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  #261  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2018, 5:23 PM
canadient_ canadient_ is offline
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The UCP government is bound to be unpopular as it will make the tough spending decisions that the NDP deferred. The UCP will have to at least freeze wages and hiring.
The NDP have had a hiring and wage freeze since they came into office... this notion that they're catastrophically overspending or favouring public servants is just not in line with the facts.

Alberta finance minister announces two-year salary freeze for managers and non-union employees in public service: https://calgaryherald.com/news/polit...-salary-freeze
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  #262  
Old Posted Jul 16, 2018, 6:57 PM
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We’ll take our fat cat provincial government pension and relocate to BC at the first opportunity
Part of Alberta's problem are the number of people there just to bleed it for all they can and then move elsewhere.
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  #263  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2018, 9:33 PM
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Does Derek Fildebrandt actually believe he has a chance of getting re-elected?
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  #264  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2018, 3:26 AM
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Labor stats are somewhat imprecise, but the trends likely represent provincial and municipal headcount
-small percentage of educational services would be private sector
-small percentage of public administration category would be federal
-small percentage of healthcare and social services would be private

Jun-2015 (https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/b754...ic-package.pdf)
-educational services: 138.4
-healthcare and social assistance: 266.6
-public admin: 92.1
-total: 497.1

Jun-2018 (https://work.alberta.ca/documents/la...ic-package.pdf)
-educational services: 160.8
-healthcare and social assistance: 273.9
-public admin: 108.7
-total: 543.4

Assuming that 75% of the original 497.1k was on provincial or municipal payroll,a 2% per year attrit rate would have reduced headcount by about 30k over three years. Assuming that 75% of the 45k growth was on provincial or municipal payroll, translates into total growth of 65k. So the deficit could have been $5-6B lower, which would have put the budget in striking range of balance.

Last edited by Doug; Jul 23, 2018 at 4:28 AM.
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  #265  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2018, 3:45 AM
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Part of Alberta's problem are the number of people there just to bleed it for all they can and then move elsewhere.
Right. So the Province would be better off paying more in place of offering pensions as more of the more of the money would be spent in provincie.
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  #266  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2018, 3:46 AM
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Originally Posted by canadient_ View Post
The NDP have had a hiring and wage freeze since they came into office... this notion that they're catastrophically overspending or favouring public servants is just not in line with the facts.

Alberta finance minister announces two-year salary freeze for managers and non-union employees in public service: https://calgaryherald.com/news/polit...-salary-freeze
More of less immaterial given that unionized (i.e. most provincial and municipal employees) positions were not frozen.
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  #267  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2018, 4:12 AM
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And who was it that signed off on those union agreements in the first place?
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  #268  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2018, 4:18 AM
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And who was it that signed off on those union agreements in the first place?
The PC's acted as pseudo-NDP from about 2006 forward by agreeing to outrageous wage settlements and out of control hiring (anything more than about 2% annual headcount growth or about 3% wage increase is out of control given that nominal GDP is unlikely to rise more than about 4-5% over the long term). That is a sunk cost can only correct going forward. Stelmach and Redford owe much of their leadership wins to support from the Alberta Teachers Association. The NDP has done an OK job at not increasing wages with renewed contracts and the Province will likely need to continue the freezes for another decade. The NDP has failed miserably at reducing headcount as unionized contracts do not require replacing workers who attrit.

As a point of comparison, I worked as a medical lab tech in Edmonton and then Calgary from 1991 to 1997. Until 1993, wages had been frozen since 1982 and dropped 5% in 1993. By 1997, wages were still higher than BC or ON which demonstrates how out of control the late Lougheed years were. I also work for Alberta Health as an administrator from 1994 to 1996 and the wage profile was more or less the same: nominal wage rates in 1994 were lower than 1982 but still the highest in Canada.

Last edited by Doug; Jul 23, 2018 at 4:48 AM.
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  #269  
Old Posted Jul 28, 2018, 7:26 PM
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Not even a poor showing by Rachel’s canonfodder candidates as UCP wins taking 70 and 80 percent of the vote.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/polit...-to-government
Taking a look at the vote by polling station numbers, it was clear that in Ft Mac-Conklin, there was a rural Special Interest Group trying to get the NDP candidate in during the byelection. Take a look at Conklin where 98 out of 120 electors (the voter turnout was 90%) voted NDP. What the UCP was accomplished was GOTV in Ft Mac during the summer vacation season. The UCP still would have won, but the vote would be closer to 45-50%.

In Sylvan Lake area, there was no serious challenge, the 85% was still on the high side of potential outcomes. Again this means the UCP did a great GOTV strategy.

Get out the vote (GOTV) is tough in any byelection. Super tough in the summer, and near impossible if your the favoured to win by a long shot. My tea leaf reading, the UCP 53 points is super commitment and probably has 45 point completely locked up.

I think the provincial NDP knows they have no hope and a bunch of people are coming up with plan B for their careers. Several 1 term MLAs have announced retirement, while half the caucus has put even registered as a canididate. Before the person can declare they are running , raise money, etc. they must send in the nomination candidate disclosure with Elections ALberta. Therefore the 50% NDP MLAs are probably activating plan B. The UCP by comparison only has 1 MLA that has not declared reelection or retirement.

So who are the NDP MLA I think will not seek re-election: Sandra Jansen, Robyn Luff, Anam Kazim, Craig Coolahan, Jessica Littelwod, Ricardo Miranda, Nicole Goehring. This list used to be longer, but a few more NDP MLAs have announced they will not run.

In reading Sandra Jansen’s twitterfest over Stephen Harper door knocking for her outster; not once did she mention that she was going to face the voters in 2019. Jessica Littlewood (the 80,000 KM for official business MLA) didn’t start request mileage reimbursement until after Jason KEnny completed the UCP merger. There are numerous other examples where the Undeclared NDP MLAs are quietly signalling they have no hope of winning.
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  #270  
Old Posted Aug 6, 2018, 4:47 AM
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Ha! A lot of wishful thinking...
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  #271  
Old Posted Aug 8, 2018, 5:00 PM
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Ha! A lot of wishful thinking...
Do you honestly think the NDP will win more than a handful of seats outside Edmonton proper? 2015 was a perfect storm of vote splitting, a tired and arrogant PC party, the irrationality of protest votes and an electorate that thought oil and gas would provide endless government revenue. The NDP has been a complete disaster.
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  #272  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2018, 4:23 PM
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Part of Alberta's problem are the number of people there just to bleed it for all they can and then move elsewhere.
Well I never intended to stay here in the first place, so.. yes, I guess that’s exactly what we’re going to do. Honestly why the hell would we stay in this town otherwise ?
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  #273  
Old Posted Sep 7, 2018, 1:59 AM
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Great piece by Duane Bratt:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...nney-1.4809798

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It may be too early to book the moving vans — there are still roughly eight months before the next Alberta election — but the NDP should start looking for cardboard boxes.

Sure, if a week is a long time in politics, then eight months is an eternity. But, with the next provincial election looming on the horizon, the Federal Court of Appeal did not just quash the extension project for the Trans Mountain Pipeline last week, it effectively ended Rachel Notley's NDP government's re-election efforts.

Get ready for Premier Jason Kenney.
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  #274  
Old Posted Sep 7, 2018, 3:23 PM
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I think the writer is on point, sadly.
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  #275  
Old Posted Sep 7, 2018, 3:45 PM
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I for one, do not welcome our future religious lunatic overlord.
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  #276  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2018, 1:31 AM
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I for one, do not welcome our future religious lunatic overlord.
Social values are a distraction. Kenney will be more likely to take the steps to turnaround the deterioration of the business climate: regulatory relief a d T at East some progress towards reducing the massive over funding of health and education.
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  #277  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2018, 2:03 AM
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Social values are a distraction. Kenney will be more likely to take the steps to turnaround the deterioration of the business climate: regulatory relief a d T at East some progress towards reducing the massive over funding of health and education.
Social issues do matter, but it's impossible to respect a man who bases his policy (or lack of policy) on an imaginary friend and appears to have not done a day of productive work in his life. Furthermore, despite his rhetoric, his aggressive, immature, uncooperative stance on all issues will do nothing to allow us to get future infrastructure built and will only make our problems worse.
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  #278  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2018, 2:18 AM
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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
Social issues do matter, but it's impossible to respect a man who bases his policy (or lack of policy) on an imaginary friend and appears to have not done a day of productive work in his life. Furthermore, despite his rhetoric, his aggressive, immature, uncooperative stance on all issues will do nothing to allow us to get future infrastructure built and will only make our problems worse.
His number one priority is to improve the business climate which will involve downsizing and decompensating the public sector. The rest is noise. Kenney's success can only be measured in how much budget he cuts.

Government can't really influence social matters anymore, so debating such issues is a a waste of time.
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  #279  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2018, 4:43 PM
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I will never vote for someone like Jason Kenney, don't underestimate the amount of support the NDP has.
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  #280  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2018, 6:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Doug View Post
His number one priority is to improve the business climate which will involve downsizing and decompensating the public sector. The rest is noise. Kenney's success can only be measured in how much budget he cuts.

Government can't really influence social matters anymore, so debating such issues is a a waste of time.
So... back to the corruption, nepotism, partisanship, unaccountability of the good ol’ days huh. That’ll be fine.
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