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  #161  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2019, 2:51 PM
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^ Thanks Doady, Memph, and Docere for your comparisons and explanations..I've wondered for awhile now how Toronto would look using an MSA model.
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  #162  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2019, 4:32 PM
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Seems about right
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  #163  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2019, 4:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Doady View Post
Toronto MSA if it includes Hamilton would have population 7,495,818 in 2016 and the CSA would have population of 7,712,675. The only difference between the CSA compared to the MSA would be the addition of the cities of Barrie and Kawartha Lakes.
So going by your numbers and current growth rate of just the GTHA the Toronto CSA would be over 8.1 million today and will reach 10 million in 16 years.
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  #164  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2019, 5:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Doady View Post
Oshawa would not be its own MSA by US standards since MSAs are based on county-level boundaries and Durham Region would definitely be included in the Toronto MSA.

63.4% of Hamilton residents work in Hamilton, 19.5% work in Halton, 5.21% in Peel, 4.95% in Toronto. If Halton is considered part of the "core" of the Toronto MSA then Hamilton could be included in Toronto MSA as well.

66.3% of Barrie residents work in Barrie, while 22.7 work in Toronto, Peel, York, Durham so it would be its own MSA while Simcoe County which completely surrounds it would be part of the Toronto MSA, which is kinda weird.

Only 16.8% of Niagara Region work anywhere outside of the Region and most of those work in Hamilton, so it would not be part of a Toronto CSA.

Only 16.5% of Waterloo Region work anywhere outside of the Region, 6.6% in Toronto, Peel, Halton, York, Durham so it would not be part of Toronto CSA.

Only 12.0% of Guelph works in Toronto, Peel, Halton, York, Durham so it would not be part of Toronto CSA. 15.5% of residents work in Waterloo Region, so it would be in the Kitchener-Waterloo CSA instead.

7.1% of City of Peterborough and 13.8% of the County of Peterborough works in the Toronto area so they would not be included in the CSA either.

So Toronto MSA would definitely add Oshawa CMA (part of Durham), City of Burlington (part of Halton), all of Dufferin County, and possibly City of Hamilton, but not any more. The CSA would include Barrie and Kawartha Lakes but not Guelph or St. Catharines. No matter which definition you choose, Toronto is not a metropolitan area of 9 milllion people.

Toronto MSA if it includes Hamilton would have population 7,495,818 in 2016 and the CSA would have population of 7,712,675. The only difference between the CSA compared to the MSA would be the addition of the cities of Barrie and Kawartha Lakes.

I don't think you can automatically assume Canadian metropolitan areas would be larger by US definitions. Distances are shorter in Canada and I think that is reflected in the much higher transit ridership in Canada compared to the US.

6.4% in the Guelph CMA take transit to work compared to 6.2% in the Baltimore MSA. Guelph, a metropolitan area of 151,000 people and 70 buses, has better transit ridership than Baltimore, Portland, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Denver, etc. The local transit system of Guelph can be effective because 64.2% of the people living there also work there. Despite its small size and its very close proximity to the GTA, Hamilton and Waterloo Region, the people of Guelph mostly travel locally, not regionally. It's a very self-contained city.
Hamilton would be considered a "core county" though thanks to over 25% of its workers commuting into the GTA (only barely - it's at 26% atm) and thanks to it being contiguous with the Toronto urban area. US Census Bureau is fairly lenient with what they consider "contiguous" so they allow for small gaps and crossing of small bodies of water.

Outlying non-core MSA counties are defined as having >25% commuting into the core counties but not having the majority of the population living in the main urban area. Due to Hamilton and Durham being core counties, that means in addition to Dufferin County, Kawartha Lakes and Haldimand County would qualify. I only have 22.3% of Simcoe County residents commuting into the GTHA so it wouldn't qualify, not sure where your numbers are coming from.

CSA combinations are made using 2 way interchange value rather than 1 way as with MSA counties. That means you'd have to take the % of people in the smaller MSA commuting into the big one PLUS the percent of jobs in the smaller MSA held by residents of the big one. As a result, not only would Simcoe County (Barrie-Orillia MSA) be included (MSAs are defined at the county level rather than municipality) but also Northumberland County (Cobourg-Port Hope mSA), Peterborough County (MSA) and Brantford County (Brantford-Paris MSA).

I'm assuming we combine "independent cities" like Brantford and Peterborough with their surrounding counties.
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  #165  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2019, 5:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Doady View Post
I don't think you can automatically assume Canadian metropolitan areas would be larger by US definitions. Distances are shorter in Canada and I think that is reflected in the much higher transit ridership in Canada compared to the US.
I can live with that. Having more commuters driving in from Guelph or Niagara Region or Barrie would not make Toronto any "better" or vibrant even if it pushed up the "MSA" number.
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  #166  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2019, 5:40 PM
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Originally Posted by memph View Post
Hamilton would be considered a "core county" though thanks to over 25% of its workers commuting into the GTA (only barely - it's at 26% atm) and thanks to it being contiguous with the Toronto urban area. US Census Bureau is fairly lenient with what they consider "contiguous" so they allow for small gaps and crossing of small bodies of water.
Yup, just neighboring Burlington alone pushes it over the top since it's in Halton Region. Burlington functions as a suburb of both Hamilton and Toronto.
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  #167  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2019, 7:43 PM
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Originally Posted by memph View Post
Hamilton would be considered a "core county" though thanks to over 25% of its workers commuting into the GTA (only barely - it's at 26% atm) and thanks to it being contiguous with the Toronto urban area. US Census Bureau is fairly lenient with what they consider "contiguous" so they allow for small gaps and crossing of small bodies of water.

Outlying non-core MSA counties are defined as having >25% commuting into the core counties but not having the majority of the population living in the main urban area. Due to Hamilton and Durham being core counties, that means in addition to Dufferin County, Kawartha Lakes and Haldimand County would qualify. I only have 22.3% of Simcoe County residents commuting into the GTHA so it wouldn't qualify, not sure where your numbers are coming from.
I wasn't sure about Halton being considered a "core" county since it does have Milton and Georgetown urban areas. Maybe Durham is the bigger question mark since most people there live in the Oshawa urban area rather than the Toronto urban area.
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  #168  
Old Posted Apr 22, 2019, 4:01 PM
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Pretty sure Halton and Durham would be core counties. Dufferin would be an example of an outlying county.
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  #169  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2019, 4:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Razor View Post
Question for someone in the know?

As a side note, I also feel that sister cites are an appropriate relationship for Windsor and Detroit..Like other posters have mentioned, It's cool how they appear to be one seamless city from certain angles on the Windsor side though..That "miliaritized" border being the only stop gap separating the two..I wonder how Canadian nurses feel when they cross back over that "military zone" to get back to their suburban gardens and BBQ's after their shifts. Probably too exhausted from working in the trauma unit that day.
All of those nurses (and pretty much anyone else who lives in Ontario but works in Michigan) would have a Nexus card which essentially makes the border a non-issue. It's true that 9/11 made everything more rigid but I don't think people realize how many cross-border families there are in this region. It's not a seamless metro area but it's certainly well integrated.
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  #170  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2019, 8:24 AM
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Originally Posted by memph View Post
Do you take issue with the inclusion of places like Kawartha Lakes, Haldimand County and Dufferin County in Toronto's numbers? Or Hamilton? Or even more close in suburbs like Milton, Newmarket and Whitby?

Your view of cities does seem kind of Euro-centric. London and Paris are older cities that haven't grown that much since the time that automobiles have begun replacing rail, so they haven't much more developed rail networks - which also happen to be quite centralized and encourage the inner 5-10% of the land mass of the urban areas of those cities to be very prominent as job centres.

A lot of Toronto's suburban employment doesn't require as much centralization as the financial and government sectors that are a big part of Paris and London's economy. Its suburbs have a lot of other business services, construction, engineering, manufacturing and tech sector jobs. A lot of that employment is still dependent on proximity to Downtown Toronto, it just doesn't need to be within downtown, 15-30km away works too. I think the manufacturing sector still employs around 10% of Toronto's population compared to less than 5% of London and Paris' population, and it's a fairly land intensive form of employment that can't really be located in city cores.

Although Toronto might have more suburban employment than Paris or London, it's still less than most American cities and probably not that different from a lot of Latin American and Asian cities - which while denser on average - are also relatively decentralized.
Kawartha Lakes, Haldimand County and Dufferin counties are sparsely populated rural communities, with no rail and limited road connections to Toronto. Hamilton is a city in its own right, with its own catchment; the journey by car and train is 60-minutes and 75-minutes respectively (and just six trains per day heading to Toronto). Milton, Newmarket and Whitby demonstrate better connectivity as demonstrated by better highway connections and rail capacity. Put in context though that the average commute to Toronto is 34 minutes and Toronto is unquestionably a service-driven economy focused on the primary employment hub of Downtown. Without fast access into the Downtown, the catchment of the city is heavily reduced.

As for my perspective; it is global, hence the earlier references to Tokyo and Manila. There is also little dispute that North American cities are more car-orientated, although outside of many core areas globally, the car and/or other combustion engine vehicles are also the primary means of transport. Cars simply don’t provide an efficient mode of transporting vast numbers that rail provides.

I’ll have to let a Parisian explain the historical urban morphology of their city. London recently surpassed its pre-WW2 population peak a few years ago, but that wasn’t for lack of growth, but two government policies. The Green Belt Act 1938 which stopped sprawl just when the automobile was gaining traction, and the post-war policy of redistributing London’s population into new towns, garden cities and former market-towns. Growth just got redistributed to the surrounding regions, hence the massive commuter flows into London, for example the London, Tilbury & Southend Railway (used by more people than the Lakeshore West, Lakeshore East, Kitchener and Milton lines combined) which runs along the south Essex coast, most of which is post-WW2 development.

In the developed world we inflate the size of our cities far too much.
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  #171  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2019, 6:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Razor View Post
^ Thanks Doady, Memph, and Docere for your comparisons and explanations..I've wondered for awhile now how Toronto would look using an MSA model.
Me too. It's good to see a detailed analysis but for practical purposes using Greater Toronto - Hamilton is a quick and easy way to give a fairly accurate approximation. Most of us aren't going to have the data or time to do a complete analysis when asked how Toronto's population compares to a particular US MSA. In 2018 the Toronto metropolitan area was roughly the same size as the Dallas MSA.

Regarding detailed analysis I'm also interested in the reverse. What would US metros look like if they used the CMA model?
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Last edited by isaidso; Apr 23, 2019 at 6:45 PM.
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  #172  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2019, 7:09 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Regarding detailed analysis I'm also interested in the reverse. What would US metros look like if they used the CMA model?
Would be difficult to do in states where there are a lot of unincorporated areas.
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  #173  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2019, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Doady View Post

Only 16.8% of Niagara Region work anywhere outside of the Region and most of those work in Hamilton, so it would not be part of a Toronto CSA.
That is until the near future when Niagara gets all day GO train service to Toronto from Grimsby, Beamsville, St. Catharines and Niagara Falls
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  #174  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2019, 7:43 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Me too. It's good to see a detailed analysis but for practical purposes using Greater Toronto - Hamilton is a quick and easy way to give a fairly accurate approximation. Most of us aren't going to have the data or time to do a complete analysis when asked how Toronto's population compares to a particular US MSA. In 2018 the Toronto metropolitan area was roughly the same size as the Dallas MSA.

Regarding detailed analysis I'm also interested in the reverse. What would US metros look like if they used the CMA model?
Regarding Toronto as a MSA / CSA :

The Toronto MSA would have a population of 7,482,255 and :
  • Take Toronto, Peel, York and (yes!) Halton as central counties. Halton was tricky : 193114 people live in the Toronto population centre (PC), 177613 in the Hamilton PC, and 101745 in the Milton PC. So it leans towards Toronto. "A central county is associated with the urbanized area or urban cluster that accounts for the largest portion of the county's population".
  • Take Dufferin (42.9%), Durham (42.4%) and Hamilton (25.6%) as outlying counties because of their interchange percentages with the central counties reaching the 25% threshold.

So YES, it is okay to say that the Toronto-Oshawa-Hamilton area kind of acts as an american MSA.

The Toronto CSA would have a population of 8,149,681 and include :
  • The Barrie–Orillia–Bradford MSA (population: 519,135), as it has an interchange measure of 22.9% with the Toronto MSA (threshold is 15%).
  • The Brantford–Paris MSA (population: 148,291), as it has an interchange measure of 15.8% with the Toronto MSA.

Other facts :
  • Guelph–Fergus would form its own MSA (pop.: 237,028), but would rather be included inside the Kitchener CSA (interchange: 16.7%) by a very slim margin (the interchange with Toronto MSA is at 15.7%)
  • St. Catharines–Niagara–Welland would also form its own MSA (pop.: 472,448) and would not be included in the Toronto CSA either (the interchange measure was 13.7% last census).

Sources :
Commuting numbers for counties, census of 2016
Official population estimates for Counties, July 1 2018
Population centres (urban areas) : official data
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  #175  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2019, 4:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Doady View Post
I wasn't sure about Halton being considered a "core" county since it does have Milton and Georgetown urban areas. Maybe Durham is the bigger question mark since most people there live in the Oshawa urban area rather than the Toronto urban area.
If you're going by the StatsCan definition of urban areas, Oshawa/Whitby/Courtice would be a separate urban area, therefore less than 50% of Durham Region's population lives in Toronto's urban area, therefore it's not a "core county". However, the US Census Bureau allows for gaps in development that are up to 2.5 miles long along a road connection between two built up areas (although they don't allow any additional jumps from that secondary built up area). So since the gap between Whitby and Ajax is only 1.4 miles I'm pretty sure Whitby, Oshawa and Courtice would qualify as part of Toronto's urban area.

https://www.federalregister.gov/docu...he-2010-census
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  #176  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2019, 5:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Laceoflight View Post
Regarding Toronto as a MSA / CSA :

The Toronto MSA would have a population of 7,482,255 and :
  • Take Toronto, Peel, York and (yes!) Halton as central counties. Halton was tricky : 193114 people live in the Toronto population centre (PC), 177613 in the Hamilton PC, and 101745 in the Milton PC. So it leans towards Toronto. "A central county is associated with the urbanized area or urban cluster that accounts for the largest portion of the county's population".
  • Take Dufferin (42.9%), Durham (42.4%) and Hamilton (25.6%) as outlying counties because of their interchange percentages with the central counties reaching the 25% threshold.

So YES, it is okay to say that the Toronto-Oshawa-Hamilton area kind of acts as an american MSA.

The Toronto CSA would have a population of 8,149,681 and include :
  • The Barrie–Orillia–Bradford MSA (population: 519,135), as it has an interchange measure of 22.9% with the Toronto MSA (threshold is 15%).
  • The Brantford–Paris MSA (population: 148,291), as it has an interchange measure of 15.8% with the Toronto MSA.

Other facts :
  • Guelph–Fergus would form its own MSA (pop.: 237,028), but would rather be included inside the Kitchener CSA (interchange: 16.7%) by a very slim margin (the interchange with Toronto MSA is at 15.7%)
  • St. Catharines–Niagara–Welland would also form its own MSA (pop.: 472,448) and would not be included in the Toronto CSA either (the interchange measure was 13.7% last census).

Sources :
Commuting numbers for counties, census of 2016
Official population estimates for Counties, July 1 2018
Population centres (urban areas) : official data
I suppose it depends whether you built the Canadian MSAs using StatsCan Population Centres or US Census Bureau Urban Areas. I'm pretty sure the US Census Bureau would include Burlington in Toronto's urban area even though StatsCan has it in Hamilton's. I'm pretty sure Hamilton would be included in Toronto's urban area as well.
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  #177  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2019, 7:27 AM
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Originally Posted by nito View Post
Kawartha Lakes, Haldimand County and Dufferin counties are sparsely populated rural communities, with no rail and limited road connections to Toronto. Hamilton is a city in its own right, with its own catchment; the journey by car and train is 60-minutes and 75-minutes respectively (and just six trains per day heading to Toronto). Milton, Newmarket and Whitby demonstrate better connectivity as demonstrated by better highway connections and rail capacity. Put in context though that the average commute to Toronto is 34 minutes and Toronto is unquestionably a service-driven economy focused on the primary employment hub of Downtown. Without fast access into the Downtown, the catchment of the city is heavily reduced.

As for my perspective; it is global, hence the earlier references to Tokyo and Manila. There is also little dispute that North American cities are more car-orientated, although outside of many core areas globally, the car and/or other combustion engine vehicles are also the primary means of transport. Cars simply don’t provide an efficient mode of transporting vast numbers that rail provides.

I’ll have to let a Parisian explain the historical urban morphology of their city. London recently surpassed its pre-WW2 population peak a few years ago, but that wasn’t for lack of growth, but two government policies. The Green Belt Act 1938 which stopped sprawl just when the automobile was gaining traction, and the post-war policy of redistributing London’s population into new towns, garden cities and former market-towns. Growth just got redistributed to the surrounding regions, hence the massive commuter flows into London, for example the London, Tilbury & Southend Railway (used by more people than the Lakeshore West, Lakeshore East, Kitchener and Milton lines combined) which runs along the south Essex coast, most of which is post-WW2 development.

In the developed world we inflate the size of our cities far too much.
Well, I included Haldimand, Kawartha Lakes and Dufferin because by US Census Bureau criteria it seems like they could be considered outlying MSA counties. The commuting ties between the biggest towns of those counties and the suburban GTHA are quite significant, but ultimately it doesn't matter too much whether you include them because the GTHA grows by that amount each year. The GTHA will hit 10 million people within a couple decades whether or not you include them.

I would say that places like Mississauga, Brampton, Markham and Vaughan are an integral part of Toronto at this point, and should be considered part of Toronto's job market when we're talking about whether more outlying bedroom community-esque suburbs have enough commuters working in Toronto to be considered part of its metro area. Much of Mississauga's employment is tied to it being home to Toronto's international airport, Vaughan's large employment zone came about in large part thanks to being home to Toronto's main train yard.

The office parks along the QEW in Burlington that are responsible for the commuting ties between Hamilton and the GTA are a bit more far removed from Toronto, so I'd agree it's less clear cut. But there's plenty of other cities where the boundary between the two historic centers becomes blurred as a result of the connections to the suburbs that sprung up between them (ex DFW). You can try and keep them separate for now, but 20 years from now, when Toronto more seriously approaches the 10 million mark, that could be more difficult. By then, you might see train service get expanded, the Mid-Peninsula highway get built with the section from Hamilton to Milton and Brampton, and Halton Region's population and job centers continuing to boom and increase the connectivity between Hamilton and Toronto's western suburbs.

Sure, I get that London has grown since WWII, but it's not the same as with Toronto. The London Commuter Belt grew what? 11 million to 14.5 million? You can make incremental additions to the transportation network and development patterns from the early 20th century to accommodate that growth without having to restructure the metropolitan area. That's harder to do when your metropolitan area grows from about 1 million to 7-8 million like Toronto did during the same time period when the growth will much more likely be influenced by the new technologies that came about during that time (ie cars).

And although Toronto is a service economy, I still wouldn't underestimate the other sectors. As I see it, what matters is the self-sustaining sectors that interact with and bring in money from the outside world. Where those jobs locate will affect the form of the metropolitan area more, while other sectors like retail and local public services (ex grade schools) just follow the people who follow those jobs. I'd argue construction and real estate is also similar to retail in that it's dependent on the success of other sectors.

Toronto still has close to 10% of it's population employed in manufacturing, and that'll also significantly influence where the jobs in wholesale trade, warehouse and transportation go. Most of that is in the suburbs. And all those jobs will also bring along all those service sector and public sector jobs. Manufacturing actually employs more people in the Toronto area than the Finance and Insurance sector, which I doubt is the case in London.
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  #178  
Old Posted Apr 25, 2019, 3:19 PM
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To add to these discussions, the Province of Ontario has population growth estimates, which include the Greater Golden Horseshoe as discussed earlier.

One can extract the smaller numbers from the document and include/exclude at will.

http://placestogrow.ca/index.php?opt...d=14#schedule3


The document is roughly 2 year old. From what I know, growth is currently exceeding the planned/estimated pace.

The population estimates for 2041 are:

GTHA: 10,130,000

GGH: 13,480,000
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  #179  
Old Posted Apr 28, 2019, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by memph View Post

Toronto still has close to 10% of it's population employed in manufacturing, and that'll also significantly influence where the jobs in wholesale trade, warehouse and transportation go. Most of that is in the suburbs. And all those jobs will also bring along all those service sector and public sector jobs. Manufacturing actually employs more people in the Toronto area than the Finance and Insurance sector, which I doubt is the case in London.
The industry declined significantly over the 2000's which I think led many to "forget" about it as it's no longer the driving force of growth in the Metro.. but Up until the 2000's Toronto was a manufacturing town with a bit of finance and insurance downtown.

Since the recession the Canadian banks have done brisk business and become key growth drivers along with tech, while Manufacturing has fallen behind. It's easy to forget that Toronto of 20 years ago was a manufacturing town.
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  #180  
Old Posted Apr 29, 2019, 3:33 AM
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Anecdotally, Toronto still feels very industrial. It may not be Shenzhen, but there is a huge number of small and medium-sized enterprises manufacturing and distributing just about everything.

The giant swath of warehouses and industry clustered around the airport is one of the biggest industrial districts I've seen in North America; Toronto actually appears off-white in zoomed-out satellite photos of the Great Lakes, largely thanks to this part of town.
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