[Saint John] Fundy Quay (South Market Wharf) | 19-6s | 70m-26m | U/C - Page 6

Southpaw78 · #**101** Posted **Jan 15, 2014, 8:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whaler

I am hearing they lost the developer. Back to the drawing board I guess?

Even so, an update, ANY update, from SJWD would be appreciated!

Whaler · #**102** Posted **Jan 16, 2014, 3:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Southpaw78

Even so, an update, ANY update, from SJWD would be appreciated!

It seems like they are more interested in planting flowers and etc?

HardTruth · #**103** Posted **Jan 18, 2014, 12:52 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whaler

I am hearing they lost the developer. Back to the drawing board I guess?

Saint John has the following to offer currently:

- Highest apartment vacancy in Canada

- Very low population growth

That's a combo that should scare the crap out of any large scale multi-unit housing developer.

not to worry though, THE PIPELINE WILL FIX EVERYTHING!!!!11!!1!!1

credit woodstock-nbevents.blogspot.ca

JHikka · #**104** Posted **Jan 18, 2014, 3:01 PM**

What's most startling about your post is that i've met three of the people in the photo you posted.

Troll posts won't be tolerated.

swish · #**105** Posted **Jan 18, 2014, 10:24 PM**

The pipeline will certainly not fix everything but the fine people of Saint John will. I very much believe it Saint John and my wife and i often talk of one day moving there or having a 2nd residence there. Youngstown, Ohio has had its challenges just like saint john but there is no giving up.

UptownJeff · #**106** Posted **Jan 19, 2014, 10:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JHikka

What's most startling about your post is that i've met three of the people in the photo you posted.

Troll posts won't be tolerated.

I would like to suggest that the post be deleted if troll posts are not tolerated?

mylesmalley · #**107** Posted **Jan 20, 2014, 3:02 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by UptownJeff

I would like to suggest that the post be deleted if troll posts are not tolerated?

In spite of the sarcastic tone, he's not actually wrong regarding the high vacancy rate tied with low population growth being a deterrent to investors.

Wolkenkratzerliebhab · #**108** Posted **Jan 20, 2014, 3:57 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by UptownJeff

I would like to suggest that the post be deleted if troll posts are not tolerated?

I agree! No matter whether he is right or wrong, he posted his comments in a deliberate attempt to lower the moral of those of us concerned about this project.

Personally, like the Gretsky's old saying, "I go where the buck is heading, not where its been!" (I know, I butchered that, didn't I?) I too think that we must rather concentrate NOT on where Saint John has been, or even is now, but rather we should be concentrating on where it potentially can go and WILL GO, and with the pipeline, etc., I believe HardTruth is going to be facing some 'hardtruth' himself and looking a little foolish in the process!

sjuser23 · #**109** Posted **Jan 20, 2014, 12:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by HardTruth

Saint John has the following to offer currently:

- Highest apartment vacancy in Canada

- Very low population growth

That's a combo that should scare the crap out of any large scale multi-unit housing developer.

not to worry though, THE PIPELINE WILL FIX EVERYTHING!!!!11!!1!!1

credit woodstock-nbevents.blogspot.ca

On the flip side, the city was shrinking but is now in a growth mode population wise and the vacancy rate is a result of a lot of new apartment buildings being built and the slum buildings being vacated. Far too long have many, many buildings been ignored but rented as people had little choice. Now they have choice in the form of new buildings all over the City and the derelict buildings with little investment are now being left vacant.

Long term, i think this is good. Hopefully we will see those without the willingness or ability to invest in the older uptown buildings be forced to sell the buildings due to low vacancy to be bought by those with the willingness and ability to invest in those buildings. The opportunities are unlike any other City in this province for a urban downtown living feel. High ceilings and loft spaces abound and could be a real attraction with the right investment and synergy that could happen once it starts to snowball.

UptownJeff · #**110** Posted **Jan 20, 2014, 6:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjuser23

On the flip side, the city was shrinking but is now in a growth mode population wise and the vacancy rate is a result of a lot of new apartment buildings being built and the slum buildings being vacated. Far too long have many, many buildings been ignored but rented as people had little choice. Now they have choice in the form of new buildings all over the City and the derelict buildings with little investment are now being left vacant.

Long term, i think this is good. Hopefully we will see those without the willingness or ability to invest in the older uptown buildings be forced to sell the buildings due to low vacancy to be bought by those with the willingness and ability to invest in those buildings. The opportunities are unlike any other City in this province for a urban downtown living feel. High ceilings and loft spaces abound and could be a real attraction with the right investment and synergy that could happen once it starts to snowball.

Thank you - great comments!

Southpaw78 · #**111** Posted **Jan 23, 2014, 6:03 PM**

So I just decided to go to the horse's mouth and send SJWD a message on their Facebook page. Looks like things are still moving forward as I got this reply:

"Thanks for your continued interest - not to worry, things are still progressing with the Coast Guard developer, we are completing some engineering analysis."

Whaler · #**112** Posted **Jan 24, 2014, 2:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Southpaw78

So I just decided to go to the horse's mouth and send SJWD a message on their Facebook page. Looks like things are still moving forward as I got this reply:

"Thanks for your continued interest - not to worry, things are still progressing with the Coast Guard developer, we are completing some engineering analysis."

I was told by a good source within that the developer has backed away.
They don't want that message out there so they will feed you this crap!

UptownJeff · #**113** Posted **Jan 24, 2014, 10:56 PM**

Sources....we all think we have the best ones - I've heard so many rumours from so called "good" sources on this and other things going on - none of which have happened by the way - that I have resigned myself to not believing ANYTHING that ANYONE says until I see it officially announced!

Southpaw78 · #**114** Posted **Jan 25, 2014, 3:26 PM**

Well for what it's worth, here is their response when I asked about a timeline for an announcement.

"At this point in time we have three engineering firms conducting three separate tasks on the site, weather conditions do affect progress – completion of tasks will take several weeks. The results will determine an announcement date."

Whaler · #**115** Posted **Jan 27, 2014, 6:34 PM**

Well if you don't like rumours then how about some facts?
SJWD had the manager quite! I am related so I know that for sure...fact.
They have been telling us in the papers and radio that they were just weeks before an announcement. This has been going on for 3 + years now.....fact.

HardTruth · #**116** Posted **Feb 5, 2014, 9:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjuser23

On the flip side, the city was shrinking but is now in a growth mode population wise

False.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjuser23

the vacancy rate is a result of a lot of new apartment buildings being built and the slum buildings being vacated.

False.

Here is what CMHC had to say in their latest rental market report for Saint John.

"In Saint John, rental market trends have been notably different as demonstrated by the
respective level of construction activity. Rental starts in Moncton and Fredericton from the
start of 2010 to the end of 2013 totalled 1,797 and 975 units, respectively. Over the same
period, only 561 rental starts were recorded in Saint John. Despite limited construction
activity, the vacancy rate reached 11.4 per cent in Saint John. This is the second highest
rate in the province."

(the highest rate for a metro area in Canada)

"While the higher vacancy rates in Moncton and Fredericton stemmed
from elevated supply levels, the rise in Saint John can be attributed to weak demand.
Slow population growth and relative stability in the average MLS® sale price continued to draw
current and potential renters to homeownership."

Please check out the facts first before making grand statements.

The other aspects of any potential development on the Coast Guard site would undoubtedly include office space and hotel rooms.

The office vacancy in the city is disturbingly high at 20% and our hotel room vacancy is the highest of the "big 3" cities in NB.

If I was considering investing many multiple millions into this type of market I think that information would make me crap my pants.

Links:

CMHC Rental Report, Saint John

CBC News, Office Vacancy

NB Tourism Hotel Vacancy

nwalbert · #**117** Posted **Feb 6, 2014, 1:09 PM**

Hopefully an update on this project is provided soon.... even if its more delays it would be good to get an idea where they are at.

It is easy to be negative but hopefully patience will lead to a quality development that is delivered when the time is right and hit a hot market to help in the success of the development.

Lots of positive signs in the city. Low unemployment and population growth.

MonctonRad · #**118** Posted **Feb 6, 2014, 1:41 PM**

Yes, HardTruth is quite a Debbie Downer. After you read his posts, you feel like jumping off the Harbour Bridge!!

I'm also looking forward to hearing positive news about this development....

Helladog · #**119** Posted **Feb 8, 2014, 1:31 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by HardTruth

Originally Posted by sjuser23
On the flip side, the city was shrinking but is now in a growth mode population wise

False.

2009-2012:
Saint John (N.B.) 127.4 128.0 128.5 128.9

Link: Census Canada

HardTruth · #**120** Posted **Feb 9, 2014, 1:44 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Helladog

2009-2012:
Saint John (N.B.) 127.4 128.0 128.5 128.9

Link: Census Canada

He was specifically referring to the city, not the metro area. And yes I suppose the city is technically growing according to most recent estimates.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Saint John County (city of SJ plus a bit extra)

2008 - 2012

76,468____ 76,926____ 77,104____ 77,270____ 77,318

----------------------------------------------------------------------

That being said the growth is slowing down and between 2011 and 2012 it was a mere 48 person increase.
That's small enough for me to think of the population state in the city as "stagnant" and not "in growth mode" as sjuser was stating.
And if you would follow the trend it would imply that between 2012 and 2013 there would be either 0 growth or negative.

(data from StatsCan CANSIM table 051-0052)