The Metropolises of Tomorrow

[Yuri]

The Metropolises of Tomorrow




I created this thread to discuss how the demographic growth will forge new metropolises and expand the borders of the current ones.

I'll start with examples in the US and Brazil:

-------------------------------- 2014 -------- 2010 ----- Growth %
BosWash ------------------- 51,164,919 --- 49,788,631 --- 2.76%
Southern California ------ 22,254,387 --- 21,396,214 --- 4.01%
Chicagoland --------------- 11,972,216 --- 11,866,918 --- 0.89%
Greater Bay Area --------- 11,918,876 --- 11,338,725 --- 5.12%

BosWash --- New York, Washington-Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, Hartford, Springfield CSAs and Lancaster MSA
SoCal --- Los Angeles CSA and San Diego and Santa Barbara MSAs
Chicagoland --- Chicago and Milwaukee CSAs
G. Bay Area --- San Francisco, Sacramento and Modesto CSAs

-------------------------------- 2014 -------- 2013 ----- Growth %
São Paulo ------------------ 33,596,475 --- 33,304,296 --- 0.88%
Rio de Janeiro ------------- 15,242,909 --- 15,161,638 --- 0.54%

São Paulo --- Metropolitana de São Paulo, Macro Metropolitana Paulista, Vale do Paraíba, Campinas and Piracicaba mesorregions and the microrregion of Itanhaém
Rio de Janeiro --- the entire state minus Norte e Noroeste mesorregions

[Yuri]

Using the year 2020 as a target when both the US and Brazil hold their census:

Bos-Wash might be relatively its best moment in demographic terms compared to the rest of the country. Their growth isn't be that far from the national average.

Without annexing any counties to the CSAs, we'll have the following population (provided the current growth patterns remain the same):

BOSTON --------------------- 8,668,344
NEW YORK ------------------ 24,472,802
PHILADELPHIA --------------- 7,309,526
WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE ------ 10,287,554

BosWash heading for 52 million as 2020.

Southern California, going to 23.5 million people:

LOS ANGELES -------------- 19,561,020
SAN DIEGO ----------------- 3,515,347

And Chicagoland, with its very slow growth won't see major changes (12.1 million people):

CHICAGO ------------------ 10,051,406
MILWAUKEE ----------------- 2,070,561

[Yuri]

Rio-São Paulo

São Paulo macrometropolitan area will be around 35.3 million people by 2020, acting more and more like an ordinary metropolitan area. In fact, São Paulo and Campinas (100km apart) are already linked by continuous urban sprawl. Rio de Janeiro expanded area will be at 15.8 million.

Therefore, the Rio-São Paulo axis will above 51 million people, few years away to overtake Bos-Wash corridor as the most populated megalopolis in the American continent.

[Yuri]

Next year will be interesting, as Canadians hold their inter-census, and we'll be able to see how their metro areas growth has been developing. I'd guess the Greater Golden Horseshoe will have been slowed down. They will probably count 10-11 million people by 2021.

Another interesting case will be London expanded area (London, East and Southeast England). Over 25 million people will be living there by 2021 UK Census.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Another interesting case will be London expanded area (London, East and Southeast England). Over 25 million people will be living there by 2021 UK Census.

Jonesy55 (SSC)

Compared with the New York CSA (2010/2014): 23.1 million to 23.6 million. The English area probably overtook the American CSA in 2015. Impressive.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Jonesy55 (SSC)

Compared with the New York CSA (2010/2014): 23.1 million to 23.6 million. The English area probably overtook the American CSA in 2015. Impressive.

So a switch is flicked and all of a sudden London rockets past New York?

Seems like there are lot of short cuts in logic are being taken here in order to rank cities higher than they'd otherwise be.

Some of you guys should visit the Canada section - you'd feel right at home.

Just do a search for the booming metropolis called Okotoks and you'll see what I mean!

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Next year will be interesting, as Canadians hold their inter-census, and we'll be able to see how their metro areas growth has been developing. I'd guess the Greater Golden Horseshoe will have been slowed down. They will probably count 10-11 million people by 2021.

Another interesting case will be London expanded area (London, East and Southeast England). Over 25 million people will be living there by 2021 UK Census.

As most of former British Empire countries, UK and Canada will held their next census in 2021.

Southeast England will probably not reach the 25 million mark but it's growing in a fast pace:

----- 2018 ------- 2011 ------ Growth
24,242,920 --- 22,655,656 --- 7.01%

About Greater Golden Horseshoe, it reached 9,245,438 inh. in the 2016 Census, making up 68.75% of Ontario population that year.

As I didn't find the numbers of 2019 estimate for that area, I used Ontario's figures and kept the GGH share. That would be 10,014,501. 10.4 million probably will be the population for the region counted next year.

[Yuri]

Another country holding a census this year is Mexico. Here's a chart of with their megalopolis:

-------------------- 2015 -------- 2010 ---- Growth

Mexico City ------ 27.442.800 -- 25.804.169 --- 6.35%
Puebla ------------ 2.941.988 --- 2.728.790 --- 7.81%
Pachuca ------------- 557.093 ----- 512.196 --- 8.77%
Tlaxcala ------------ 540.273 ----- 499.567 --- 8.15%
Tula ---------------- 225.219 ----- 205.812 --- 9.43%
CENTRAL MEXICO --- 31.707.373 -- 29.750.534 --- 6.58%

"Mexico City" defined as DF, Mexico and Morelos states. The other components are the official metro areas. There will probably be a slow down on the second half of decade, so I'd say the Central Mexico will reach 33.5 million inh. or so in 2020.

That compares to the 35 million of São Paulo Macrometropolis and the 33 million of the "New York-Philadelphia CSA". São Paulo and Mexico regions growing at 9-10%/decade and NY-Philly with a sluggish 2-3%/decade.

[New Brisavoine]

Only 33 million people in São Paulo? I thought that was more like 55 million. And you forgot to include Glasgow in the London "expanded area".

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Only 33 million people in São Paulo? I thought that was more like 55 million. And you forgot to include Glasgow in the London "expanded area".

Thanks for the contribution, Brisavoine. Very mature indeed.

I won't be dragged into your childish rants. 33 million "in São Paulo MACROMETROPOLITAN area", not "in São Paulo". All the 3 posts of the thread are perfectly clear. No need to troll.

[iheartthed]

Is there a logical test used to create the "metropolises?" If you're using urbanized continuity then I suspect you're missing a few population centers in the midwest and southern Ontario. I believe that the area around Lake Erie is urbanized (or nearly so) from Toronto/Buffalo towards Detroit and down through Cleveland, and possibly to Pittsburgh.

This is a contiguous population center but most don't recognize it since it spills across international borders in multiple places. However, it is probably the second largest population cluster in North America outside of the northeast/mid-Atlantic U.S. It is easily the second largest if you combine it with the Milwaukee-Chicago population cluster. But I think the case is stronger for connecting Buffalo-Toronto-Detroit-Cleveland-Pittsburgh than it is to connect that cluster to Milwaukee-Chicago.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Is there a logical test used to create the "metropolises?" If you're using urbanized continuity then I suspect you're missing a few population centers in the midwest and southern Ontario. I believe that the area around Lake Erie is urbanized (or nearly so) from Toronto/Buffalo towards Detroit and down through Cleveland, and possibly to Pittsburgh.

The list is not exhaustive. I just threw some important areas to have a debate starter.

The problem with the Cleveland-Pittsburgh corridor, is the lack of growth, which prevents a further integration of the corridor. BosWash, on the other hand, has been an area of low population growth for decades, and now they are almost catching up the national average, and they will probably add 2.0-2.5 million people in this decade. That's a lot for an already consolidated region.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

This is a contiguous population center but most don't recognize it since it spills across international borders in multiple places. However, it is probably the second largest population cluster in North America outside of the northeast/mid-Atlantic U.S. It is easily the second largest if you combine it with the Milwaukee-Chicago population cluster. But I think the case is stronger for connecting Buffalo-Toronto-Detroit-Cleveland-Pittsburgh than it is to connect that cluster to Milwaukee-Chicago.

Let's see how the US part of it will behave in the next decade. Pittsburgh and Buffalo metro areas, for the first time since the 1960's and 1970's respectively, are showing positive growth.

Detroit and Cleveland go up and down, let's see if they arrive in 2020 with positive growth.

[PoshSteve]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

The problem with the Cleveland-Pittsburgh corridor, is the lack of growth, which prevents a further integration of the corridor.

While the metro areas of Cleveland/Akron/Canton, Youngstown/Warren and Pittsburgh/Wheeling may not be growing in absolute population numbers, they all continue to sprawl out and closer together. They are far from being completely built up, urban areas in between, but then again, so is BosWash.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

Detroit and Cleveland go up and down, let's see if they arrive in 2020 with positive growth.

If it isn't the fastest growing, Toronto is probably easily in the top 3 fastest growing major metropolises in North America this decade. I don't think it matters much for Detroit and Cleveland to have stagnant or declining population growth. It's being more than made up for by Toronto.

That region will probably still be the second most populated region of North American in 2020 and the foreseeable future.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Is there a logical test used to create the "metropolises?"

Yes. As long as Brazil and the UK appear on top of the list, you're on the safe side of things with Yuriandrade.

[caligrad]

Los Angeles and San Diego could have been linked to form one continuous region a long time ago. BUT. Camp Pendleton and the now defunct and recently decommissioned San Onofre Nuclear Power plant creates a 20-30 mile gap between LA and San Diego. When I say LA I mean the far south portion of Orange County.

Without Camp Pendleton and the San Onfore power plant, LA and San Diego would have been joined back in the 90s.

Instead, That growth spilled over into the surrounding valleys.

[destroycreate]

Originally Posted by caligrad

Los Angeles and San Diego could have been linked to form one continuous region a long time ago. BUT. Camp Pendleton and the now defunct and recently decommissioned San Onofre Nuclear Power plant creates a 20-30 mile gap between LA and San Diego. When I say LA I mean the far south portion of Orange County.

Without Camp Pendleton and the San Onfore power plant, LA and San Diego would have been joined back in the 90s.

Instead, That growth spilled over into the surrounding valleys.

I'm so glad Camp Pendleton exists for that very reason!

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by destroycreate

I'm so glad Camp Pendleton exists for that very reason!

Yeah, driving across the base is like a nature preserve. Untouched coastal Southern California. It's a nice break-up from San Clemente to Oceanside.

[caligrad]

Originally Posted by destroycreate

I'm so glad Camp Pendleton exists for that very reason!

Exactly !

Its amazing how driving south down the 5, development literally drops off before 5 miles of hitting San Onofre power plant, literally just a wall where one side it suburbs and the next is just natural grass lands and coast line. Makes the drive to San Diego and back a little more bearable than if those 15-30 miles were fully developed. And totally thankful for camp Pendleton.

Sad thing is though that gap might get a little shorter in the very near future. Developers are already jumping on the idea that Since the power plant is going to be torn down soon, that the surrounding land needs to be developed asap. Sadly CA will almost certainly sell to the highest bidder. Talk about an interstate 5 that will most likely be gridlocked the entire way now.

[Yuri]

More from São Paulo macrometropolitan area. Night pic: