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  #61  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2007, 9:22 PM
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Why? These buildings aren't going to get built without first getting tenants, regardless.
Yes, I am aware of that as I noted it in my post. All I'm saying is that you never know how the market will turn, and if for some reason it goes down hill, 3/4 of these building's probably would not be built. The longer it takes to find tenants, the more they are riding the market. That is just a fact of the industry.

Look at the early to mid 1990's. A whole generation of buildings lost due to a crappy market. Luckily now the demand for commercial space in on a standstill of success, however it won't last forever. That is why I made note of the importance that these developers land tenants so that they can get these things in the skyline as soon as possible.
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  #62  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2007, 9:34 PM
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What are you talking about? The NYC market is easily the tightest in the country. Midtown vacancy is practically 0%.

Even if the market did worsen, no building site will be "lost". Developers will just delay projects. The sites will all eventually be built, whether sooner or later.
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  #63  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2007, 9:52 PM
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What are you talking about? The NYC market is easily the tightest in the country. Midtown vacancy is practically 0%.

Even if the market did worsen, no building site will be "lost". Developers will just delay projects. The sites will all eventually be built, whether sooner or later.


1st off: Yes, the NYC market is the best of the country and probably the world. However, just as soon as markets rise they fall. During the early to mid 1990's there was a huge plunge in the real estate market causing many real estate and development firms to go bankrupt (including nearly Donald Trump who was on of the few to luckily escape but at a costly price). An entire generation of architecture was lost due to that crash. In addition to all the companies flushed down the toilet, there were many projects that just could not stay afloat, nor could be put on hold due to financial reasons.

The same thing happened post 9/11 for a couple of years only not as severe. Now granted is was due to the attacks, the market still stood in the mud and did not rebound for a lenghtly period which sunk projects such as the Stock Exchange Tower.

The bottom line is that it is not as simple as putting a project on hold. Development firms stay alive by making money through projects. If no income is coming in there is no way to support further projects. In retrospect there is simply no time to put a tower on hold (unless for a short amount of time to work through zoning or legal issues). It's easier said than done.

How do I know all this? For the last two years and two plus more to come I have been studying real estate and business (inspiring to own my own real estate development corporation). The industry is very cut throat and fragile at the same time (especially with commercial projects). It is imporatant to get tenants as soon as possible. By not doing so projects can sink like a lead balloon. There are endless deadlines with banks (ehhh....it just gets so complicated).

To put it in plain english: the sooner the better.
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  #64  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2007, 2:55 PM
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So how will caissons, foundations, etc. be laid around the tracks?
The ntowers are to go on the plots right around the tracks, which are likely to be covered with a platform for a park.
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  #65  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2007, 12:37 AM
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If you know something about real estate then, you'd know that really NYC is probably one of the least risky markets in the world. You'd also know that the market is very imperfect, immediately after 9/11 was the best time to develop, when everyone was scared.

Durst took what looked like a risk to everyone else, was actually a great opportunity. True experts know that the best time to invest is in a down market... total chaos. An upturn in the market is one of the worst, once the land is secured, the market turns sour and your left holding overpriced real estate with no tennants.

In addition, in a market that continually surges upward, if you are conservative and sit out a strong market, you may be waiting quite some time for that downturn and miss opportunities along the way.

Really, NYC is not much of a risk. It has all the fundamentals and important infrastructure of a big city to ensure its success, hell, the most destructive attack on US soil with more American casualties in one day then any other in its history has not stopped the city. There is little that can.
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  #66  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2007, 1:07 AM
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If you know something about real estate then, you'd know that really NYC is probably one of the least risky markets in the world. You'd also know that the market is very imperfect, immediately after 9/11 was the best time to develop, when everyone was scared.
I was not so much speaking towards NYC rather the market in any city. I used some examples from NYC of times when the market was a disaster though.

However, yes you are right. Cities like New York, London, & Hong Kong are very low risk cities because the demand for commercial space is very good. However again, there is always a bit of a risk no matter what city you are building in. Manhattan during the early to mid 90's is a prime example.

After 9/11 though, there was a dry spell. Buildings like Ernst & Young, Bear Sterns, Random House, and Reuters were all u/c before the attacks. 2002-2004 was a dry time for commercial development because companies were frightened by the attacks. That is what's called an un-forced slump. The market plunged a little because of the attacks, not the demand. Companies were 50/50 on Manhattan and were considering other cities such as London (9/11 actually was a main contributor to London catching up big time to Manhattan as the financial capitol).
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  #67  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2007, 6:47 AM
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out of all the towers mentioned, the only tower that i see as a sure fire guaranteed sellout even if the market collapses is 11 Times Sq. The location is practically the most prime location left, perhaps now eclipsed by the possible Penn Station tower. Thats what boggled my mind about 11 ts. when you have solid gold real estate, why wait years and years to do anything with it.
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  #68  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2007, 3:22 PM
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out of all the towers mentioned, the only tower that i see as a sure fire guaranteed sellout even if the market collapses is 11 Times Sq. The location is practically the most prime location left, perhaps now eclipsed by the possible Penn Station tower. Thats what boggled my mind about 11 ts. when you have solid gold real estate, why wait years and years to do anything with it.
Perhaps they are waiting for bank loans. Many times Developers take out loans from banks to fund a majority of the project. But it's not that easy. They have to state a case, show how they are going to pay back a large sum of money, give a timetable, etc. That in itself could take over a year.

Or it can be a number of other things. Zoning conflicts (I doubt for ths particular project), waiting for a good market (not likely in this case), or even conflicts with the architect (which is possible because there have been multiple designs for this tower).

There are many different aspects that contribute to the construction of a tower. It can take a year before groud-breaking, or it can take five years, or more for that matter. Banks, investment partners, tenants, markets, architects, contractors, zoning, legal aspects, on others are all obstacles to get a tower (or any project) up in the air. It can be a long, aggressive, and for sure delicate process.
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  #69  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2007, 6:27 PM
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it was milstein i thought back then who was sitting on it. anyways, off topic

LECOM:The towers are to go on the plots right around the tracks, which are likely to be covered with a platform for a park.

for brookfield the towers i believe will be in the four corners of the site leaving the middle kind of open. But south eastern corner of the site is open trainyard, not a parking lot like the other 3 corners. Thats got to be a major challenge. I believe that is also where the tallest of the 4 towers will be. Since the tracks below can not be closed. Im not entirely sure how the foundations will be.
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  #70  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2007, 8:51 PM
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So how will caissons, foundations, etc. be laid around the tracks?
Don't know about that one, but reportedly, an agreement was worked out years ago between developers and the railroads.
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  #71  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2007, 8:53 PM
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Yes, I am aware of that as I noted it in my post. All I'm saying is that you never know how the market will turn, and if for some reason it goes down hill, 3/4 of these building's probably would not be built. The longer it takes to find tenants, the more they are riding the market.
What you mean to say is, they probably would not be built tomorrow. But the space will be built ultimately and eventually because it has to. New York always needs new "Class A" office space, and the push towards more "green" space will just escalate that. Other than the WTC towers, which are pretty much under construction, the last place for expanded office growth is on Manhattan's west side.
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  #72  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2007, 12:33 AM
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But the space will be built ultimately and eventually because it has to. New York always needs new "Class A" office space, and the push towards more "green" space will just escalate that.
Yes, right now Manhattan is in desperate need of class "A" office space. However, these developers are not going to build until they have secured tenants.
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  #73  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2007, 4:39 AM
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Dac, you def cleared up a few things!

4.7msf is quite a lot, I've always wanted to know, would developers like Brookfield, build on this land with the typical 700ft glass towers or really make vie to max out the sq alotted? I imagine there is higher return on more conservative towers probably based on variables that you've mentioned before. Is there really a sort of financial height barrier, or sweet spot within the development community? Personally, I think that it was always short sighted not to max out the sq ft on a tower in NYC when, in the very long term it will be rented out.
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  #74  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2007, 11:47 AM
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Dac, you def cleared up a few things!

4.7msf is quite a lot, I've always wanted to know, would developers like Brookfield, build on this land with the typical 700ft glass towers or really make vie to max out the sq alotted?
The site is so small, if they are going to build the 4 msf, the towers would have to be above 700 ft.


Quote:
Personally, I think that it was always short sighted not to max out the sq ft on a tower in NYC when, in the very long term it will be rented out.
Most developers in NY not only max out on the allowable sq ft, but some even go above with special provisions from the City.

I can't imagine why they would want to squeeze two residential towers on the site, totaling about .7 msf of the entire development. But with this tower (below) already starting just to the west, we could see more residential sooner rather than later...

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  #75  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2007, 1:49 PM
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Dac, you def cleared up a few things!

4.7msf is quite a lot, I've always wanted to know, would developers like Brookfield, build on this land with the typical 700ft glass towers or really make vie to max out the sq alotted? I imagine there is higher return on more conservative towers probably based on variables that you've mentioned before. Is there really a sort of financial height barrier, or sweet spot within the development community? Personally, I think that it was always short sighted not to max out the sq ft on a tower in NYC when, in the very long term it will be rented out.
Thank you, I'm glad I could help.

Well in this case being that there is no height restriction, the developers can build as high and as big as they can afford. Brookfield is a reputable firm though, so I am expecting some good designs.

They will try to incorporate GREEN features into the buildings to make them more echo friendly. GREEN based buildings are whats "in" in development these days. They not only benefit the enviroment, but also enhances the buildings chances of being approved.

In this case, Brookfield will try to max out what they can to allow as much square footage as possible. It's simple: more room equals more money. I believe they are erecting some sort of park to go along with the complex, but I might be mistaking.

Overall, I would count on Brookfield putting together some nice buildings.
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  #76  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2007, 6:45 PM
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They will try to incorporate GREEN features into the buildings to make them more echo friendly. GREEN based buildings are whats "in" in development these days. They not only benefit the enviroment, but also enhances the buildings chances of being approved.
Yes, "green" features are what the newest commercial towers are all about these days. However, there's no special approval needed for construction. Zoning is already in place for what's planned.
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  #77  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2007, 6:54 PM
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Yes, "green" features are what the newest commercial towers are all about these days. However, there's no special approval needed for construction. Zoning is already in place for what's planned.
Would you say they have a general idea of what they want the buildings to look like by now? I have seen some renders on the forum, but they are not core designs.

I think its just a matter of finding tenants now, and that's all it will be (the duration of waiting time til' construction).
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  #78  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2007, 7:16 PM
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Would you say they have a general idea of what they want the buildings to look like by now? I have seen some renders on the forum, but they are not core designs.

I think its just a matter of finding tenants now, and that's all it will be (the duration of waiting time til' construction).
I haven't seen any renderings for the site. Reportedly David Childs of SOM has designs for the first tower already.
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  #79  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2007, 7:24 PM
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I haven't seen any renderings for the site. Reportedly David Childs of SOM has designs for the first tower already.
Not good marketing if you ask me. If I were a company, I would like to see what the building looks like first before I buy into it.
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  #80  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2007, 10:13 PM
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Not good marketing if you ask me. If I were a company, I would like to see what the building looks like first before I buy into it.
That's what the renderings are for...

Quote:
BROOKFIELD Properties is readying plans for four towers totaling 4.7 million feet at the rear of the Farley Post Office on the west side of Ninth Avenue between 31st and 33rd streets. "It will be an awesome location," Ric Clark, Brookfield's CEO, said at the Young Men's and Women's Real Estate Association luncheon yesterday.

Clark said plans call for the east end of the plot to host two office towers sharing 4 million square feet while the west end will have two residential towers totaling 700,000 feet.

They hope to kick off marketing the northern office tower of 1.6 million square feet within the next few weeks, for delivery in late 2010. That process will begin with the sharing of new renderings now being prepared by Skidmore Owings Merrill.
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