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Old Posted Aug 3, 2017, 3:14 PM
eternallyme eternallyme is offline
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Agreed re: downtown and inner-city Toronto, that seems so unlikely. In most downtown/inner-city ridings, the PC's (and federal Conservatives) have been a distant 3rd - or even 4th behind the Greens - in recent elections, rarely getting much more than 10% of the vote. I would definitely think they would go NDP before going PC.
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Old Posted Nov 19, 2017, 12:27 AM
swimmer_spe swimmer_spe is offline
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Here is my take:

The reason she is still in power, and likely will win the next election is the same reason Harper got a majority government.

There is no good alternative.

We have a problem throughout this country - no good leaders.

As much as I hated Hudak, he at least stood his ground. His "cut 100,000 public sector jobs" is what did him in. The new leader has yet to show himself as a true leader.

With what is happening with the vote to get students back to class, the NDP are guaranteeing that they will not get voted in. 500.000 students and their families will not be voting NDP.

So, what choice do we have?
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Old Posted Nov 19, 2017, 12:51 AM
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1overcosc 1overcosc is offline
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Another factor is that if the PC vote is less efficiently distributed than the Liberal vote, due to the way they tend to rack up 'wasted votes' in rural ridings.

Given that a lot of recent polls seem to be putting the PCs at narrow leads, I wonder if a popular vote-seat count mismatch is in the cards for 2018, where the PCs win the popular vote but the Liberals end up with a minority.
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Old Posted Nov 19, 2017, 2:09 AM
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The PCs won't end up with the popular vote because even if they get landslides in their base ridings, those are underpopulated ridings in the first place. The redistribution will help a little bit but in the end, Toronto Centre still has more people than Simcoe North.

And in the North, the PCs are still irrelevant, so they're not going to get much help up here. All the Liberals have to do is stand there and list off all the things they've funded here in the past ten years and contrary to our cries of being forgotten all the time, it's actually a lot.
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