HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
     
     
  #1  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2017, 8:03 PM
jayden jayden is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: JERSEY
Posts: 1,488
How far will the Atlanta suburban sprawl spread?

So...

Anyone who is familiar with Atlanta knows that it is notorious for its suburban sprawl. Right now the metro area is comprised of some 18(?) counties. The CSA goes as far west as the Alabama state line, as far north as the basin of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains, as far East as Athens, and as far south as the extreme northern county outskirts of Macon.

Although development has become more focused within the city center over the last decade, census tracking shows that the Atlanta metro remains one of the Top 10 fastest-growing metros within the US, and with a majority of the population boom happening in the suburbs.

So my question is..how far can the Atlanta metro suburban sprawl spread?

Will it cross over the Alabama state line, or meet the South Carolina state line at some point? Will the metro end up consolidating Macon?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2017, 9:22 PM
James Bond Agent 007's Avatar
James Bond Agent 007 James Bond Agent 007 is offline
Posh
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
Posts: 21,128
It will someday encompass the whole state of Georgia!
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #3  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2017, 9:31 PM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
E pluribus unum
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Arizona
Posts: 31,262
By 2050, all of the Southeastern United States will be part of suburban Atlanta.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #4  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2017, 9:40 PM
memph memph is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,854
Hasn't a lot of the suburban growth shifted towards the more central suburban counties? Still suburban in form by any standard, but in closer proximity to downtown. Basically lots that have been leapfrogged over by exurban growth are now being filled in with tract housing? Which is now more likely multi-family or on smaller lots than in the past?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #5  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 11:08 AM
Crawford Crawford is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Brooklyn, NYC/Polanco, DF
Posts: 30,551
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
Hasn't a lot of the suburban growth shifted towards the more central suburban counties? Still suburban in form by any standard, but in closer proximity to downtown. Basically lots that have been leapfrogged over by exurban growth are now being filled in with tract housing? Which is now more likely multi-family or on smaller lots than in the past?
The share of exurban growth has slowed somewhat, but Atlanta-area growth is overwhelmingly suburban fringe growth.

Does it really matter if it dropped from 100% to 90% greenfield development?

Also, Atlanta is one of those metros where the housing typology doesn't vary that much. New housing 3 miles from downtown probably won't look/function that different than new housing 30 miles from downtown.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #6  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 12:30 PM
ATL_J's Avatar
ATL_J ATL_J is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 471
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
The share of exurban growth has slowed somewhat, but Atlanta-area growth is overwhelmingly suburban fringe growth.

Does it really matter if it dropped from 100% to 90% greenfield development?

Also, Atlanta is one of those metros where the housing typology doesn't vary that much. New housing 3 miles from downtown probably won't look/function that different than new housing 30 miles from downtown.
What do you consider the suburban fringe? Just curious.

To add some color to your comments. The Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) has ten central counties that belong to it. I'd consider this the "core" of the MSA and it comprises 34.1% of the land area of the MSA. From 2000-10 it captured 66.3% of the regions growth, however, from 2010-2015 it captured 80.8% of that growth. The inner, most "urban counties", of Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett captured 38.1% of all growth from 2000-2010, but 65.3% of all growth from 2010-2015. To wrap Atlanta into this, the city itself captured 0.4% of all growth from 2000-2010 and 10.3% of all growth from 2010-2015 for a land / capture ratio of 6.74.

The majority of suburban development occurring right now is "infill" as people in the metro seek downtown / town center environments. That isn't to say they're moving to the heart of the city, but historic downtowns like Duluth, Norcross, Roswell, Alpharetta, etc. are seeing a surge in popularity and you're seeing large faux-town centers like Avalon & Halycon in Forsyth catering to that desire. Not to imply there isn't your typical suburban cul-de-sac neighborhoods being built, but most construction activity is located in these more relatively dense, suburban areas.

I'm also not sure I agree with your housing comment. 3 miles from Downtown Atlanta doesn't take you very far and comprises most of the urban, intown neighborhoods, where the vast majority of new construction is townhomes and large multifamily projects. Atlanta does have a lot of established, leafy neighborhoods, but for those not built out, new construction in these neighborhoods does not function nor is similar to construction 30 miles out. Maybe I misunderstood the comment?

Anyways, always interesting to hear outside perspective.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #7  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 12:55 PM
initiald's Avatar
initiald initiald is offline
Oak City
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Raleigh
Posts: 4,946
In 100 years there will be the Charlanta mega-city.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #8  
Old Posted Apr 21, 2017, 1:58 AM
atlantaguy's Avatar
atlantaguy atlantaguy is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Area code 404
Posts: 3,333
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATL_J View Post
What do you consider the suburban fringe? Just curious.

To add some color to your comments. The Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) has ten central counties that belong to it. I'd consider this the "core" of the MSA and it comprises 34.1% of the land area of the MSA. From 2000-10 it captured 66.3% of the regions growth, however, from 2010-2015 it captured 80.8% of that growth. The inner, most "urban counties", of Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett captured 38.1% of all growth from 2000-2010, but 65.3% of all growth from 2010-2015. To wrap Atlanta into this, the city itself captured 0.4% of all growth from 2000-2010 and 10.3% of all growth from 2010-2015 for a land / capture ratio of 6.74.

The majority of suburban development occurring right now is "infill" as people in the metro seek downtown / town center environments. That isn't to say they're moving to the heart of the city, but historic downtowns like Duluth, Norcross, Roswell, Alpharetta, etc. are seeing a surge in popularity and you're seeing large faux-town centers like Avalon & Halycon in Forsyth catering to that desire. Not to imply there isn't your typical suburban cul-de-sac neighborhoods being built, but most construction activity is located in these more relatively dense, suburban areas.

I'm also not sure I agree with your housing comment. 3 miles from Downtown Atlanta doesn't take you very far and comprises most of the urban, intown neighborhoods, where the vast majority of new construction is townhomes and large multifamily projects. Atlanta does have a lot of established, leafy neighborhoods, but for those not built out, new construction in these neighborhoods does not function nor is similar to construction 30 miles out. Maybe I misunderstood the comment?

Anyways, always interesting to hear outside perspective.
It's best to just ignore Crawford, especially when he starts spouting off anything remotely related to Atlanta.

He has proven time after time for many years that he has absolutely no clue what he is talking about, but unfortunately that has never stopped him.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #9  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2017, 9:50 PM
SteveD's Avatar
SteveD SteveD is offline
Back on the road again
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: East Atlanta Village
Posts: 2,911
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayden View Post
So...

Anyone who is familiar with Atlanta knows that it is notorious for its suburban sprawl. Right now the metro area is comprised of some 18(?) counties. The CSA goes as far west as the Alabama state line, as far north as the basin of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains, as far East as Athens, and as far south as the extreme northern county outskirts of Macon.

Although development has become more focused within the city center over the last decade, census tracking shows that the Atlanta metro remains one of the Top 10 fastest-growing metros within the US, and with a majority of the population boom happening in the suburbs.

So my question is..how far can the Atlanta metro suburban sprawl spread?

Will it cross over the Alabama state line, or meet the South Carolina state line at some point? Will the metro end up consolidating Macon?
Atlanta's CSA previously included the first county over the border in AL to the SW, which includes Valley, AL, but it doesn't any more. That was always interesting to me because the AL border is closer headed west on I-20 than it is heading SW on I-85. I personally think future iterations of the Atlanta CSA are more likely to include Chattanooga than they are Macon. Atlanta is more closely aligned with Chattanooga than Macon.
__________________
Maybe Martians could do better than we've done
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #10  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 5:59 AM
BnaBreaker's Avatar
BnaBreaker BnaBreaker is offline
Future God
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Chicago/Nashville
Posts: 19,495
Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveD View Post
Atlanta's CSA previously included the first county over the border in AL to the SW, which includes Valley, AL, but it doesn't any more. That was always interesting to me because the AL border is closer headed west on I-20 than it is heading SW on I-85. I personally think future iterations of the Atlanta CSA are more likely to include Chattanooga than they are Macon. Atlanta is more closely aligned with Chattanooga than Macon.
For whatever reason, Atlantians seem to like to think that they can claim Chattanooga, but the reality is that there is still a great deal of sparsely populated wilderness between the two. Chattanooga is very much a sizable self sustaining metropolitan area with a rich history in it's own right, and would remain as such with or without Atlanta's existence.
__________________
"Emancipate yourself from mental slavery. None but ourselves can free our minds."

-Bob Marley
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #11  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 12:53 PM
SteveD's Avatar
SteveD SteveD is offline
Back on the road again
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: East Atlanta Village
Posts: 2,911
Quote:
Originally Posted by BnaBreaker View Post
For whatever reason, Atlantians seem to like to think that they can claim Chattanooga, but the reality is that there is still a great deal of sparsely populated wilderness between the two. Chattanooga is very much a sizable self sustaining metropolitan area with a rich history in it's own right, and would remain as such with or without Atlanta's existence.
CSAs are not a matter of one metro claiming another, they are based on other factors such as percentages of the population commuting between the two areas. My opinion based on a lifetime of living here is that there's much more interplay between Atlanta and Chattanooga than there is between Atlanta and Macon. In any case I was merely speculating, and I don't have any agenda about what Atlanta can and can't "claim".
__________________
Maybe Martians could do better than we've done
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #12  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2017, 9:56 PM
cabasse's Avatar
cabasse cabasse is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: atalanta
Posts: 4,163
there's a lot of exurban and rural growth all over the southeast, but i don't know how much of it is directly tied to atlanta...

https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/v...57f13c7295893e
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #13  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2017, 10:56 PM
SteveD's Avatar
SteveD SteveD is offline
Back on the road again
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: East Atlanta Village
Posts: 2,911
Quote:
Originally Posted by cabasse View Post
there's a lot of exurban and rural growth all over the southeast, but i don't know how much of it is directly tied to atlanta...

https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/v...57f13c7295893e
very cool map! I love maps like that!
__________________
Maybe Martians could do better than we've done
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #14  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2017, 11:02 PM
pdxtex's Avatar
pdxtex pdxtex is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 3,119
maybe crackheads will continue to wreak havoc on the hwy system and there will be a marta ridership revolution! how is that going anyway? honestly, it will spread out as far as people are willing to drive. so how far is that? Detroit arguably wrote the playbook on auto oriented land use and some folks don't bat an eye at 50 mile commutes. according to the Atlanta journal-constitution, Atlanta already has the longest average commute distances in the whole country, 12.8 miles. which sounds pretty reasonable. I bet lots of people are driving more like 40 miles.
__________________
Portland!! Where young people formerly went to retire.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #15  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 2:34 PM
Leo the Dog Leo the Dog is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: The Lower-48
Posts: 4,789
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdxtex View Post
honestly, it will spread out as far as people are willing to drive. so how far is that? Detroit arguably wrote the playbook on auto oriented land use and some folks don't bat an eye at 50 mile commutes. according to the Atlanta journal-constitution, Atlanta already has the longest average commute distances in the whole country, 12.8 miles. which sounds pretty reasonable. I bet lots of people are driving more like 40 miles.
And Atlanta isn't a pricey metropolitan region! It's pretty common for 30-60 mile commutes to expensive coastal CA cities. That's why we have a fast growing IE, it's one of the last relatively affordable places to buy a SFH, within commuting distance to LA/OC/SD.

Take a look at the Bay, incredible commute times to SF and the valley from ex-urban sprawl-villes and I'm sure that CAHSR will just open up the Central Valley to sprawl. Buy a cheap house near a station and suddenly you're a SF suburb with easy access to the city.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #16  
Old Posted Apr 18, 2017, 11:12 PM
dc_denizen's Avatar
dc_denizen dc_denizen is offline
Selfie-stick vendor
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: New York Suburbs
Posts: 10,999
truely an impressive urban span.
__________________
Joined the bus on the 33rd seat
By the doo-doo room with the reek replete
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #17  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 4:53 AM
BG918's Avatar
BG918 BG918 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 3,549
Which is sprawling faster Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston or Atlanta? All three are massive with seemingly endless suburbs. Dallas' growth favors the northern suburbs and Houston's the north and west. Does Atlanta have a particular direction it mostly follows?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #18  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 11:09 AM
Crawford Crawford is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Brooklyn, NYC/Polanco, DF
Posts: 30,551
Quote:
Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
Which is sprawling faster Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston or Atlanta? All three are massive with seemingly endless suburbs. Dallas' growth favors the northern suburbs and Houston's the north and west. Does Atlanta have a particular direction it mostly follows?
North, easily. North is the favored, affluent quarter.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #19  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 2:38 PM
Reverberation's Avatar
Reverberation Reverberation is offline
disorient yourself?
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Diaspora
Posts: 4,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
North, easily. North is the favored, affluent quarter.
Ceteris paribus, the most valuable land is always upstream and upwind from any major city.
__________________
RT60
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #20  
Old Posted Apr 19, 2017, 2:58 PM
jayden jayden is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: JERSEY
Posts: 1,488
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
North, easily. North is the favored, affluent quarter.
Which makes more sense, since the majority of the metro population, Corporate companies, and other economic generators are located in the North Metro.

If you're not in the North Metro, the only thing you might have going for you is proximity to the airport.
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 11:33 AM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.