The Manitoba Provincial Politics Discussion

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by rrskylar

I think the head line should have read: Tories increasing in popularity despite Hugh McFadyen as leader.

Agreed. However, since we don't have a Prairie Crocus Alliance or something of the like, he'll get my vote, but only grudgingly.

[jmt18325]

I agree with rrskylar. I actually think it's time for change (I've been disappointed with the NDP lately...I just don't like McFadyen.

[DowntownWpg]

PC Manitoba still comes across as a bunch of angry farmers who gripe about "Perimeter-itis," and hypocritically bitch about high government spending one day and then the next day demand every highway be twinned, every rural hospital expanded, and that substantial compensation is needed every summer due to poor crop conditions and flooding. It is a strategy that speaks to their base, but won't really resonate in the swing ridings where they need the breakthroughs. Also, they continue to use Bipole III as their main issue in QP, etc, and while they make a good point on this matter IMO, I think that they cannot really get any more mileage out of that pony. If they're savvy, they'll go back to framing a narrative around their bread and butter (tax cuts and crime - crime being the issue that gains them support in the city more than any other topic). They have both the stats and the stories to underline their point re: crime.

With the exception of a couple of constituencies, Manitoba politics is still very much Winnipeg vs. rural. I would not predict the PCs would win unless they are polling a few points above the NDP within Winnipeg and sustain that lead in the city for some time.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals win zero seats in the next election with Lamoureux's seat going to the NDP (he's leaving to run federally), and Gerrard's going to the PCs.

Hopefully the polling companies put out more surveys as the election nears, it is going to be an interesting one to watch. I have a better feeling about the accuracy of WFP/Probe Research polls, and Angus/Vision Critical uses some odd recruitment strategies for their panel and are known federally to show a higher Conservative support than the rest of the pollsters who also do regular vote intention tracking surveys. This was also a smaller sample (800) than ideal for province-wide/a bigger margin of error (+/- 3.5%).

Still lots of time for Prince Hugh to put his foot in his mouth, as well as the average voter to get completely bored of Selinger and the lackluster public policies of the NDP. But what will happen first, or be more significant? That will probably have a lot to do in affecting the outcome IMO. It certainly isn't going to be based on charisma of the leaders, ha ha, they're all very yawn-inspiring.

[thurmas]

it's going to be a close election either way. The pc's don't have to win winnipeg outright they just need to regain their support in southern winnipeg which used to always be theirs under filmon. The pc's have i beleive 15 of their 19 mla's outside winnipeg. They seem to be polling better in rural manitoba since doer left so they might pickup 2 or 3 seats there. Looking at winnipeg the tories had about 30% in the last election in winnipeg with all the recent polls having them up between 6 to 11 % in winnipeg maybe half a dozen winnipeg seats could turn tory blue. It will be a close one but i hope the pc's win.

[Only The Lonely..]

NDP in unions' pockets

By: Staff Writer | Winnipeg Free Press - editorial

19/06/2010 1:00 AM

The recent contract settlement with the 11,000 publicly paid nurses reveals the sleight of hand, deficit-budgeting scheme that makes a lie of the Selinger government's tough talk on civil servant salaries. After repeated warnings that publicly paid employees would have to agree to a two-year wage freeze "or else," the government this year will give nurses a two per cent, lump-sum payment.

How can a government that will rack up more than $2 billion in deficits in five years reconcile that with a promise to spread the pain among public salaries for two years? Easy, says Finance Minister Rosann Wowchuk. She tucked money away under a different shell. That shell was last year's budget, where the finance minister conveniently stored $21.2 million for a lump-sum deal with nurses.

There were more goodies for the nurses, whose union -- conveniently, again, for the NDP governing party -- ran advertisements about the oh-so-happy state of public health care shortly before the 2007 election campaign. The Selinger government has agreed to help top up the nurses' pension fund, damaged by the recessionary stock market, and to begin contributing in 2014 to a new fund that will give cost-of-living raises to pensions as of 2018. Further, in the third year of the collective agreement, veteran nurses will get a top-up of two per cent and all nurses will see wages rise by four per cent. Manitoba nurses become among the best paid in Canada.

The deficit the province amassed in 2009/10 was blamed upon the global economic slump, which barely nicked Manitoba's finances, and "extraordinary" costs such as the expense of fighting H1N1. Premier Greg Selinger, who served as finance minister for much of 2009, never mentioned to the taxpayer that money was being secretly hived off for a yet-to-be negotiated contract with the powerful union.

How much more cash lies around in secreted kitties? The public has a right to feel hoodwinked and betrayed by the government's claim to careful management of the province's finances in these "unavoidable" deficit-funding years. The tough talk of forcing publicly paid employees -- up next: 13,500 civil servants -- into wage freezes or job reductions or forced unpaid days off, for the next two years is hollow and fraudulent, a sleight of hand by a government indebted to unions for its tenure in office.

Republished from the Winnipeg Free Press print edition June 19, 2010 A16

[thurmas]

well there was a new poll in yesterday's free press which had a virtual tie between the pc's and ndp 41 ndp 40 pc 13 lib. It was done by probe research which tends to have polling that favours the ndp while last week angus reid did a poll which had the pc's leading 48-36 and angus reid polls seem to always favour the pc's. so the real result is probably somewhere in between maybe around pc 44 ndp 39. This is going to be one close election.

[thurmas]

Another new poll out by angus reid today pc's 46 ndp 37 lib 13 in winnipeg ndp 41 pcs 39 with these types of numbers the pc's will win around 31 seats the ndp 24 and the liberals 2. The ndp under Selinger is making many gaffes with dumb attack ads, reckless spending and a tired govt. after 11 years.

[Riverman]

Good blog posts about those attack ad lies here and here.

[khabibulin]

In my opinion, the NDP will lose this election over one issue, Bipole III. The waste of taxpayers money for the cost of their proposal will be their undoing. Running the power line down the east side of Lake Winnipeg is extremly doable and will cost so much less than the NDP proposal.

[Bdog]

Originally Posted by khabibulin

In my opinion, the NDP will lose this election over one issue, Bipole III. The waste of taxpayers money for the cost of their proposal will be their undoing. Running the power line down the east side of Lake Winnipeg is extremly doable and will cost so much less than the NDP proposal.

I don't know much about the issue, but aren't there concerns over costly lawsuits and delays with reserves on the east side? If that is the case, down the road, it might end up being more costly...

Anyone with more information on the pro's and con's of both proposals?

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Bdog

I don't know much about the issue, but aren't there concerns over costly lawsuits and delays with reserves on the east side? If that is the case, down the road, it might end up being more costly...

Anyone with more information on the pro's and con's of both proposals?

As I understand it, they are already building a road up the east side of Lake Winnipeg. So you put the power line alongside the road and voila.

[thurmas]

The ndp proposal costs $300 million more it's just so stupid.That could build almost 2 new bomber stadiums or a new rapid transit line or a convention centre expansion.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

As I understand it, they are already building a road up the east side of Lake Winnipeg. So you put the power line alongside the road and voila.

No, it isn't that easy. If they build the line through traditional native territory that is claimed by one reserve or another, they'll have to profit share. It will cost just as much if not more. The west side route passes through very little in the way of claimed traditional territory.

[vid]

Originally Posted by Bdog

I don't know much about the issue, but aren't there concerns over costly lawsuits and delays with reserves on the east side? If that is the case, down the road, it might end up being more costly...

Reserves in Northern Ontario are trying to force the government to build a hydro corridor near them, so that they don't have to rely on diesel. The government is reluctant. I think it is supposed to connect to the new corridor you're building too.

I can't think of a reason a reserve would oppose it, unless it is already on the grid.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by vid

I can't think of a reason a reserve would oppose it, unless it is already on the grid.

It's not about their opposition, it's about them wanting money.

[Bdog]

I've also heard a vague argument about not being able to sell power to the States if it went on the East side, due to potential lawsuits with reserves... Does anyone know anything about that?

[rrskylar]

If the NDP are balking at running the line down the east because some US environmental fringe group is opposed to it they truly are dumb shits.

Just about every engineer at Hydro knows the line should be on the east side, the line will be half a billion cheaper and more direct on the east side, the majority of First Nation reserves want the east side route.

[Riverman]

The option of running the line under the lake exists too. Expensive, but efficient and direct (like the east side route) and Sellinger and Doer still get their names on the UNESCO plaque. Everybody wins - we get an efficient hydro line built and we get to pay $100M for a plaque for our heroes.

Excellent!

Seriously, I don't understand why Winnipeg isn't getting wound up about this. Rural Manitoba is very upset and very opposed - this was the #1 topic at the AMM meeting last month.

[rypinion]

Originally Posted by Riverman

The option of running the line under the lake exists too. Expensive, but efficient and direct (like the east side route) and Sellinger and Doer still get their names on the UNESCO plaque. Everybody wins - we get an efficient hydro line built and we get to pay $100M for a plaque for our heroes.

Excellent!

Seriously, I don't understand why Winnipeg isn't getting wound up about this. Rural Manitoba is very upset and very opposed - this was the #1 topic at the AMM meeting last month.

Through Lake Winnipeg seems like the best choice to me. Expensive, but efficient (less power loss than the west) and it must be the most secure option.

[khabibulin]

There is a proposal for a world heritage site designation for a defined area of the boreal forest that covers part of eastern manitoba and part of northwest ontario. The NDP is saying that the powerline would cause UNESO to turn down the nomination when it comes up for decision in 3 or 4 years. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are many world heritage sites that have more development located inside their borders than this will ever have. For example, the the Rocky Mountain Parks in Alberta and BC have a world heritage site designation and there is the town of Banff in the middle of it!

To respond to the comment about having to profit share with the first nations, should we not use the money to improve the impoverished lives of those on those reserves. Or should we just throw the money away on a longer route that will be less efficient as more power bleeds out over the longer route.