Statscan CMA Projections 2031

[ssiguy]

^^^ because Natives have far higher birth rates than non-Natives and Natives make up 85% of Nunavut`s population, 55% of NWT, and only 25% of Yukon.

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by dennis1

In light of the recent talk of population, here are the CMA projections for 2031

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-551-...tbl028-eng.htm
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-551-...pp-ann-eng.htm
Toronto 9,764,000
Montréal 5,275,000
Vancouver 3,783,000 (Lower Mainland 4,173,637) (via http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/po...owsperpage=all)
Calgary 2,003,000
Ottawa Hull 1,679,000
Edmonton 1,627,000
Winnipeg 945,000
Hamilton 984,000
Regina 222,000
Saskatoon 277,000

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

That table showing population projections for 2036 is way off.
They predict a Moncton CMA population of 140,000 in 2036. In fact, the 2016 census put our population at
If Moncton continues to grow as it is, in 20 years time (2036) our population should be at least 185,000.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Some of those numbers, as MonctonRad noted, are way off.
London is already at 525 and is growing faster now than it has in 30 years but only has an estimate of 549. Brantford, Guelph, Quebec, and Niagara, are also nearly at the population levels estimated for 2031.

I'm surprised nobody mentioned the most obvious discrepancy with the Stats Canada projections for CMAs in 2031.

According to Statistics Canada, Saskatoon and Regina grew by 2.8 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively as of July 1, 2017.

Saskatoon's population was estimated at 323,800 people,
while Regina's was estimated at 253,200.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saska...rate-1.4533264

With 2031 less than 13 years away, I'd imagine Canada at 40 million during that census period year will look close to this:

Ontario - 15.5 million
with Toronto- 6.9m, Ottawa- 1.7m, Hamilton- .85m KWC- .6m, London- .57m
Oshawa- .45m, StCath/Niag- .45m, Windsor- .35m, Barrie- .23m

Quebec - 8.9 m
with Montreal- 4.5m, QuebecC- .9m, Sherbrooke- .24m

British Columbia - 5.3m
Vancouver- 2.9m, Victoria- .44m, Kelowna- .25m, Abbotsford- .21m

Alberta - 5.m
Calgary- 2m, Edmonton- 1.85m, Lethbridge- .15m

Manitoba - 1.5m
Winnipeg- .93m,

Saskatchewan - 1.3m
Saskatoon- .41m, Regina- .31m

Nova Scotia - .98m
Halifax- .45m

New Brunswick - .78m
Moncton- .16m, StJohn- .13m

Newfoundland - .55m
StJohns- .23m

PEI - .17m

[GreaterMontréal]

Quebec is already at 8.4M, July 2018. We should have no problem reaching 9.1M by 2031.
Montréal is already at 4.3M July 2018, 4.8M-5M by 2031,

StatQc

8,439,925 , 1er janvier 2018.
http://www.stat.gouv.qc.ca/statistiq...ucture/1p1.htm

[north 42]

I would think that Windsor’s population will easily be over 400,000 by 2031. Our population currently according to estimates is already almost 350,000, so another 50,0000 over a 13 year period is very possible, especially with growth rates of 1.3% a year we are currently at, about 5,000 per year.
Of coarse a recession in the near future could put a damper on our current growth rates and that 400,000 target!

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Of all the Territories you would expect the Yukon to be the slowest growing due to having a much smaller Native population than either the NWT or Nunavut.

As far as Yellowknife and Iqaluit {which is were much of the growth it taking place} are concerned, Yellowknife has a much milder and sunnier climate with far less snow. It has far more character and much more in terms of urban emenities. The NWT also has an effective highway system including a connection to Edmonton and Nunuvat has no rural roads at all.

The population up there would be affected by the opening and closing of a handful of natural resources projects, like Yukon’s population used to go up and down depending on whether the Faro mine was in production or not.

[isaidso]

Canada added 506,235 people from Q2 2017 to Q2 2018. If Canada manages population growth of 500,000 people annually till 2031 we should add another 6,500,000 people. That would suggest a national population of 43,567,011 in 2031. With the current federal government indicating that immigration levels will bump up incrementally this figure might be the low growth scenario. We might end up in the 44-45 million range.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901
Table 17-10-0009-01 Population estimates, quarterly


2031 High Growth Scenario

NF: 480,000
PEI: 180,000
NB: 800,000
NS: 1,100,000
QC: 9,700,000
ON: 17,900,000
MB: 1,700,000
SK: 1,500,000
AB: 5,400,000
BC: 6,000,000
YK: 47,000
NWT: 48,000
NU: 49,000

Canada: 44,904,000

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Canada added 506,235 people from Q2 2017 to Q2 2018. If Canada manages population growth of 500,000 people annually till 2031 we should add another 6,500,000 people. That would suggest a national population of 43,567,011 in 2031. With the current federal government indicating that immigration levels will bump up incrementally this figure might be the low growth scenario. We might end up in the 44-45 million range.


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710000901

Is there a breakdown of that number somewhere? I assume that it includes TFWs and students, as well as landed immigrants and refugees?

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Is there a breakdown of that number somewhere? I assume that it includes TFWs and students, as well as landed immigrants and refugees?

I don't know if there is a breakdown of these figures. As far as who is included I believe this is the relevant passage.

The following groups of persons are included:

- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants with a usual place of residence in Canada;
- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants who are abroad, either on a military base or attached to a diplomatic mission;
- Canadian citizens (by birth or by naturalization) and immigrants at sea or in port aboard merchant vessels under Canadian registry or Canadian government vessels;
- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who are claiming refugee status and the family members living with them;
- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold study permits and the family members living with them;
- persons with a usual place of residence in Canada who hold work permits and the family members living with them.

For census purposes, these last three groups of people are referred to as 'non-permanent residents.' They have been included since 1991. Foreign residents are excluded from the population universe. Foreign residents are persons who belong to the following groups:

- government representatives of another country attached to the embassy, high commission or other diplomatic body of that country in Canada, and members of their families living with them;
- members of the Armed Forces of another country who are stationed in Canada, and family members living with them;
- residents of another country visiting Canada temporarily (for example, a foreign visitor on vacation or on business, with or without a visitor's permit).

http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV...rvey&SDDS=3601