The Metropolises of Tomorrow

[Razor]

Yes I still remember visiting friends in Windsor back when.As we headed towards the Ambassador bridge for my first time, I was amazed at how the Detroit's skyline seemed to blend into Windsor's as if it was one city. Even during the daytime when the river was hidden from view.

[north 42]

Originally Posted by Razor

Yes I still remember visiting friends in Windsor back when.As we headed towards the Ambassador bridge for my first time, I was amazed at how the Detroit's skyline seemed to blend into Windsor's as if it was one city. Even during the daytime when the river was hidden from view.

Yes, from certain parts of DT Windsor, Detroit's skyline blends into Windsor's skyline, making you feel that you are in a much larger city than 350,000! only when you get down to the riverfront do you realize it's a different city!

[isaidso]

This is downtown Windsor but those big buildings at the end of the view corridor; that's Detroit. Quite the optical illusion!

Detroit from Windsor, 1963

Courtesy of s-media

Downtown Windsor; Detroit in the distance

Courtesy of equalmarriage.ca


Courtesy of magnatomix

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

The Metropolises of Tomorrow




I created this thread to discuss how the demographic growth will forge new metropolises and expand the borders of the current ones.

I'll start with examples in the US and Brazil:

-------------------------------- 2014 -------- 2010 ----- Growth %
BosWash ------------------- 51,164,919 --- 49,788,631 --- 2.76%
Southern California ------ 22,254,387 --- 21,396,214 --- 4.01%
Chicagoland --------------- 11,972,216 --- 11,866,918 --- 0.89%
Greater Bay Area --------- 11,918,876 --- 11,338,725 --- 5.12%

BosWash --- New York, Washington-Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, Hartford, Springfield CSAs and Lancaster MSA
SoCal --- Los Angeles CSA and San Diego and Santa Barbara MSAs
Chicagoland --- Chicago and Milwaukee CSAs
G. Bay Area --- San Francisco, Sacramento and Modesto CSAs

-------------------------------- 2014 -------- 2013 ----- Growth %
São Paulo ------------------ 33,596,475 --- 33,304,296 --- 0.88%
Rio de Janeiro ------------- 15,242,909 --- 15,161,638 --- 0.54%

São Paulo --- Metropolitana de São Paulo, Macro Metropolitana Paulista, Vale do Paraíba, Campinas and Piracicaba mesorregions and the microrregion of Itanhaém
Rio de Janeiro --- the entire state minus Norte e Noroeste mesorregions

As we finally reached 2020 and both countries will held their census, I'm bumping the thread with the latest estimates and when the first figures were be released few months from now, we can confirm where this areas are heading to.

-------------------------------- 2018 -------- 2010 ----- Growth %

BosWash ------------------- 52,794,872 --- 51,007,529 --- 3.50%
Southern California ------- 22,554,705 --- 21,396,601 --- 5.41%
Greater Bay Area ---------- 12,285,809 --- 11,338,975 --- 8.35%
Chicagoland --------------- 11,916,301 --- 11,867,405 --- 0.41%

São Paulo ----------------- 35,354,996 --- 31,894,697 -- 10.85%
Rio de Janeiro ------------ 16,192,648 --- 15,084,461 --- 7.35%

There were minor changes on US definitions as they've changed their CSA/MSA boundaries since then. We can see a slow down all across the board as the country as a whole slowed down considerably. Chicagoland here is on negative since the last update and fell below Bay Area. BosWash slowed down a lot on the centre while the northern and southern extremes (Boston and Washington) are the ones growing fast.

In Brazil, we probably see lower numbers than the estimate. Probably the 2018 number will be the number for the 2020 Census. As Brazilian domestic migration nowadays are much much smaller than in the US, we don't see dramatic shifts. It's mostly driven by natural growth, births minus deaths.

Rio-São Paulo is posed to overtake Bos-Wash as the most populated megalopolis on the American continent somewhere in the 2020's, depending on the definition used. Interesting to notice that is much more São Paulo centric than it used to be when the term was used first (hence "Rio" appearing ahead).

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Next year will be interesting, as Canadians hold their inter-census, and we'll be able to see how their metro areas growth has been developing. I'd guess the Greater Golden Horseshoe will have been slowed down. They will probably count 10-11 million people by 2021.

Another interesting case will be London expanded area (London, East and Southeast England). Over 25 million people will be living there by 2021 UK Census.

As most of former British Empire countries, UK and Canada will held their next census in 2021.

Southeast England will probably not reach the 25 million mark but it's growing in a fast pace:

----- 2018 ------- 2011 ------ Growth
24,242,920 --- 22,655,656 --- 7.01%

About Greater Golden Horseshoe, it reached 9,245,438 inh. in the 2016 Census, making up 68.75% of Ontario population that year.

As I didn't find the numbers of 2019 estimate for that area, I used Ontario's figures and kept the GGH share. That would be 10,014,501. 10.4 million probably will be the population for the region counted next year.

[Yuri]

Another country holding a census this year is Mexico. Here's a chart of with their megalopolis:

-------------------- 2015 -------- 2010 ---- Growth

Mexico City ------ 27.442.800 -- 25.804.169 --- 6.35%
Puebla ------------ 2.941.988 --- 2.728.790 --- 7.81%
Pachuca ------------- 557.093 ----- 512.196 --- 8.77%
Tlaxcala ------------ 540.273 ----- 499.567 --- 8.15%
Tula ---------------- 225.219 ----- 205.812 --- 9.43%
CENTRAL MEXICO --- 31.707.373 -- 29.750.534 --- 6.58%

"Mexico City" defined as DF, Mexico and Morelos states. The other components are the official metro areas. There will probably be a slow down on the second half of decade, so I'd say the Central Mexico will reach 33.5 million inh. or so in 2020.

That compares to the 35 million of São Paulo Macrometropolis and the 33 million of the "New York-Philadelphia CSA". São Paulo and Mexico regions growing at 9-10%/decade and NY-Philly with a sluggish 2-3%/decade.

[The North One]

What is driving São Paulo/Brazil's growth rates? Is it mostly births?

It seems they've already got big problems with overpopulation, this crazy growth is just making it harder for them.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by The North One

What is driving São Paulo/Brazil's growth rates? Is it mostly births?

It seems they've already got big problems with overpopulation, this crazy growth is just making it harder for them.

São Paulo metro area and state have always grown faster than Brazil, but last decade 11% vs 12%. Today, for all the cases, it's natural growth only (births minus deaths).

São Paulo still has a migration surplus but it pales compared to the time of the European immigration (1980's to 1940's) and Great Northeast>SP Migration between the 1960's and 1980's and the rural exodus from everywhere. All that made São Paulo to jump from a small town of 33,000 inh. in 1872 to its 21 million inh. urban area today.

Anyway, both São Paulo and Brazil TFR is well below replacement level (1.7 children), so I don't think there's an overpopulation problem. Megacities are crowded everywhere. As the population is still relatively young, there are still 2.5 more births than deaths, which translates in a rather health growth. That will soon change and population is predicted to start declining within 20 years or so.

Aside the fact of São Paulo being Brazilian primary city, its GDP per capita is twice as higher than the national average, which makes it a very attractive job market. Its peers in the continent, New York and Mexico City, however, are just slightly above their national averages.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

^^
2030 is far ahead in future. Till then, Western Java might have reached 80% urbanisation rate. Most of those 85 million people or so will live in Jakarta or Bandung areas.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Numbers from Chinese cities (2010 Census):

GUANGZHOU-SHENZHEN ------------- 38,477,930 --- 15,797 km²
SHANGHAI --------------------------------- 38,477,930 --- 18,837 km²

Guangzhou-Shenzhen --- Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan and Shenzhen prefectures
Shanghai --- Shanghai, Suzhou and Jiaxing

I believe even today they might already be regarded as ordinary metropolitan areas. They are both growing fast, and in the future they will probably capture neighbouring prefectures.

I dded two prefectures on Pearl River area:

--------------------------------- Est. 2017 -- Census 2010 -- G.% -- Area

GUANGZHOU-SHENZHEN ----------48,051,300 -- 43,161,735 -- 11.3% -- 19,247 km²
SHANGHAI ------------------- 39,522,600 -- 37,980,743 --- 4.1% -- 16,444 km²

Chinese metro areas have slowed considerably. I guess they might touch 50 million and 40 million respectively in the 2020 Census, but they are apparently reaching their limits much earlier than expected.

They will not outgrow Tokyo much and as they are polycentric, the Japanese metropolis will feel more like a big city. I guess only Jakarta and New Delhi will be the competitions in this regard.

[bossabreezes]

Brazil has one of the lowest birth rates of any developing country, if not the lowest. This will slow down at some point. The country will begin to decline in population by 2050.

Brazil's cities are overcrowded but in general it's a very empty country, with vast areas of nobody for hundreds if not thousands of square miles. It's one of the most urbanized countries in the hemisphere.

Yuri, what do you think about a future metropolis between Brasília and Goiânia? Those two cities are growing very quickly are are very close to each other for Brazilian standards. Do you think they might join together in a near future?

__

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

Brazil has one of the lowest birth rates of any developing country, if not the lowest. This will slow down at some point. The country will begin to decline in population by 2050.

Brazil's cities are overcrowded but in general it's a very empty country, with vast areas of nobody for hundreds if not thousands of square miles. It's one of the most urbanized countries in the hemisphere.

Birth rate is actually not that low as there are still many women on childbearing age. What is already low is fertility rate (around 1.7 children/per woman). In a very simplistic way, a country will decline when spend an entire generation below 2.0 children per women (there are other factors playing). Brazil is below that for almost a decade. Brazilian Statistical Office estimates Brazilian population will start to decline by 2043.

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

Yuri, what do you think about a future metropolis between Brasília and Goiânia? Those two cities are growing very quickly are are very close to each other for Brazilian standards. Do you think they might join together in a near future?

Bossa, they are not my cup of tea. Both are extremely autocentric and it's shocking the absense of dense, pedestrian friendly neighbourhoods, which is quite common for metropolises of their size.

In terms of growth, they are also slowing down as the rest of the country. They will probably grow much less than the last decade (from 25% to 15% now) and they are very far apart from each other almost 200 km away. For comparison, Washington (larger than Brasília) and Baltimore (same size of Goiânia) are only 60 km apart and even with all the US type of sprawl between them, most people don't regard both as the same metropolis.