What if? New report paints scenarios for the future of Ottawa
Joanne Laucius, Ottawa Citizen
Updated: February 5, 2019
A report that casts ahead to Ottawa 50-plus years from now contains some eye-opening scenarios.
One scenario painted in Ottawa Next: Beyond 2036 suggests Ottawa-Gatineau will be part of a “mega-region” with Toronto and Montreal in order to compete in the global market for talent and investment, aided by high-speed trains to Montreal in an hour and to Toronto in two hours.
Another scenario comes right out of the plot of a near-future dystopian novel. The gap between rich and poor widens to the point where the rich live downtown in enclaves near a thriving entertainment district. Some have private security. Meanwhile, the poor live stuffed six to 10 in two- or three-bedroom apartments in neighbourhoods where substance abuse and crime are rife.
Yet another suggests that living indoors will be the new normal under climate change. While there are innovations in energy efficiency and green design, energy demand keeps increasing. Wastewater is filtered on-site in commercial, industrial and apartment buildings, and nuclear power is the main source of energy.
Some scenarios look on the bright side.
In one, governments invest in employment, social services and affordable housing. There are still income disparities, but they’re not growing. There are still a lot of green spaces, museums, and galleries, but Ottawa’s identity is increasingly based on its image as a “global city” with thriving ethnic communities downtown and in the suburbs. There are new international and regional festivals, restaurants and shops, which become key to attracting newcomers and businesses.
In December 2016, city councillors asked staff to undertake a planning study to identify trends and disrupters and identify opportunities beyond 2036. David Gordon, a professor in the School of Urban and Regional Planning at Queen’s University and a group of graduate students were enlisted to take city staff through process of planning scenarios. (In 2017, the school produced a report called Canada’s Resilient Capital: Ottawa in the Next Half Century)
A good scenario plan looks at an entire region, 50 to 60 years ahead, and considers factors such as risks, things that might change and choices that might be made, said Gordon. Scenarios help decision-makers and voters think about the steps they need to take to achieve — or avoid — that scenario.
“You step back and look honestly, like you’re seeing a photo from space,” said Gordon. “If you think it will be a region with two to three million people, do you want it to look like Atlanta or like Helsinki?”
If the scenarios are thought-provoking, that’s the point to the exercise, said Barrhaven Coun. Jan Harder, the chair of the city’s planning committee, which will be receiving the report on Feb. 14.
“It’s absolutely provocative. It takes you out of your sandbox.”
Among the scenarios:
• Mega region: Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal and Toronto band together to attract high-tech workers and companies. Ottawa’s relatively low cost of living attracts an influx of people from Montreal and Toronto. Small businesses that can network within the mega-region grow and create international head offices in Ottawa. A high-speed rail link that stops at the airport allows Ottawa to expand its roster of flight destinations.
• Boomtown: Ottawa successfully woos a major new employer, which locates in downtown, bringing 100,000 jobs. Complementary companies also move in, creating 50,000 more jobs. The city invests in transit, parks and culture to attract international talent and there’s a new university or college to keep up with demand. While automation replaces some retail and manual jobs, retraining older workers is only partially successful, leaving seniors living in poverty.
• Government town: Ottawa trundles on with the federal government as its anchor employer. High-tech companies struggle to commercialize research and development, but health and biotech increase in importance. Tourism is strong and Ottawa takes advantage of its rural character. Information technology is doing well, but most companies are branches of international companies and vulnerable to restructuring.
• A gap between rich and poor: Highly skilled immigrants are attracted to high-tech jobs, but others don’t have the skills to work in the sector, and unemployment rates are high. Ottawa’s relatively low housing costs also attract migrants from other cities. Have-nots live in multi-family buildings far from transit stations. Relationships among various parts of the city are strained.
• Living online: Most interaction is online, and more people work from home, at large employment nodes and at highrise complexes near transit stations. On-demand vehicles mean there is less of a chance for “unplanned” social interaction. Communities are defined by online relationships and networks as opposed to neighbourhoods. Residents feel less tied to green space and recreational facilities.
• Climate disruption: Climate change has had a visible effect with a loss of green space and urban trees. However, diversified agriculture booms because of new technology and a longer growing season. Abandoned farmland is reclaimed, but there are more algae blooms in lakes and rivers due to run-off. Ottawa struggles to upgrade infrastructure to deal with heat waves, ice storms and floods.
• Green Ottawa: There’s an investment in managing Ottawa River water quality and protecting the urban canopy, but invasive species and extreme weather keep agricultural growth to a minimum. Electrical production is decentralized.
• Doubling down on downtown: Most population growth is inside the Greenbelt, prompting redevelopment of “bungalow-belt” neighbourhoods. There’s a new high-speed rail station downtown. Affordable housing is clustered in highrise developments around transit stations. Suburban growth slows, and suburban neighbourhoods look more like urban villages.
• Decentralized growth: Better transit connections mean some new employers are locating in the suburbs. Orléans, Barrhaven and Kanata have evolved into mixed-use communities more accessible by bicycle and transit, although car ownership remains higher than downtown. Ottawa remains a relatively affordable place to live.
• Tale of two cities: A large corporate headquarters moves to undeveloped land outside the suburbs, bringing100,000 direct and indirect jobs. A new technical university is established nearby, and a “smart” community springs up. Downtown continues to grow and remains the centre of culture and nightlife while the suburbs focus on services for their existing communities, but much new investment goes to the new smart city.
Ottawa is aiming to table a new official plan by the end of 2021. In the next year there will be a flurry of reports and opportunities for residents to get involved, said Harder.
Gordon hopes the scenarios will spark some lively discussion.
“Because it’s 50 years out, I hope people can park their short-term positions. I hope people can talk about what kind of city they want when Ottawa-Gatineau has two or three million people instead of a million.”
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local...ture-of-ottawa
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