Self-driving vehicles

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Why would pickup trucks be holdouts?

Cultural.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

We've already hit 400km range and 30-60 minute recharge times; that alone is enough for at least 90% of the home market. Very few home users of cars regularly need to travel more than 400km in a day; and when they do, they're typically not doing it all at once, so there's plenty of opportunity for a half hour of down time in there. Even for a road trip to Toronto; just stop at a rest stop and grab a burger, not that big of a pain to have to kill 30 minutes.

Moreover, there's critical mass of improvement now. Billions of dollars in development and major upgrades well on their way in the pipeline; ranges of up to 1000km, improved battery compositions, substantially reduced capital costs, dramatically expanded network of fast charging stations (there will be hundreds of them in Ontario alone by the end of this decade).

The story of electric cars in 2016 is looking a lot like the story of smartphones in 2005 or desktop computers in 1985: a niche product that is rapidly destroying obstacles to widespread use. Back in 1985 only like 5% of households in North America had a desktop computer and pace of adoption was slow with many questioning why households would want to buy one... but anyone watching the trends thirty years ago could have seen it coming. There's a reason IBM invested billions in the development of the x86 PC in the early 1980s, just like how companies across the world are investing billions in electric cars right now.

The half hour of down time math works great when there are very few electric cars but what how would the infrastructure work if all cars were electric. Imagine your average 401 rest stop where it takes about 2 minutes fill up your car. If that will now take 30 minutes we will need 15 times more capacity and that assumes an equal range.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Electric cars have been around since the early days of automobiles, yet their major weakness, battery storage has not been solved.

It may not be completely solved yet, but we have come a long way. We can actually thank smart phones for improvements in battery technology as they to want smaller, lighter batteries that will charge rapidly and last longer between charges. Now we have to scale those improved batteries up to gas tank sized batteries that will power a car. Charging times may never be as fast as filling your tank with gas, but most of the charging is done overnight, while you are sleeping, and if the range gets above 600 km, that's over 5 hours of driving, so it isn't unreasonable to stop, stretch your legs, go to the bathroom and grab a bite to eat. Driving to Florida in 2 days might not be feasible, but I don't think many people do that.

These cars do not have the range and recharging is too slow, so it will remain a niche market.

It may currently be a niche market, but just because we currently have those limitations doesn't mean we always will. Today's electric cars are much better than the EV1 20 years ago, which was much better than the electric cars in the early days of automobiles.

I cannot afford to have two vehicles, one for city use, and another to allow me to travel further. I think this applies to most people.

Most families do have 2 cars and one is usually only used for short trips. For those who do only have 1 car, there are solutions to this if you think outside the box. Most people only go on long road trips a couple times a year. You could use the money you saved from using electricity instead of gas to rent a car (or take the train) for those few trips. If you regularly drive long distances, then an electric car isn't for you, yet, but you are in the minority.

And like most batteries, they have a finite life. Do these become throw away cars because of the high cost of replacing the batteries?

But so do many other car parts and fluids. Do you throw away a car just because you need to change a small part, fluid or filter? The money saved by never having to change engine fluids (oil, transmission fluid, coolant) and filters will go a long way towards the cost of changing the battery. As more people drive electric cars, the cost of replacing the battery will come down.

[zzptichka]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The half hour of down time math works great when there are very few electric cars but what how would the infrastructure work if all cars were electric. Imagine your average 401 rest stop where it takes about 2 minutes fill up your car. If that will now take 30 minutes we will need 15 times more capacity and that assumes an equal range.

You don't need more than 1 parking spot to charge a car as opposed to a huge gas station with underground tanks, cashiers and stuff.
Also, Timmies and McD will love electric cars.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

We've already hit 400km range and 30-60 minute recharge times; that alone is enough for at least 90% of the home market. Very few home users of cars regularly need to travel more than 400km in a day; and when they do, they're typically not doing it all at once, so there's plenty of opportunity for a half hour of down time in there. Even for a road trip to Toronto; just stop at a rest stop and grab a burger, not that big of a pain to have to kill 30 minutes.

Moreover, there's critical mass of improvement now. Billions of dollars in development and major upgrades well on their way in the pipeline; ranges of up to 1000km, improved battery compositions, substantially reduced capital costs, dramatically expanded network of fast charging stations (there will be hundreds of them in Ontario alone by the end of this decade).

The story of electric cars in 2016 is looking a lot like the story of smartphones in 2005 or desktop computers in 1985: a niche product that is rapidly destroying obstacles to widespread use. Back in 1985 only like 5% of households in North America had a desktop computer and pace of adoption was slow with many questioning why households would want to buy one... but anyone watching the trends thirty years ago could have seen it coming. There's a reason IBM invested billions in the development of the x86 PC in the early 1980s, just like how companies across the world are investing billions in electric cars right now.

A Tesla takes 9.5 hours to charge in a dryer plug and 52 hours to charge with a regular plug. Not sure what car takes 30 minutes to charge (that would certainly be a breakthrough).

400km doesn't get you very far in most of North America, particularly if you don't want to plan to fully drain your battery and plan for a contingency (traffic delays, accident). It would preclude a lot of day trips Ottawans often take as well as getting as far as Toronto or Quebec City (which are straightforward with a regular car).

Those improvements you're talking about are all hypothetical. I agree that when cars cost about the same as gas cars and can go 1000km on a single charge they might be widely adopted, but that is an unknown amount of time in the future (if ever).

There were 6,933 electric car sales in Canada last year, compared to overall sales of 1,898,485 cars and light trucks. Getting from a 0.36% market share to a significant portion of the market requires years of exponential growth. Your computer analogy is is an interesting one, but I don't think it is 1985 when millions of PCs were being sold at various price points and for various uses, I think is is more like the early 70s where computers had a niche market among hobbyists.

[zzptichka]

I've been thinking the other day about electric cars, batteries and stuff, and it's amazing how many new opportunities they offer.
When every household has an electric car (or battery on wheel from power company point of view) and when they all are connected into one grid you can do some great stuff with it. You can automatically charge it at night or during the day when electricity is cheap, use stored power in your household during evenings when it's expensive in the grid, you can sell it back into grid when price is right. Power companies can better control and even out power consumption in the grid and manage base load. With emergence of solar and wind generation this will be huge.
There will be some revolutionary things happening in the power industry in the next 20 years.

[zzptichka]

Originally Posted by acottawa

A Tesla takes 9.5 hours to charge in a dryer plug and 52 hours to charge with a regular plug. Not sure what car takes 30 minutes to charge (that would certainly be a breakthrough).

400km doesn't get you very far in most of North America, particularly if you don't want to plan to fully drain your battery and plan for a contingency (traffic delays, accident). It would preclude a lot of day trips Ottawans often take as well as getting as far as Toronto or Quebec City (which are straightforward with a regular car).

Those improvements you're talking about are all hypothetical. I agree that when cars cost about the same as gas cars and can go 1000km on a single charge they might be widely adopted, but that is an unknown amount of time in the future (if ever).

There were 6,933 electric car sales in Canada last year, compared to overall sales of 1,898,485 cars and light trucks. Getting from a 0.36% market share to a significant portion of the market requires years of exponential growth. Your computer analogy is is an interesting one, but I don't think it is 1985 when millions of PCs were being sold at various price points and for various uses, I think is is more like the early 70s where computers had a niche market among hobbyists.

That's what newspapers were saying about WWW 10-15 years ago.

[jimmyjones]

Originally Posted by acottawa

A Tesla takes 9.5 hours to charge in a dryer plug and 52 hours to charge with a regular plug. Not sure what car takes 30 minutes to charge (that would certainly be a breakthrough).

It's the super charger network that Tesla enabled 270 km of range with 30 minutes of charging https://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/su...er?redirect=no .

I always find it strange that people can't see the long term trends of technology improving over time and extrapolate. It's always the same arguments as to why "X" (Computers/SSD's/Cell Phones/Solar Panels/Electric Cars etc. etc.) will never hit the mainstream.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Cultural.

True. Many who drive trucks want it to be as noisy as possible. Maybe they could put in speakers that generate engine noise. LOL

On a somewhat related note, I have often thought that a well designed, electric drag racer could blow the gas powered ones out of the water, while whispering down the track. No need to spin the tires to get the revs up, you get better traction when the tires aren't spinning. They would probably quickly disqualify electric racers because of their massive advantage.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by jimmyjones

I always find it strange that people can't see the long term trends of technology improving over time and extrapolate. It's always the same arguments as to why "X" (Computers/SSD's/Cell Phones/Solar Panels/Electric Cars etc. etc.) will never hit the mainstream.

Because that only works for some types of technologies. As I said in an earlier post, some technologies (nuclear fusion, flying cars, maglev trains, space colonies) have been imminent since at least the 1950s but never received widespread adoption because future extrapolation of cost or technological improvement didn't work. From Sputnik to Apollo 11 took 12 years. People that extrapolated the future of space technology in 1969 based on 12 years of amazing progress are probably disappointed by what the "future" looks like in the present.

To extrapolate a future where electric cars are widespread, fast-charging stations have to become ubiquitous (who will pay for that?), the price of electricity has to fall significantly or the price of gasoline has to rise significantly (100km of charge costs about $3 in ontario, 100km of gasoline costs under $2 in a smallish car), batteries have to double or triple their capacity for a comparable size and weight, and the price of electric cars has to fall by about 50%.

Is it possible these things will happen? Yes. Is it probable? Not sure.

[lrt's friend]

When you really think about it, when comparing the gas automobile with an electric automobile, we are now around 1915 or 1920 for electric cars. The lack of infrastructure for charging and lack of range on the vehicles. If that can be overcome, then the world is the market. If not, then it will remain a toy for the minority who has money to pay for it.

You cannot compare computers, cell phones and the Internet to electric cars. Cars are mechanical therefore they use a certain amount of energy. You can improve the efficiency to a degree but it is not as same with the other technological devices mentioned, which are controlled by circuit boards and telecommunications. The potential for technological improvement has been enormous because they are not limited by being mechanical. So the same amount of investment to double the efficiency of a car, may produce a 10,000% improvement in the efficiency or speed of a computer. It is this that has driven the enormous success of computers, cell phones and the Internet.

Even if we got the charging time down to 30 minutes, what does that mean on Highway 401? We need stations with hundreds of charging spots? In that respect, replacing a current gas station with a parking spot is not what reality would be with a wholesale adoption of electric cars.

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by acottawa

.
.
the price of electricity has to fall significantly or the price of gasoline has to rise significantly (100km of charge costs about $3 in ontario, 100km of gasoline costs under $2 in a smallish car), batteries have to double or triple their capacity for a comparable size and weight, and the price of electric cars has to fall by about 50%.

Is it possible these things will happen? Yes. Is it probable? Not sure.

???

I have a "smallish" car and it gets about 600km on the highway with 45l of gas... thats about $7.50 per 100km... significantly more expensive than electricity (assuming the electricity figure is accurate).

[zzptichka]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

When you really think about it, when comparing the gas automobile with an electric automobile, we are now around 1915 or 1920 for electric cars. The lack of infrastructure for charging and lack of range on the vehicles. If that can be overcome, then the world is the market. If not, then it will remain a toy for the minority who has money to pay for it.

You cannot compare computers, cell phones and the Internet to electric cars. Cars are mechanical therefore they use a certain amount of energy. You can improve the efficiency to a degree but it is not as same with the other technological devices mentioned, which are controlled by circuit boards and telecommunications. The potential for technological improvement has been enormous because they are not limited by being mechanical. So the same amount of investment to double the efficiency of a car, may produce a 10,000% improvement in the efficiency or speed of a computer. It is this that has driven the enormous success of computers, cell phones and the Internet.

Even if we got the charging time down to 30 minutes, what does that mean on Highway 401? We need stations with hundreds of charging spots? In that respect, replacing a current gas station with a parking spot is not what reality would be with a wholesale adoption of electric cars.

Damn. I hope somebody calls Norway, Netherlands and other European countries that plan to ban selling new non-electric cars by 2025. Before it's too late!

[HighwayStar]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

When you really think about it, when comparing the gas automobile with an electric automobile, we are now around 1915 or 1920 for electric cars. The lack of infrastructure for charging and lack of range on the vehicles. If that can be overcome, then the world is the market. If not, then it will remain a toy for the minority who has money to pay for it.

But first, we really need to have an adult conversation about where all that electricity comes from.

Burning more coal?

Destroying more of the environment in China to build wind turbines:
http://www.bccrwe.com/index.php/8-ne...or-environment

Massive expansion of the electrical grid?? None of that is free.

Cars may be "zero emission", but the carbon footprint to get that electricity to the car can be significant.

[AndyMEng]

Originally Posted by acottawa

A Tesla takes 9.5 hours to charge in a dryer plug and 52 hours to charge with a regular plug. Not sure what car takes 30 minutes to charge (that would certainly be a breakthrough).

400km doesn't get you very far in most of North America, particularly if you don't want to plan to fully drain your battery and plan for a contingency (traffic delays, accident). It would preclude a lot of day trips Ottawans often take as well as getting as far as Toronto or Quebec City (which are straightforward with a regular car).

Those improvements you're talking about are all hypothetical. I agree that when cars cost about the same as gas cars and can go 1000km on a single charge they might be widely adopted, but that is an unknown amount of time in the future (if ever).

There were 6,933 electric car sales in Canada last year, compared to overall sales of 1,898,485 cars and light trucks. Getting from a 0.36% market share to a significant portion of the market requires years of exponential growth. Your computer analogy is is an interesting one, but I don't think it is 1985 when millions of PCs were being sold at various price points and for various uses, I think is is more like the early 70s where computers had a niche market among hobbyists.

I found this article from May 7th, 2016 stating that there are approximately 36,000 orders for the Model 3. Which is quite a few more (one might say...exponentially more?) than last year?
https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum...-source-google

[zzptichka]

I think it would be interesting to see how electric cars compare to emergence of first gasoline cars in the beginning of XX century.
They were also seen as something for hobbyists for the first ~20 years and people were skeptical they would ever come close to replacing horses. Until Ford Model T came around (what Tesla is doing today)
They had to clear much higher hurdles back then - mass gasoline production, gas stations network, roads, parts, mechanics, traffic laws, etc. Most of that we already have.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by zzptichka

Damn. I hope somebody calls Norway, Netherlands and other European countries that plan to ban selling new non-electric cars by 2025. Before it's too late!

There is a difference between a proposal from a "handful" of politicians and a law doing so.
http://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/ho...5-news-report/

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by AndyMEng

I found this article from May 7th, 2016 stating that there are approximately 36,000 orders for the Model 3. Which is quite a few more (one might say...exponentially more?) than last year?
https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum...-source-google

Interesting.

I wonder what the ratio of reservations to deliveries is? There was someone on one of these boards that put in a reservation for a tesla but also bought a condo without charging facilities.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by zzptichka

Damn. I hope somebody calls Norway, Netherlands and other European countries that plan to ban selling new non-electric cars by 2025. Before it's too late!

Interesting but that has not been put into law. Also, Europe has a much more developed alternative transportation network AND distances are much shorter.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

???

I have a "smallish" car and it gets about 600km on the highway with 45l of gas... thats about $7.50 per 100km... significantly more expensive than electricity (assuming the electricity figure is accurate).

Sorry, maybe my math is wrong.

The electricity figure was based on the current cost in Ontario (mid peak at the time) and what tesla says its energy efficiency is.