Surrey Langley Skytrain - Expo Line Extension | Proposed

[xd_1771]

Breaking

The capital cost of Surrey's LRT proposal has increased by $500 million:





SOURCE: http://www.surrey.ca/bylawsandcounci..._2016-R050.pdf

Plus, the original $2.1b LRT1 estimate in the Surrey Rapid Transit Study included the BRT portion from Newton to White Rock. This estimate doesn't - so the actual increase may very well be around $700 million.

[Rico]

Originally Posted by xd_1771

Breaking

The capital cost of Surrey's LRT proposal has increased by $500 million:





SOURCE: http://www.surrey.ca/bylawsandcounci..._2016-R050.pdf

Plus, the original $2.1b LRT1 estimate in the Surrey Rapid Transit Study included the BRT portion from Newton to White Rock. This estimate doesn't - so the actual increase may very well be around $700 million.

To be fair all of the estimates were just that, estimates. As engineering progresses cost estimates get refined. The key is what those revised cost estimates do to the business case. And I have not seen any Surrey business casees that compare options directly like the translink study does. Its almost like they know what the answer would be....

[AForce]

If this thing gets built i bet it will get pretty close to 3Billion by the time its all said and done.

[logan5]

What a colossal waste this would be. Translink's study of rapid transit in Surrey shows that ror the same price as LRT you could have 3 x the amount of BRT routes, bringing rapid transit to 3 x as many Surrey residents. All those old railway lines, hydroways, and parkways run smack dab in the middle of residential neighbourhoods, bringing far more people within walking distance of rapid transit.

There would be no issue about capacity on a main trunk line like KGB because, unlike LRT vehicles, BRT vehicles can pass each other, eliminating the issue of dwell times.

[logan5]

Here's a map of what Surrey could get if they built transit-ways along hydro corridors and old railway corridors, in addition to BRT routes along KGB, Fraser Hwy, and 104th.

Because there would be no street widening, costs would be kept low. This 52 km's of BRT would still likely be less than 2/3rds the cost of the 27 km's of LRT proposed for Surrey. There are far more routing possibilities, and far more people within walking distance of a rapid transit line.

The Newton area would be especially well served, with the option of fast connections to both Scott Road and Surrey Central Skytrain stations.


[IMG][/IMG]

[Kisai]

Originally Posted by Rico

To be fair all of the estimates were just that, estimates. As engineering progresses cost estimates get refined. The key is what those revised cost estimates do to the business case. And I have not seen any Surrey business casees that compare options directly like the translink study does. Its almost like they know what the answer would be....

And that answer is "The Surrey Light Rail project is a VERY BAD business case" The RRT+BRT or just BRT alone are more sensible.

Like this is the story we've been saying all along, that the LRT is going to be more expensive than the RRT+LRT option, and going forward with this project as LRT is little more than a Vanity project.

I think Daryl got more signatures on the Skytrain For Surrey page in the last two months than the previous year.

[scryer]

Originally Posted by logan5

http://i1182.photobucket.com/albums/...g?t=1457128176

Just want to say that a skytrain extension down Fraser Highway and connecting to Langley would service all parts of Surrey more efficiently. The LRT system that's being proposed right now really only services people living in the Central Surrey location. Surrey is a large city, geographically speaking, and I would like to see a rapid transit project that tries to connect people from all parts of Surrey.

[Metro-One]

The only bright side to our current funding dead lock for Transit is this amazingly horrible plan wont be built.

Said it once and will say it again, Expo extension to Langley and the other routes BRT.

[Waders]

How much would it cost to extend Skytrain in Surrey? Is LRT option now more expensive than Skytrain option?
I bet some related cost are not included in the new estimate.
By the time the project reach the bidding RFP phase, the LRT will cost close to $3 billion.
Also the LRT operating cost is higher as driver is required.

[logan5]

Is Photobucket crap, or did some LRT zealot hack my account and delete my brilliant idea?

[Kisai]

Originally Posted by Waders

How much would it cost to extend Skytrain in Surrey? Is LRT option now more expensive than Skytrain option?
I bet some related cost are not included in the new estimate.
By the time the project reach the bidding RFP phase, the LRT will cost close to $3 billion.
Also the LRT operating cost is higher as driver is required.

The nice thing about using the existing Skytrain cars (extending the Expo line) is that it adds zero costs that aren't already taken care of. It's just extending the guideway, building the stations and some computer upgrades.

The separate LRT adds a transfer for people who want to use the Skytrain or get to White Rock or Langley, which already penalizes them on top of the LRT that will operate at half the speed, and 1/6th the frequency of the Skytrain and have to contend with traffic. "Signal Priority" does not mean "accident free", and LRT's that are modeled after "Portland"'s incur hundreds of avoidable accidents per year. Compare that to the Skytrain with zero accidents, and only a few teething troubles in the beginning in nearly 30 years. The computer has never been at fault.

So wanting to switch to a less reliable, cheaper to build, dangerous at-grade option is ignorant if not spiteful to the region. LRT's are not cheaper to operate, and have very high driver churn due to driver injury or PTSD.

* For the purposes of defining "accident-free", suicides are not counted, only "avoidable" accidents that are the fault of the driver/signaling not reacting. If we were to include suicides, the stats tend to show the longer a system is, the more frequent suicides happen, regardless of station attendants, drivers. The only way to prevent suicides on a grade separated system is to have platform edge doors. LRT's would have to be completely enclosed to avoid suicides since they run at grade, and "ruin" the people-friendly street design. Suicides are never "avoided" they are just pushed to somewhere with less effort.

[Metro-One]

But its the hip urban trend right now!

And we all know following currently hot urban trends always ends well....

Seriously, in 30 years time we may look back at using at grade LRTs for transit backbones as foolishly as the 'demolish downtown cores for super freeways' craze of the 50s / 60s.

[MIPS]

Originally Posted by logan5

Is Photobucket crap, or did some LRT zealot hack my account and delete my brilliant idea?

I can't even check. Your album is private.

[/derail]

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by logan5

Is Photobucket crap, or did some LRT zealot hack my account and delete my brilliant idea?

It's still there in your original post I think, just not in the quote.

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by logan5

logan5, it's back! You included redundant [ img ] tags.

[GMasterAres]

Yay! Now we just need to convince Surrey City Hall.

It's been quite a few pages since I've said it so once again...

1. SkyTrain Surrey Central -> Langley down Fraser Highway
2. BRT to Newton/Guildford/South Surrey
3. LRT to Newton/Guildford/South Surrey only if the business case is made or it is needed which given Broadway will probably never happen

That's it that's all. That's what we need. SkyTrain down Fraser Highway is the best option as you can reconfigure a huge amount of bus routes in Surrey and even BRT down 152nd and hit a lot more areas of Surrey as has been pointed out a million times now.

It just helps MORE people in Surrey for the same (or I'd argue less) cost than at-grade LRT.

In conclusion... at-grade LRT is dumb. Super mega ultra-kill dumb.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

logan5, it's back! You included redundant [ img ] tags.

Yeah, I got it back somehow. I'm not too sure what I'm doing when it comes this imageshack stuff.

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by Kisai

The nice thing about using the existing Skytrain cars (extending the Expo line) is that it adds zero costs that aren't already taken care of. It's just extending the guideway, building the stations and some computer upgrades.

Building LRT actually adds costs.

Just think about it.

If the LRT is somewhat successful, and increases transit ridership, that means that a lot of people are going to get dumped at Skytrain for their transfer to New West and beyond. Then those new riders are going to need new Skytrain cars to keep up with demand (as it is already at capacity).

So not only do we need to buy new LRT trains for the LRT, we need to double down and buy new Skytrain trains for the Expo line.

So instead of extending the Expo line and buying cheap buses to shuttle passengers to it, we will need to buy expensive LRT vehicles and more Skytrain vehicles AND more buses (buses to shuttle people to the LRT that then shuttles people to Skytrain).

Translink should just ask for $400 million from the federal government to extend the Expo line as far as it can in Surrey with $400 million. If they stuck to just elevated guideway, I'm thinking they could get to at least 164th Street (a little over 6km of track and much of the roadway in the area has been built with space for a guideway on the North Shoulder). And the elevated guideway went up so fast on North Road, that I'm betting they could be done an extension in 2 years. LRT would be at least a 3 or 4 year project, at least.

Even gong just that far would make a huge difference. From the times I've been on the 502 around rush hour, most ridership happens today between King George and 160th anyway. The bus leaves 100% full and is down to under 1/4 ridership by then (as that is about a half hour ride in traffic today).

Even if it only went as far as 88Ave/156St it would make a huge impact on ridership. That stretch has got to be one of the most congested and slowest (from King George to 156 St) stretches of road in Surrey. It takes at least 30 minutes for a bus to do that stretch. If Skytrain just hopped over the worst part of the trip for every rider, bus ridership from Langley and Clayton would significantly increase. But because the surface level trip takes so long, noone wants to do it and bus ridership from there is shockingly low.

[Whalleyboy]

Originally Posted by jhausner

Yay! Now we just need to convince Surrey City Hall.

It's been quite a few pages since I've said it so once again...

1. SkyTrain Surrey Central -> Langley down Fraser Highway
2. BRT to Newton/Guildford/South Surrey
3. LRT to Newton/Guildford/South Surrey only if the business case is made or it is needed which given Broadway will probably never happen

That's it that's all. That's what we need. SkyTrain down Fraser Highway is the best option as you can reconfigure a huge amount of bus routes in Surrey and even BRT down 152nd and hit a lot more areas of Surrey as has been pointed out a million times now.

It just helps MORE people in Surrey for the same (or I'd argue less) cost than at-grade LRT.

In conclusion... at-grade LRT is dumb. Super mega ultra-kill dumb.

I disagree with that as there is more people in Newton then fleetwood and cloverdale. Sure Langley gets to be added in to fraser hwy but I think its a royal waste of money for skytrain its triple the length to go there. Newton does deserve it now.

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by Whalleyboy

I disagree with that as there is more people in Newton then fleetwood and cloverdale. Sure Langley gets to be added in to fraser hwy but I think its a royal waste of money for skytrain its triple the length to go there. Newton does deserve it now.

By about only 1000 people. By 2026 the combined populations of Fleetwood and Cloverdale will be greater. And Newton is the largest of the town centers area wise. That large population is spread out from Scott Road to 160 Street. And there are a lot of geographic barriers that prevent people from the edges of Newton to conveniently access King George.

Also, today, Langley Center has more employment than Surrey City Center. Even in 2041, Langley is expected to have more jobs than Surrey City Center, and outpace jobs in Newton Center by at least 4:1. A terminus in Langley could really anchor a reverse commute on Skytrain.

The distance from Newton Center to King George isn't that great, and King George is a rather fast moving street. Sending Skytrain to Langley saves so many more people so much more time.

According to the studies:

RRT1 (only build Skytrain to Langley) would save a total 9.1 MILLION passenger hours in 2041 (of just travel time) and collectively over 30 years total 258 Million passenger hours saved. The average travel time benefit per rider would be 14.8 minutes.

RRT3 (only Skytrain to Newton) would save a total of 3.6 Million passenger hours in 2041 and collectively over 30 years a grand total of 108 Million passenger hours would be saved. The average travel time benefit per rider would be 9.4 minutes.

Just think about that, 150 million more hours dumped back into the economy and people's personal lives. That's a lot of playing catch with the kids.

http://www.translink.ca/-/media/Docu...Evaluation.pdf
page 45-46