Under the Radar: Darkhorse small cities that could one day be very big

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by someone123

I guess. I never said I think Halifax is a "hub" either. My wider point is that the geography of the Maritimes is such that the notion of a hub is a lot weaker than it is in some other places. Somebody from a pancake-flat Midwestern state might get the wrong impression from that visualization.

As far as Moncton goes I think the railway routing was important way back when, but the transportation links are less of a driving force for economic growth now. Good connections are necessary but not sufficient. Moncton pulled ahead, arguably, because it didn't have the legacy blue collar industries in Saint John and because of its bilingualism advantage. Beyond the call centre type jobs, I think it got more in the way of postsecondary and healthcare institutions than it would have without the Francophone population. Francophones are also more likely to stick around in Eastern Canada.

Yeah not sure of the point of Moncton being near the geographic center when the HRM has a closer driving distance to more of the Maritime's population (with the HRM containing at least 20% itself).

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Thanks for the tip on that. I'm confused about Plattsburgh, though. Isn't that on the west side of Lake Champlain? Looks to me like you pick up Hwy 2 just south of the Canada/US border. Or am I missing something?

No, you're correct about that. My bad. US 2 crosses Lake Champlain just south of the Canada/US border.

Originally Posted by rousseau

I wonder if it would be faster to take Hwy 10 out of Montreal, switch to Hwy 55 at Magog and take that across the border where it turns into I-91, then meet up with Hwy 2 at St. Johnsbury VT and continue on with your directions as above?

That would be faster, yes since the roads on the Canadian side are all divided. US 2 is a two lane winding highway for the most part - slow but scenic.

The NE is one of the few places where the roads are actually better on the Canadian side than on the US side. SR 9 (the Airline Route) between Bangor and Calais has been upgraded, but is still a lonely road through the woods. As soon as you get to the NB border though, you enter onto the divided limited access NB Highway 1, which is quite literally the most overengineered expressway this side of the Pecos...........

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Yeah not sure of the point of Moncton being near the geographic center when the HRM has a closer driving distance to more of the Maritime's population (with the HRM containing at least 20% itself).

It's geographic isocenter vs population isocenter. Take your pick.

There is no question that Halifax is central within NS, but NB and PEI lie to the north and to the west of the NS peninsula. NS only accounts for about 51% of the Maritimes population. The dispersed population distribution of the Maritimes therefore pushes the population isocenter of the region considerably northwest of Halifax. If I were to guess, I would think the isocenter is probably somewhere close to your hometown, probably between Springhill and Amherst.

Put another way, Halifax is very conveniently located to the 600,000 or so people who live in central NS. Halifax however is inconveniently located to the other 1.25 million people who live elsewhere in the Maritimes.

It's a matter of perception. You now live in Halifax so Halifax is the center of your universe. Moncton is inconvenient to you and you see little reason to ever visit there.

For me, I live in Moncton and it is the center of my universe. It's close to PEI (where I'm from), and convenient for day trips to Freddy, Saint John, Fundy National Park, even Saint Andrews. I can do day trips to Halifax too (I did one a few days ago), but I can do everything I need to do on a daily basis in Moncton and, aside from an occasional getaway, I have no reason to ever visit there.......

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It's geographic isocenter vs population isocenter. Take your pick.

There is no question that Halifax is central within NS, but NB and PEI lie to the north and to the west of the NS peninsula. NS only accounts for about 51% of the Maritimes population. The dispersed population distribution of the Maritimes therefore pushes the population isocenter of the region considerably northwest of Halifax. If I were to guess, I would think the isocenter is probably somewhere close to your hometown, probably between Springhill and Amherst.

Whether or not that's true, it doesn't change the fact that Halifax is within closer driving distance to more of the population than Moncton. As you said, NS has over half the combined population, and the only part of NS closer to Moncton than Hfx is part of Cumberland County which has less than 40k people.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Whether or not that's true, it doesn't change the fact that Halifax is within closer driving distance to more of the population than Moncton.

I don't dispute this, but it is a truism that Haligonians tend to have a "centre of the universe" opinion about themselves whereby they feel that their city is far more relevant and indispensable to the rest of the Maritimes than it really is. At least half the population of the region live more than three hours drive from Halifax and only visit there very occasionally. For most of these people, Halifax isn't even their capital city.........

[SignalHillHiker]

I was at a comedy show tonight and the guy said he was from Toronto and people cheered, and he was genuinely shocked. And later in his set (he's a writer for This Hour Has 22 Minutes; so his GF is a Newfoundlander and he works with all Newfoundlanders and that's why he's here) he said he works in Halifax, and strained Halifax like a dirty word, and no one reacted. And he said, "So are you guys, like, fine with Halifax?" and everyone sort of shrugged. The only laugh he got in his whole rant about how much Halifax sucks was how stupidly proud they are of stupid local things like Donairs, and that could've been a partially introspective laugh, who knows.

I was like... what effing city am I in? Have we finally dropped that provincial hatred for everything west? It was genuinely striking and unusual. In past experience, both of those intros would've gotten heartfelt boos, based on experience in both cities.

I think we're finally starting to mature in the same way our treatment on the mainland has improved and is less prejudiced.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I was at a comedy show tonight and the guy said he was from Toronto and people cheered, and he was genuinely shocked. And later in his set (he's a writer for This Hour Has 22 Minutes; so his GF is a Newfoundlander and he works with all Newfoundlanders and that's why he's here) he said he works in Halifax, and strained Halifax like a dirty word, and no one reacted. And he said, "So are you guys, like, fine with Halifax?" and everyone sort of shrugged. The only laugh he got in his whole rant about how much Halifax sucks was how stupidly proud they are of stupid local things like Donairs, and that could've been a partially introspective laugh, who knows.

I was like... what effing city am I in? Have we finally dropped that provincial hatred for everything west? It was genuinely striking and unusual. In past experience, both of those intros would've gotten heartfelt boos, based on experience in both cities.

I think we're finally starting to mature in the same way our treatment on the mainland has improved and is less prejudiced.

Canadians are mellowing out about such things. I've noticed it in this part of the country as well.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I don't dispute this, but it is a truism that Haligonians tend to have a "centre of the universe" opinion about themselves whereby they feel that their city is far more relevant and indispensable to the rest of the Maritimes than it really is. At least half the population of the region live more than three hours drive from Halifax and only visit there very occasionally. For most of these people, Halifax isn't even their capital city.........

Personally I find the whole "Moncton as hub city" a more problematic truism considering that despite its geographic location, Halifax genuinely acts as far more of a hub due to population distribution with things like Healthcare, education, air travel, etc. Other than making certain regional trips more convenient for Moncton locals, are there actually many industries in which Moncton's location has given it a dominant position?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Personally I find the whole "Moncton as hub city" a more problematic truism considering that despite its geographic location, Halifax genuinely acts as far more of a hub due to population distribution with things like Healthcare, education, air travel, etc. Other than making certain regional trips more convenient for Moncton locals, are there actually many industries in which Moncton's location has given it a dominant position?

Regarding air travel - Halifax's dominance has a lot to do with Air Canada's "hub and spoke" system. There is no question that the size of the city and it's status as a provincial capital helps as well. Moncton only has about 15-20% of the PAX as Halifax does, and it serves more as a regional airport for the central Maritimes.

As for healthcare - Moncton is darn near self sufficient with two tertiary teaching hospitals. The only areas really lacking are pediatric care (the IWK in Halifax rightfully serves as the Maritime pediatric referral hospital) and cardiac surgery. Our cardiac patients mostly go to Saint John.

Education - Southeast NB is fairly well served with three full universities (MTA, UdeM and Crandall) and a satellite health sciences campus (UNB-Moncton). There are two community colleges in Moncton. Overall, there are 9-10,000 post secondary students in SE NB. Post graduate programs on the Anglophone side are lacking, but otherwise we're doing well.

As for industries where Moncton's geographic location makes a difference, I think you would be looking mostly as logistical stuff. Moncton is still the Atlantic Canadian HQ for CNR. The Moncton International Airport is almost as busy in freight and cargo as Halifax Stanfield (within a few percentage points). There is a lot of regional warehousing and distribution in Moncton (Kent, Shoppers, Loblaws, several pharmaceutical warehouses etc). Large trucking firms are headquartered here (Midland, Armour, Day & Ross etc). Fed Ex, UPS and Purolator all have large terminals here.

There is a lot of light manufacturing in Moncton, but that is not location specific. Customer contact centres are big here, but that has more to do with the bilingual character of the community rather than location. Financial services and insurance are big in Moncton too, but again this is not location specific. This is mostly good fortune.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by rousseau

Thanks for the tip on that. I'm confused about Plattsburgh, though. Isn't that on the west side of Lake Champlain? Looks to me like you pick up Hwy 2 just south of the Canada/US border. Or am I missing something?

I wonder if it would be faster to take Hwy 10 out of Montreal, switch to Hwy 55 at Magog and take that across the border where it turns into I-91, then meet up with Hwy 2 at St. Johnsbury VT and continue on with your directions as above?

U.S. Route 2 isn't really that straight or convenient. In fact it's annoyingly twisty for a road of that "grade" (U.S. federal highway). You're probably better off continuing due east past Sherbrooke, entering Maine at Woburn (where Quebec Route 161 ends), and taking the Maine 27 then at some point leave it to use smaller roads to reach I-95.

All things considered, you're probably better off going through Riviere-du-Loup and Edmunston (really less scenic, obviously... I'm just talking about efficiency).

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Regarding air travel - Halifax's dominance has a lot to do with Air Canada's "hub and spoke" system. There is no question that the size of the city and it's status as a provincial capital helps as well. Moncton only has about 15-20% of the PAX as Halifax does, and it serves more as a regional airport for the central Maritimes.

As for healthcare - Moncton is darn near self sufficient with two tertiary teaching hospitals. The only areas really lacking are pediatric care (the IWK in Halifax rightfully serves as the Maritime pediatric referral hospital) and cardiac surgery. Our cardiac patients mostly go to Saint John.

Education - Southeast NB is fairly well served with three full universities (MTA, UdeM and Crandall) and a satellite health sciences campus (UNB-Moncton). There are two community colleges in Moncton. Overall, there are 9-10,000 post secondary students in SE NB. Post graduate programs on the Anglophone side are lacking, but otherwise we're doing well.

As for industries where Moncton's geographic location makes a difference, I think you would be looking mostly as logistical stuff. Moncton is still the Atlantic Canadian HQ for CNR. The Moncton International Airport is almost as busy in freight and cargo as Halifax Stanfield (within a few percentage points). There is a lot of regional warehousing and distribution in Moncton (Kent, Shoppers, Loblaws, several pharmaceutical warehouses etc). Large trucking firms are headquartered here (Midland, Armour, Day & Ross etc). Fed Ex, UPS and Purolator all have large terminals here.

There is a lot of light manufacturing in Moncton, but that is not location specific. Customer contact centres are big here, but that has more to do with the bilingual character of the community rather than location. Financial services and insurance are big in Moncton too, but again this is not location specific. This is mostly good fortune.

Of course I never meant to suggest that Halifax provides many things for Moncton, I would only question if Moncton provides a wide enough assortment of services to other Maritimers compared to Halifax to justify being called the Maritime "hub".

[Hali87]

Well it is the hub. You pass through Moncton to get from many parts of the Maritimes to get to many other parts of the Maritimes. Halifax has a concentration of important things and a larger population but it's on the edge of the region, geographically. "Hub" doesn't necessarily mean "most important".

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I don't dispute this, but it is a truism that Haligonians tend to have a "centre of the universe" opinion about themselves whereby they feel that their city is far more relevant and indispensable to the rest of the Maritimes than it really is.

I think this is more an external perception than reality. Not a lot of time is spent worrying about where rural NBers go for their appointments.

The reality is probably worse; a lot of people in Halifax (especially ones without ties to the rest of the region) implicitly assume that other parts of the Maritimes are backwaters that are at most interesting because of their quaintness. A lot of residents of Halifax feel that way about their own city too, and compare it to much larger centres around the world. When I lived in Halifax I'd lived there, in Vancouver, and in Toronto. I thought that it was a small town and that everywhere else in the Maritimes was more or less hinterland. Not saying this view is correct, but like I said we weren't preoccupied with the rest of the region.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Hali87

Well it is the hub. You pass through Moncton to get from many parts of the Maritimes to get to many other parts of the Maritimes. Halifax has a concentration of important things and a larger population but it's on the edge of the region, geographically. "Hub" doesn't necessarily mean "most important".

But that's not what hub means. It's either a literal, technical name for part of a wheel, propeller or similar device, or an analogical name for something that seems to be at the center of things due to its importance. It isn't a term for a geographically central location, unless it has elevated importance because of it. http://www.dictionary.com/browse/hub?s=t

[Hali87]

Originally Posted by someone123

I think this is more an external perception than reality. Not a lot of time is spent worrying about where rural NBers go for their appointments.

The reality is probably worse; a lot of people in Halifax (especially ones without ties to the rest of the region) implicitly assume that other parts of the Maritimes are backwaters that are at most interesting because of their quaintness. A lot of residents of Halifax feel that way about their own city too, and compare it to much larger centres around the world.

Yeah if anything there is a strange sense of detachment from the rest of the region. In many ways the ROC begins at Truro, where the 102 meets the Trans Can. It's not so much that we think of ourselves as the centre of the universe as it is that we tend to frame ourselves within the national context rather than the regional one. Halifax is the largest city in the region and has a lot of nationally relevant institutions but it doesn't necessarily feel like the main focal point for the three provinces combined, though it is a magnet in many ways.

[Hali87]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

But that's not what hub means. It's either a literal, technical name for part of a wheel, propeller or similar device, or an analogical name for something that seems to be at the center of things due to its importance. It isn't a term for a geographically central location, unless it has elevated importance because of it. http://www.dictionary.com/browse/hub?s=t

I'm assuming that when places like Moncton (and Truro) refer to themselves as a hub, they mean in the geographic/transportation sense. Their histories and locations within the regional transportation networks support this. It's also safe to assume they didn't check dictionary.com when defining themselves as such.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by someone123

The reality is probably worse; a lot of people in Halifax (especially ones without ties to the rest of the region) implicitly assume that other parts of the Maritimes are backwaters that are at most interesting because of their quaintness. A lot of residents of Halifax feel that way about their own city too, and compare it to much larger centres around the world. When I lived in Halifax I'd lived there, in Vancouver, and in Toronto. I thought that it was a small town and that everywhere else in the Maritimes was more or less hinterland. Not saying this view is correct, but like I said we weren't preoccupied with the rest of the region.

It's a pretty accurate view from most Haligonians i've met. Almost everyone from NB/PEI/rural NS has been to Halifax but the opposite isn't true - Haligonians are more likely to travel to Toronto/US/abroad than to other parts of the Maritimes, whereas a trip for a lot of Maritimers is to the big city: Halifax.

Halifax is very much the Toronto of the Maritimes and that's how I generally explain it to folks in Ontario. It's a pretty apt comparison. Everyone else cares a lot about them but they won't necessarily care about you.

As for Moncton's hub title, it's taken literally to mean in the middle - the way that hub is used doesn't mean most important. Nobody's fooling themselves by saying that Moncton is more important or bigger than Halifax.

As an aside I find it interesting that some of Moncton's growth is due to its bilingual background but it's steadily becoming less Francophone the larger it grows. Its sprawling is anglicizing many rural areas surrounding the city. Its bilingual levels are staying steady but more and more are speaking English as a first language the larger it grows.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by JHikka

As for Moncton's hub title, it's taken literally to mean in the middle - the way that hub is used doesn't mean most important. Nobody's fooling themselves by saying that Moncton is more important or bigger than Halifax.

Indeed - when I refer to Moncton as the "Hub City", it's only in reference to it's central location in the Maritimes. I in no way am implying that Moncton is an economic and cultural rival to Halifax (although I do think that Halifax's presumed overwhelming dominance in this regard is overestimated).

[urbandreamer]

Orangeville or Bolton could become the next Milton.

Georgetown could easily triple in size.

New Tecumseh/Alliston sprawling like crazy--100k easily attainable.

Baden-New Hamburg could become a 100K city if they sprawl into each other.

Elmira/St Jacobs - the next Waterloo?

Fergus - Elora - Salem: join to become one 50-75k city?

Brantford - 500k attainable

Woodstock - 100k

[Loco101]

I haven't participated much in this thread...

I've noticed that the places that grow rapidly are usually served by a freeway. Anything along the outskirts (both inside and outside) of the GTA has the potential for rapid growth.

I did not realize that Clarington now has a population of over 92,000 (it contains Courtice, Bowmanville and Newcastle)

I can see places in extreme SW Ontario such as Amherstburg and Leamington becoming popular with retirees and growing rapidly due to climate, cheaper housing prices and not having to leave the province for Ontarians.

Port Hope and Cobourg are just outside the traditional GTA so they may become popular just for that reason and they are both along the 401.

Anywhere between Hwys 401 and 404 has the potential for rapid growth and especially if the Bradford bypass is built.