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Originally Posted by isaidso
Yes, Heathrow was #1 for a very long time. Even with expansion I think Heathrow would have eventually ceded to some place in the Middle East. Dubai is in the sweet spot between Europe, Asia, and Africa. Even that 171 million passenger figure for all London airports will likely get surpassed by a city in Asia. It feels like it's more a matter of 'when' rather than 'if'. Asia will eventuallly dwarf the West in almost every metric.
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I can easily see lists for the busiest airports become increasingly dominated by Asian hubs, but over the long-term I suspect a lot of that growth will be through domestic, rather than international growth, which will benefit the established hubs. Tourism from emerging markets to Paris, London, etc… will be unprecedented in the coming decades.
On the discussion of Heathrow, the airport has been capacity constrained for a considerable period of time now (c.98%) due to having only two runways. That Heathrow has continued to see passenger growth is pretty much down to a remodelling of the airport to increase throughput, larger capacity planes and higher utilisation of planes. A third runway has been on the cards for a long time (and is still someway off), and there has been talk for several decades for a replacement of Heathrow which hasn’t come to fruition.
The other London airports fare little better with one runway each; Gatwick has been pushing for a second runway for a long time.
The latest plan is for a high-speed line that bypasses London to directly connect Heathrow and Gatwick (in just 15mins) and Birmingham and Manchester airports, in essence creating a mega-hub connected within 80mins. Just building more runways would be a start!
https://expedition.uk.com/thinking/h...-speed-trains/