Latest Population estimate of Canada's Metropolitan Areas

[nito]

Toronto as a 10mn mega city

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Greater Toronto-Hamilton is an appropriate catchment area to use when comparing 'Toronto' to other metropolitan areas. It behaves and looks like 1 metro even though Stats Canada separates it out as 3 separate metros. Some say that we'll never see another city in the developed world reach that 10 million 'mega-city' benchmark but I'd be shocked if Toronto doesn't get there. 15 years from now?

I would be shocked if Toronto has 10 million within 15 years, but I assume by "Toronto" you're including millions of people not actually within the metro. Toronto, by American metro standards, is a metro of maybe 7 million. And that's more CSA standard than MSA.

Also, there are plenty of metros in developed world that will reach 10 million. Chicago, if it ever starts growing again, is almost right there. Dallas will get there long before Toronto. Bay Area and DC, by CSA, are almost there. Houston and Atlanta are plausible (though I shudder to imagine North GA with 10 million in sprawl).

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I would be shocked if Toronto has 10 million within 15 years, but I assume by "Toronto" you're including millions of people not actually within the metro. Toronto, by American metro standards, is a metro of maybe 7 million. And that's more CSA standard than MSA.

Also, there are plenty of metros in developed world that will reach 10 million. Chicago, if it ever starts growing again, is almost right there. Dallas will get there long before Toronto. Bay Area and DC, by CSA, are almost there. Houston and Atlanta are plausible (though I shudder to imagine North GA with 10 million in sprawl).

Toronto should include Hamilton and Oshawa as there has really been no separation for years. It is continuous sprawl. Combined, this makes 7.5M+ in 2018. Based on current growth rates (and as Canada's premier city, I don't see this changing), I expect Toronto to reach 10M within 20 years.

[softee]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I would be shocked if Toronto has 10 million within 15 years, but I assume by "Toronto" you're including millions of people not actually within the metro. Toronto, by American metro standards, is a metro of maybe 7 million. And that's more CSA standard than MSA.

Toronto is at 7 million if you use the GTA measurement (Toronto, York, Peel, Halton and Durham), which is far smaller in area than an American CSA. The GTA would most definitely be closer to an MSA standard than a CSA. The only thing similar to a CSA for the area is the Greater Golden Horseshoe, which is already getting close to 10 million.

[Capsicum]

How do the people of St. Catharines or Peterborough feel in terms of "connectedness" to the city of Toronto vs. say how the edges of Chicagoland are to Chicago, though? Or is it similar to say the Poconos and suburban western Connecticut's connection to NYC?

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I would be shocked if Toronto has 10 million within 15 years, but I assume by "Toronto" you're including millions of people not actually within the metro. Toronto, by American metro standards, is a metro of maybe 7 million. And that's more CSA standard than MSA.

Also, there are plenty of metros in developed world that will reach 10 million. Chicago, if it ever starts growing again, is almost right there. Dallas will get there long before Toronto. Bay Area and DC, by CSA, are almost there. Houston and Atlanta are plausible (though I shudder to imagine North GA with 10 million in sprawl).

So the GTAH won't reach 10 million in the near future because it's not a valid metropolitan area, but the Washington-Baltimore or Bay Area CSA are?

You should know this by now - CSAs are not intended to be a measure of metropolitan population. Their literal definition is that they're a simply a combination of adjacent metropolitan areas - much like the 9 adjacent metropolitan areas in Ontario.

It's obviously kind of a pointless exercise because Statistics Canada calculates CMAs quite different from the way the US Census Bureau does MSAs, but the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (7.5 million) nonetheless functions a lot more cohesively as a single, MSA-like entity than something like Washington-Baltimore does.

Worth noting that the GTHA also isn't just some SSP invention to boost population, but an actually well-defined area used for government policy. One of the flaws with Stat Can's CMA standards is that they cannot be combined, even where sufficient criteria is met. Common sense would nonetheless suggest that this looks more like a single urban area than 3 separate metropolitan areas:


http://www.outlookmaps.com/shop/toronto-satellite-map

[Capsicum]

Fair, but if I were someone unfamiliar with the area, I'd think the south shore of the lake looks a bit sparse and something like St. Catharines might not register as connected to that urban blob of gray that makes up the GTA and Hamilton.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

Fair, but if I were someone unfamiliar with the area, I'd think the south shore of the lake looks a bit sparse and something like St. Catharines might not register as connected to that urban blob of gray that makes up the GTA and Hamilton.

Oh, I certainly wouldn't include St. Catherine's in there - the GTHA is just the unbroken built-up area between Oshawa and Hamilton.

[Nite]

I propably should have added this map earlier,
The areas in green can not be developed without the province changing the law

[Sun Belt]

Question:

Will America have two 20+ million metros [using MSA metric] before or after Canada has two 10+ million metros?

Currently:
New York: 20.3 million.
Los Angeles: 13.4 million.
Toronto: 6.3 million.
Montreal: 4.2 million.

[dc_denizen]

La is around 16 million

[memph]

Originally Posted by Wigs

agreed. I mean St. Catharines and Niagara Falls just recently (Jan 7) got a daily (Mon-Fri) GO Train. and it's literally just ONE train to Toronto and one train back.



I fear how quick the sprawl will accelerate once it's all day service like say Barrie or Oshawa.
The cookie cutter subdivisions are already popping up in almost every community in the Niagara Region

I have some doubts. Oshawa is still a lot closer to Toronto than Niagara Falls. It looks like it's a 2.5 hour ride on that GO train? I doubt commuters would want to do that daily especially since you'd still have to account for the time to get between the stations and the point of origin and final destination. No-one's going to commute 6 hours a day. Even if that gets reduced to 4-5 hours with electrification or what-not, I don't see it.

Perhaps it will change if Downtown Hamilton gets more developed especially around the GO station but so far that's not happening at a very significant scale.

Anyways, pretty interesting to see how much growth has shifted back towards Central Canada with the oil & gas sector being in a downturn and Vancouver's real estate market being in a cool-down phase.

Yearly growth of CMAs by region for 2001-2016 vs 2016-2018

Ontario: 159,544 -> 208,862
Alberta: 63,121 -> 53,990
Quebec: 58,069 -> 67,926
BC: 51,058 -> 47,003
SK/MB: 17,234 -> 29,132
Atlantic: 8,600 -> 11,636

Looks like there's been an increase in the rate of growth nationwide too though
Overall: 357,626 -> 418,548

[memph]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Question:

Will America have two 20+ million metros [using MSA metric] before or after Canada has two 10+ million metros?

Currently:
New York: 20.3 million.
Los Angeles: 13.4 million.
Toronto: 6.3 million.
Montreal: 4.2 million.

No, because LA and Montreal will never reach those populations (unless LA's MSA merges with Inland Empire+Ventura)

[memph]

Originally Posted by Nite

I propably should have added this map earlier,
The areas in green can not be developed without the province changing the law

Were those subdivisions under construction in King City, Nobleton and Stouffville approved before that plan was enacted then? They seem like they're in off-limit areas.

[memph]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I would be shocked if Toronto has 10 million within 15 years, but I assume by "Toronto" you're including millions of people not actually within the metro. Toronto, by American metro standards, is a metro of maybe 7 million. And that's more CSA standard than MSA.

Also, there are plenty of metros in developed world that will reach 10 million. Chicago, if it ever starts growing again, is almost right there. Dallas will get there long before Toronto. Bay Area and DC, by CSA, are almost there. Houston and Atlanta are plausible (though I shudder to imagine North GA with 10 million in sprawl).

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=204356

Back then, using 2006 and 2011, Hamilton was right at the cut-off for commuting interchange required to be part of the Toronto MSA. It fell just short using 2006 Census data but just barely made it using 2011 Transportation Tomorrow Survey data. Considering the Western GTA is growing faster than Hamilton, and train service between Hamilton and downtown Toronto has experienced significant improvements, I think it should be increasingly safe to consider Hamilton part of the Toronto "MSA".

Kawartha Lakes and Dufferin County would qualify as outlying exurban MSA counties thanks to high commuting rates into Toronto's suburbs, and Haldimand County would qualify as an outlying county mainly thanks to high commuting rates into Hamilton.

The cut-off for CSAs is very low. The Barrie-Orillia, Peterborough "MSAs" and Cobourgh-Port Hope "mSA" would qualify for inclusion, and the Branford MSA would too thanks to high commuting interchange with Hamilton.

The St. Catharines-Niagara MSA barely qualified and will probably remain at the "barely qualifying" threshold for a while since the Greenbelt prevents growth from occurring between St Catharines and Hamilton so that they can be more connected and forcing the growth in Niagara Region to occur in places that are quite far removed from Hamilton. If the Mid-Peninsula Highway ever gets built that might change though. Still, according to the 2011 data, it makes the cut.

The Guelph MSA has sufficient commuting interchange with Toronto to join its CSA too, by a fairly comfortable margin, but the commuting interchange is even higher with the Kitchener-Waterloo MSA, which is well short of the requirement to join Toronto's MSA. AFAIK in such cases, precedence is given to the MSA with the highest commuting interchange rather than the one with the highest population but I could be wrong.

Therefore, using 2018 estimates

Toronto MSA: 7,200,000
Toronto CSA: 8,440,000

With current growth rates of 139,000, the "CSA" would reach 10 million in 11 years.

Based off 2010-2017 growth rates, the Dallas CSA will get there in 14 years, the Bay Area CSA will get there in 11 years, and the Washington-Baltimore CSA will make it in 1-2 years. Houston still has 20 years to go and Atlanta has 37 years.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

La is around 16 million

LA is like 19 million by CSA. I bet you it hits 20 million by CSA before Chicago hits 10 million.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

La is around 16 million

By which metric? Most of us agree that L.A. and S.F. got shafted when it comes to MSA counts, but I was attempting to be fair because Toronto could easily add Hamilton to their counts.

[Innsertnamehere]

Interesting to see Kingston growing so quickly - the city grew by almost 8,000 people last year, which is equal to roughly the previous 9 years of growth. This is a huge change of pace for the city which had been one of the slowest growing metro's for several decades..

Anyone wanna guess why it's exploded so suddenly? Is Queen's growing? what's the sudden drive for such huge population gains?

[The North One]

Originally Posted by north 42

Windsor is also a magnet for immigrants, who are drawn to the city because of its already large visible minority population and still affordable housing.

The city’s economy is very good right now, (even with FCA’s recent announcement cancelling its third shift) with lots of jobs available, low unemployment and a very robust housing market.

Yep, Windsor's growth basically has nothing to do with the auto industry.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Question:

Will America have two 20+ million metros [using MSA metric] before or after Canada has two 10+ million metros?

Currently:
New York: 20.3 million.
Los Angeles: 13.4 million.
Toronto: 6.3 million.
Montreal: 4.2 million.

Depends on what you consider Toronto and what is the equivalent is for the US.

Toronto population is between 6.4 to 9 million based on how you measure it and growing at 125,000 to 180,000 based on what measure you are using.
So Toronto will reach 10 million in 6 years or 28 years