Middle Class Exodus from California Appears to be picking up speed

[James Bond Agent 007]

I'm not sure most people realize it, but what is really happening is, California (at least the coastal areas) is basically turning into Beverly Hills, writ large. You're going to have a huge bunch of rich people, and robots will do all the menial work. Not sure about the homeless, maybe even they will go away after a while. In 50-70 years, even downtown Compton will look something like this, and all the little bungalow houses will have been torn down, replaced with stuff that looks like this. Being ultra wealthy, it'll also be ultra decadent, and it'll start to look like a Syd Mead painting.

Here's Palm Springs circa 2060.

[CaliNative]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

That's not true when you factor in the cost of living. We had an entire discussion thread about this already.

E) Here's the thread I started from January:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=231646

Why is liberal California the poverty capital of America?
Los Angeles Times

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...114-story.html

True. In economics, there is a whole important distinction between "nominal" and "real" incomes. Real incomes factor in the cost of living; nominal does not. So a Mississippi resident making $50K a year might be better off than a Californian making twice as much if rents and house prices are 75% lower. Your money buys more in Mississippi. Of course you don't get S.F. and L.A. and S.D. in Mississippi. You have to be satisfied with Jackson and Tupelo and Biloxi. But New Orleans & Memphis aren't that far away, and Oxford MS is said to be a nice college town.

[CaliNative]

In my op., a big factor in the increased income inequality over the last couple of decades is the massive money creation by the Federal Reserve, especially since the 2008 financial crisis. Most of the money directly or indirectly landed in the pockets of the top 1% and the big corporations and banks. The money creation puffed up stock and bond values, which is good, but most of the gains went to the upper crust. If there is a need for a future bailout, send a $5,000 check to every poor & middle class person, not to the rich. It would be spent immediately, and do great good.

[Eightball]

I always wonder if the pricing adjustments or whatever take into account things like due to the moderate weather electricity bills being about 1/5th as elsewhere. Our utility bills here are so low they bill in 2 month increments not monthly like everywhere else. And you need way less space in your apartment/home bc of the year round moderate weather. The "hoods" here are way nicer too they have way more chains and useful stores than hoods anywhere else in the country. This is possibly due to much higher density here not certain tho

Public transit costs here in la are pretty much the cheapest in the country too. Certainly not in SF tho lol

[CaliNative]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

I'm not sure most people realize it, but what is really happening is, California (at least the coastal areas) is basically turning into Beverly Hills, writ large. You're going to have a huge bunch of rich people, and robots will do all the menial work. Not sure about the homeless, maybe even they will go away after a while. In 50-70 years, even downtown Compton will look something like this, and all the little bungalow houses will have been torn down, replaced with stuff that looks like this. Being ultra wealthy, it'll also be ultra decadent, and it'll start to look like a Syd Mead painting

The rich do seem to be moving into enclaves. Switzerland, London, Paris, Monaco, NYC, coastal California, esp, SF, LA, SD, Vancouver, Toronto, New Zealand, etc. And when the robots take over manual work, as you predict. what will become of the average Joe and Jane? Some form of guaranteed income? Some high paying jobs may also be robotized--brokerage, law, even medical jobs. Even the rich may become obsolete. Artificial intelligence. They do the work, we play on the income derived? Or will the bots want a salary, or a governing role? As Musk and Gates predict, be careful with A.I.

[CaliNative]

Originally Posted by Eightball

I always wonder if the pricing adjustments or whatever take into account things like due to the moderate weather electricity bills being about 1/5th as elsewhere. Our utility bills here are so low they bill in 2 month increments not monthly like everywhere else. And you need way less space in your apartment/home bc of the year round moderate weather. The "hoods" here are way nicer too they have way more chains and useful stores than hoods anywhere else in the country. This is possibly due to much higher density here not certain tho

Public transit costs here in la are pretty much the cheapest in the country too. Certainly not in SF tho lol

True, utility bills aren't that high in coastal CA. But we do pay more for gasoline than anywhere else in the U.S. And rents & housing costs are off the chart. When everything is factored in, living costs are easily 150% higher than most other places. If you own a house or condo, you're OK. Rent? Prepare to pay.

[CaliNative]

Just heard on the news today that L.A. city will in a few weeks have 4,000,000 people, So L.A. is still growing. Census Bureau estimates we are at about 3,999,750....just 250 or so short of 4 mil. So somehow the growth continues despite the high cost of living. S.F. is almost at 900,000, or may reach that by 2020 census--most people ever. S.D. may hit 1.5 mil. etc. Maybe the real exodus is from rural areas? Drove through rural Dakotas once and there seem to be lots of farm towns that are basically vanishing. Lots of vacant buildings. Seems to be a rural trend. People want to be in big cities.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

Just heard on the news today that L.A. city will in a few weeks have 4,000,000 people, So L.A. is still growing. Census Bureau estimates we are at about 3,999,750....just 250 or so short of 4 mil. So somehow the growth continues despite the high cost of living. S.F. is almost at 900,000, or may reach that by 2020 census--most people ever. S.D. may hit 1.5 mil. etc. Maybe the real exodus is from rural areas? Drove through rural Dakotas once and there seem to be lots of farm towns that are basically vanishing. Lots of vacant buildings. Seems to be a rural trend. People want to be in big cities.

California is still growing, but then again, 45+ states are growing. The only states that I can think of that are in decline are Illinois and maybe Hawaii and sparsely populated states like Alaska and Wyoming[?].

Calif. can still squeeze out it's middle class and grow due to natural increase and international migration. 2010-2017 California's population increased by 2.3 million people.

E) 8 states saw a population decline 2016 to 2017 -- West Virginia, Illinois, Alaska, Wyoming, Hawaii, Mississippi, Louisiana, and North Dakota.


But since 2010 only 3 states have declined: Illinois, West Virginia and Vermont.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...on_growth_rate

[coyotetrickster]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

That's not true when you factor in the cost of living. We had an entire discussion thread about this already.

E) Here's the thread I started from January:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=231646

Why is liberal California the poverty capital of America?
Los Angeles Times

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...114-story.html

It's unfortunate this poster used an opinion piece from a free-market fetishist associated with a second-rate think tank as evidence. California's poverty rate is due to the poor wage conditions of workers in the Central Valley/Inland Empire and the declining outputs from Lost Coast mineral extraction industries. Agribusiness and logistics companies are abusive employers who routinely exploit labor.
We are losing a large segment of lower-level, albeit crucial, workers due to the entirely self-inflicted housing policies enacted after Prop 13, which itself turned into a massive road block to more housing, since cities and counties no longer had a means to raise revenues to cover increased costs. Retail and commercial real estate became the go-to developments because the employees for those entities did not use local service 24/7 like residents.
Coastal California has definitely tapped into the Pacific Century, and it's increasing wealth is evidence. SF itself is showing some interesting custom-manufacturing growth based on novel 3-d printing and composite material designs. Lots of product prototypes. These are not low-skill, entry-level operations. Computer and critical thinking skills are required.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

That's not true when you factor in the cost of living. We had an entire discussion thread about this already.

E) Here's the thread I started from January:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=231646

Why is liberal California the poverty capital of America?
Los Angeles Times

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed...114-story.html

Here is the latest release.

https://www.census.gov/library/publi...o/p60-261.html

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

Just heard on the news today that L.A. city will in a few weeks have 4,000,000 people, So L.A. is still growing. Census Bureau estimates we are at about 3,999,750....just 250 or so short of 4 mil. So somehow the growth continues despite the high cost of living. S.F. is almost at 900,000, or may reach that by 2020 census--most people ever. S.D. may hit 1.5 mil. etc. Maybe the real exodus is from rural areas? Drove through rural Dakotas once and there seem to be lots of farm towns that are basically vanishing. Lots of vacant buildings. Seems to be a rural trend. People want to be in big cities.

I believe LA was in the top 5 for adding residents. I think for cities over a million, only San Antonio added more than LA.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

The rich do seem to be moving into enclaves. Switzerland, London, Paris, Monaco, NYC, coastal California, esp, SF, LA, SD, Vancouver, Toronto, New Zealand, etc. And when the robots take over manual work, as you predict. what will become of the average Joe and Jane? Some form of guaranteed income? Some high paying jobs may also be robotized--brokerage, law, even medical jobs. Even the rich may become obsolete. Artificial intelligence. They do the work, we play on the income derived? Or will the bots want a salary, or a governing role? As Musk and Gates predict, be careful with A.I.

We simply dont need this many people on earth. We need population / birth control en masse.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

We simply dont need this many people on earth. We need population / birth control en masse.

Actually the first world countries desperately need higher birth rates. It's the third world that needs to cut back. People in countries like the US and Europe need to be encouraged to have more kids, while people in Africa and the Middle East desperately need birth control.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Actually the first world countries desperately need higher birth rates. It's the third world that needs to cut back. People in countries like the US and Europe need to be encouraged to have more kids, while people in Africa and the Middle East desperately need birth control.

Immigration would be helpful to first world countries. Unfortunate that many of these countries are turning their backs to immigrants.

[Derek]

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

We simply dont need this many people on earth. We need population / birth control en masse.

This is why I’m low key hoping for some kind of cataclysmic event. Sorry, but earth kind of needs a reset at this point.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Actually the first world countries desperately need higher birth rates. It's the third world that needs to cut back. People in countries like the US and Europe need to be encouraged to have more kids, while people in Africa and the Middle East desperately need birth control.

I disagree, we need less people period. We need third world birth rates to get down to where we are in first world countries, if not lower since they dont have the resources to handle it

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by Derek

This is why I’m low key hoping for some kind of cataclysmic event. Sorry, but earth kind of needs a reset at this point.

im in the same boat

[bnk]

Originally Posted by lio45

Really? How did out of staters like you guys end up with land in California? Interesting. Is it agricultural...? Or vacant/urban? Or just out there and empty?

I got a little place in Irvine, Orange County, Calif.: 989 rental units

Park Place. Its doing pretty good.

[dimondpark]

I cant be mad at sellers for taking advantage of the market

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Immigration would be helpful to first world countries. Unfortunate that many of these countries are turning their backs to immigrants.

No it wouldn't because the places where people would be immigrating are far less advanced and the last thing the Western world needs is more unskilled laborers. There's already way too many unskilled people for the number of unskilled jobs and those jobs are getting eliminated fast.