Housing market

[thistleclub]

Clouds gather over Canadian housing market
(Globe and Mail, Tara Perkins, Mar 15 2013)

The flicker of optimism that sparked in Canada’s housing market when January sales outpaced December’s has died out, erased by a notable drop in February.

Last month’s declines were significant enough to prompt the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) to cut its sales outlook for 2013 on Friday for the third time since last summer.

The number of homes that changed hands across the country over the Multiple Listing Service in February came in 15.8-per-cent lower than a year ago, and 2.1-per-cent lower than January.

The association is now forecasting 441,500 sales this year, a decline of 2.9 per cent from 2012. Just two months ago, it had said it expected 447,400 sales this year, and in September it had estimated 457,800 – a figure that it had already cut.

[thistleclub]

House prices to remain tepid, Scotiabank says
(Globe and Mail, Tara Perkins, Mar 18 2013)

Economists are warning Canadians not to count on any significant growth in house prices in the years ahead, with Bank of Nova Scotia’s Adrienne Warren saying in a report Monday that the key drivers of prices are looking increasingly weaker.

The new report comes one week after Toronto-Dominion Bank’s economics department said it expects price gains to average about 2 per cent a year for the next decade, hovering just around the rate of inflation.

In her report, Ms. Warren says that “the underlying fundamental factors that drive home prices – income gains, interest rates and population growth – are becoming less positive for further strong price growth over the medium and longer-term.”

During the next couple of years households are likely to work at paying off their debts while governments are in a period of fiscal restraint, and that’s likely to dampen the country’s growth prospects and income gains, the report says.

[Pearlstreet]

Maybe true, markets can be so circumstancial to location.

Hamilton with it's growth, plus the hard to ignore record low rates (2.84%). If you found a good deal, it could be worth persuing.

[Berklon]

I went to a few open houses over the weekend... all within a few miles of the downtown area. I couldn't believe how ridiculous the prices were. You couldn't get anything decent for less than 450k.

Looking on MLS is no different. Everything is so out of wack. This is Hamilton for christsakes... prices shouldn't be this high.

I'm extremely frustrated.

[movingtohamilton]

Originally Posted by Berklon

I went to a few open houses over the weekend... all within a few miles of the downtown area. I couldn't believe how ridiculous the prices were. You couldn't get anything decent for less than 450k....

Ouch! What neighbourhoods are you looking in? Last summer we got a great house in the St. Clair district for much much less than $450k.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by movingtohamilton

Ouch! What neighbourhoods are you looking in? Last summer we got a great house in the St. Clair district for much much less than $450k.

Basically anywhere south of Main from Central Hamilton (St. Claire area) up to Dundurn. Either the houses have potential but require a good deal of money to get it up to snuff, or have been renovated and are priced much higher.

Maybe I'm being picky, but for the amount of money it's requiring me to spend - I expect better than Im seeing. Looking at MLS Im not seeing anything that impresses me in a 400k price range.

[movingtohamilton]

I assume you are working with a real estate agent? If not, I highly recommend you do so. A good agent is completely plugged into the local scene and is a step or two ahead of MLS. If you want details on our agent, PM me.

[Pearlstreet]

Originally Posted by Berklon

Basically anywhere south of Main from Central Hamilton (St. Claire area) up to Dundurn. Either the houses have potential but require a good deal of money to get it up to snuff, or have been renovated and are priced much higher.

Maybe I'm being picky, but for the amount of money it's requiring me to spend - I expect better than Im seeing. Looking at MLS Im not seeing anything that impresses me in a 400k price range.

I live in Strathcona, its nice here, I love it. Close to all the future advancements so in my opinion a good bet. So far after just renewing after five years, granted a good market it went up 1/3rd of the value!

[Pearlstreet]

Please excuse my plug, but I am looking to fuel my studies and entrepreneurialism.

ATTN: Hamilton Rental Property Owners



Need an Experienced Property Manager? CLICK HERE



HIRE ME!!

[thistleclub]

New home starts steady, resale prices moving up
(Hamilton Spectator, Lisa Grace Marr, Apr 9 2013)

New sales and start figures show that steady as she goes would be the best way to describe Hamilton’s housing market.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported Tuesday housing starts for Hamilton and Burlington were on an upward six-month moving average of 3,044 units in March.

One or two multiple residential buildings in downtown Burlington can skew the figures, cautioned Abdul Kargbo, CMHC’s senior market analyst for the Hamilton and Brantford areas.

“Single (detached home starts) tend to indicate a real trend,” Kargbo said, referring to the 200 starts in the Hamilton metropolitan area from January to March 2013, compared to 228 over those same months in 2012.

At the same time, starts in the multiples market (including condos and townhouses) jumped from 72 in March 2012 to 334 in March 2013.

“In essence, in Hamilton, the housing market is relatively stable,” Kargbo said.

In related news, the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported that the average sale price for all properties in March moved up by 10.8 per cent from the same month last year.

The average sale price of a home was $392,859 in March 2013, up from $354,545 the same time last year.

That strengthening of prices is due in part to the continued migration of buyers from the GTA, said CEO Ross Godsoe.

“That’s certainly my experience, and it’s what I’ve heard from a number of others, as well,” he said.

The RAHB report also found a 14.3-per-cent decrease in sales (1,170 versus 1,365) and a 9.7-per-cent decrease in listings (1,907 versus 2,111) from the same month last year...

The CMHC’s Kargbo and Godsoe agreed the multiples market in Burlington is a trend that’s picking up steam.

“As far as Burlington is concerned... the leadership at council has been very aggressive on intensification of residential development for the past year and a half or so, and we’re now seeing the fruits of that,” said Godsoe. “That’s going to increase with a number of projects under way now.”


CMHC and RAHB data offers some varied perspectives on Q1 2013.

Via CMHC:

Hamilton Preliminary Actual Housing Start Data by Type, Q1 2013 (Q1 2012)

Burlington
Single: 7 (36)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 58 (40)
Apt: 387 (138)
Total: 452 (214)

Hamilton
Single: 185 (188)
Semi: 4 (36)
Row: 118 (214)
Apt: 99 (24)
Total: 406 (462)

Grimsby
Single: 8 (4)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 0 (62)
Apt: 0 (0)
Total: 8 (66)

Total CMA Starts
866 (742)


56% of all starts in the Hamilton CMA were apartments. 80% of apartment starts were in Burlington, and those represented 45% of all Hamilton CMA starts in Q1 2013.


Crunching RAHB's Jan/Feb/Mar 2013 sales numbers gives us:

Average Sale Price, Q1 2013

Flamborough $520,245
Burlington $470,095
Waterdown $445,808
Ancaster $445,689
Dundas $373,029
Grimsby $368,683
Stoney Creek $323,429
Glanbrook $317,332
Hamilton West $302,728
Caledonia $279,508
Hamilton Mountain $275,555
Dunnville $215,667
Hamilton East $205,787
Hamilton Centre $170,675

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Q1 2013 vs Q1 2012

Waterdown $65,343
Flamborough $48,733
Grimsby $45,304
Burlington $24,116
Caledonia $20,084
Stoney Creek $18,076
Hamilton Centre $16,714
Dundas $15,693
Hamilton Mountain $15,243
Dunnville $15,230
Hamilton East $12,856
Hamilton West $2,597
Ancaster -$10,714
Glanbrook -$19,761

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Q1 2013 vs Q1 2012

Waterdown 17.17%
Grimsby 14.01%
Hamilton Centre 10.85%
Flamborough 10.34%
Caledonia 7.74%
Dunnville 7.59%
Hamilton East 6.66%
Stoney Creek 5.92%
Hamilton Mountain 5.86%
Burlington 5.41%
Dundas 4.40%
Hamilton West 0.86%
Ancaster -0.23%
Glanbrook -0.57%

[thistleclub]

Home prices in Hamilton-Burlington rise 10%, biggest jump in country
(Hamilton Spectator, Meredith MacLeod, Apr 15 2013)

The average home price in the Hamilton-Burlington market rose 10 per cent in March over a year earlier and that was the biggest jump in the country.

New numbers released by the Canadian Real Estate Association clearly show the country’s real estate market is cooling. The number of home sales, total volume and new listings are all in decline compared to numbers last year in most markets, though nationally home sales rose 2.4 per cent from February to March.

Local home sales climbed close to 5 per cent between February and March but fell on a non-seasonally adjusted basis of nearly 15 per cent between last month and March 2012.

Transactions fell in 90 per cent of local markets year over year, with Edmonton being the only major market bucking the trend. Out of 26 markets, 19 saw double-digit sales declines in March over a year ago.

But average sale price in Hamilton and Burlington in March 2013 was $388,147, a 9.9 per cent hike over March 2012. That compared to a 3.2 per cent average increase in Ontario and 2.5 per cent nationally.

Hamilton was joined by Winnipeg and Regina at the top of the average price gains list.

The local average price climbed 2 per cent between February and March this year.

Ross Godsoe, CEO of the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington, said the inventory of homes for sale was consistently low in 2012.

“When there are fewer choices and more sales, that keeps prices strong.”

He said sales and listings have both picked up in April and he expects throughout the spring the local market will head more toward balanced territory.


From March 2012 to March 2013, RAHB findings show average sale price for all residential stock up 4.3% in Hamilton and 15.0% in Burlington.

[Berklon]

Great, an already overpriced market is even more overpriced. Ridiculous.

[HillStreetBlues]

Don't worry. You can't have declining volume and increasing prices for long. Give it a few months, and prices will follow the same trend that sales already are.

[thistleclub]

High-end homes still selling despite uneasy economy
(Hamilton Spectator, Steve Arnold, Apr 30 2013)

Economic uncertainty hasn’t done anything to cool demand for the most expensive homes in Hamilton.

A new report from real estate giant Re/Max Tuesday concludes 67 properties priced about $750,000 sold in the Hamilton-Burlington area during the first three months of this year — the same number that moved during the first quarter of last year.

“Demand is high, supply is good and people are buying — those are all good indications of a strong market,” said Conrad Zurini, of Re/Max Escarpment Realty.

The Re/Max report said close to 300 properties are currently for sale in the Hamilton-Burlington area with tight supply at points and especially strong demand in some ranges such as $800,000 to $900,000, where 40 per cent of sales this year have brought in multiple offers.

The most popular neighbourhoods for buyers with deep pockets include Tyandaga, Millcroft and the Lakeshore in Burlington, Carlisle in Flamborough and Ancaster, where older homes on estate lots priced from $300,000 to $500,000 are purchased only to be demolished to make way for custom builds.

Young professionals, entrepreneurs, and senior executives — many from the Greater Toronto Area — are behind the push.

Zurini said those buyers are being drawn by the simple fact their money buys more home here than it would in Toronto or even Oakville.

“A $750,000 house is a tremendous value here compared to Oakville or Mississauga. That price seems to be the sweet spot. For that price in Oakville, you wouldn’t get anywhere near the same value.”

Re/Max said the majority of high-end sales were single-detached homes, with only two condominiums moving in that price range so far — a Burlington condo priced at $870,000 and one in the Creekside development in Dundas priced at $812,000.

Condo prices are being held up by growing demand from aging empty-nesters and tight supply. That’s driving some people to creative solutions such as buying up adjacent units and bringing down walls.

At the very top end of the price scale, Re/Max said, the most expensive home sold in the area so far is a $2.8-million new build in the Bluffs area of Burlington. The highest priced sale so far in Hamilton was $1.4 million.

[thistleclub]

From the aforementioned report, Re/Max Upper End Market Trends 2013:

Value-conscious consumers continued to prop up demand for luxury homes in Hamilton-Burlington in the first quarter of 2013, as unit sales remain on par with last year’s peak levels. Sixty-seven properties priced in excess of $750,000 changed hands between January and March, matching the 67 transactions recorded during the same period in 2012. Close to 300 properties are currently available for sale in Hamilton-Burlington, although shortages exist at some price points. The $800,000 to $900,000 price point has experienced especially strong demand, with approximately 40 per cent of sales moving in multiple offers so far this year. Young professionals, entrepreneurs, and senior executives—many from the Greater Toronto Area— are behind the push for product in the top end.

Tyandaga, Millcroft and the Lakeshore have been most popular with purchasers in Burlington. Activity in older, established neighbourhoods has been particularly brisk this year, with large lot sizes and homes with “good bones” a major draw. Purchasers have been more than willing to undertake renovations, given the potential return on investment down the road. This is particularly evident in Carlisle, while in Ancaster, older homes on estate lots—priced from $300,000 to $500,000—are demolished to make way for custom builds. At present, the upper-end represents close to three per cent of total residential activity in the Hamilton-Burlington area. The most expensive home sold so far this year—at $2.8 million—was a new build in the Bluffs area of Burlington, while the highest priced sale in Hamilton moved for $1.405 million.

The vast majority of sales were single-detached homes. Only two condominiums moved in the first three months of the year. However, the limited supply of condominium product available has had an impact on demand, with many empty nesters and retirees getting creative when it comes to realizing ownership. In some high-rise buildings, for example, purchasers have been buying up adjacent units and bringing down walls to achieve their goals and objectives. The highest priced condominium sale in the first quarter occured in Burlington at $870,000, while the priciest unit in Hamilton moved for $812,000 in the Creekside development of Dundas.

Most of the sales in the top end of the market occur under the $1 million price point, but higher priced product is available in the area. The most expensive property currently listed for sale in Burlington is a waterfront estate priced at $6.85 million. The highest priced listing in Hamilton is located on “the brow.” The 10,000 sq. ft. home, situated on an acre, is priced at $3.99 million. Given the region’s strong economic fundamentals and attractive price point for residential real estate, solid demand is expected to continue at the top end of the market.

[thistleclub]

From RAHB's April 2013 market report:

"There were 2,202 properties listed in April, a 6.5 per cent increase over April of last year. All property sales numbered 1,521, representing a 5.5 per cent increase over the same month last year. The average sale price of $382,682 was an increase of 1.8 per cent from the previous April. Seasonally adjusted sales of residential properties were 4.5 per cent lower than the same month last year, with the average sale price up 2.4 per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 2.2 per cent lower than the same month last year.Actual overall residential sales were 5.1 per cent higher than the previous year at the same time. Residential freehold sales were five per cent higher than last year while the condominium market saw an increase in sales of 5.6 per cent. The average sale price of freehold properties showed an increase of 1.9 per cent over the same month last year; the condominium market, however, saw a decrease of 8.6 per cent when compared to the same period last year."

Average Sale Price ($), April 2013

Flamborough $512,328
Burlington $482,301
Ancaster $462,006
Waterdown $436,334
Dundas $376,985
Grimsby $363,806
Glanbrook $339,514
Stoney Creek $335,514
Hamilton West $317,263
Hamilton Mountain $278,031
Caledonia $266,133
Dunnville $224,750
Hamilton East $187,741
Hamilton Centre $173,069

Crunching RAHB's year-over-year sales numbers gives us:

Average Sale Price Increase ($), April 2013 vs April 2012

Flamborough $74,305
Waterdown $57,516
Hamilton West $52,099
Glanbrook $33,141
Dundas $27,388
Ancaster $24,823
Grimsby $23,827
Burlington $22,315
Dunnville $16,450
Hamilton Mountain $7,506
Stoney Creek $4,614
Hamilton Centre $3,871
Caledonia -$3,211
Hamilton East -$12,965

Average Sale Price Increase (%), April 2013 vs April 2012

Hamilton West 19.64%
Flamborough 16.96%
Waterdown 15.18%
Glanbrook 10.82%
Dunnville 7.90%
Dundas 7.83%
Grimsby 7.08%
Ancaster 5.68%
Burlington 4.85%
Hamilton Mountain 2.77%
Hamilton Centre 2.29%
Stoney Creek 1.39%
Caledonia -1.19%
Hamilton East -6.46%

[pEte fiSt iN Ur fAce]

I have a home in Hamilton Centre and its theoretical value has increased approximately 20% over the past 7+ years. Factoring in home improvements, property taxes, mortgage interest, etc., I'm still doing ok. I didn't expect to make any money on the house so I'm quite pleased. I should be ok even after the proverbial bubble bursts.

[Jon Dalton]

I have a house in central Hamilton and am paying less than when I rented including taxes and insurance, and do my own work, so I have nothing to complain about either. That, and my neighbours are awesome (my previous one was a huge d*ck)

Any increase in property values is a bonus, but I don't even expect it. It's just so great to be able to live here.

[drpgq]

Interesting that the highest percentage is Hamilton West and the lowest Hamilton East. Anyone know the borders between West, East and Centre?

Originally Posted by thistleclub

From RAHB's April 2013 market report:

"There were 2,202 properties listed in April, a 6.5 per cent increase over April of last year. All property sales numbered 1,521, representing a 5.5 per cent increase over the same month last year. The average sale price of $382,682 was an increase of 1.8 per cent from the previous April. Seasonally adjusted sales of residential properties were 4.5 per cent lower than the same month last year, with the average sale price up 2.4 per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 2.2 per cent lower than the same month last year.Actual overall residential sales were 5.1 per cent higher than the previous year at the same time. Residential freehold sales were five per cent higher than last year while the condominium market saw an increase in sales of 5.6 per cent. The average sale price of freehold properties showed an increase of 1.9 per cent over the same month last year; the condominium market, however, saw a decrease of 8.6 per cent when compared to the same period last year."

Average Sale Price ($), April 2013

Flamborough $512,328
Burlington $482,301
Ancaster $462,006
Waterdown $436,334
Dundas $376,985
Grimsby $363,806
Glanbrook $339,514
Stoney Creek $335,514
Hamilton West $317,263
Hamilton Mountain $278,031
Caledonia $266,133
Dunnville $224,750
Hamilton East $187,741
Hamilton Centre $173,069

Crunching RAHB's year-over-year sales numbers gives us:

Average Sale Price Increase ($), April 2013 vs April 2012

Flamborough $74,305
Waterdown $57,516
Hamilton West $52,099
Glanbrook $33,141
Dundas $27,388
Ancaster $24,823
Grimsby $23,827
Burlington $22,315
Dunnville $16,450
Hamilton Mountain $7,506
Stoney Creek $4,614
Hamilton Centre $3,871
Caledonia -$3,211
Hamilton East -$12,965

Average Sale Price Increase (%), April 2013 vs April 2012

Hamilton West 19.64%
Flamborough 16.96%
Waterdown 15.18%
Glanbrook 10.82%
Dunnville 7.90%
Dundas 7.83%
Grimsby 7.08%
Ancaster 5.68%
Burlington 4.85%
Hamilton Mountain 2.77%
Hamilton Centre 2.29%
Stoney Creek 1.39%
Caledonia -1.19%
Hamilton East -6.46%

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by drpgq

Anyone know the borders between West, East and Centre?

My best guess. Take the movements with a grain of salt, though.