What will Austin of the 2020s look like?

[ahealy]

Of course we can glance at NY, Miami, Chicago and LA for trends...but what will Austin spearhead (if anything) for the 20s? Out with boxy silhouettes and in with....?

[loonytoony]

Originally Posted by ahealy

Of course we can glance at NY, Miami, Chicago and LA for trends...but what will Austin spearhead (if anything) for the 20s? Out with boxy silhouettes and in with....?

Capital View Corridors will become more and more defined as density continues to increase. I imagine standing on Lamar, looking North, and seeing a whole line of 5th and Wests or Sevens on the left and right, with Capital rising up to at the end point. It'll lead to all kinds of interesting building designs.

[urbancore]

I predict higher quality condo buildings. As prices stretch past $1000/ft for condos, we could see a starchitect or two. I also predict an iconic HQ type building downtown. Either from an existing company that explodes or a relo, I think Austin lends itself to a company that wants to make a statement in their HQ, to stand out.

[the Genral]

I think we will finally see the Statesman parcel see some definitive signs of redevelopment and demo of the facility. Highrise construction will continue to move northward and east on Congress Ave. The convention center will expand vertically. ABIA will have broken ground on the new terminal, APD will be planning demo of the existing downtown location to make room for a much needed larger headquarters. By the end of 2020s, the Capitol Building will again be shrouded in scaffolding for some needed maintenance, and Camp Mabry will be decommissioned making way for some major redevelopment, something similar to Mueller and the Domain. Sometime during the 2020s, Lake Travis will see historically low levels. SXSW will see its popularity decline. Development will continue to accelerate east of 35 and south to William Cannon on Congress Ave and First Street forcing more people towards Kyle and Buda which will continue to see their populations boom. The plans for directly north of the Capitol will begin to take shape. The Erwin Center will be gone and the new UT Arena will be the new landmark along 35. There will be at least 1 or 2 more midrise implosions to make room for larger projects. We will see the return of the Dillo buses. The Long Center will see some renovations especially to the exterior. The discussion regarding light rail and I35 will continue. The population under our bridges and overpasses will continue to grow
with both bats and homeless people and extend further north and south of the city. Riverside Drive will be unrecognizable by the end of the decade. Austin will have a female Mayor. MLS will be successful, and NASCAR will not be at COTA. The crown on the Independent will finally be lit.

[We vs us]

Almost all of the major speculative parcels we discuss here regularly will fill out: Statesman site, downtown post office block, Broadmoor, the balance of the Domain, Project Catalyst. McKalla and environs.

We'll set a firm direction on public trans and spend the '20s building it out.

ABIA will triple in size.

We'll get a couple 700-footers announced, if not built.

All the easy downtown parcels will fill in, and developers will increasingly turn to up-developing places that are underused -- places like parking garages, or single story buildings, or even plots that have utility uses (I keep thinking that eventually private money will pay to relo that power station on Shoal Creek; same kind of pressure will eventually hit the state of texas parking garage+chiller station on 4th).

[Riverranchdrone]

Originally Posted by the Genral

I think we will finally see the Statesman parcel see some definitive signs of redevelopment and demo of the facility. Highrise construction will continue to move northward and east on Congress Ave. The convention center will expand vertically. ABIA will have broken ground on the new terminal, APD will be planning demo of the existing downtown location to make room for a much needed larger headquarters. By the end of 2020s, the Capitol Building will again be shrouded in scaffolding for some needed maintenance, and Camp Mabry will be decommissioned making way for some major redevelopment, something similar to Mueller and the Domain. Sometime during the 2020s, Lake Travis will see historically low levels. SXSW will see its popularity decline. Development will continue to accelerate east of 35 and south to William Cannon on Congress Ave and First Street forcing more people towards Kyle and Buda which will continue to see their populations boom. The plans for directly north of the Capitol will begin to take shape. The Erwin Center will be gone and the new UT Arena will be the new landmark along 35. There will be at least 1 or 2 more midrise implosions to make room for larger projects. We will see the return of the Dillo buses. The Long Center will see some renovations especially to the exterior. The discussion regarding light rail and I35 will continue. The population under our bridges and overpasses will continue to grow
with both bats and homeless people and extend further north and south of the city. Riverside Drive will be unrecognizable by the end of the decade. Austin will have a female Mayor. MLS will be successful, and NASCAR will not be at COTA. The crown on the Independent will finally be lit.

Wow. Detailed on parts yet, generic on others but I think you painted a very accurate picture of the Austin area at that time. The camp mabry idea was a shock but I can see that. It would be a huge fight I think though.

[AusTxDevelopment]

Originally Posted by Riverranchdrone

Wow. Detailed on parts yet, generic on others but I think you painted a very accurate picture of the Austin area at that time. The camp mabry idea was a shock but I can see that. It would be a huge fight I think though.

Camp Mabry was established in 1892, is the third oldest active military installation in Texas, and the original 85-acre camp section was added to the National Registry of Historic Places in 1996. Huge fight is an understatement. Also, the topsoil cleanup of 127 years worth of ordnance and fuel leakage (dumping) scattered around Mabry would be very expensive. Parts of it could probably qualify as a brownfield site. But you can't beat the location.

I agree with you that The General's vision is spot-on otherwise! Well done.

[Novacek]

Robinson Ranch?

(And by that I mean the actual master planned development including residential, not just isolated parcels).

[urbancore]

Originally Posted by AusTxDevelopment

Camp Mabry was established in 1892, is the third oldest active military installation in Texas, and the original 85-acre camp section was added to the National Registry of Historic Places in 1996. Huge fight is an understatement. Also, the topsoil cleanup of 127 years worth of ordnance and fuel leakage (dumping) scattered around Mabry would be very expensive. Parts of it could probably qualify as a brownfield site. But you can't beat the location.

I agree with you that The General's vision is spot-on otherwise! Well done.

I agree, I can't see Mabry...but whatever happened to the State sale/development of the State Hospital site and the other site that was close to Mabry? I can see those happening.

Also, something something....I35!

[GoldenBoot]

Austin's MSA will grow from ~2.4 million (2020) to ~3.3 million (2030).

[the Genral]

I'm not sure what kind of fight would or could be put up if the US Gov't decides to close the base at Mabry. Unless its not a decision that's up to them. Bergstrom AFB was shut down so I'm just assuming Camp Mabry could be vulnerable to consolidation somewhere else since it is relatively small and cost cutting in that area of government is always ongoing, regardless of historic value. Clean up at Bergstrom and the chemical stations around the old IBM plant was expensive but doable. Opening up 80+ acres just northwest of downtown for development would be financially huge and worth the expense to someone. Anyway, not being vested either way, that's just my prediction, and wouldn't it be a whopper if my prophecy did indeed come to fruition??? I've been waiting for the proverbial shoe to drop at Mabry for years as unlikely as it may seem.
A lot can change in 10 years.

[Azul]

I want to preface by pointing out that for some reason I word everything as a certainty when it’s really just my own opinion/projection, hopefully this isn’t confusing.


2020-2022 the general tech sector is in the center of a national recession due to overvaluation of their markets with potential misguided regulations also a factor. It won’t be a severe recession overall but I’d assume it will affect Austin more than we’re used to feeling. I would suspect that layoffs won’t be an issue but job growth, population growth, and commercial market growth could flatline for a couple years.

2022 Kathie Tovo runs and wins the mayoral election becomes Austin’s first female mayor. A major component of her pitch will be on local artery improvements (particularly Lamar, Guad, and Burnet) aligned with Capital Metro’s Project Connect plans, an improved I-35 through downtown, raising commercial property taxes with particular aim at the recent influx of tech companies, and a more restrictive zoning/development process.

2023 the new Austin State Hospital is complete and renovated with UT as an operating partner. The State then begins phasing out some campus buildings and primes the land to be redeveloped. We’ll see a fairly major project proposed near or next to Central Market that’ll help refund the State some of the money invested into their renovations.

2024-2030 the Convention Center expansion is underway, but more importantly Waller Creek begins to be fully utilized and commercialized with creek-from restaurants and bars stringing from 6th Street down to Rainey St.

2025 Capital Metro puts its first autonomous bus out on the streets.

2025 - Austin (metro) will welcome it’s 2,500,000th citizen

2025 Austin FC is overall successful and proves that there’s a market for professional sports in Austin which sparks NBA expansion talks but ultimately does not go through. Seattle gets one expansion team and Kansas City takes the spot the NBA tapped Austin for. (Side note: I think around this time you’ll hear MLB to San Antonio talks).

2028 - Austin (city limits) will welcome it’s 1,500,000th citizen

[H2O]

Originally Posted by Azul

I want to preface by pointing out that for some reason I word everything as a certainty when it’s really just my own opinion/projection, hopefully this isn’t confusing.

2022 Kathie Tovo runs and wins the mayoral election becomes Austin’s first female mayor. A major component of her pitch will be on local artery improvements (particularly Lamar, Guad, and Burnet) aligned with Capital Metro’s Project Connect plans, an improved I-35 through downtown, raising commercial property taxes with particular aim at the recent influx of tech companies, and a more restrictive zoning/development process.

Carol Keaton Strayhorn Rylander Smith Jones was Austin's first female mayor.

I predict Jimmy Flannigan will beat her in 2022 to become Austin's first (openly) gay mayor.

[Azul]

Originally Posted by H2O

Carol Keaton Strayhorn Rylander Smith Jones was Austin's first female mayor.

I predict Jimmy Flannigan will beat her in 2022 to become Austin's first (openly) gay mayor.

No way! TIL.

I'd sign off on Jimmy for Mayor, I personally love what he's bringing to Council right now

[atxsnail]

Originally Posted by Azul

No way! TIL.

I'd sign off on Jimmy for Mayor, I personally love what he's bringing to Council right now

he'd get my vote. i've kind of gotten the impression that he's even more popular outside his district than he is within. i wonder if that would also make him Austin's first renter mayor? probably not, but i don't know how anyone could research that

[ahealy]

Damn, Genral... That all feels spot on. I'm really REALLY hoping the homelessness/lake levels part is way off though.

I hope to see several new 700ft-800ft projects inspired by the 80's and early 90's with a pink granite neo-deco kinda theme, oh, and no more flat mechanical penthouses. I REALLY hope we're not worrying about mass public transportation through the next decade, but I've learned to not hold my breath with this city...and it's voters. I do think rail will be less of a thing as autonomous EVs become more mainstream.

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by Azul

2025 - Austin (metro) will welcome it’s 2,500,000th citizen

I think it is more likely that the Austin MSA will have in the neighborhood of 2.7-2.8 million in 2025. They should pass 2.5 in 2021 or 2022. Census bureau pegged Austin as having a little over 2.1 in July of 2017.

[ATXboom]

Originally Posted by ILUVSAT

I think it is more likely that the Austin MSA will have in the neighborhood of 2.7-2.8 million in 2025. They should pass 2.5 in 2021 or 2022. Census bureau pegged Austin as having a little over 2.1 in July of 2017.

Agree. 2.5M is a little low for '25. The CB estimated a little over 2.2M in '18. Conservatively we gain 60K/yr but this has been increasing as the metro grows... Even at 60K/yr we cross 2.6M in '25. My hunch is inline with yours... 2.7-2.8M

[Riverranchdrone]

Originally Posted by ATXboom

Agree. 2.5M is a little low for '25. The CB estimated a little over 2.2M in '18. Conservatively we gain 60K/yr but this has been increasing as the metro grows... Even at 60K/yr we cross 2.6M in '25. My hunch is inline with yours... 2.7-2.8M

What If we do get that recession? Then that growth would slow a bit.

[the Genral]

Originally Posted by ahealy

Damn, Genral... That all feels spot on. I'm really REALLY hoping the homelessness/lake levels part is way off though.

Its already trending upward. I can speak to the northern end. First, the bats. We all know about the huge colonies under the Congress Bridge and the half huge colony under the I35 overpass at McNeil in Round Rock. I'm seeing more and more bats in the overpasses at I35 and Wells Branch and I35 / Howard Lane. Which brings me to the homeless. I pass them almost every day under the overpasses at I35 / Parmer, Howard, Wells Branch and Grand Avenue. There is a rather large camp under the overpass at Howard and a smaller at Grand Ave. I see the regulars, but there always seem to be new faces almost daily. They pan handle in shifts. Not long ago there were monthly clean sweeps where trucks would come in and clean up the mess and the police would clear them out. Not anymore. I talk to a few of them and met a newbie to the Howard overpass camp. Her name is Tammy. She frequents our recycle dumpster daily. Her camp is near a Home Depot and a Walmart. On any given day you can count almost 20 shopping carts from both those stores. There are a growing number of tents and cardboard shanties all butted up against each other. Tammy said she left the tough competition of Downtown to the "greener pastures in the burbs and beyond".
As these homeless camps continue to grow, in plain sight, its obvious that the larger they get, the safer they feel and the less any city officials know what to do with them, so they are basically left alone, and then because the population and traffic continues to grow away from downtown, the success of pan handling seems to be sustainable with less competition than downtown.
But as the Howard overpass camp fills up, the other overpasses up the road will take on the overflows. I think the word is out that nobody messes with them up here, so hear they come and will continue to come. There are literally homeless pan handlers on every intersection on 183 to Cedar Park and from Parmer, to even Georgetown. During the 2020s, the scale of this will become a crisis and they may need to open up a shelter and soup kitchen somewhere between Pflugerville and Round Rock. Yet no one seems to be talking about this...yet. They will.