Next Municipal Election - Oct 27, 2014 - contenders

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Capital Shaun

True. But that's because Conservatives erroneously think conservative minded voters only ever vote for conservative branded politicians at all levels of government. There's probably a small percentage that do (the core supporters) but most voters are probably quite volatile & flexible in their votes.

It's a percentage that has likely increased (for all parties, but even more on the left), and if they don't like what they saw, they usually stay home.

As for the low turnout, the ho-hum Mayor's race is likely the main reason.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by Capital Shaun

True. But that's because Conservatives erroneously think conservative minded voters only ever vote for conservative branded politicians at all levels of government. There's probably a small percentage that do (the core supporters) but most voters are probably quite volatile & flexible in their votes.

For the Tories, as a strategic goal, that's enough.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by JeffB

Does voter turnout by ward ever get published? I would imagine it might have been higher in a hotly contested ward (like Kichissippi), and lower in one where there wasn't much of a contest (like Knoxdale-Merivale, which is my ward).

yes. The preliminary results already have it.

(Ward No., Ward Name, Turnout%, Winner's Vote%, Winner

1 Orléans 38.3 75.5 Bob Monette
2 Innes 44.4 33.0 Jody Mitic
3 Barrhaven 34.5 75.5 Jan Harder
4 Kanata North 45.7 46.2 Marianne Wilkinson
5 West Carleton-March 46.4 56.9 Eli El-Chantiry
6 Stittsville 43.8 60.9 Shad Qadri
7 Bay 42.8 46.8 Mark Taylor
8 College 38.5 70.4 Rick Chiarelli
9 Knoxdale-Merivale 36.7 73.2 Keith Egli
10 Gloucester-Southgate 36.9 56.3 Diane Deans
11 Beacon Hill-Cyrville 38.2 82.1 Tim Tierney
12 Rideau-Vanier 37.3 51.5 Mathieu Fleury
13 Rideau-Rockcliffe 39.9 47.2 Tobi Nussbaum
14 Somerset 39.8 40.1 Catherine McKenney
15 Kitchissippi 48.3 55.4 Jeff Leiper
16 River 36.2 36.4 Riley Brockington
17 Capital 38.8 77.4 David Chernushenko
18 Alta Vista 38.6 47.4 Jean Cloutier
19 Cumberland 38.0 78.0 Stephen Blais
20 Osgoode 45.6 21.1 George Darouze
21 Rideau-Goulbourn 42.6 62.3 Scott Moffatt
22 Gloucester-South Nepean 40.3 38.6 Michael Qaqish
23 Kanata South 36.6 84.7 Allan Hubley

A scatterplot of "Turnout vs. Blowout" shows some correlation between the blow-outiness of the race, and the turnout. (r^2 = .22)

[McC]

Nicely done George "Landslide" Darouze!

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by McC

Nicely done George "Landslide" Darouze!

Not bad, considering there were, what, 536 candidates running in that ward?

[Cre47]

Leiper will not have a lot of friends in this forum for sure and probably in Council too. Ken Gray must be celebrating a lot the result though, but I expect still plenty of development in Kitchissippi and more condos popping since Leiper is only one voice out of a mostly developer-friendly (and sadly including suburban sprawl) council.

Hubley gets the highest percentage despite all the rumours swirling a potential federal run for Harper (especially since the two Conservatives in nomination for the new Kanata riding are basically no-names even though one was part of a low-key tax advocacy group - in which the zero means zero blogger ridiculed a lot back during the O'Brien years). I would have been pissed off at him if I was living in Kanata South.

[Urbanarchit]

Originally Posted by Cre47

Leiper will not have a lot of friends in this forum for sure and probably in Council too. Ken Gray must be celebrating a lot the result though, but I expect still plenty of development in Kitchissippi and more condos popping since Leiper is only one voice out of a mostly developer-friendly (and sadly including suburban sprawl) council.

Probably not much support, but if he can deliver on bikes and something good for LRT then he might receive some support. What I hope from him is, that if he buries LRT along the parkway, he'd be willing to cover the transitway trench and allow for something (is TOD too much to ask for?) along it and reclaim that space for Hintonburg and Mechanicsville.

But if he delivers on the bike lanes on Wellington-Richmond, would he angers most (car-dependent) residents and Ken Gray?

But we might not see much development happening, unless it conforms to his too rigid ideas of what's in the CDP is best. Instead, we could eventually see the area become too expensive and no longer interesting (it's getting to that point) and other areas begin to gentrify where people can afford to live and development is not as restricted. But I digress, we'll wait and see.

[1overcosc]

I sense he will achieve nothing. He'll be ignored as council votes 23-1 against him on everything he wants. LRT won't be buried, towers will go ahead all over, and all that he can do is wail and be the 1 vote against.

[1overcosc]

Saw on twitter this morning that Jim Watson did indeed win all 23 wards.

[McC]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

...all that he can do is wail and be the 1 vote against.

That's not Jeff Leiper's style.

[Urbanarchit]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I sense he will achieve nothing. He'll be ignored as council votes 23-1 against him on everything he wants. LRT won't be buried, towers will go ahead all over, and all that he can do is wail and be the 1 vote against.

I don't know about that. He might receive support from several of the urban councillors, but he'll have to convince the suburban/rural ones that the CDP is best. If they're getting tougher on the plans, he might be successful with his positions. In fact, he might not be as bad as we think for other wards - would he support redeveloping Booth Street Complex and how would it be realized? I feel like he might get a fair amount of support or be successful.

Then again he could be another Diane Holmes in that he tries hard and has some successes, but doesn't have much success due to other councillors' positions. It would still look good to the electorate that he tried hard and had some successes, and might be re-elected instead of replaced. In any case, I really hope he pulls through with bike lanes all over, as we really need them.

Actually, what has Diane Holmes done that she receives such accolades from her constituents and residents of other wards? She only got one bike lane for Laurier three years ago, but has she been advocating for bike lanes elsewhere (Bank?)? I feel West Centretown/Little Italy/ Chinatown was neglected. I want to see some love given to those parts of Ottawa, as they do need it and have lots of potential.

[JeffB]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

yes. The preliminary results already have it.

(Ward No., Ward Name, Turnout%, Winner's Vote%, Winner

1 Orléans 38.3 75.5 Bob Monette
2 Innes 44.4 33.0 Jody Mitic
3 Barrhaven 34.5 75.5 Jan Harder
4 Kanata North 45.7 46.2 Marianne Wilkinson
5 West Carleton-March 46.4 56.9 Eli El-Chantiry
6 Stittsville 43.8 60.9 Shad Qadri
7 Bay 42.8 46.8 Mark Taylor
8 College 38.5 70.4 Rick Chiarelli
9 Knoxdale-Merivale 36.7 73.2 Keith Egli
10 Gloucester-Southgate 36.9 56.3 Diane Deans
11 Beacon Hill-Cyrville 38.2 82.1 Tim Tierney
12 Rideau-Vanier 37.3 51.5 Mathieu Fleury
13 Rideau-Rockcliffe 39.9 47.2 Tobi Nussbaum
14 Somerset 39.8 40.1 Catherine McKenney
15 Kitchissippi 48.3 55.4 Jeff Leiper
16 River 36.2 36.4 Riley Brockington
17 Capital 38.8 77.4 David Chernushenko
18 Alta Vista 38.6 47.4 Jean Cloutier
19 Cumberland 38.0 78.0 Stephen Blais
20 Osgoode 45.6 21.1 George Darouze
21 Rideau-Goulbourn 42.6 62.3 Scott Moffatt
22 Gloucester-South Nepean 40.3 38.6 Michael Qaqish
23 Kanata South 36.6 84.7 Allan Hubley

A scatterplot of "Turnout vs. Blowout" shows some correlation between the blow-outiness of the race, and the turnout. (r^2 = .22)

Thanks for the info.

A dull mayoral race really does stifle participation. And wards where there was not a lot of competition didn`t help that at all.

[JeffB]

Originally Posted by defishel

I don't know about that. He might receive support from several of the urban councillors, but he'll have to convince the suburban/rural ones that the CDP is best. If they're getting tougher on the plans, he might be successful with his positions. In fact, he might not be as bad as we think for other wards - would he support redeveloping Booth Street Complex and how would it be realized? I feel like he might get a fair amount of support or be successful.

Then again he could be another Diane Holmes in that he tries hard and has some successes, but doesn't have much success due to other councillors' positions. It would still look good to the electorate that he tried hard and had some successes, and might be re-elected instead of replaced. In any case, I really hope he pulls through with bike lanes all over, as we really need them.

Actually, what has Diane Holmes done that she receives such accolades from her constituents and residents of other wards? She only got one bike lane for Laurier three years ago, but has she been advocating for bike lanes elsewhere (Bank?)? I feel West Centretown/Little Italy/ Chinatown was neglected. I want to see some love given to those parts of Ottawa, as they do need it and have lots of potential.

I've worked for the same organization as Leiper in the past (we've even fielded phone calls for each other when the receptionist accidentally patched them through to the wrong Jeff) and he is a decent enough guy. But I do suspect that he is in for a big eye-opening when he gets into the council chamber. As much as the folks in his ward want things to be cut and dried, I think he will find out that things are more complicated than he imagined.

[eternallyme]

I heard in Clarence-Rockland their entire council was basically overhauled, with the Mayor and 7 of the 8 councillors either losing or stepping aside...now that is dramatic change.

[eternallyme]

In fact, of all the important Mayoral races (excluding acclamations) in the sphere of influence but outside Ottawa, only North Grenville and The Nation (Limoges area) stuck with who they had.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa...fall-1.2816030

[1overcosc]

^ Russell Township would have almost certainly re-elected their current mayor if he hadn't passed away suddenly during the campaign.

[1overcosc]

Colourful map of ward by ward mayoral results. Watson everywhere. Strongest in the the inner city and in Orleans, weakest in the rural area.

Earl Washburn creator of this map says that Watson's biggest vote share was in Capital Ward, smallest in Rideau-Goulbourn Ward.


SOURCE: Earl Washburn's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn

[eternallyme]

Interesting that, with the exception of Osgoode, it seemed the farther east you went the greater the support for Watson. Also Watson support seemed higher the closer to the Ottawa River you went (noticeable in Kanata especially).

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Interesting that, with the exception of Osgoode, it seemed the farther east you went the greater the support for Watson. Also Watson support seemed higher the closer to the Ottawa River you went (noticeable in Kanata especially).

Not surprising. Folks in Bridlewood and Glen Cairn are generally a lot more right-wing than their counterparts north of the highway.

[S-Man]

I don't know about that. He might receive support from several of the urban councillors, but he'll have to convince the suburban/rural ones that the CDP is best. If they're getting tougher on the plans, he might be successful with his positions. In fact, he might not be as bad as we think for other wards - would he support redeveloping Booth Street Complex and how would it be realized? I feel like he might get a fair amount of support or be successful.

Then again he could be another Diane Holmes in that he tries hard and has some successes, but doesn't have much success due to other councillors' positions. It would still look good to the electorate that he tried hard and had some successes, and might be re-elected instead of replaced. In any case, I really hope he pulls through with bike lanes all over, as we really need them.

Actually, what has Diane Holmes done that she receives such accolades from her constituents and residents of other wards? She only got one bike lane for Laurier three years ago, but has she been advocating for bike lanes elsewhere (Bank?)? I feel West Centretown/Little Italy/ Chinatown was neglected. I want to see some love given to those parts of Ottawa, as they do need it and have lots of potential.

For downtown politicians like Holmes, a lot of it comes down to the type of person you are, and the words and ideas you constantly preach (OK, this isn't just a downtown thing). Sure, I'd agree that her achievements were limited, but she advocated for all the things the vocal people in her ward wanted (except high-rises). Remember, it was THE CITY that didn't deliver, not Holmes.

She always cast herself as the steeped-in-NDP-progressiveness rabble-rouser, fighting against the big, bad, developer-funded majority voice on council.

As for Leiper, it could be true he'll have a rough go, but I think that unless we see an influx of tall condo proposals like those of a few years ago (NONE of which have been built, or probably ever will), the community's feelings for him might not switch so suddenly.

Even if they did, I'm sure he'd master the art of demonizing his predecessor, much like he did with the incumbent during the election.

On the development front, Hobbs got a raw deal. The condo influx, which started on the tail end of Leadman's reign (and contributed to her ousting, despite her failed attempts to stop anything from happening in her ward), fell mainly on the shoulders of Hobbs. No councillor has veto power, and a reasonable person could put themselves in he position and ask "What could anyone have done?"

I would say there were a number of improvements that occurred in the ward thanks to her, and that influx of condos? Where are they? No towers going up on Parkdale, none on Somerset, just the low-to-mid rises along Wellington-Richmond. The neighbourhoods look an awful lot like it did 4 years ago.

Anyway, timing is everything. In a ward that experiences no change, you can have a term-over-term dynasty. In a place that changes rapidly, you get rapid councillor turnover like we've seen in Kitchissippi.

The bus detour-LRT trench business is the most likely to affect Leiper, as those issues have not yet come to pass. If you campaign on the typical platform of 'vote for me and I'll make it better' and you can't deliver on it, the public won't care that you're a different councillor than the last.