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  #141  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2012, 11:00 PM
phesto phesto is offline
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^And find something that isn't 3 years old???

I personally believe we are in for much steeper price drops, but in terms of bubble talk, we simply aren't seeing big declines in average prices yet and it won't occur evenly across the region, so to suggest the entire region is in a bubble is an inaccurate and simplistic view.

For those who bother to actually look into the stats, it's pretty obvious that some submarkets were seeing completely unsustainable price gains that are/were firmly in bubble territory; just look at the 3 biggest submarket benchmark price drops over the past 6 months:

Vancouver Westside Single Family -6.3%
Richmond Single Family -6.0%
Richmond Condo -5.3%

Conversely some markets like Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, Port Moody that showed sub-inflationary growth over the past 5 years have actually increased in price over the past 3-12 months despite slowing sales.

This is why I find it laughable when the Real Estate Board president blames the tightened mortgage rules on the slowdown despite the fact that the 3-month price stats do not support this assertion whatsoever.
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  #142  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2012, 11:27 PM
twoNeurons twoNeurons is offline
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Originally Posted by osirisboy View Post
Thank you for posting that, couldnt agree more... people confuse a softening market with a "bubble" bursting. I swear theres certain people that have a bubble fetish.. everything is this big bubble thats going to burst, ugh
Those are purely marketing terms... which essentially mean the same thing. In the real estate business they call it a "major correction" or a "softening market" because they are in the business of maintaining stability. In the media, they call it a bubble, because they get more eyeballs that way. They equate to the same thing. Prices going down and returning to fundamental levels. The faster it climbed, the longer the fall lasts.

Real estate bubbles don't pop like stock markets, they spring a leak until the pressure is equalized... and you end up with a deflated market with people who are afraid to buy. No one wants to buy a losing asset... and people naturally tend to buy high and sell low.

Remember that the ones who are in for a world of pain are recent first-time buyers who are overleveraged. The banks giving away 0-down 40-year mortgages, for example. Even those that signed 30-year mortgages can't renew for longer than 25-years as of this year. That effectively has the same result on your monthly payment as a rise in the interest rate, but is realized later when the "softening" is in full force.

Although losses aren't realized until people sell, there is a large section of people set to retire in the next 5 to 10 years who may have had a lot of their retirement money vaporized. These are people who were likely planning on selling. They'll either work longer (not freeing up jobs for younger ones) or they'll take the cut and sell.

IN any case, the banks will be fine. They've been diversifying into Rental properties and commercial for the last 5 years. Average Joe will suffer, just like he did in 1981 (different market and reasons, but same result).
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  #143  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2012, 12:35 AM
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logan5 logan5 is online now
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Originally Posted by twoNeurons View Post
Real estate bubbles don't pop like stock markets, they spring a leak until the pressure is equalized... and you end up with a deflated market with people who are afraid to buy. No one wants to buy a losing asset... and people naturally tend to buy high and sell low.
If you are in real estate for the long term, it is still a pretty stable investment, as well as providing you with a home. If you are looking for quick profits then you would not go near property in Vancouver, yet we still see strong pre sales for new condo's and massive new development planned for Metro Van. The housing bubble rhetoric has been going on for at least 2 years now - this thread was started 2 years ago - and I haven't seen panic selling from all these property speculators that we are suppose to have here in Vancouver. I get the sense that all this overseas speculation driving up prices has been greatly overblown.
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  #144  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2012, 2:15 AM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by allan_kuan View Post
If we can adjust these figures to inflation, that might show a better picture...
OK, still a bubble:



From http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.ca
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  #145  
Old Posted Jul 20, 2014, 10:46 PM
AudiA3 AudiA3 is offline
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The bubble is here to stay, June sales were strong..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaiz_1IiK5c
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  #146  
Old Posted Jul 21, 2014, 7:08 AM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by AudiA3 View Post
The bubble is here to stay, June sales were strong..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaiz_1IiK5c
No bubble is ever here to stay. Eventually what goes up comes down.
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  #147  
Old Posted Jul 21, 2014, 7:19 AM
Pinion Pinion is offline
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There were times when I thought I had made a huge mistake by buying, from late 2008 until 2013, but places are selling again now. Sold signs everywhere around me.
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  #148  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 4:49 PM
rofina rofina is offline
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This one is too interesting not to bump.

What some of us would do now to buy anything at 2010 prices.

I closed on my condo Sept 2009 - wild ride since then.
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  #149  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 4:54 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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It's going to be ugly when the US stock market crashes at the same time as Canadian RE.
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  #150  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 4:56 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
It's going to be ugly when the US stock market crashes at the same time as Canadian RE.
Not going to happen. There might be corrections along the way, but then fundamentals are sound. The economies of both countries are doing well, as is Europe.
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  #151  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 4:58 PM
Pinion Pinion is offline
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Originally Posted by Pinion View Post
There were times when I thought I had made a huge mistake by buying, from late 2008 until 2013, but places are selling again now. Sold signs everywhere around me.
...and since this post my condo value has doubled, after being flat for a decade, and units in my building sell in 24 hours.
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  #152  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 5:01 PM
rofina rofina is offline
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Originally Posted by Pinion View Post
...and since this post my condo value has doubled, after being flat for a decade, and units in my building sell in 24 hours.


Its funny looking at the increases in last few years on the assessment notice. Wild ride up.
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  #153  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 5:05 PM
phesto phesto is offline
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Originally Posted by rofina View Post


Its funny looking at the increases in last few years on the assessment notice. Wild ride up.
Finally seeing some single family houses sell for below assessment, which is a nice trend that will likely become a lot more common over the next year or two before the assessments catch up (or down).
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  #154  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 5:07 PM
Pinion Pinion is offline
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SFH did go down for the most part this year, but yeah it should continue going down.

Condos are on fire for two years straight though, which is why I'm taking the equity and GTFOing ASAP. Unfortunately ASAP is quite slow.
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  #155  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 5:09 PM
rofina rofina is offline
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
It's going to be ugly when the US stock market crashes at the same time as Canadian RE.
That would be interesting - definitely seeing money rotate into commodities.

Logically one would start to be cautious in the 10th year of a bull market.

Still not totally convinced about RE bursting though - and don't get me wrong, I hope it does so I can buy in lower.

I think this market demonstrates that well - people are willing/able to hold.

The current market is illiquid, low listings, low sales, low activity. No one budging up, or down.

If this persists for a year or two, its a de facto correction.
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  #156  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 5:12 PM
rofina rofina is offline
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Originally Posted by phesto View Post
Finally seeing some single family houses sell for below assessment, which is a nice trend that will likely become a lot more common over the next year or two before the assessments catch up (or down).
If this persists, its akin to me winning the lotto.

Our condo is going up double digits, and houses are selling lower.

I'm not to far from jumping on the SFH train - a decent spring market for condos and slow spring market for SFH should get my foot in the door.

Here's to hoping.
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  #157  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 5:13 PM
rofina rofina is offline
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Originally Posted by Pinion View Post
SFH did go down for the most part this year, but yeah it should continue going down.

Condos are on fire for two years straight though, which is why I'm taking the equity and GTFOing ASAP. Unfortunately ASAP is quite slow.
Where are you guys off to? I remember you mentioned you plan to leave the Lower Mainland all together?
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  #158  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 5:21 PM
Pinion Pinion is offline
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Originally Posted by rofina View Post
Where are you guys off to? I remember you mentioned you plan to leave the Lower Mainland all together?
Australia. We're already allowed in but man does the processing take forever.

It's cute when people there complain about real estate prices.

"I live in a paradise beach city of 6 million people with a thriving economy and it costs me $800,000 to live in my most desired area!"
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  #159  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 5:23 PM
Vin Vin is offline
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
It's going to be ugly when the US stock market crashes at the same time as Canadian RE.
Yeah it was interesting in 2008 when it did. Interesting to watch what happened across the border that is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinion View Post
Australia. We're already allowed in but man does the processing take forever.

It's cute when people there complain about real estate prices.

"I live in a paradise beach city of 6 million people with a thriving economy and it costs me $800,000 to live in my most desired area!"
Do you think it's all that different from here? Well, maybe for the paradise beach city part....
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  #160  
Old Posted Jan 12, 2018, 5:31 PM
Pinion Pinion is offline
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Originally Posted by Vin View Post
Do you think it's all that different from here? Well, maybe for the paradise beach city part....
Yes. I'll get $10+ more per hour for a similar job and prices are not that different. Housing is cheaper, economy is better, crime is better, culture is better, weather is better, government is better, etc. A lot of this is personal preference of course, but Vancouverites think their city is way more special than it actually is. Vancouver's great, for Canada.

Also keep in mind I've lived there before (permanent resident). Even had the accent but gradually turned into a North American like Mel Gibson.
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