I don't know about Garfield Park or northlawndale, I have a theory that deeply poor black neighborhoods are much more difficult to flip than other areas. Whether it be racism, building stock destruction via the riots and urban renewal, higher levels of entrenched crime, and deeper levels of generational poverty and government subsidized living extremely poor black neighborhoods just don't gentrify unless the population is essentially forced out....ie Cabrini, starting to see it in parts of Bronzeville and the developments in Kenwood tied to the removal of the very poor black population in Oakland & Ida B Wells.
Businessweek on east garfield in 2005-06 named it was one of hottest....prior to crash of course.
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/07...s/source/3.htm
I agree UT has peculiar local idiosyncracies....however some of that was tied to Schiller who is gone; But yes there are plenty of institutional issues in UT that challenge its ascendancy....it has gotten much much better than it was even 12 years ago when I lived there let alone since the 1970;s when it was brutal....I'd say cautiously optimistic.
Rogers Park has somewhat analogous institutional challenges as UT....with the senior living along Sheridan some of is subsidized and the amount of half-way houses and apts that house the mentally disturbed. As well as in parts a high concentration of subsidized housing....thinking most saliently about the crime cancer that is the Juneway Jungle centered around ashland and jonquil on the NOH area of Rogers Park, Northpoint apts, run by a company called Aimco ,are 304 subsidized apts that have had long running crime issues. The neighborhood would be much better if they left along with the halfway homes and subsidized senior homes along Sherdian.....Sheridan if developed properly could be prime RE....probably not in my lifetime.....too much political grab bag