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  #7281  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2019, 3:06 AM
wave46 wave46 is offline
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
We don't have to equal anyone. This isn't a linear equation. If that were the case, China and India would be # 1 and #2.

All the countries below Canada in that top 15 list are more populous than Canada, btw.

So your notion of Canada being laggard among developed countries is somewhat flawed.
It's more a case of Australia and the USA having an exceptional number of seats per person.

USA: 958 million seats/327 million people = 2.9 seats per person
Australia: 79 million seats/25 million = 3.2 seats per person
Canada: 65.5 million seats/37 million = 1.8 seats...
Japan: 146 million seats/126 million = 1.2 seats...

The number is reflective of the unique conditions, geography and demographics of each country. Nobody would accuse Japan's whole economy of being underdeveloped, but using this metric alone would likely lead one to that conclusion.

I would rather us have the value-added products the Japanese produce in their economy compared to the natural resources we rely on for our well-being.
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  #7282  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2019, 5:00 PM
DDP DDP is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
It's more a case of Australia and the USA having an exceptional number of seats per person.

USA: 958 million seats/327 million people = 2.9 seats per person
Australia: 79 million seats/25 million = 3.2 seats per person
Canada: 65.5 million seats/37 million = 1.8 seats...
Japan: 146 million seats/126 million = 1.2 seats...

The number is reflective of the unique conditions, geography and demographics of each country. Nobody would accuse Japan's whole economy of being underdeveloped, but using this metric alone would likely lead one to that conclusion.

I would rather us have the value-added products the Japanese produce in their economy compared to the natural resources we rely on for our well-being.
Alternatives are a big equation why, Japan has High speed trains. If you have to go from Osaka to Tokyo, most business people would just take the train vs flying.

The bigger question should be cost differences. What does it cost to fly for similar stage distances across these countries, I would assume Canada would be high on the list. We have lots of taxes, and don't allow foreign competition which hurts competition.
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  #7283  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2019, 5:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
Our health system is mediocre, but it's not fair to compare it to ones in densely populated European nations. Ours has to provide the same levels of service (or some facsimile of) to places like Hearst, ON and Flin Flon, MB as it does to Calgary and Toronto. Not many European nations have to cope with that except maybe Sweden, Norway or Finland - all of whom have much higher tax rates. Servicing a relatively small and dense country like Denmark with health service is a much easier prospect.
This is valid if you're talking about services in Hearst or Flin Flon but not average services within Canada. Canada is a very urbanized country. Access to health care is bad in major cities too, and that is where most Canadians live and where most health care dollars are spent.

It is the same with cell service and a bunch of other markets. Sure, Nunavut would be expensive to serve. I don't think it even has cell service though. Yet providers like to pretend that their price gouging is somehow related. It's not, they simply have an oligopoly.
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  #7284  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2019, 8:05 PM
wave46 wave46 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DDP View Post
Alternatives are a big equation why, Japan has High speed trains. If you have to go from Osaka to Tokyo, most business people would just take the train vs flying.
That was my point.

Every individual country is a collection of individual factors that results in a number of domestic seats flown in a given year. I've previously outlined my reasoning why Canada's is lower than the US/Australia.

Saying 'we should be at number X' for domestic flying is silly. Maybe Canadians want to fly other places more than they want to travel in Canada - we have a huge Caribbean tourist market and the US right next door. Maybe, just maybe, Florida or Cancun is a more desirable market for travel from Canada in the winter and people go there instead of heading to Winnipeg for a vacation.

With respect to taxes: we could cut aviation taxes. Then we'd have to make that shortfall up somewhere else. I don't want to pay more income tax to effectively subsidize someone's flying, no more than I would want to pay more income tax to subsidize someone's personal pickup truck's fuel bill.

With respect to oligopoly: Australia has Qantas/Jetstar and Virgin/Tigerair. They dominate the domestic market. Opening our market to competition would mostly be the chance for American carriers to swamp the Canadian market. If you want to see oligopoly, look south - the US has 4 major carriers to serve a market of 330m people.
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  #7285  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2019, 8:06 PM
wave46 wave46 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
This is valid if you're talking about services in Hearst or Flin Flon but not average services within Canada. Canada is a very urbanized country. Access to health care is bad in major cities too, and that is where most Canadians live and where most health care dollars are spent.

It is the same with cell service and a bunch of other markets. Sure, Nunavut would be expensive to serve. I don't think it even has cell service though. Yet providers like to pretend that their price gouging is somehow related. It's not, they simply have an oligopoly.
Healthcare is a monopoly, not a oligopoly.

That's a whole different thread topic though.
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  #7286  
Old Posted Jan 4, 2019, 4:06 AM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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OAG released its annual list of top airlines / airports in terms of on time performance for 2018.

Air Canada is in 20th spot for mega airlines in terms of OTP, with 66.8%.
WestJet is in 17th spot in the LCC category, with 76.3%.
The only Canadian airports in the top 20 list for their respective passenger brackets were YEG (81.1%) and YYC (79.7%).

https://www.oag.com/2019-airport-air...ormance-report
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  #7287  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2019, 4:47 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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A true milestone.

The oldest A320 still flying, JY-JAC, msn 29, with Jordan Aviation, turned 30 years old today. Granted the frame was stored for a few years here and there.

First flight 05/01/1989

https://www.airfleets.net/ficheapp/plane-a320-29.htm

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/jy-jac

30+ years for long haul frames is nothing special, considering the lower cycles involved due to longer stage lengths. An aircraft being able to do short haul for 30 years is a true testament to the durability and longevity of the A320 program.

AC's oldest active A320, C-FDQQ, msn 59, had her first flight in Oct 1989, and is 29.2 years old.

https://www.airfleets.net/ficheapp/plane-a320-59.htm

Lufthansa also has some 29 year old A320s. Pretty impressive stuff.
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  #7288  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2019, 11:36 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
We don't have to equal anyone.
Of course we don't but some people are interested in Canada reaching its full potential in as many areas as possible. In this case Australian levels of air travel is a good benchmark for us to aim for. If we aren't, the obvious question should be why we aren't. High ticket prices, taxes, lack of low cost carriers, poor marketing, and/or competition from other modes of transportation, etc. These things need to be addressed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
All the countries below Canada in that top 15 list are more populous than Canada, btw.

So your notion of Canada being laggard among developed countries is somewhat flawed.
Just staying with the pack or doing better than some isn't something I'll ever be satisfied with, and neither should anyone in corporate Canada. They're not doing their job if that's all they're striving for.
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Last edited by isaidso; Jan 6, 2019 at 12:08 AM.
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  #7289  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2019, 11:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
It's more a case of Australia and the USA having an exceptional number of seats per person.

USA: 958 million seats/327 million people = 2.9 seats per person
Australia: 79 million seats/25 million = 3.2 seats per person
Canada: 65.5 million seats/37 million = 1.8 seats...
Japan: 146 million seats/126 million = 1.2 seats...

The number is reflective of the unique conditions, geography and demographics of each country. Nobody would accuse Japan's whole economy of being underdeveloped, but using this metric alone would likely lead one to that conclusion.
Good analysis and starting point. The worst thing we can do is not ask the questions and be satisfied with the status quo. One can't get better if one doesn't look at things with a critical eye.

There are many country specific characteristics that determine these things but we should be doing better than we are. If Canada had a national HSR system and a much smaller geography our seats per person would be more acceptable. The arrival of LCC should give us a boost. It will be interesting to see how much of a boost to passenger volumes we'll see.
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World's First Documented Gridiron Game: University College, Toronto, November 9th, 1861.
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Last edited by isaidso; Jan 6, 2019 at 12:04 AM.
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  #7290  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2019, 6:29 PM
DDP DDP is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
That was my point.

Every individual country is a collection of individual factors that results in a number of domestic seats flown in a given year. I've previously outlined my reasoning why Canada's is lower than the US/Australia.

Saying 'we should be at number X' for domestic flying is silly. Maybe Canadians want to fly other places more than they want to travel in Canada - we have a huge Caribbean tourist market and the US right next door. Maybe, just maybe, Florida or Cancun is a more desirable market for travel from Canada in the winter and people go there instead of heading to Winnipeg for a vacation.

With respect to taxes: we could cut aviation taxes. Then we'd have to make that shortfall up somewhere else. I don't want to pay more income tax to effectively subsidize someone's flying, no more than I would want to pay more income tax to subsidize someone's personal pickup truck's fuel bill.

With respect to oligopoly: Australia has Qantas/Jetstar and Virgin/Tigerair. They dominate the domestic market. Opening our market to competition would mostly be the chance for American carriers to swamp the Canadian market. If you want to see oligopoly, look south - the US has 4 major carriers to serve a market of 330m people.
Just to note, we have added a lot of taxes recently. The Ontario government since 2010 (under the Liberals) added 3. HST, Fuel aviation tax and carbon tax.

Ford removed one (carbon tax) and other two are still there. For those who don't remember from Ontario flights were PST exempt so only GST applied. Now its the full HST. Do we need that revenue or would removing it create enough economic activity to off set it, and give smaller cities more access to air travel? That is for the experts.

But one thing we as a country should be doing is trying to encourage more entrants and lower fares in this country. On a per KM basis we pay some of the highest fares in the industrialized world, and that is mostly because of lack of competition.
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  #7291  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2019, 10:31 PM
wave46 wave46 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DDP View Post
But one thing we as a country should be doing is trying to encourage more entrants and lower fares in this country. On a per KM basis we pay some of the highest fares in the industrialized world, and that is mostly because of lack of competition.
I'd say the biggest impediment to competition in Canada is the incumbent airlines who will quite happily try and squash any upcoming airline.

Air Canada had no interest in Billy Bishop airport until Porter became a thing. They're now on record as opposing jets there too and I'm pretty sure it is not because they're terribly concerned about the residents of the area.

Westjet created another airline just to keep the upcoming ULCCs from gaining a foothold. Swoop's destinations looked really similar to NewLeaf/Flair's initial ones.

Unless you're lucky with your timing (and have a solid plan) as Westjet was - Canadian went broke and the merger gave Air Canada indigestion that sent them through bankruptcy court - you're facing two dedicated incumbents who will zealously guard their turf.
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  #7292  
Old Posted Jan 9, 2019, 3:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
I'd say the biggest impediment to competition in Canada is the incumbent airlines who will quite happily try and squash any upcoming airline.

Air Canada had no interest in Billy Bishop airport until Porter became a thing. They're now on record as opposing jets there too and I'm pretty sure it is not because they're terribly concerned about the residents of the area.

Westjet created another airline just to keep the upcoming ULCCs from gaining a foothold. Swoop's destinations looked really similar to NewLeaf/Flair's initial ones.

Unless you're lucky with your timing (and have a solid plan) as Westjet was - Canadian went broke and the merger gave Air Canada indigestion that sent them through bankruptcy court - you're facing two dedicated incumbents who will zealously guard their turf.
If we opened up our market to foreign money (like most of the world), we would have more upstarts in our market. AC and Westjet get to keep there dominance because of regulations (forces competition out) and high taxes (makes the industry less attractive to new investors).

Even if we used a country like Australia's rules, our fares wold go down and competition up.
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  #7293  
Old Posted Jan 9, 2019, 3:17 PM
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https://canadianaviationnews.wordpre...eo-howard-eng/

Howard Eng Retiring from GTAA. He was great at the GTAA, turned it around from thee terrible team before him, our team worked with his guys several times. Big fan of his, his vision and how it operates.
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  #7294  
Old Posted Jan 9, 2019, 3:24 PM
wave46 wave46 is offline
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Originally Posted by DDP View Post
If we opened up our market to foreign money (like most of the world), we would have more upstarts in our market. AC and Westjet get to keep there dominance because of regulations (forces competition out) and high taxes (makes the industry less attractive to new investors).

Even if we used a country like Australia's rules, our fares wold go down and competition up.
What countries open up their domestic markets to foreign money?

The US and EU only allow domestic (or EU) entities to compete in their domestic markets, no?

I'm somewhat ignorant of foreign ownership rules in other countries.
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  #7295  
Old Posted Jan 9, 2019, 8:03 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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YVR posted November.

Here is a comparison of Canada's busiest airports that have posted November stats.

November stats:

YVR 1,844,113 +5,4%
YUL 1,315,016 +6,3%
YYC 1,286,016 +4.0%
YEG 643,260 +4.0%
YOW 391,751 +0.8%

YTD total for 2018:

YVR 23,872,414 +7.7%
YUL 17,920,306 +6,9%
YYC 15,919,263 +6.8%
YEG 7,560,658 +5.8%
YOW 4,627,228 +4.5%

Domestic YTD totals:

YVR 11,446,625 +6,3%
YUL 6,611,007 +3,4%
YYC 11,252,081 +7.1%
YEG 5,886,216 +6.4%
YOW 3,633,036 +3.8%

Transborder YTD totals:

YVR 5,837,542 +5,9%
YUL 4,062,919 +7,7%
YYC 3,066,829 +6.9%
YEG 868,259 +8.9%
YOW 651,065 +11.3%

International YTD totals (not incl. transborder):

YVR 6,588,247 +11.9%
YUL 7,246,380 +9,8%
YYC 1,600,353 +4.1%
YEG 412,511 -1.3%
YOW 343,127 +0.5%

International YTD totals (incl. transborder):

YVR 12,425,789 +9.0%
YUL 11,309,299 +9.0%
YYC 4,667,182
YEG 1,280,770
YOW 994,192

Last edited by thenoflyzone; Jan 9, 2019 at 8:13 PM.
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  #7296  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2019, 7:46 PM
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YUL and YYC domestic vs. international numbers are fascinating. Almost a complete reverse of each other. Shows how little Quebecers travel domestically, and how little (relatively ) Calgarians travel internationally. YYC heavily tilted to transborder travel compared to YUL for 'international' travel.
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  #7297  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2019, 8:04 PM
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^^^ I'm surprised YVRs transborder total is larger than YULs given Montreal's larger population and massive love affair with Florida.
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  #7298  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2019, 8:45 PM
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Adding in YYZ

Here is a comparison of Canada's busiest airports that have posted November stats.

November stats:

YYZ 4,040,009 +3.25%
YVR 1,844,113 +5,4%
YUL 1,315,016 +6,3%
YYC 1,286,016 +4.0%
YEG 643,260 +4.0%
YOW 391,751 +0.8%

YTD total for 2018:

YYZ:41,980,368 +5.15%
YVR 23,872,414 +7.7%
YUL 17,920,306 +6,9%
YYC 15,919,263 +6.8%
YEG 7,560,658 +5.8%
YOW 4,627,228 +4.5%

Domestic YTD totals:

YYZ 15,220,068 +2.55%
YVR 11,446,625 +6,3%
YUL 6,611,007 +3,4%
YYC 11,252,081 +7.1%
YEG 5,886,216 +6.4%
YOW 3,633,036 +3.8%

Transborder YTD totals:

YYZ 11,386,307 +5.51%
YVR 5,837,542 +5,9%
YUL 4,062,919 +7,7%
YYC 3,066,829 +6.9%
YEG 868,259 +8.9%
YOW 651,065 +11.3%

International YTD totals (not incl. transborder):

YYZ N/A
YVR 6,588,247 +11.9%
YUL 7,246,380 +9,8%
YYC 1,600,353 +4.1%
YEG 412,511 -1.3%
YOW 343,127 +0.5%

International YTD totals (incl. transborder):


YYZ N/A
YVR 12,425,789 +9.0%
YUL 11,309,299 +9.0%
YYC 4,667,182
YEG 1,280,770
YOW 994,192
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  #7299  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2019, 9:55 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TorontoDrew View Post
Adding in YYZ

YYZ 4,040,009 +3.25%
YYZ:41,980,368 +5.15%
YYZ 15,220,068 +2.55%
YYZ 11,386,307 +5.51%
These numbers do not include November. They are until October.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Denscity View Post
^^^ I'm surprised YVRs transborder total is larger than YULs given Montreal's larger population and massive love affair with Florida.
More or less same reasons why domestic is significantly larger at YVR. Add leakage as well.

Leakage at YUL via other modes of transport to the US is probably higher than at YVR. Within a days' drive (6-9 hrs), you can reach NYC, BOS, PHL, Washington, etc. That is a huge population bassin right there. Not to mention Amtrak service to NYC and the leakage of Montrealers driving and flying from YYZ, PBG, BTV and even ALB. Let's not forget the thousands of Quebecers that drive down to Florida every year (as evidenced by the huge amount of QC plates you see in Florida every year.)

All of these easily represent millions people/year.

By comparison, the closest US metro area with significant tourism/business draw to YVR is SFO, which is a 16.5 hour drive. I doubt BC plates are as regular in California as Quebec plates are in Florida.

BLI sees about 500,000 Canadians that drive down from Vancouver. Add in those that drive or take the Amtrak to Seattle, and I can't see that being as high as YUL's leakage.

Last edited by thenoflyzone; Jan 10, 2019 at 10:35 PM.
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  #7300  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2019, 11:08 PM
DoubleK DoubleK is offline
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Originally Posted by wave46 View Post
I'd say the biggest impediment to competition in Canada is the incumbent airlines who will quite happily try and squash any upcoming airline.

Air Canada had no interest in Billy Bishop airport until Porter became a thing. They're now on record as opposing jets there too and I'm pretty sure it is not because they're terribly concerned about the residents of the area.

I wonder how big Porter could get if they had the ability to fly jets out of Billy Bishop.
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