BC Population

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Looking at rents in New West, surrey, Coquitlam, etc, I find them quite cheap overall. Sorry but a private 1 bedroom apartment for $800 a month isn't that expensive to me, anyone can afford that and for those who cannot, you can easily rent with 2 people, thats now only $400 a month.

I wasn't talking about renting. Renting has always been OK everywhere in the city.

[cornholio]

Metro Vancouver is still loosing residents to the rest of the province and rest of the country, and allot of them. The city of Vancouver is hemorrhaging residents. New provincial stats will be out shortly.

BC is big and this year there will be many BC residents returning home after losing their jobs in Alberta. Most of these people will be returning to cities in eastern and northern BC. Not to metro Vancouver, thats a place to leave for long time citizens / residents.
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Statist.../Mobility.aspx

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Metro Vancouver is still loosing residents to the rest of the province and rest of the country, and allot of them. The city of Vancouver is hemorrhaging residents. New provincial stats will be out shortly.

BC is big and this year there will be many BC residents returning home after losing their jobs in Alberta. Most of these people will be returning to cities in eastern and northern BC. Not to metro Vancouver, thats a place to leave for long time citizens / residents.
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Statist.../Mobility.aspx

Are you claiming Metro Vancouver is declining? I don't think thats accurate at all.

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Are you claiming Metro Vancouver is declining? I don't think thats accurate at all.

Yes I am saying exactly that, and I provided rock solid proof that cant be argued against. Metro Vancouver is losing residents, and those residents are being replaced by new immigrants to Canada. All growth in metro Vancouver is via immigration to Canada. And the stats show that even the Fraser valley is now losing residents as well. The birth rate in Metro Vancouver is abysmal, and I would say that of long term residents its going to be among the lowest in the world (but this part is just my observation and there are no stats out there to prove this). Personally I think Canada has some major policy problems that are hurting Canadian citizens en mass. But with the level of PCness I don't expect anything to change anytime soon and Canadians will continue suffering for no reason. Because when people get pushed out of their community then it is because they are suffering.

So you obviously did not open my link here it is for reference again http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Statist.../Mobility.aspx

Cheers,

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Yes I am saying exactly that, and I provided rock solid proof that cant be argued against. Metro Vancouver is losing residents, and those residents are being replaced by new immigrants to Canada. All growth in metro Vancouver is via immigration to Canada. And the stats show that even the Fraser valley is now losing residents as well. The birth rate in Metro Vancouver is abysmal, and I would say that of long term residents its going to be among the lowest in the world (but this part is just my observation and there are no stats out there to prove this). Personally I think Canada has some major policy problems that are hurting Canadian citizens en mass. But with the level of PCness I don't expect anything to change anytime soon and Canadians will continue suffering for no reason. Because when people get pushed out of their community then it is because they are suffering.

So you obviously did not open my link here it is for reference again http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Statist.../Mobility.aspx

Cheers,

interesting assumption
if people leave the Vancouver area, do they still work in Metro Vancouver ? But I find it surprising that, not only they choose to leave Vancouver, but they leave the CMA? Habitually, people will leave the urban core for the suburbs (inside the CMA), but rarely leave the CMA.

[KPELLY]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Yes I am saying exactly that, and I provided rock solid proof that cant be argued against. Metro Vancouver is losing residents, and those residents are being replaced by new immigrants to Canada. All growth in metro Vancouver is via immigration to Canada. And the stats show that even the Fraser valley is now losing residents as well. The birth rate in Metro Vancouver is abysmal, and I would say that of long term residents its going to be among the lowest in the world (but this part is just my observation and there are no stats out there to prove this). Personally I think Canada has some major policy problems that are hurting Canadian citizens en mass. But with the level of PCness I don't expect anything to change anytime soon and Canadians will continue suffering for no reason. Because when people get pushed out of their community then it is because they are suffering.

So you obviously did not open my link here it is for reference again http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/Statist.../Mobility.aspx

Cheers,

Very interesting indeed. (click on the excel or first pdf file for those of you that are confused).

People are leaving Greater Vancouver for other parts of the province at a rate of ~3000-4000 people per year.

People are moving to the Fraser Valley from other parts of the province by about ~1000 people per year.

Between 2003 and 2011 people were moving to Vancouver from other provinces by about 3000 people per year, but between 2012 and 2014 moved away from Vancouver to other provinces by about 2000 per year.

Meanwhile, international migration has brought 25,000 to 40,000 per year moving into Greater Vancouver and ~1500 per year moving into Fraser Valley.

[WarrenC12]

If the rate of population loss in Metro Vancouver is made up by 10x the number of immigrants settling in the area, you can hardly call that "Metro Vancouver population decline" as noted above.

[KPELLY]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

If the rate of population loss in Metro Vancouver is made up by 10x the number of immigrants settling in the area, you can hardly call that "Metro Vancouver population decline" as noted above.

I think he understands that.

I think his point is while tons of international immigrants are moving to Vancouver, Vancouverites are moving to other places in BC.

And even though BC has been getting a lot of migrants from other provinces, they are not going to Metro Vancouver or Fraser Valley, they are mostly moving to other areas in the province.

However, it is also completely possible that many of the immigrants that move to Vancouver make up a large share of those who move away from the city eventually. But theres not enough information to tell one way or the other.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

If the rate of population loss in Metro Vancouver is made up by 10x the number of immigrants settling in the area, you can hardly call that "Metro Vancouver population decline" as noted above.

Just wait until the boomers start dying off (en masse!) in about 10-15 years from now. Huge population adjustment.

this thought keeps me up at night.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by djmk

Just wait until the boomers start dying off (en masse!) in about 10-15 years from now. Huge population adjustment.

this thought keeps me up at night.

We'll be in a new golden age of lower healthcare costs and support payments.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Anecdotally I know a lot of people planning to leave Vancouver, but I know equally large numbers of people from elsewhere in Canada who want to move here.

[ssiguy]

Greater Vancouver is not declining in the slightest but it is not growing nearly as fast as it could especially from inter-provincial migration. Mention to anyone outside BC the first thing they think of when they think of Vancouver and the word "expensive" is their first response. BC is referred to as Bring Cash. It greatly inhibits the skilled moving here and is an incentive for the skilled to leave.

Still, primarily due to immigration, Vancouver's population is steady and decent at about 1.2% per year. The number of condos going up may look like it is growing much faster than it is but that is, like all of North America, more of an indication of changing demographics than it is of strong population growth.

To use my family as an example.............We were a family of 6 with 4 kids in Ontario under one roof. Now my sister has only one child and with dad gone we are still a family of 6 but occupy 5 different residences. All situations are different, most families will have more kids, and people move into the house we vacated but I think you see my point.

Also Vancouver's condo boom is also related to the fact that Vancouver city has a very low birth rate primarily due to kids being expensive and affording even a 2 bedroom condo is beyond the reach of many.

It is for these reasons, amongst others, that the city itself isn't growing very quickly and not nearly as quickly as one would think with all the new towers. The growing population in the high rises is off set by the declining population in more established areas where the family of 6 in Kerrisdale or Marpole in the 1970s may now only have Mom and/or Dad still living in it.

[zahav]

Although it is true that between 2012-2014 Vancouver lost residents to other provinces, the general interpovincial migration for the entire province was also lower in these years. The figues I postred starting this thread are brand new as of Oct. 1 2015, showing the highest provincial interprovincial migration since 1995. I'd suspect (i could be wrong, but somehow don't think so) that when the full breakdown of 2015 is released next year, it will show Metro vancouver gained population from other provinces, not lost. We likely still lost to other parts of BC because that is an historic trend, but I suspect we gained quite a few interprovincially. The province gained a net 6,300 people in 1 quarter, I can bet a decent portion of that went to metro van!

[WarrenC12]

I wonder if people show up in Vancouver from other parts of Canada without much of a plan, and then realize there are good resource jobs in the hinterlands and move there. Ditto if you move here for some kind of trades or school program.

[Bcasey25raptor]

I know plenty of people who moved here from Ontario and actually find the cost of living here less. They are renting mind you, but overall, the cost of living here for regular items isn't any more expensive than elsewhere. I find food costs between Vancouver and Calgary are pretty much the same, rent out there is higher (I looked), and energy costs are WAY higher. Real estate and gas is more expensive here however, it's overall a tie.

[GMD]

I always assumed that the negative intraprovincial migration for Vancouver was people cashing out and moving to Parksville, Sooke, wherever. If I was near retirement age I'd probably do that myself.

The high housing prices really are a killer when it comes to trying to get people to move here for a job - especially when you are hiring mid-level positions (i.e. for people senior enough to want a house but not so high up the pay scale that money is no object). We've been trying to hire someone for 6 months at my work and have had a few good candidates turn the job down once they looked at housing prices vs. what we were offering in salary.

[Klazu]

Originally Posted by GMD

The high housing prices really are a killer when it comes to trying to get people to move here for a job - especially when you are hiring mid-level positions (i.e. for people senior enough to want a house but not so high up the pay scale that money is no object). We've been trying to hire someone for 6 months at my work and have had a few good candidates turn the job down once they looked at housing prices vs. what we were offering in salary.

I remember reading sometime ago that local tech companies are having troubles of even finding executives willing to move to Vancouver because of the housing prices. Even with salaries in the hundreds of thousands many are apparently coming to the conclusion that they can make the same (or more) elsewhere and having not to pay nearly as much for housing.

If there is any truth to that, we really have a problem if even C-level staff is unwilling to pay Vancouver prices.

[Pinion]

I was thinking about NHL free agency today and even NHL players, who are basically mercenaries, would be like "gee whiz, a house in Vancouver costs me a whole year's salary" and not sign here.