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  #1161  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 1:16 AM
acottawa acottawa is offline
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
I was just thinking about how last (federal) election there was one polling company whose numbers where always way out of whack compared to every single one of the others.

It was Forum Research.

I don't even think they had the Liberals winning the day before the election.
Forum’s last poll was 40, 30, 20, actual results were 39.5, 31.9, 19.7.
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  #1162  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 2:15 AM
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People still do this? In Canada?

The women who use what is a legally available public service also have a right not to be harassed and guilt-tripped for doing so.

If some people have a problem with abortion in Canada, they should be picketing MP's offices, not clinics.
Agreed and the same principal applies to any protestor, including strikers, and any business.
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  #1163  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 2:28 AM
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  #1164  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 6:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
People still do this? In Canada?

The women who use what is a legally available public service also have a right not to be harassed and guilt-tripped for doing so.

If some people have a problem with abortion in Canada, they should be picketing MP's offices, not clinics.
You never heard of Campagne Québec-Vie?
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  #1165  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 6:42 AM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Forum’s last poll was 40, 30, 20, actual results were 39.5, 31.9, 19.7.
All things considered, when including how close Forum was to getting Green/Bloc results, Forum was more accurate than Nanos for that one.
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  #1166  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 6:48 AM
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This Huawei nonsense is just another reminder of how little Canada matters. USA requested the arrest, effectively tying Canada's hands to a due process system where the USA can delay and abuse the system keeping this CFO locked up.

Meanwhile China retaliates harshly against Canada, seeming to have zero sense that the USA is the instigator here. USA gets away scot-free, continuing trade talks and even openly calling this arrest as leverage.

It's funny how many Canadians utterly detest Trump, and yet in this instance have un-erring faith in the executive branch's justice department in the USA.

Ask yourself why are American senators calling for calling off all relations of Canada to Huawei if the only crime they committed was a rogue CFO operating a shell company to avoid Iranian sanctions?

If it wasn't just a rogue CFO, and the whole company is rotten, ask yourself why American companies still actively do business with Huawei, including export of goods? A company which allegedly is violating export laws?

This is yet another instance where Canada's opportunities to diversify it's trading partners with countries other than the USA are stymied, and somehow the USA suffers absolutely zero consequences. Amazing how this keeps happening.
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  #1167  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 8:50 AM
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This Huawei nonsense is just another reminder of how little Canada matters. USA requested the arrest, effectively tying Canada's hands to a due process system where the USA can delay and abuse the system keeping this CFO locked up.

Meanwhile China retaliates harshly against Canada, seeming to have zero sense that the USA is the instigator here. USA gets away scot-free, continuing trade talks and even openly calling this arrest as leverage.

It's funny how many Canadians utterly detest Trump, and yet in this instance have un-erring faith in the executive branch's justice department in the USA.

Ask yourself why are American senators calling for calling off all relations of Canada to Huawei if the only crime they committed was a rogue CFO operating a shell company to avoid Iranian sanctions?

If it wasn't just a rogue CFO, and the whole company is rotten, ask yourself why American companies still actively do business with Huawei, including export of goods? A company which allegedly is violating export laws?

This is yet another instance where Canada's opportunities to diversify it's trading partners with countries other than the USA are stymied, and somehow the USA suffers absolutely zero consequences. Amazing how this keeps happening.
Huawei is a de facto agent of the Chinese state. You can find a good explanation of why the Five Eyes are moving to isolate Huawei in this Sydney Morning Herald article from Australia. They speculate Canada will bar Huawei in a matter of weeks from 5G network work:


It was a warm evening this past July when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shared a drink with the world’s most powerful intelligence network.

Spy chiefs from the Five Eyes nations had come to a secure resort in coastal Nova Scotia for an informal evening after intense talks in nearby Ottawa...

...In the months that followed that July 17 dinner, an unprecedented campaign has been waged by those present – Australia, the US, Canada, New Zealand and the UK – to block Chinese tech giant Huawei from supplying equipment for their next-generation wireless networks...

..Not all agreed to speak publicly about China when they returned home, but all were determined to act. And the Five Eyes network would include allies like Japan and Germany in the conversation.

This coming in from the cold was viewed as a countermeasure to China and its many proxies, who have long argued fears over its rising power and influence were a fiction, or worse still, signs of xenophobia.

Since that July meeting there has been a series of rare public speeches by intelligence chiefs and a coordinated effort on banning Huawei from 5G networks. It began with one of Malcolm Turnbull’s last acts as Prime Minister...

...Washington’s sharp focus on Beijing plays into Trump’s obsession with trade wars but it would be wrong to think it’s solely driven by the President. Over the past two years Republicans and Democrats in Congress and the Departments of Defence, State and the security agencies have come to the conclusion China is a strategic threat.

US prosecutors have filed charges against Chinese hackers and, in an audacious sting in April, American agents lured Chinese Ministry of State Security deputy director Yanjun Xu to Belgium, where he was arrested for orchestrating the theft of military secrets.

There is also speculation further indictments are imminent over a concerted Chinese hacking campaign known as “Operation Cloud Hopper”, which is believed to have penetrated networks across the globe, including Australia....


https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...13-p50m24.html
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  #1168  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Forum’s last poll was 40, 30, 20, actual results were 39.5, 31.9, 19.7.
And 2 weeks before that they were 34 CONS, 28 NDP and 27 LIB - so

Forum are very much the outlier - they have the PCs at 51% in BC - leading by 20 point, leading by 9 in millenials



It's also easy to spot them in graphs



Anyways - it's still a bit early to be looking at polls.
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  #1169  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 2:08 PM
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Originally Posted by FrankieFlowerpot View Post
And 2 weeks before that they were 34 CONS, 28 NDP and 27 LIB - so

Forum are very much the outlier - they have the PCs at 51% in BC - leading by 20 point, leading by 9 in millenials



It's also easy to spot them in graphs



Anyways - it's still a bit early to be looking at polls.
Yeah, that's what I was thinking of. Forum Research were way off the mark for most of the campaign, and then only fell into line towards the very end of the campaign.
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  #1170  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 2:41 PM
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Originally Posted by FrankieFlowerpot View Post
Anyways - it's still a bit early to be looking at polls.
Fully agree, I only posted the Nanos link as it contained some interesting insight pertaining to what may be of interest come next October.

While it's still 8 months until the election is in full swing, I think that there are a couple items that may have a big impact:

1 - Will the Green surge increase and will they assume the role of alternate vote for dissatisfied left-leaning Liberals who can't vote for JT and the Gang?
2 - Will the Norman affair turn into JT's "Duffy" and drag the integrity of the Liberals down?
3 - Will the "millennium wave" still be there for the Liberals or will they lose interest in voting?
4 - Will the Cons be able to make a message that sticks to LIberals that resonates with the voters? (e.g. "You can't believe his promises", "The Liberal cabal are out of touch with the middle class", "He likes to play dress up", etc.
5- Will there be an economic slow down that drives the concern about increasing debts?

As almost anything can happen in an election, it will be interesting to see next November what the drivers were.
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  #1171  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 4:28 PM
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It's interesting to note that the NDP collapse appears to have mostly benefited the Greens. Exactly which NDP voter blocs have left for the Greens could make a huge difference.
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  #1172  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 5:02 PM
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It's interesting to note that the NDP collapse appears to have mostly benefited the Greens. Exactly which NDP voter blocs have left for the Greens could make a huge difference.
In NB at least, the NDP is all but extinct. The far left vote has migrated to the GRN. They have three MLAs in the provincial house (NDP none).

Federally, this might be Jagmeet's ultimate legacy - a strengthening of the Green Party.
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  #1173  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 5:06 PM
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Huawei is a de facto agent of the Chinese state. You can find a good explanation of why the Five Eyes are moving to isolate Huawei in this Sydney Morning Herald article from Australia.
That's all fine, but really we should have pulled out of dealings with them after the Nortel scandal (what is it, 5+ years ago now?).

Canada can make that decision on it's own given all the available evidence. I suspect we will make the right decision, and gasbag republicans and Trump will have nothing to do with that decision.

That said, it doesn't take much to see Canada is being bullied by the USA on this file, and out of all the developments that have occurred, Canada has bore the brunt of consequences whereas the USA has again got off scot-free while playing Trump's Department of Justice games. Again, ask yourself why American companies are still free to do business dealings with them and even export products to them?

Again, just shows how little Canada matters.
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  #1174  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 5:49 PM
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Originally Posted by once View Post
That's all fine, but really we should have pulled out of dealings with them after the Nortel scandal (what is it, 5+ years ago now?).

Canada can make that decision on it's own given all the available evidence. I suspect we will make the right decision, and gasbag republicans and Trump will have nothing to do with that decision.

That said, it doesn't take much to see Canada is being bullied by the USA on this file, and out of all the developments that have occurred, Canada has bore the brunt of consequences whereas the USA has again got off scot-free while playing Trump's Department of Justice games. Again, ask yourself why American companies are still free to do business dealings with them and even export products to them?

Again, just shows how little Canada matters.
The things is, all the western countries are generally supportive of Trump's policies in this regard, as are the Democrats. It is only because Trump is such an idiot that there isn't more public consensus. China got away with a lot trade-wise and should have been challenged sooner, when it became apparent trade wasn't going to lead to Democratic reform. They should no longer be allowed to take advantages of breaks accorded a "developing economy".

After almost a year of going it alone, President Trump finds himself with a surprising weapon in his trade confrontation with China: allies.

Pressure from Europe and Japan is amplifying the president’s vocal complaints about Chinese trade practices that he says discriminate against foreign companies and threaten U.S. economic growth — as fresh economic data Friday in Beijing showed the economy slowing more than expected.

To eliminate one major irritant, Chinese leaders already have begun scaling back an industrial policy aimed at dominating 10 technology industries after concluding that the president’s objections were widely shared and could not be resolved merely by waiting out the mercurial American leader.

“One thing the Chinese have had to acknowledge is that it wasn’t a Trump issue; it was a world issue,” said Jorge Guajardo, senior director at McClarty Associates and a former Mexican ambassador to China. “Everybody’s tired of the way China games the trading system and makes promises that never amount to anything.”..

...The European Union last month agreed to establish a new screening mechanism for foreign investments, motivated largely by a sharp increase in Chinese activity on the continent. But the E.U. measure leaves final decisions to national governments and falls short of the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).

The Germany government in July blocked two potential acquisitions by Chinese investors, following similar action by Canada two months earlier, and lowered to 15 percent from 25 percent the foreign ownership stakes that require review. British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government also announced plans for closer scrutiny of investments by foreign entities.

Despite his reputation as a global loner, Trump’s views on China are becoming the conventional wisdom. Last month, as the president prepared to travel to Buenos Aires for an international summit and dinner with Xi, a top administration official claimed broad support for U.S. goals...


https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...=.b43bd82650c7
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  #1175  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 6:10 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Huawei is a de facto agent of the Chinese state. You can find a good explanation of why the Five Eyes are moving to isolate Huawei in this Sydney Morning Herald article from Australia. They speculate Canada will bar Huawei in a matter of weeks from 5G network work:


It was a warm evening this past July when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shared a drink with the world’s most powerful intelligence network.

Spy chiefs from the Five Eyes nations had come to a secure resort in coastal Nova Scotia for an informal evening after intense talks in nearby Ottawa...

...In the months that followed that July 17 dinner, an unprecedented campaign has been waged by those present – Australia, the US, Canada, New Zealand and the UK – to block Chinese tech giant Huawei from supplying equipment for their next-generation wireless networks...

..Not all agreed to speak publicly about China when they returned home, but all were determined to act. And the Five Eyes network would include allies like Japan and Germany in the conversation.

This coming in from the cold was viewed as a countermeasure to China and its many proxies, who have long argued fears over its rising power and influence were a fiction, or worse still, signs of xenophobia.

Since that July meeting there has been a series of rare public speeches by intelligence chiefs and a coordinated effort on banning Huawei from 5G networks. It began with one of Malcolm Turnbull’s last acts as Prime Minister...

...Washington’s sharp focus on Beijing plays into Trump’s obsession with trade wars but it would be wrong to think it’s solely driven by the President. Over the past two years Republicans and Democrats in Congress and the Departments of Defence, State and the security agencies have come to the conclusion China is a strategic threat.

US prosecutors have filed charges against Chinese hackers and, in an audacious sting in April, American agents lured Chinese Ministry of State Security deputy director Yanjun Xu to Belgium, where he was arrested for orchestrating the theft of military secrets.

There is also speculation further indictments are imminent over a concerted Chinese hacking campaign known as “Operation Cloud Hopper”, which is believed to have penetrated networks across the globe, including Australia....


https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...13-p50m24.html
this is 1000% not the reason, plus spy angencies have much more effective ways to spy on people already.

huawei has 5g tech that would destroy it's competitors in NA if it was allowed to enter the market. apple would be done. this is only being done to protect american corporations from foreign competition
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  #1176  
Old Posted Dec 14, 2018, 6:12 PM
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Originally Posted by headhorse View Post
this is 1000% not the reason, plus spy angencies have much more effective ways to spy on people already.

huawei has 5g tech that would destroy it's competitors in NA if it was allowed to enter the market. apple would be done. this is only being done to protect american corporations from foreign competition
Save it for your comrades.

Huawei and other Chinese tech companies have gotten where they are by stealing western technology or forcing western companies to hand it over as part of forced partnership agreements. It stops starting now.
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  #1177  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2018, 4:48 AM
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All, right folks, let's bring this thread on-topic.
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  #1178  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2018, 6:32 PM
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The NDP certainly served it`s purpose but now is dying a not-so-slow death and the asinine choice as Singh as leader has been the nail in the coffin. They can no longer count on the union vote and as the Liberals have moved left they have lost that vote as well...…...their traditional constiuency has disappeared as will they eventually. Their one time surge in Quebec under Layton has all but vanished and as the Tories have moved right over the past decade and left their `Progressive` title in the dustbin, the ABC vote is stronger than ever and the only party that anyone can see holding the Tories at bay are, of course, the Liberals.
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  #1179  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2018, 6:35 PM
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The NDP certainly served it`s purpose but now is dying a not-so-slow death and the asinine choice as Singh as leader has been the nail in the coffin. They can no longer count on the union vote and as the Liberals have moved left, they have lost that vote as well...…...they have totally lost their constituency. Their one time surge in Quebec under Layton has all but disappeared and as the Tories have moved right over the past decade and left their `Progressive` title in the dustbin, the ABC vote is stronger than ever and the only party that anyone can see holding the Tories at bay are, of course, the Liberals.
I wouldn't write their eulogy yet. The NDP has a way of surprising people.
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  #1180  
Old Posted Dec 15, 2018, 8:03 PM
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Damn, Mélanie Joly cancelled planned China trip. Looks like we won't be able to get rid of her that way :p

(The Chinese would've likely done us all the favor of locking her up and throwing away the key)
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