Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad
It would still be the "United Kingdom" (for now) - It would just be the United Kingdom of England, Northern Ireland and Wales.
Although if Scotland decamps, I sort of fear it would be the end for the UK. Wales is even more nationalist in some ways than Scotland. The unionists in Northern Ireland are mostly Scottish immigrants. If Scotland leaves, how loyal would Ulster be to Westminster. I think Northern Ireland would pack it in too.
It's the same as would happen to Canada if (when) Quebec seperates. Newfoundland would likely leave fairly soon thereafter, and the Maritimes might do the same with no land bridge to the rest of the country. I could easily see the western provinces forming their own union too.
The UK could end up as four seperate countries. Canada could end up as five or six........
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I think, in the case of Wales and Northern Ireland, a referendum is less likely to win because the case for
not being "Better Together" is much weaker for them, regardless of nationalism.
For the impact on Canada... despite my own desires, I think we'd be more pragmatic. If Ontario continues on under the assumption everyone else is staying and doesn't walk away itself, I think the re-organization of the country could prove very attractive to all sides. More devolution to the provinces, perhaps more regional rule over certain issues (for example, even if it was based in Halifax, some regional body responsible for the Atlantic fishery would be a benefit for us - it makes no sense having that governed from Ottawa).
I think a lot of people would want to be quick to run and take advantage of the collapse to get out while the going's good - but if Ontario is willing, the re-organization could prove irresistible to a majority of citizens who'd rather the devil they know.
Of course, status quo without Quebec wouldn't last long at all. The regional divides would be insane and Canada would be, largely, a right-wing country. That might not send New Brunswick screaming, but it would certainly raise alarm here.