Queen's Park Politics

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by toaster

Recommendation for 2 new ridings in Ontario's North. One majority Indigenous and one majority Francophone. Timmins becomes its own riding. Still waiting on the final recommendation.

I'd make it somewhat simpler:

* The 8 more southerly ridings in Northern Ontario are redrawn to match federal boundaries (2015), similar to southern ridings.

* Kenora is reduced in size somewhat, only covering areas west of 88W.

* Timmins joins parts of Timiskaming-Cochrane (which is basically today's Timmins-James Bay, and already pulls out the Tri-Towns area) for a riding for the more developed areas.

* The balance of Timmins-James Bay is combined with the many indigenous communities along James Bay, including Fort Severn, for a rural-based riding.

[Loco101]

However they do the boundaries, it's more than likely a gain of 2 seats for the NDP.

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by vid

People in Thunder Bay are so racist that I've seen several of them argue that we should follow the principles of "representation by population" even though it means losing a third of this region's seats.

"Representation by population" is an important democratic tenet.

In our system, it's practically impossible to make sure that all voters are equally represented. Sometimes geography outweighs that goal. I'm not too fussed that there are rural Canadians out there whose votes are twice as important as mine. But I know some people who are annoyed by that, and I can see their point.

We're really going to create ridings whose voters will be individually three or more times more important than voters in big cities, just to gerrymander single seats to be majority francophone and indigenous? I would say that does more harm to our democracy than good.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

However they do the boundaries, it's more than likely a gain of 2 seats for the NDP.

The PC's might be quite competitive in the new Kenora-Rainy River; it might be their best chance for a seat in NW Ontario in a very long time. That assumes their current MPP moves to what would likely be an ultra-safe seat to the north.

[toaster]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

"Representation by population" is an important democratic tenet.

In our system, it's practically impossible to make sure that all voters are equally represented. Sometimes geography outweighs that goal. I'm not too fussed that there are rural Canadians out there whose votes are twice as important as mine. But I know some people who are annoyed by that, and I can see their point.

We're really going to create ridings whose voters will be individually three or more times more important than voters in big cities, just to gerrymander single seats to be majority francophone and indigenous? I would say that does more harm to our democracy than good.

People in Toronto complain when a community a few blocks down the street is in their ward or riding because it doesn't fit within the "community of interest", but creating ridings based on community, language, and ability to keep and indigenous population together is bad? You are also misusing gerrymandering. It is used when referencing redrawing of electoral districts so as to favour one political party. That is not what is being done here. Carving out ridings based on community is constitutional.

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by toaster

People in Toronto complain when a community a few blocks down the street is in their ward or riding because it doesn't fit within the "community of interest", but creating ridings based on community, language, and ability to keep and indigenous population together is bad? You are also misusing gerrymandering. It is used when referencing redrawing of electoral districts so as to favour one political party. That is not what is being done here. Carving out ridings based on community is constitutional.

Gerrymandering need not be for the advantage of one political party. It can also be to advantage (or disadvantage) a group. I know it has a negative connotation, so perhaps I shouldn’t have used it for that reason, but I didn’t misuse it.

No doubt what is being proposed is constitutional, and I didn’t say it wasn’t. And no doubt also that some folks in Toronto (and plenty of other places) will talk about “communities of interest” wanting their neighbourhood to either be lumped or not lumped with some other neighbourhood.

Generally, when I hear those arguments, I don’t see why they should hold much water, but in some cases they probably make sense. They don’t typically result in ridings that are wildly unbalanced. In this case, we’re talking about creating ridings that are a fraction the population of others. It should be an extremely compelling case that results in people whose votes are for some reason worth a third of someone else’s vote.

[SteelTown]

The Spectator’s View: Storm clouds over Patrick Brown’s summer

https://www.thespec.com/opinion-stor...rown-s-summer/

This should be the summer of optimism for Patrick Brown and his Progressive Conservative party.

The Wynne Liberals remain stuck in second place. The PCs remain thin on policy, but Brown continues to ride high in the polls. His summer barbecue circuit is going well. The photo ops look good. So why the air of anxiety?

The problem is within Brown's own party, a fractious coalition of social conservatives, progressives, economic conservatives and a sprinkling of libertarians. He is not running it smoothly. And most significantly, he is being branded as dishonest by a growing number of members.

Social conservatives are angry Brown he has flip-flopped on things like carbon tax and sex education. A growing number say he cannot be trusted.

But the most worrisome thing for Tories has to be the internecine warfare around nominations for the coming election. Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas candidate Vikram Singh is taking the party to court saying he was cheated out of victory by Brown officials. His case will be heard early next month. Damningly, party president Rick Dykstra authored an affidavit about the fight, which says in part: "The nomination meeting is not determinative of who will ultimately be listed on the ballot as the PC Party candidate …" Technically true, but how does that look to supporters of Brown's big blue tent?

It's worse in Ottawa West-Nepean, where veteran party volunteer Carlos Naldinho is outraged by what he calls "outright corruption" in nomination battles. So much so that Naldinho has said he will work to defeat Brown's party. He's not alone.

Party stalwart and former senator, Marjory LeBreton, has gone public alleging dirty tricks stole that nomination from local favourite Jeremy Roberts and gave it to Karma Macgregor, the mother of one of Brown's closest advisers. LeBreton is not a good enemy to have.

Neither is Marilyn Mushinski, cabinet minister under Mike Harris, who told CBC after another scandal-plagued nomination meeting in Scarborough: "I think it would be an absolute disaster if Patrick Brown became the next premier of the province."

Add to all this, rogue MPP Jack MacLaren has joined the Trillium Party and promises to steal social conservative votes. And there are rumblings about a more moderate faction within the PCs, socially liberal but against a carbon tax, who might break out and bleed more voters.

Why is all this happening now, with the election campaign more pressing by the day? Bad luck? Or is it more likely that Brown isn't up to holding together this shaky collective? If Brown can't pull it together, and soon, he risks handing the Liberals a gift even they couldn't have foreseen just a few months ago.

[vid]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

"Representation by population" is an important democratic tenet.

In our system, it's practically impossible to make sure that all voters are equally represented. Sometimes geography outweighs that goal. I'm not too fussed that there are rural Canadians out there whose votes are twice as important as mine. But I know some people who are annoyed by that, and I can see their point.

We're really going to create ridings whose voters will be individually three or more times more important than voters in big cities, just to gerrymander single seats to be majority francophone and indigenous? I would say that does more harm to our democracy than good.

The lack of indigenous voices within parliament is a significant contributing factor to the idea of there being a conflict between indigenous people of this land and the colonizing power. As long as indigenous people are largely absent from parliament, the narrative of a white colonialist government forcing its will on indigenous people will fulfill itself.

Our province is located on native land, more than two thirds of its area is occupied almost exclusively by indigenous people, and the wealth of that land was a significant contributing factor in the development of Ontario as the most prosperous province in the country for most of its history. They're offering 1.6% of the seats to represent a people who make up 2.6% of the provincial population and are the primary occupants of 65+% of the land area.

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

Gerrymandering need not be for the advantage of one political party. It can also be to advantage (or disadvantage) a group. I know it has a negative connotation, so perhaps I shouldn’t have used it for that reason, but I didn’t misuse it.

But who is disadvantaged as a result of this? Who loses when we give indigenous people 1.6% of the voice? (Less, should they elect a non-partisan or fringe party candidate, which is possible.)

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

No doubt what is being proposed is constitutional, and I didn’t say it wasn’t. And no doubt also that some folks in Toronto (and plenty of other places) will talk about “communities of interest” wanting their neighbourhood to either be lumped or not lumped with some other neighbourhood.

When ridings are redistributed every decade, "communities of interest" are already a factor at play. That's why many ridings that could just as well be random squares are not laid out as random squares.

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

In this case, we’re talking about creating ridings that are a fraction the population of others. It should be an extremely compelling case that results in people whose votes are for some reason worth a third of someone else’s vote.

Every riding in PEI, the three territories, and Labrador, all have around 30,000 people in them.

If you want everyone's vote to be equal, bring in proportional representation. Ridings can't do it. FPTP can't do it. 6,201 votes in 14 ridings were all it took for Harper's Conservatives to get a majority in 2011. That was the margin of victory. Had those 6,201 people—barely a sixth of these northern ridings—changed their minds, we would have had Prime Minister Layton. How is that fair? That's the system you're defending. Barely 1,000 people could have given BC's Liberals a majority two months ago had they just changed their minds. Swing ridings like that are where the real vote imbalance is, not an indigenous riding that will likely end up as a safe seat. Do you think Patrick Brown is going to go to Eabaametoong during the next election campaign? I doubt it. But under a proportional voting system where every vote truly counts, you can bet your ass he's going to court Ontario's 330,000 indigenous people.

[SteelTown]

MPP Ted McKeekin, city councillor Judi Partridge aim to run in 2018 provincial election

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/7...cial-election/

Hamilton's lone Liberal MPP Ted McMeekin has announced he will run for re-election in 2018, ending more than a year of speculation about his political future.

Flamborough Coun. Judi Partridge, meanwhile, said Friday she wants to team up with McMeekin by seeking the Liberal nomination for new riding of Flamborough-Glanbrook.

"We're doing a number of big things and I want to see them through," McMeekin, the current MPP for Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, said at a public event Friday. He will also run in a new riding, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas.

The political map in Hamilton is being rejigged ahead of 2018 to match new federal riding borders.

There had been speculation the 69-year-old MPP would retire before the next election, particularly after battling cancer twice and voluntarily stepping down from a cabinet position last year.

McMeekin admitted Friday he had seriously considered packing it in.

But he added his health is good and he's received a "thumbs up" on his decision to run again from his doctor, his family and Premier Kathleen Wynne, whom he serves as a special parliamentary assistant.

"I've just gotta do it," said the former mayor of Flamborough, who added he wants to see "legacy projects" like the Randle Reef cleanup and the $1 billion investment in light rail transit through to completion.

Partridge has opposed the LRT plan in Hamilton as a councillor and she reiterated Friday her opinion on the project "has not changed." But the seven-year councillor stressed she respects the decision of council and the provincial government's commitment to the city.

[eternallyme]

Things are getting crazy in eastern Ontario...and this riding could be more interesting than it should be.

http://www.ottawasun.com/2017/07/25/...-into-the-open

That said, Carleton shouldn't flip to the Liberals (a rare pickup opportunity) unless the Trillium Party runs a strong candidate, and that candidate gets a decent chunk of the vote. But if Trillium runs well in the rural parts, and the Liberals decide they want a hedge against losses elsewhere, they might be able to snare away at the Red Tory types in the suburban portions...

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Things are getting crazy in eastern Ontario...and this riding could be more interesting than it should be.

http://www.ottawasun.com/2017/07/25/...-into-the-open

That said, Carleton shouldn't flip to the Liberals (a rare pickup opportunity) unless the Trillium Party runs a strong candidate, and that candidate gets a decent chunk of the vote. But if Trillium runs well in the rural parts, and the Liberals decide they want a hedge against losses elsewhere, they might be able to snare away at the Red Tory types in the suburban portions...

I would be really surprised if the Trillium Party actually gets significant support anywhere. And I'm saying this even when I think Patrick Brown is a very weak leader for the PCs.

Goldie Ghamari: I don't know much about her but she certainly is attractive!

[HillStreetBlues]

The first thought that entered my mind was that the dog looks very parliamentarian.

I'm with you on the Trillium Party. I can't seriously see them impacting any races.

[vid]

Tamara Johnson as a Libertarian barely put a dent into the results in Thunder Bay-Superior North three years ago, and they put a lot more money and resources behind her than Trillium has access to. (Actual campaign signs and advertising campaigns, in a small riding.)

Trillium isn't going to be a factor and MacLaren's career will be, if not over, at least on hiatus for a few years after the next election.

[SteelTown]

Hamilton police considering investigating alleged ballot box stuffing in PC nomination battle

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilt...ttle-1.4240261

Hamilton police are looking into a complaint about a Progressive Conservative nomination meeting marred by allegations of ballot box stuffing.

But the service has yet to decide if it will launch a formal investigation.

Ben Levitt won the Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas nomination meeting in May, but it was challenged by two would-be candidates — Vikram Singh and Jeff Peller. Both have asked the court for a judicial review.

They allege the process was tainted by fraud and say the result should be overturned.

The allegations in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas are among several Progressive Conservative nomination results being questioned by party members.

In response, party leader Patrick Brown brought in PricewaterhouseCoopers auditors to oversee party nominations.

Hamilton police say a complaint was made to them in May about the Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas meeting and "the process used to select the candidate."

While the Canadian Press previously reported that the police were investigating that complaint, a statement from Hamilton Police Service released Wednesday afternoon said the agency is not sure it will pursue an investigation itself.

"Hamilton Police Service is currently reviewing information obtained and a determination will be made whether the investigation will be continued by Hamilton police or forwarded on to another investigative agency," the statement reads.

Brown's office had no comment about the potential investigation.

[1overcosc]

Hydro One submitted its first rate increase application to the OEB regulator since becoming majority private. OEB rejected nearly all of it and Hydro One's share price took a tumble as a result.

[Loco101]

Recent (September 18, 2017) Innovative Research poll done by telephone:

http://innovativeresearch.ca/the-pcs...eat-this-year/

PC: 40%

Liberal: 35%

NDP: 19%

Green: 6%

Other: 1%

Other data from the polling shows Kathleen Wynne's approval rating at 22%. Patrick Brown's is only 25% but 49% of the respondents don't know or recognize him!
Andrea Horwath has the highest approval rating at 35%.

[vid]

Patrick Brown has a robocall going out in Northern Ontario and in it, they claim he is from Northern Ontario.

Can someone in Southern Ontario please go to Barrie and tell Patrick Brown that Barrie isn't located in Northern Ontario?

[MoreTrains]

Originally Posted by vid

Can someone in Southern Ontario please go to Barrie and tell Patrick Brown that Barrie isn't located in Northern Ontario?

Anything north of Toronto is Northern Ontario.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by vid

Patrick Brown has a robocall going out in Northern Ontario and in it, they claim he is from Northern Ontario.

Can someone in Southern Ontario please go to Barrie and tell Patrick Brown that Barrie isn't located in Northern Ontario?

I just got that robocall last night at 8:58pm.

The PC Party always seems to want to make anything north of Toronto a part of Northern Ontario. What an insult to those of us who actually live in the real Northern Ontario.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by MoreTrains

Anything north of Toronto is Northern Ontario.

---- ---!

(I know that you're joking)