What Does This Mean For Miami? (Cuba)

[Larry King]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

IMHO I believe it people would migrate back and forth. Live here for the majority of the year and have a vacation or business residence in Cuba.

Maybe some old people would retire there, most would stay in America. Though most old cubans in Miami hold anti-castro views and probably wouldn't feel too comfortable.. I could see non-cubans retiring there for cheap and tourists going there for resorts like they go to DR or Mexico.. less so Miami cubans until there's a new government.

[chris08876]

Residential building

Residential building in December improved 3% to $247.3 billion (annual rate). Multifamily housing climbed 14%, lifted by groundbreaking for two residential towers in New York NY, valued at $384 million and $275 million, respectively. Additional multifamily projects in December included $208 million for the multifamily portion of a $675 million mixed-use tower in Miami FL and $171 million for the multifamily portion of a $200 million mixed-use tower in Boston MA. Single family housing in December settled back 1%, as it maintained the essentially flat pattern that was present throughout 2014.

The 2014 amount for residential building was $227.8 billion, up 8%, and a much smaller increase than what was reported in 2012, up 31%; and 2013, up 26%. Single family housing grew just 2% in dollar terms, considerably less than its 27% jump in the previous year. The regional pattern for single family housing in 2014 was mixed. Gains were reported in the South Central, up 7%; the South Atlantic, up 3%; and the Northeast, up 2%; while declines were reported in the West, down 1%; and the Midwest, down 2%. Multifamily housing in 2014 climbed 28%, and has now shown annual dollar gains in excess of 20% for five straight years. By major region, multifamily housing revealed this performance in 2014 – the Northeast, up 41%; the South Atlantic, up 30%; the South Central, up 23%; the Midwest, up 20%; and the West, up 17%. The top five metropolitan areas in terms of the 2014 dollar amount of multifamily starts were New York NY, Miami FL, Washington DC, Los Angeles CA, and Boston MA. Metropolitan areas ranked 6 through 10 were – Chicago IL, Seattle WA, San Francisco CA, Philadelphia PA, and Dallas-Ft. Worth TX.

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http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...300025046.html

[chris08876]

Miami gets big bond rating boost from S&P

The city of Miami has received a substantial bond rating improvement from Standard & Poor’s thanks to improved financials and stable management practices.

The credit agency announced Monday that it boosted the city’s rating for a series of 2002 general obligation bonds up four notches to A+ from BBB. The city also received a boost to its non-ad valorem and limited tax debt to A from BBB-.

The ratings hike means long-term saving for taxpayers.

In announcing the change, S&P analysts said they relied on Miami’s strong economy and recovered budget following three consecutive years from 2010 through 2012 in which city officials balanced their budget by declaring “financial urgency.” Now, the city is enjoying annual surpluses, and reserves that are nearing $100 million.

The report mentioned concerns about the city’s debts, including pension obligations, and ongoing litigation with its unions and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. But City Manager Daniel Alfonso said in a statement that he’s “very pleased with the upgrade.”

“It is a sign that the city is doing better financially and we are moving in a positive direction,” he said.

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http://www.miamiherald.com/news/loca...#storylink=cpy

[10023]

Originally Posted by xzmattzx

Do you really want to believe something written by Rolling Stone about now?

That's what I was thinking. We're talking about a publication that employs Matt Taibbi.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Private Dick

There's a lot more behind it than just the potential for rising sea levels.

Latin America has cities that are FAR more comprehensive, diverse, and influential globally than Miami. It is a very insular viewpoint to surmise that "Miami will emerge as Latin America's first true equivalent to Manhattan". Skyscrapers alone do not a global city make.

Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires, Mexico City, and Rio de Janeiro all might have something say about that...

Yeah, that was quite an odd and insular statement to make. Both São Paulo and Mexico City are bigger cities than New York, lol.

Over the short term, I think this is much ado about nothing for Miami. They'll get a Cuban consulate and probably some additional direct flights to Habana.

If Cuba decides to move to a more capitalism based economy then that would probably give Miami a bit of a boost as a potential portal to U.S. capital. But Cuba's population and resources are pretty insignificant in the global scheme of things for this to be a game changer. Miami would also be the obvious port for shipping goods between Cuba and the U.S.

[Jasonhouse]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Miami would also be the obvious port for shipping goods between Cuba and the U.S.

Such a shame that Tampa is run by idiots. Tampa is actually the closer port to Havana and would have gotten its fair share of shipping with Cuba... But thanks to lousy planning and under-investment in the port over time, Tampa is hamstrung by a low bridge that blocks modern Panamax and post-Panamax ships from even reaching the port, the rail out of Tampa sucks, the main shipping channel can only handle one ship at a time (no passes) for nearly 30 miles, so when a cruise ship comes or goes, all freight traffic has to clear the channel, halting shipping for several hours. The result is that even though Tampa is closer to Havana by boat, and is farther up the FL peninsula, it's almost certainly faster to ship through the port of Miami.

[antinimby]

^ How is it possible that Tampa is closer to Havana than Miami?

[austlar1]

Actually Gulf coast ports like Mobile and New Orleans that routinely handle commodities and bulk products will likely emerge as the ports handling most of the direct cargo shipments into and out of Cuba should commerce again flourish between the US and Cuba.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by antinimby

^ How is it possible that Tampa is closer to Havana than Miami?

Could be shipping routes are shorter in due to the curvature of the earth. So in other words, closer in nautical miles.

[bobdreamz]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, that was quite an odd and insular statement to make. Both São Paulo and Mexico City are bigger cities than New York, lol.

Over the short term, I think this is much ado about nothing for Miami. They'll get a Cuban consulate and probably some additional direct flights to Habana.

If Cuba decides to move to a more capitalism based economy then that would probably give Miami a bit of a boost as a potential portal to U.S. capital. But Cuba's population and resources are pretty insignificant in the global scheme of things for this to be a game changer. Miami would also be the obvious port for shipping goods between Cuba and the U.S.

I tend to agree with you. Cuba can not compete with Miami economically and that is due to GMP.
Cuba can not compete with metro Miami if it still has a Economic Communist policies.
If Foreign investment outside of the US haven't been able to turn around Cuba's economy outside of the US the embargo? Why do people think Havana with it's antiquated infrastructure and the rest of Cuba could compete with Miami?
It will take "decades" for Cuba and it's business & infrastructure
to compete against Miami.

[Shawn]

There are only 11 million people living in Cuba. It's not exactly a massive, untapped market just waiting for that FDI spark to set it off. This isn't Myanmar now or Vietnam in 1996.

[Jasonhouse]

Originally Posted by antinimby

^ How is it possible that Tampa is closer to Havana than Miami?

Havana's port is on the south side of Cuba. So a boat from Miami either has to go all the way around the east end of Cuba to Havana, or it has to come west and go around the west end of Cuba, where a ship from Tampa goes on a more direct line. And with Tampa being further north, shipping traffic going north up out of Florida is quicker to send through Tampa. Or at least it used to be when Tampa still had comparable infrastructure to other ports.

I agree that ports like Houston and New Orleans would get the bulk of GOM shipping, while ports further north along the eastern seaboard would get the bulk of east coast shipping. I wouldn't exactly expect Miami or Tampa to get much of a shipping impact from improved relations with Cuba.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, that was quite an odd and insular statement to make. Both São Paulo and Mexico City are bigger cities than New York, lol.

The three cities are all about the same size.

The issue with Miami, as compared to SP or DF, is that it's truly a Latin American mecca. DF is strictly Mexican, and SP is Brazilian, and not even properly "Latin", in the common context of Latin America.

Brazil, culturally and linguistically, does not align with Spanish-speaking Latin America.

And BA is basically the capitol of a banana republic at this point. You have the govt. executing prosecutors and blaming the CIA, a legal system that would embarrass Mexico, and the country on the verge of bankruptcy. No chance in the near future for BA to become more of a Latin American hub.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The three cities are all about the same size.

The issue with Miami, as compared to SP or DF, is that it's truly a Latin American mecca. DF is strictly Mexican, and SP is Brazilian, and not even properly "Latin", in the common context of Latin America.

Brazil, culturally and linguistically, does not align with Spanish-speaking Latin America.

No, this isn't really accurate. SP is the financial center of Latin America and Brazil is the predominant travel hub for Latin American travelers. SP is far more a hub for Latin America than Miami. I was just in Brazil two weeks ago and there was nearly as much Spanish being spoken as Portuguese. I don't even know what "proper 'Latin'" is supposed to mean. The only way it's any less Latin than the rest of South America is if you reduce Latin to mean Spanish.

[chris08876]

Rich Brazilians, Wary of Government, Look Abroad

Ask rich Brazilians why they are relocating to South Florida, and they cite Brazil's high crime rates and moribund economy.

But there is another one-word explanation that Alyce M. Robertson, executive director of the Miami Downtown Development Authority, heard frequently on a recent business trip to Brazil: "Dilma."

That would be Dilma Rousseff, the center-left president who was re-elected in October and is generally loathed by Brazil's elites.

"After the last election, we were talking to a lot of people concerned about getting their capital out of Brazil," Ms. Robertson said recently in Miami. These people's concerns, both in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, were "mostly about the politics."

Brazil's wealthy and powerful have been buying Miami luxury condos and indulging in Bal Harbour shopping sprees for decades. But in recent months a number of Brazilians have reacted to Ms. Rousseff's re-election by seeking to lay down longer-term roots in greater Miami and, to a lesser extent, Orlando, New York and Boston.

Although exact figures aren't available, Miami-based developers, real-estate agents, bankers, retailers and immigration lawyers say growing numbers of wealthy Brazilians are trying to move to the region, set up businesses there, and trying to obtain residency or citizenship for themselves and their families.

"Mainly they feel concerned about the instability of Brazil's political environment; they don't want to be the last ones to leave," said Genilde Guerra, an attorney at Miami-based Kravitz & Guerra law offices.

Ms. Guerra said that the number of phone calls her office receives from Brazilians seeking help in obtaining U.S. visas, buying homes or starting businesses stateside has increased tenfold since the election. And the number of emails she receives daily about getting a green card rose from three or four a day before the election to 25 or 30 a day afterward.

"They want to have a second nationality, a second place to go, and the U.S. is the best place for that," Ms. Guerra said.

[...]

Brazilians are among Miami's top three foreign buyers of high-price real estate, along with Argentines and Venezuelans, two other troubled economies. That is despite--or, some say, because of--the dramatic weakening of Brazil's economy.In the past year, Brazil's currency, the real, has lost about a fifth of its value against the dollar. The country's inflation rate is nearing the government's target limit of 6.5%, and economists project the GDP to barely budge this year. It is a big turnaround from the previous decade when a commodities boom fueled strong growth and Brazil became a star among emerging market economies.

[...]

"Miami is the biggest Brazilian city outside of Brazil right now."

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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/rich-...ydney-s-budina

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Rich Brazilians, Wary of Government, Look Abroad




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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/rich-...ydney-s-budina

Miami will get about as many Brazilians because of Dilma as Canada got of American Republicans because of Obama... Or American Democrats because of W...

[Private Dick]

Originally Posted by chris08876

"Miami is the biggest Brazilian city outside of Brazil right now."

That is such incredible bullshit.

What is that supposed to mean anyway? It is a somewhat provocative headline but little else. Miami is not a "Brazilian city" by any stretch of the imagination.

Brazilians in large numbers have been visiting Miami for decades. It is true that more recently, wealthier Brazilians have been buying real estate in Miami and parking money in Miami banks (just like everyone else from South America with money), but that hardly makes Miami a "Brazilian city".

Newsflash: LinkedIn "articles" are just about the lowest form of reporting one can find. Consider the source for this drivel... Sydney S. Budina
Luxury Real Estate Executive at Decorus Realty

[chris08876]

^^^^^

This was in the Wall Street Journal, but since I don't have a WSJ subscription, I found the same article on Linkedin for free.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/rich-bra...oad-1423182280



I think they where referring to the state. To say the city of Miami is kinda an exaggeration.

But point being, S.Florida is a hot spot for Brazilian investment. Likewise the same applies for all of the U.S. compared
to other countries where investment occurs.

Also if you noticed, it was a quote from Mr.Fonseca so its clearly a spirited idea. An exaggeration, not meant to be literal fact.

More of the tone leading up to the quote. Signifies optimism.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Private Dick

That is such incredible bullshit.

Out of curiosity, what other candidates for "biggest Brazilian city outside of Brazil" would you suggest?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Private Dick

That is such incredible bullshit.

What is that supposed to mean anyway? It is a somewhat provocative headline but little else. Miami is not a "Brazilian city" by any stretch of the imagination.

I think it's probably accurate. Brazil's wealthy have been flocking to South Florida in pretty enormous numbers in recent years. There's also a big presence in NYC, but they are less prominent in NYC because of issues of scale. NYC also has a long-time working class Brazilian community, in parts of Queens, Westchester County (Mt. Vernon) and a few towns in NJ, but that's a different demographic than the rich people leaving Sao Paulo, it's more construction workers and the like.

The U.S., whether its deserved or not, is presently considered the most stable economy and real estate market on earth. Rich people from around the globe put their money in U.S. real estate and equitites, and use the U.S. as a "refuge" in case of revolution in their home countries. Why do you think there are so many Russians, Chinese, Argentines, Brazilians, etc. buying up real estate in places like Manhattan?