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  #3001  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 1:18 AM
wave46 wave46 is offline
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Originally Posted by Dwils01 View Post
I will leave this here, it might get more discussion than in the Canada stats thread.

Northern Ontario grew slightly with most growth concentrated in Sudbury and the Kenora District. Not exaclty sure about the Kenora district considering the two biggest cities almost cancel each other out.

Rough population total of Northern Ontario: 723,945 from 719866 up 0.6%
The many reserves in Kenora District, along with more complete enumeration may have something to do with the jump in population.

Also, for your last total, I come up with 733,016 for 2011. That's 509k in the northeast and 224k in the northwest. So, it looks like we're down another 10k.

Edit: I noticed you excluded Manitoulin District there. My bad.

Last edited by wave46; Feb 9, 2017 at 3:12 AM.
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  #3002  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 2:44 AM
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Northwestern Ontario Economic Region (Kenora, Rainy River, Thunder Bay)

231,691 in 2016
224,034 in 2011

Change of +3.4%

Northeastern Ontario Economic Region (Algoma, Cochrane, Greater Sudbury, Manitoulin, Nipissing, Parry Sound, Sudbury, Timiskaming)

548,449 in 2016
551,144 in 2011

Change of -0.5%

Northern Ontario total (Northwestern and Northeastern Economic Regions):

780,140 in 2016
775,178 in 2011

Change of +0.6% (0.64% to be more exact)

The above, but excluding Parry Sound District:

737,316 in 2016
733,016 in 2011

Still a change of +0.6% (0.59% to be more exact)
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  #3003  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 2:58 AM
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Originally Posted by toaster View Post
Looking forward to vid's reasoning for Thunder Bay's population decline, given I remember a few posts made noting Thunder Bay was significantly increasing population.
Population stagnation. Lots of people have simply moved out to the surrounding municipalities. Those who have left the city or died have been replaced by native people from the far north, and immigrants.

Lack of responses could also be a bit of a factor, since the response rate was about 98% and the population only declined by 0.4%, in theory, the population could have gone up by a very small amount and it just wasn't caught. You could say that about many communities in the region.

Also, as has been pointed out in other discussions, the census typically doesn't include university students because it is conducted just as the school year is ending. Their presence gives the impression of more people in the city, when they're not permanently here.

The labour force survey has shown our population holding steady or growing very slightly and that's a little bit more accurate than the census. The purpose of the census isn't so much to get population numbers (although they are fun to look at and act as a bit of a benchmark), but rather to get more detailed information about demographics across the entire country at the same time so that comparisons can be made and policies can be implemented based on more information.

Also all the claims that the city has been growing based simply on what seems to be happening around us could all be an illusion. 52,545 of the CMA's 57,146 dwellings (91.9%) are occupied, compared to 52,062 of 56,071 (92.8%) in 2011. We have more empty houses in the CMA now.

We built 1,075 dwellings to accommodate 25 people, over 5 years.

Also, the ring of fire was supposed to bring tens of thousands by now. lol
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  #3004  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 3:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Dwils01 View Post

In the Northeast (excl. Parry Sound District)

Sudbury 161,531 from 160,274 up 0.8%
Cochrane District 79,682 from 81,122 down 1.8%
Timiskaming District 32,251 from 32,634 down 1.2%
Nipissing District 83,150 from 84,736 down 1.9%
Sudbury District (Not including Greater Sudbury) 21,546 from 21,196 up 1.7%
Algoma District 114,094 from 115,870 down 1.5%
Manitoulin District: 13,255 (2016)

Total for the Northeast (excl. Parry Sound) in 2016 = 505,509.
Compared to 508,982 in 2011.

The Northwest (in particular Kenora District) is saving our bacon numbers-wise.
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  #3005  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 3:10 AM
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In particular, it's the First Nations. That's basically the only population growth for this region.
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  #3006  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 10:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
Manitoulin District: 13,255 (2016)

Total for the Northeast (excl. Parry Sound) in 2016 = 505,509.
Compared to 508,982 in 2011.

The Northwest (in particular Kenora District) is saving our bacon numbers-wise.
I excluded Manitoulin District because I couldn't find the numbers, thanks for finding them. Also I never count Parry Sound district as Northern Ontario even though it's only a few kilometers south of North Bay.

Thanks for the assistance is finding these numbers anyway.
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  #3007  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2017, 2:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vid View Post
Population stagnation. Lots of people have simply moved out to the surrounding municipalities. Those who have left the city or died have been replaced by native people from the far north, and immigrants.

Lack of responses could also be a bit of a factor, since the response rate was about 98% and the population only declined by 0.4%, in theory, the population could have gone up by a very small amount and it just wasn't caught. You could say that about many communities in the region.

Also, as has been pointed out in other discussions, the census typically doesn't include university students because it is conducted just as the school year is ending. Their presence gives the impression of more people in the city, when they're not permanently here.

The labour force survey has shown our population holding steady or growing very slightly and that's a little bit more accurate than the census. The purpose of the census isn't so much to get population numbers (although they are fun to look at and act as a bit of a benchmark), but rather to get more detailed information about demographics across the entire country at the same time so that comparisons can be made and policies can be implemented based on more information.

Also all the claims that the city has been growing based simply on what seems to be happening around us could all be an illusion. 52,545 of the CMA's 57,146 dwellings (91.9%) are occupied, compared to 52,062 of 56,071 (92.8%) in 2011. We have more empty houses in the CMA now.

We built 1,075 dwellings to accommodate 25 people, over 5 years.

Also, the ring of fire was supposed to bring tens of thousands by now. lol
Thanks for posting all of the Northern Ontario data vid.

Here in the Northeast I was shocked to see that Timmins lost so many people yet places like Kapuskasing and Hearst held steady?!?! But I will say that a good portion of our population isn't permanent and that many people here who are retiring are moving out of town. The high property taxes and climate will do that.
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  #3008  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2017, 2:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
Thanks for posting all of the Northern Ontario data vid.

Here in the Northeast I was shocked to see that Timmins lost so many people yet places like Kapuskasing and Hearst held steady?!?! But I will say that a good portion of our population isn't permanent and that many people here who are retiring are moving out of town. The high property taxes and climate will do that.
I was surprised as well. When I lived in Kapuskasing, it seemed like most people were moving to Timmins, as it was doing pretty well with gold mining.

Kap also got nailed with the Agrium phosphate mine closure, the shutdown of the Experimental Farm and the completion of the Lower Mattagami Hydro project. I was shocked to hear it held steady.
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  #3009  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2017, 4:17 AM
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Terrace Bay was the big winner in Northwestern Ontario this time, but in 2006, they lost a third of their population. It's all very up or down but overall the region is generally stable. I think a lot of people also move around within Northern Ontario depending on where the jobs are. I know lots of people went from places like Marathon, Red Rock and Manitouwadge to White River (which also saw growth) because of a new sawmill or something opening up there, and that was clearly reflected in the census. Nipigon saw growth primarily because it's turning into a retirement community for some middle-class Thunder Bayers.
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  #3010  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2017, 4:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
I was surprised as well. When I lived in Kapuskasing, it seemed like most people were moving to Timmins, as it was doing pretty well with gold mining.

Kap also got nailed with the Agrium phosphate mine closure, the shutdown of the Experimental Farm and the completion of the Lower Mattagami Hydro project. I was shocked to hear it held steady.
I work with a lot of people who moved here from Kap and Hearst. I thought the same about Kap with there being fewer employment opportunities. I do know that quite a few Cree people have moved to those towns so maybe that made the difference?
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  #3011  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2017, 4:22 AM
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Originally Posted by vid View Post
We built 1,075 dwellings to accommodate 25 people, over 5 years. :shrug
We also just emerged from one of the most worst rental crunches in some time. There was a significant length of time where the vacancy rate was around 1% (considered extremely low). The college and university are both concerned about stagnant enrollment, so its not like the student population is exploding. The numbers just don't jive.

I tend to be a believer in Councillor Larry Hebert's unaccounted Thunder Bay community (he believes there could be as many as 25 000 more people using city services than our population figures suggest). I don't know that the number is that high, but he did base his assessment based on statistical analysis, not just opinion.

As for the stagnation of Northern Ontario as a whole, one only needs to look at some recent numbers released by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce. Production of real tangible goods in Ontario has fallen 12% in recent years... and that is Northern Ontario's bread & butter (mostly resource based). The financial sector has saved Ontario from total economic despair. Northern Ontario needs to find a new globally competitive goods production 'scheme' and the federal and provincial governments need to push new Canadians to places outside the major Canadian CMAs in order to promote growth in Northern Ontario.
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  #3012  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2017, 4:56 AM
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Originally Posted by TbayON View Post
I tend to be a believer in Councillor Larry Hebert's unaccounted Thunder Bay community (he believes there could be as many as 25 000 more people using city services than our population figures suggest). I don't know that the number is that high, but he did base his assessment based on statistical analysis, not just opinion.
My personal estimate is that the number of uncounted people in the city is between 5,000 to 12,500 at any time. It would swell during periods where you've got university students (typically not counted in the census but they do impact city services and the law requires the city to actually count their numbers when designing municipal ward boundaries), northern First Nations and regional people coming to town for grocery shopping or healthcare or education, as well as tourists being in the city.

There is also the fact that over 3,000 people live in Gorham/Ware/Fowler and the Whitefish River Valley, and they have an impact on the local economy, but they're not included in the CMA because they're not established municipalities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TbayON View Post
As for the stagnation of Northern Ontario as a whole, one only needs to look at some recent numbers released by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce. Production of real tangible goods in Ontario has fallen 12% in recent years... and that is Northern Ontario's bread & butter (mostly resource based). The financial sector has saved Ontario from total economic despair. Northern Ontario needs to find a new globally competitive goods production 'scheme' and the federal and provincial governments need to push new Canadians to places outside the major Canadian CMAs in order to promote growth in Northern Ontario.
We don't need population growth to be economically viable, but we do need a decent amount of people between 18 and 40 and a reliable supply of jobs. Honestly, if the population were to drop a little, but most people were reasonably well employed and satisfied, I'd say the city would be doing better in that scenario than one where the population is growing, but jobs are scarce and quality of life is low. I think the city is doing a fair amount of effort into ensuring the former: simply maintain the labour force and jobs, maintain the population to 110,000 (+/- 5,000), and work on improving local cultural amenities to make life enjoyable here. In an ideal situation, we would only really need to bring people in to replace skilled workers that have retired that the local market can't supply.

Long story short: I think based on the big picture the region isn't terribly fucked, we just need a bit of creativity and should focus on maintaining the population and improving quality of life over growing the population at any expense.

We do have to accept that some of the smaller towns are going to become obsolete and become ghost towns (it happens, look at Jackfish), but at the same time, those towns can become specialized (like Nipigon-Red Rock and Elliot Lake as retirement communities, Kenora as a cottage country) or reinvigorated (like Red Lake with Goldcorp and Terrace Bay or White River with their sawmills). We can't be propping up small communities with no viable industry, so we have to find ways to make them viable or find a way to "retire" them without hurting the few people who remain.


It's going to be interesting, once later census reports are released, to see how many people have moved to new communities within Northern Ontario. Because we've seen a lot of communities shrink and a lot of them grow, often in strange patterns where the two are beside each other (Nipigon-Red Rock and Schreiber-Terrace Bay) where one grew and the other shrank, and I have a feeling that it's a result of people within Northern Ontario following jobs around.
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  #3013  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2017, 8:03 PM
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Originally Posted by vid View Post
We don't need population growth to be economically viable, but we do need a decent amount of people between 18 and 40 and a reliable supply of jobs. Honestly, if the population were to drop a little, but most people were reasonably well employed and satisfied, I'd say the city would be doing better in that scenario than one where the population is growing, but jobs are scarce and quality of life is low. I think the city is doing a fair amount of effort into ensuring the former: simply maintain the labour force and jobs, maintain the population to 110,000 (+/- 5,000), and work on improving local cultural amenities to make life enjoyable here. In an ideal situation, we would only really need to bring people in to replace skilled workers that have retired that the local market can't supply.

Long story short: I think based on the big picture the region isn't terribly fucked, we just need a bit of creativity and should focus on maintaining the population and improving quality of life over growing the population at any expense.

We do have to accept that some of the smaller towns are going to become obsolete and become ghost towns (it happens, look at Jackfish), but at the same time, those towns can become specialized (like Nipigon-Red Rock and Elliot Lake as retirement communities, Kenora as a cottage country) or reinvigorated (like Red Lake with Goldcorp and Terrace Bay or White River with their sawmills). We can't be propping up small communities with no viable industry, so we have to find ways to make them viable or find a way to "retire" them without hurting the few people who remain.


It's going to be interesting, once later census reports are released, to see how many people have moved to new communities within Northern Ontario. Because we've seen a lot of communities shrink and a lot of them grow, often in strange patterns where the two are beside each other (Nipigon-Red Rock and Schreiber-Terrace Bay) where one grew and the other shrank, and I have a feeling that it's a result of people within Northern Ontario following jobs around.
Well said.

As for stats in places like White River or whatnot, outside of a 20% increase or decrease in population, I don't read into it much. The lower the overall population, the more errors in enumeration show up. To miss a few people in a census is White River is huge, while in Thunder Bay, not so much.

As for Northern Ontario overall, I feel we're coming close to equilibrium. It's not the 1990s where the population is collapsing, which is an improvement.

I am somewhat concerned at the age structure in Northern Ontario - we're pretty heavily loaded towards the Boomers and experiencing a notable decline in children. However, I am noticing young people from other parts of the country considering moving here, especially in specialized fields, so I consider that an optimistic sign that we're shedding the 'trees and rocks' image we have in other parts of the country.

Gazing into my (often wrong) crystal ball, I'll try my hand at prediction. I think places that are regional centres will continue to do well (Sudbury and Thunder Bay) due to the draw they have from other areas. Smaller places connected to the gold industry will outperform those who are dependent on other base metals. The weakest areas will be those who cater to the forestry and retirement communities.
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  #3014  
Old Posted Feb 13, 2017, 5:50 PM
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I'm going to counter and say that yes, we do indeed need some growth. Reason was laid out in the previous post by thewave46. Population structure of the north is skewed towards the boomer generation. We do need to bring in some younger people. We do have growth in First Nation population, but I still believe we will need some immigration to keep the population sustainable over the long term. So growth in this case means we need more young people coming into the population than we currently have. Totally agree though that the north is far better off now than it was in the previous couple decades.

Northern Ontario should also focus on growing its economic indicators (such as GDP, participation and employment rate, average income etc.) We are actually not far off the provincial/federal rates (or in some communities in some cases above the average and/or median rate). We can do better though in becoming more efficient, productive and profitable to benefit our existing population. Some private sector job growth would also beneficial given most Northern Ontario centres are statistically more dependent on government jobs than other regions of the province. Nothing wrong with government jobs, but the private sector needs to be there to support them.

Larger centres in Northern Ontario will be okay. There has been a lot of work done in diversifying economies in the larger centres, which reduces risk. Unfortunately this is not easy in smaller towns where one industry often supports the bulk of the economic activity. I have stated it before and I'll say it again: community stability as a goal of resource management is a failed goal because of the nature of commodity markets, or if the resource is finite (mining, oil & gas etc.).

On the national level, we often hear a lot about shortages of skilled workers and the impending doom of the economy as a result. There is another less vocal camp that strongly believes we have the labour required to effectively keep the country going, but that labour force will need to be mobile. So perhaps what we are seeing in the Northern Ontario numbers is a good reflection of what is going on in the country as a whole, or if it is not yet going on, will need to happen in the future.

Last edited by TbayON; Feb 13, 2017 at 6:04 PM.
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  #3015  
Old Posted Feb 15, 2017, 9:17 PM
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THUNDER BAY

Work is underway on updating the Wholesale Club store.

Interior updates will be coming late winter/early spring for the LCBO at the Thunder Centre.

Hearing that the former TD Bank on Red River Rd. in downtown PA is going to be converted over to office use. Sounds like the building is going to be broken up into a few smaller office suites.
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  #3016  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2017, 4:30 PM
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THUNDER BAY

The new banquet/multi-use venue at 206 Park Ave. is taking bookings for this summer. It will be called The Chanterelle and is located on the 2nd floor of the building. The Tomlin has partnered to provide the catering. Substantial renovations are still on-going at the moment.

Also hearing that another bar-type establishment is opening up in the north core called The Warehouse (or something close to that).

Some renovations are also on going where TBT Surveying used to be on Balmoral Ave. Another tenant is moving into the space that was vacated by TBT as they consolidate their operations to their Kingston St. facilities.
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  #3017  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2017, 2:33 PM
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THUNDER BAY

The new development at the Thunder Centre on Fort William Rd. is confirmed to be a new combined Winners/Home Sense store. The store will be fairly large at 12000 square metres. It should be open in spring 2018.

The space vacated by Home Sense in Intercity Mall when it moves across the road will be filled by a new Marshalls store, which should also be open in 2018.

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Also hearing that another bar-type establishment is opening up in the north core called The Warehouse (or something close to that).
Apparently to be located in the former Gargoyles "A Little to the Left" space.

Last edited by TbayON; Feb 24, 2017 at 7:51 PM.
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  #3018  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2017, 1:26 AM
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Originally Posted by TbayON View Post
THUNDER BAY

The new development at the Thunder Centre on Fort William Rd. is confirmed to be a new combined Winners/Home Sense store. The store will be fairly large at 12000 square metres. It should be open in spring 2018.

The space vacated by Home Sense in Intercity Mall when it moves across the road will be filled by a new Marshalls store, which should also be open in 2018.



Apparently to be located in the former Gargoyles "A Little to the Left" space.
That's interesting as all three stores are owned by the same company. (TJ Maxx / TJX) We only have Winners in Timmins but Sudbury has all three of the ones you mentioned and they are all separate stores. Marshalls isn't much different than Winners but seems to have more of a variety of items. All of the stores have those ridiculous "Compare at" price tags on every item.
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  #3019  
Old Posted Feb 25, 2017, 4:03 AM
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That's interesting as all three stores are owned by the same company. (TJ Maxx / TJX) We only have Winners in Timmins but Sudbury has all three of the ones you mentioned and they are all separate stores. Marshalls isn't much different than Winners but seems to have more of a variety of items. All of the stores have those ridiculous "Compare at" price tags on every item.
Not that I am by any means current with the fashion-retail sector, but my understanding is that Marshalls sells a little higher end stuff (still at a discount though), and a few items that Winners doesn't. Overall, they are very similar though. Those "Compare at" stickers are a very effective marketing tool... and its helped the company really build a distinct brand.
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  #3020  
Old Posted Feb 27, 2017, 12:24 AM
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After looking at the census numbers in a bit more detail (I put all districts of Northern Ontario, plus Parry Sound as it's included in the Northeastern Ontario economic region, into a spreadsheet), I've noticed that a large part of the region's population growth is simply that many more reserves got completely enumerated in 2016 compared to 2011. When you ignore the same reserves in 2016 as in 2011, the population of the reserves counted actually decreases by 4.



Population of Northern Ontario + Parry Sound:
2011: 775,178
2016: 780,140
Difference: 4,962 (+0.64%)

Population of all reserves (IRI and S-É class CSDs) in Northern Ontario + Parry Sound:
2011: 34,298
2016: 42,562
Difference: +8,264 (+24.09%)

Population of all reserves (IRI and S-É class CSDs) which were completely enumerated in both censuses:
2011: 34,298
2016: 34,294
Difference:-4 (-0.01%)

Population of all reserves (IRI and S-É class CSDs) which were completely enumerated in only the 2016 census:
2011: not counted
2016: 8,268
Difference: +8,268

There were no reserves incompletely enumerated in 2016 that were enumerated in 2011.

Population of Northern Ontario, excluding IRI and S-É CSDs which were not enumerated in 2011:

2011: 775,178
2016: 771,872
Difference: -3,306 (-0.42%)

---

Populations of all cities (CY class CSDs):

2011: 485,303
2016: 479,665
Difference: -5,638 (-1.16%)

Populations of all non-city municipalities (Municipality (M and MU), Town (T), Township (TP), and Village (VL) class CSDs):

2011: 219,969
2016: 223,094
Difference: +3,125 (+1.42%)

Populations of all unorganized teritories (NO class CSDs):

2011: 32,513
2016: 32,981
Difference: +468 (+1.44%)


The following places posted 0 population in 2011 and 2016:

Nestor Falls Part B
Lansdowne House
McDowell Lake
Agency 1
Nestor Falls Part C
Sabaskong Bay (Part) 35C
Seine River 23B
Lac des Mille Lacs 22A1
Lake Nipigon
Seine River 22A2
Algoma, Unorg., SE Pt.
Cochrane, Unorg., SW. Pt.
Flying Post 73
Moose Factory 68
Cockburn Island
Campbell Part B
McGregor Bay part B

The following places posted 0 population in 2011, but more than 0 in 2016:

Big Island Mainland 93 (+10)
Timiskaming, Unorg., E. Pt. (+5)

The following places posted 0 population in 2016, but more than 0 in 2011:

Chapleau 75 (-79)

The following reserves were not enumerated in the 2011 census, but were enumerated in the 2016 census:

Sabaskong Bay (Part) 35C
Wawakapewin (Long Dog Lake)
Bear Island 1
Meskantaga
Bearskin Lake
Summer Beaver
Poplar Hill
Kingfisher Lake 1
Sachigo Lake 1
Wunnumin 1
Webequie
Kasabonika Lake
Weagamow Lake 87
Fort Hope 64
Attawapiskat 91A

The following reserves were not enumerated in either census:

Pikangikum 14
Goulais Bay 15A
Rankin Location 15D

And lastly, just for fun, the most and least populated of each CSD type(excluding 0s):

City (CY):
Greater Sudbury, 161,647
Dryden: 7,749

Dissolved municipality (DMU):
Cache Bay, 641
Rosseau, 223

Indian Reserve (IRI):
Wikwemikong Unceded, 2,500
Long Sault 12 and Henvey Inlet 2, 5 each

Local Service Board (LSB):
Lappe, 1,436
McGregor Bay Part A, 10 (McGregor Bay Part B has 0)

Municipality (M and MU):
West Nipissing, 14,364
Killarney, 386

Unorganized Territory (NO):
Kenora, Unorganized, 6,737
Timiskaming, Unorg., E. Pt., 5

Indian Settlement (S-É):
Summer Beaver, 382
Slate Falls, 187

Town (T):
Kapuskasing, 8,292
Latchford, 313

Township (TP):
Seguin, 4,304
Harris, 54

Village (VL):
South River, 1,114
Thornloe, 112
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