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Originally Posted by jawagord
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Taking a look at the vote by polling station numbers, it was clear that in Ft Mac-Conklin, there was a rural Special Interest Group trying to get the NDP candidate in during the byelection. Take a look at Conklin where 98 out of 120 electors (the voter turnout was 90%) voted NDP. What the UCP was accomplished was GOTV in Ft Mac during the summer vacation season. The UCP still would have won, but the vote would be closer to 45-50%.
In Sylvan Lake area, there was no serious challenge, the 85% was still on the high side of potential outcomes. Again this means the UCP did a great GOTV strategy.
Get out the vote (GOTV) is tough in any byelection. Super tough in the summer, and near impossible if your the favoured to win by a long shot. My tea leaf reading, the UCP 53 points is super commitment and probably has 45 point completely locked up.
I think the provincial NDP knows they have no hope and a bunch of people are coming up with plan B for their careers. Several 1 term MLAs have announced retirement, while half the caucus has put even registered as a canididate. Before the person can declare they are running , raise money, etc. they must send in the nomination candidate disclosure with Elections ALberta. Therefore the 50% NDP MLAs are probably activating plan B. The UCP by comparison only has 1 MLA that has not declared reelection or retirement.
So who are the NDP MLA I think will not seek re-election: Sandra Jansen, Robyn Luff, Anam Kazim, Craig Coolahan, Jessica Littelwod, Ricardo Miranda, Nicole Goehring. This list used to be longer, but a few more NDP MLAs have announced they will not run.
In reading Sandra Jansen’s twitterfest over Stephen Harper door knocking for her outster; not once did she mention that she was going to face the voters in 2019. Jessica Littlewood (the 80,000 KM for official business MLA) didn’t start request mileage reimbursement until after Jason KEnny completed the UCP merger. There are numerous other examples where the Undeclared NDP MLAs are quietly signalling they have no hope of winning.