The Metro Vancouver Real Estate Thread

[GlassCity]

Wonder if there will be any backlash to the tax if more property values start falling. I think most people agree in theory that real estate prices should be more in control, but I can imagine a lot of people will be unhappy when their houses start gradually diminishing in price.

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Wonder if there will be any backlash to the tax if more property values start falling. I think most people agree in theory that real estate prices should be more in control, but I can imagine a lot of people will be unhappy when their houses start gradually diminishing in price.

The writing has been on the wall for years, I have trouble feeling much sympathy as clearly ignorance is not bliss.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

The writing has been on the wall for years, I have trouble feeling much sympathy as clearly ignorance is not bliss.

No sympathy, just curiosity. There just generally seems to be broad support of the government actively cooling the housing market. I just wonder if that support will still be there when property owners see how that affects themselves. Ultimately a good thing for the city though.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Wonder if there will be any backlash to the tax if more property values start falling. I think most people agree in theory that real estate prices should be more in control, but I can imagine a lot of people will be unhappy when their houses start gradually diminishing in price.

Honestly, if ya own a house... ya wanna get the highest price. Just human nature.

OTOH, I know many folk (owners, residential builders, etc.) that have profited from the "peak" and they also have second thoughts on the market. They were all concerned about their kids ability to purchase same.

IMHO, from 2002 until the 2008 (?) financial crisis, BC housing prices increased wayyyy too fast. After same, they continued to increase. Too high from an economic/public policy perspective.

And then over the past year, another 30% increase. Becomes economically/politically dangerous at that level IMHO.

BC still has a very vibrant economy. Largest net inter-provincial population gains in Canada. Right there... provides a continuing market for housing/real estate developments.

We kinda just need a bit of a "soft-landing" from these stratospheric prices. My 2 cents.

[red-paladin]

I seriously doubt there will be any substantial or prolonged drop in prices across the board.
More like a plateauing with small declines at some times in some areas.

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by red-paladin

I seriously doubt there will be any substantial or prolonged drop in prices across the board.
More like a plateauing with small declines at some times in some areas.

At that is far superior to the continuous sky rocketing increases we were seeing.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

At that is far superior to the continuous sky rocketing increases we were seeing.

Confucius say "Ô dat for sure!"

[s211]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Just on my Twitter feed from a realtor:

Only two days on market... motivated vendor, perhaps?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Wonder if there will be any backlash to the tax if more property values start falling. I think most people agree in theory that real estate prices should be more in control, but I can imagine a lot of people will be unhappy when their houses start gradually diminishing in price.

The actual number affected is small. Boomers and older who were lucky enough to cash out of the West Side and Richmond and actually wanted to sell. Nobody's going to shed any tears for speculators.

[Spork]

Appraised at $690k on July 1 2015. 15% yoy increase is below what we've generally been seeing, although I'm not that familiar with this neck of the woods.

[whatnext]

The Globe writers do a great sum up of their investigation, of which it can truly be said lead to the regulations we're seeing come down the pike:

....My colleague Kathy Tomlinson has been on this story for, like, forever. Here’s what she says about this week’s climax:

“A year ago I had hardly anyone to talk to and I knew next to nothing about what I was looking into. I had just started at The Globe and had decided, with the blessing of my editors, to tackle what I now call The Thing, commonly known as Vancouver’s nutty real estate market. I had no idea all the lonely and tedious work – looking at hundreds of documents and pestering people who didn’t want to talk to me – would lead to significant changes included in the new measures. What a ride.

“No one had really dug into what might be causing rundown bungalows to sell in one day for several million dollars. There were many theories, especially about wealthy buyers from overseas bringing suitcases of cash and paying no taxes. Everyone kept complaining there wasn’t any data, but no one was compiling any either.

“So off I went, pulling at countless bits and pieces from land titles, MLS listings, corporate records and court documents. I met industry people in coffee shops, knocked on doors in the hottest neighborhoods, and spent whole days driving to a long list of addresses to see if the homes were empty or who lived there and why. Patterns started to click. I had some aha! moments.

“Now that we’ve revealed the shadow flipping, tax dodges, unethical practices and lax oversight, I’m left with one basic impression of what happened – and it’s pretty simple. People with a lot of money were tapped and exploited by people wanting to make a lot of money – and the system was utterly unprepared to do much of anything, to manage or regulate the fallout for everyone else who was affected.... (bold mine)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle32288385/

[whatnext]

The Sun has a summation of all the recent goings on in the real estate world. I wasn't aware they were thinking of amalgamating all the real estate boards. And it is ridiculous in this day and age the MLS is so opaque!

http://vancouversun.com/business/rea..._lsa=cd7f-b22c

[whatnext]

Looks like despite all the money AirBnB has been dropping on TV and radio ads, the city has started cracking down on their rentals:

The City of Vancouver has taken its battle with Airbnb to B.C. Supreme Court — petitioning to stop the nightly rental of a two-bedroom townhome in Fairview Slopes.

The lawsuit targets East West Investments, the company registered as the owner of the unit, as well as Heather Chang, a doctor listed as the company's director. Chang declined comment on the court filing.

The petition cites Vancouver's zoning bylaw as a rationale for prohibiting the rental of a home or apartment for a period of less than one month unless it's part of a hotel or bed and breakfast...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/britis...suit-1.3808555

[Sheba]

Vancouver builders say foreigner tax hits houses more than condos

A tax on foreign buyers aimed at cooling Canada's priciest property market has forced some developers and builders of detached Vancouver homes to hit the pause button, but has had much less effect on the city's condominium market, according to industry players.

Vancouver home sales in September were down by about a third from a year earlier after British Columbia implemented the new 15 percent tax in August. The tax was put in place in Vancouver because surging prices prompted worries about a bubble and speculation by foreigners, mostly from China.

In a city where million-dollar homes have been torn down to clear way for new ones that are even more expensive, some builders say the tax and other measures are shrinking order books and threatening jobs.

...

The trend was highlighted by data from the province's Homeowner Protection Office (HPO), where new homes must be registered before building permits are issued or construction starts. The Vancouver area accounts for three-quarters of the province's registrations.

Registrations of new detached homes fell 24 percent month-on-month in British Columbia in September, the biggest fall in 20 months. Year-on-year the fall was 1.5 percent, the only decline so far this year.

The data is a strong indicator of construction activity three to nine months out, said Robert de Wit, chief executive of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders' Association.

CONDO BUILDING PROVES RESILIENT

Separately, the HPO data showed registered multi-unit homes rose by 17.6 percent month-on-month in September and by 27.1 percent year-on-year.

New condo projects continue to sell quickly in urban centers, and marketing firms have indicated that buyer registrations are high even for those that have not yet launched, said Michael Ferreira, managing principal at Urban Analytics, a condo market research firm.

"The challenges we have is still significant demand and very little supply," said Ferreira, blaming a shortage of development sites and long timelines for getting municipal approvals.

Condos are generally cheaper than houses in a market where the benchmark home price is C$931,900 ($711,000). But even some luxury properties have done well.

A 26-story, 119-luxury unit Vancouver project launched two weeks after the foreign buyer tax was announced set a record of C$1,800 for average price per square foot, said Daryl Simpson, senior vice president at developer Bosa Properties.

"We are still very confident in this marketplace. We have a number of plans that will be developed over the coming years," Simpson said.

[Vin]

The age of the high-rise affordable condos have come.....

But Vancouver City policies are still hampering it.

From the above article:

"The challenges we have is still significant demand and very little supply," said Ferreira, blaming a shortage of development sites and long timelines for getting municipal approvals.

Condos are generally cheaper than houses in a market where the benchmark home price is C$931,900 ($711,000). But even some luxury properties have done well

[Stingray2004]

I just stumbled upon this re-election leaflet entitled "The Housing Crisis" from former Van City councillor Harry Rankin. From the year 1966 - 50 years ago! And man, déjà vu set in. Seems that the more things change... the more things remain the same...

[BobLoblawsLawBlog]

Didn't housing prices drop in the 70's and 80's?

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

I just stumbled upon this re-election leaflet entitled "The Housing Crisis" from former Van City councillor Harry Rankin. From the year 1966 - 50 years ago! And man, déjà vu set in. Seems that the more things change... the more things remain the same...

Please make a copy of this and send it to all levels of government, some real evidence that we have been dragging our feet for way too long. Hell, send it to the newspapers so they can have at it too.

[SpongeG]

does anyone watch this guy?

• Video Link

[VanK]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

does anyone watch this guy?

• Video Link

Nope. Never heard of this guy and not sure what his angle. If he is trying to make a case for over supply of single family homes & a crashing market then he isn't doing a very good job. He doesn't mention exactly where he is standing or talking about. ( I did notice he is on Renfrew). He also says multiple times that its all different realtors - which is not the case.

I did my own homework to find out that those homes are a set of homes along Renfrew & its essentially 2 residential realtors from TRG & Amex (mostly the same guy from Amex) that have listed homes as part of a "Land Assembly". Neither of the 2 realtors mention what can be built nor do they make any representation of such. I also noticed that the same realtor has gone and listed at 3 separate sets of an assembly of homes along Renfrew - all with the same "Land Assembly" description. Someone correct me if I am mistaken but I do not know of any COV area plan that has been adopted or in the works for the Renfrew corridor. My guess is that the realtors are just out to market these homes with no representation of development potential. I hope any suitors does their homework and/or has patient money.