have been stories that they're healthier, on average, than the previous seniors," Falk said, of the so-called "young seniors."
"So if that is true, then maybe their attachment to the health-care system may be less than their predecessors."
Given that the percentage of older seniors will drop or stay the same, he added, "then maybe some of these predictions of doom and gloom may not be as bad for Manitoba."
larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca
What to expect, people
Here is a sneak peek at what Manitoba will look like on the province's 150th birthday in 2020:
Population is expected to be about 1.44 million, an increase of 221,000 since 2009.
Manitobans should be younger on average than today. The median age will be 37.5 years, down from 37.8 years in 2009.
The preschool population, aged 0 to 4, is projected to increase by 21,000, or 27.8 per cent, from 2009 to 2020.
The school-age population will rise 15.6 per cent or by nearly 33,000. However, within this group, those in Grade 10 to 12 will only increase by about 3,800 people or 3.6 per cent from 2009.
Those aged 18 to 24 should also see one of the lowest increases over the 11-year period -- 0.5 per cent a year -- or a total growth of only 6,000 people.
The potential labour force, aged 15 to 64, is expected to grow by 13.4 per cent compared with 2009.
The number of people 65 and over is expected to increase by some 58,000 individuals -- or 34.4 per cent -- from 2009.
There will be more older males than in the past as male life expectancy rises. In 2020, the ratio of 70-plus females to 70-plus males will be about 1.25 to one, compared with 1.38 to one in 2009.
-- Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition March 30, 2010 A4