National Political Polls Discussion

[thurmas]

Latest Angus Reid Poll: Tories 35% Liberals 35%NDP 18%

http://montrealgazette.com/news/loca...tops-in-quebec

Putting these results into www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html
seat calculator you would have 146 Conservative 149 Liberals 39 NDP 3 Bloc and 1 Green

[MonctonRad]

The honeymoon is clearly over for JT.

i wonder what the poor showing in recent polls will mean for his proposed tax "reforms".

[Loco101]

The Trudeau Liberals would easily win a majority at this point. Their approval rating is still quite high. The economy is also doing well almost everywhere in Canada.

The Nanos polls haven't really shown any change in support and they are done by telephone rather than online.

[SignalHillHiker]

Corporate Research Associates (they're the Halifax-based, I believe, group that polls extensively in Atlantic Canada rather than lumping us all together).

If a federal election were held today, for which party would you vote?

LIBERAL
NL: 72%
PEI: 61%
NS: 59%
NB: 59%

CONSERVATIVE
NB: 27%
NS: 22%
PEI: 21%
NL: 17%

NDP
NS: 16%
NL: 10%
PEI: 9%
NB: 8%

GREEN
PEI: 9%
NB: 4%
NS: 3%
NL: 0%

OTHER
NL: 1%
NS: 0%
NB: 0%
PEI: 0%

https://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/20...84320392-1.pdf

[MonctonRad]

It is possible, even with numbers like this, that the Tories could still pick up 2-3 seats in NB. Conservative votes in NB are heavily concentrated in southwestern NB and Albert County. The Acadian regions meanwhile are a wasteland. As such, I know my vote will be a wasted vote.........

PEI & NL will be completely red - no question. There's always a chance the Tories could pick up a seat in northern NS.

So, in Atlantic Canada, if an election were held today, my prediction would be LIB - 29, CON - 3, NDP - 0

Despite this, I think the general election will be a whole lot closer, thanks to rural Ontario & western Canada. The next government will likely be a minority one.

[SignalHillHiker]

Agreed (except, of course, that I'm happy about those theoretic results).

The only competitive seat in Newfoundland and Labrador will be St. John's East. Last election, Liberal Nick Whelan defeated incumbent New Democrat Jack Harris 46.73% versus 45.29%. Harris won with 71.22% of the vote in 2011, and 74.55% in 2008. Prior to that, it was reliably (often by more than 50% of the vote) a Progressive Conservative seat - but, you know, Harper changed that.

Since Confederation in 1949, the Tories have held it from:

1949-1953
1957-1963
1968-1984
1988-1993
1997-2006

So, if the Conservative Party can convince people here that (from a local perspective) the crazy social Conservatives in the former Alliance are not in charge, they could return. But, more likely, the NDP will get it back from the Liberals if they run Jack Harris. I suspect, though, that the Conservatives are finished in St. John's for a few generations yet. The sheer hatred for Harper and the Alliance broke the spell of simply going through the motions, following family allegiances, and voting against the Liberals because Liberal = Confederation (which St. John's voted overwhelmingly against). That natural preference for the Tories is, as far as I can tell, gone for good. Our "naqba" in the sense of underlying issues that impact every election has now been replaced with Harper, so the subconscious, unthinking, reflexive votes are no longer going to the Tories.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Agreed (except, of course, that I'm happy about those theoretic results).

The only competitive seat in Newfoundland and Labrador will be St. John's East. Last election, Liberal Nick Whelan defeated incumbent New Democrat Jack Harris 46.73% versus 45.29%. Harris won with 71.22% of the vote in 2011, and 74.55% in 2008. Prior to that, it was reliably (often by more than 50% of the vote) a Progressive Conservative seat - but, you know, Harper changed that.

Since Confederation in 1949, the Tories have held it from:

1949-1953
1957-1963
1968-1984
1988-1993
1997-2006

So, if the Conservative Party can convince people here that (from a local perspective) the crazy social Conservatives in the former Alliance are not in charge, they could return. But, more likely, the NDP will get it back from the Liberals if they run Jack Harris. I suspect, though, that the Conservatives are finished in St. John's for a few generations yet. The sheer hatred for Harper and the Alliance broke the spell of simply going through the motions, following family allegiances, and voting against the Liberals because Liberal = Confederation (which St. John's voted overwhelmingly against). That natural preference for the Tories is, as far as I can tell, gone for good. Our "naqba" in the sense of underlying issues that impact every election has now been replaced with Harper, so the subconscious, unthinking, reflexive votes are no longer going to the Tories.

It will be a key task for Scheer (and Brown in Ontario) between now and the next election. Watch for the Liberals to take more intiatives to try to bait the social conservatives - we've recently seen two examples in the chair of the Status of Women Committee kerfuffle in Ottawa and Toronto's initiative to ban abortion protestors from within 50 metres of abortion clinics.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Agreed (except, of course, that I'm happy about those theoretic results).

The only competitive seat in Newfoundland and Labrador will be St. John's East. Last election, Liberal Nick Whelan defeated incumbent New Democrat Jack Harris 46.73% versus 45.29%. Harris won with 71.22% of the vote in 2011, and 74.55% in 2008. Prior to that, it was reliably (often by more than 50% of the vote) a Progressive Conservative seat - but, you know, Harper changed that.

Since Confederation in 1949, the Tories have held it from:

1949-1953
1957-1963
1968-1984
1988-1993
1997-2006

So, if the Conservative Party can convince people here that (from a local perspective) the crazy social Conservatives in the former Alliance are not in charge, they could return. But, more likely, the NDP will get it back from the Liberals if they run Jack Harris. I suspect, though, that the Conservatives are finished in St. John's for a few generations yet. The sheer hatred for Harper and the Alliance broke the spell of simply going through the motions, following family allegiances, and voting against the Liberals because Liberal = Confederation (which St. John's voted overwhelmingly against). That natural preference for the Tories is, as far as I can tell, gone for good. Our "naqba" in the sense of underlying issues that impact every election has now been replaced with Harper, so the subconscious, unthinking, reflexive votes are no longer going to the Tories.

Except with Scheer the crazy social conservatives are still in charge.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Except with Scheer the crazy social conservatives are still in charge.

If he doesn't pursue (and actively puts down - wait for it) a social conservative agenda, does it actually matter? Although fear of a "hidden agenda" has been a powerful tool in the past, maybe it still has some life.

[GlassCity]

It's too early to predict yet, let's see how the pot legalization goes and also if that infrastructure money will start getting spent soon. Still 2 years to go. Regardless, I still expect a Liberal majority. I don't see them having done anything that would be offensive to too many people. The Conservative brand is still tarnished I think and I have my doubts as to how far Singh can push the NDP this election.

[lio45]

It all depends on Singh. If the NDP chose to disband effective immediately the 2019 election would produce a LPC majority for sure, but the NDP exists and the 2019 election will be a FPTP one (despite JT's firm promise, so I'm obviously rooting for his lying to come back to bite him in the ass).

[ssiguy]

I agree. It would be great to see Trudeau's blatant lie on election reform come back and haunt him. He clearly changed his mind when FPTP worked for him and it would be great to see that same system he said he disliked be his downfall.

Ontario as ussual will e the key. Ontario has a nearly flawless record in the last 50 years of voting in the opposite party that is reigning at Queen's Park. If the Tories win next year in Ontario, that could mean bad news for the federal Tories and of course vice-versa.

[1overcosc]

First off.. ignore anything other than Nanos. #1 rule to follow with federal politics. They update every week, and they're available at http://www.nanosresearch.com/data. Their track record is nearly perfect, they call every election almost perfectly, whereas everyone else is hit-or-miss.

Their numbers show a statistical Liberal lead in every single poll taken since JT became PM (has any government ever maintained a lead in the polls for the entire half of its first term before?). Over the course of September-October there has been a tightening in the numbers and it's looking closer; as of last update the Liberals were at 37% and the Tories at 32%, for a 5 point Liberal lead. This is narrower than the 7 point lead the Liberals had in the election, and narrower than the 10-12 point lead they had over most of the spring and summer.

In every single week since the election, Conservative support has been lower than, or statistically equal to, what they got in 2015.. not once have they been higher. The NDP and Greens have both had spikes statistically above their 2015 performances, however.

The gender gap is very interesting because it's insanely wide right now. Among female voters, the Liberals have an astonishing 14 point lead, but among male voters the Conservatives are actually ahead, by 4 points. That's way wider than it was in the 2015 election... since then, JT's support among men has fallen by about 4 points but his support among women has risen by 1 point.

No wonder JT keeps constantly playing up his feminist credentials.. the polling data shows women are going to be key to his re-election.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Ontario as ussual will e the key. Ontario has a nearly flawless record in the last 50 years of voting in the opposite party that is reigning at Queen's Park. If the Tories win next year in Ontario, that could mean bad news for the federal Tories and of course vice-versa.

Yeah.. Patrick Brown of the Ontario PCs defeating Kathleen Wynne (the likely result in Ontario's election next year) is good news for JT and bad news for Scheer. Brown is very much a Red Tory.. heck he's on the record as being pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and pro-carbon tax, he associated mostly with Michael Chong during the federal Conservative leadership race, and he spends way more time complaining about government spending cuts than he does about taxes, which is a good hint about where his priorities will lie as Premier. This will make Scheer look more right-wing by comparison and thus cause discomfort to a lot of centrist and centre-right voters in the 905 regions, making it easier for Trudeau to hold onto his seats there. And furthermore.. Justin Trudeau's brand is reasonably popular among Ontarians. Kathleen Wynne's brand is not. Much of Scheer's gains in the polls in Ontario are likely a consequence of Kathleen Wynne's poor approval ratings more than anything else as a lot of people have a harder time keeping federal and provincial things separate these days (all the anti-Wynne social media groups post anti-Trudeau stuff just as often, for example). With Wynne gone, a lot of that sentiment will evaporate and it will be easier for Trudeau to regain support in the province.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Their numbers show a statistical Liberal lead in every single poll taken since JT became PM (has any government ever maintained a lead in the polls for the entire half of its first term before?). Over the course of September-October there has been a tightening in the numbers and it's looking closer; as of last update the Liberals were at 37% and the Tories at 32%, for a 5 point Liberal lead. This is narrower than the 7 point lead the Liberals had in the election, and narrower than the 10-12 point lead they had over most of the spring and summer.

So in other words, in the span of a couple of months, they've lost somewhere between most and all of what had been a comfortable mid-mandate margin. The last PM whose only win was one majority government was R. B. Bennett -- in other words, the dynamics of politics heavily favour Trudeau. Even so, it must be disappointing that he is barely leading at this point despite the cloying media attention and little-known opposition leaders.

[geotag277]

I'm pretty surprised how much Liberal support has eroded since the election. A few high profile misses (including election reform - which likely courted a lot of NDP votes), tax changes which target lowly retail employees (blunder of the century), and with the NDP finally having a leader, I can easily see the Liberals only managing to achieve a minority government next election. Maybe that will finally be the impetus to push forward with election reform, as the NDP can use it as a bargaining chip.

I have been hoping for minority governments to be the order of the day for a while. It's the only way to push towards more Canadians being represented more effectively at the Federal level. I think we are on the cusp of a different Canadian federal government dynamic.

[Boris2k7]

Electoral fairness, economic fairness, and environmental action are litmus tests for millennial voters, not to mention legalisation of cannabis. The Conservatives already lost on most of these, and seem to want to dredge up dead horses like same-sex marriage and abortion. The Liberals are really pushing their luck. I think the only thing carrying the party with younger voters is Trudeau's personal charisma.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It is possible, even with numbers like this, that the Tories could still pick up 2-3 seats in NB. Conservative votes in NB are heavily concentrated in southwestern NB and Albert County. The Acadian regions meanwhile are a wasteland. As such, I know my vote will be a wasted vote.........

CPC will almost certainly pick up 4-5 seats in Atlantic Canada in 2019 regardless of what happens. Fundy Royal was won by the Liberals by 1,800 (3%), NB Southwest by 2,000 (5.4%), and Miramichi-Grand Lake by about 4,800 (13%). The first two are well-within most vote swing projections, and that doesn't take into account a national NDP which will likely be vote-splitting more than in 2015.

These three ridings saw 30% vote swings in 2015 and it's not difficult to imagine at least 10% back to the Conservatives. -10% to Liberals and +10% to the Conservatives puts half of NB's 10 seats in play in 2019.

[1overcosc]

Definitely agreed that the cannabis legalization rollout will matter. Right now there's a pretty big consensus among a lot of younger voters that the proposed systems are too restrictive. Granted... most of those decisions are being made by the provinces. There's nothing stopping a province from choosing to have a free-for-all of barely regulated private dispensaries selling cannabis with minimal taxation. However, I honestly don't think voters these days are smart enough to properly assign blame to levels of government, and come 2019 when millennials are angered by the overly restrictive sales of cannabis in Ontario they'll probably blame Trudeau a lot more than they should.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Definitely agreed that the cannabis legalization rollout will matter. Right now there's a pretty big consensus among a lot of younger voters that the proposed systems are too restrictive. Granted... most of those decisions are being made by the provinces. There's nothing stopping a province from choosing to have a free-for-all of barely regulated private dispensaries selling cannabis with minimal taxation. However, I honestly don't think voters these days are smart enough to properly assign blame to levels of government, and come 2019 when millennials are angered by the overly restrictive sales of cannabis in Ontario they'll probably blame Trudeau a lot more than they should.

There are so many politically painful ways in which that can go wrong.

I don't know why they wouldn't or shouldn't blame Trudeau when it was quite predictable that those who actually had to figure out the logistics of legalization were going to take a conservative approach. I doubt Trudeau had given two minutes' thought to the nitty-gritty of legalization when he made the promise in the first place - details aren't really his thing.