The Future of Canada and its regions....

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Atlantic Canada will continue to struggle with the notable exception of Halifax. Their quickly aging population and very slow overall population growth will reinforce their reputation as quaint, picturesque, and a place to move from.

Quebec will continue to do well and it`s fortunes will increase led by Montreal which has hit it`s stride. The provincial finances are finally back in order and the province is again seeing more immigrants and crucially more of it`s young are staying put and many returning.


Ontario will do well as it is the natural place for immigrants and it has the fastest growing population in the country. It will ween itself off it manufacturing backbone {although it will still always be important to the provinces economy} but it`s huge high tech sector will more than compensate. Toronto will continue to roar ahead and it will become even more prominent than it is now and it`s over flow of people to other areas will help them which is happening now as many leave for more affordable and liveable alternatives outside the GGH such as London and Windsor. Ottawa with it`s high tech and endless government largess will always do well.


Manitoba and Sask will just conitnue doing `OK` with no big boom or busts but the poverty and crime plaging their huge Native populations will be a challenge.


Alberta I am far less optimistic about. Alberta is a natural resources economy based primarily on oil............the product that everyone loves to hate. It`s glory days are over and though will be needed for at least 100 years it`s primary usage in transportation will decline pricipitously. Alberta and Albertans just can`t get their heads around the idea that oil is a dying commodity and the return of another oil boom will not materialise, ever.


BC is an open book. Certainly the northern areas will boom due to the LNG but Vancouver is in for a rough ride, at least in the short term. It`s reliance on a real estate fuelded economy has greatly hurt the city`s other economic sectors. The outrageous price of housing will coninue to force the young and educated to flee the region and others not willing to move there. BC`s biggest economic challenge is it`s critical shortage of labour made almost exclusively by the fact that workers can`t afford to live there especially young ones. A huge crash in the price of housing is needed to hold those precious workers and entice new businesses but it`s short-term effects could be devestating.

Interesting, I disagree with a few of these.

For one thing, I think Toronto's growth will end up leveling off. Much as has occurred in New York City (which is growing quite slowly now), eventually size becomes an impediment rather than an opportunity for city's growth. As congestion, costs, and so on rise with the city's population, people begin to look elsewhere. So Toronto will remain the most important city in Canada, but it has a peak to hit. That being said, I don't think it's all that close to its peak yet.

Another thing, you say Saskatchewan will continue doing just okay. This surprises me, considering Saskatchewan is booming right now haha. I have no idea if this is at all sustainable, but just caught my eye.

And finally, I think BC will be okay too. Housing prices are already retreating, and I'm confident this will continue to progress. If anything, I'm surprised at how smoothly it's going. We'll end up with a correction which will help BC attract new companies and industries, and hopefully bring it back to normal - strong, but organic, growth.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by zahav

I agree Toronto will consolidate its role as the real national capital (sorry no offence Ottawa), but it is our London, or Paris, or Tokyo. Those countries have other important centres but have a clear main city too. I am not sure why people are offended or dislike that fact, it just makes sense. It means the other cities can form their own niches without trying to be the national spotlight.

It's not offensive but there are pretty substantial reasons why Toronto isn't Canada's London or Tokyo.

- Canada has relatively strong provinces. It is like the US and Australia, which also don't have a primate city. But note that most provinces do have a primate city with around half of the population (e.g. Ontario).
- Toronto is not Canada's national capital.
- The #2 city in Canada isn't much smaller than the #1. Montreal is around 2/3 as large as Toronto. London is more like 3-4x the size of #2. Montreal is not Canada's Guadalajara or Lyon.
- Canada is geographically much larger than most other countries. The population would not be very well-served by centralization.
- Toronto is growing quickly but so are a bunch of other Canadian cities. Toronto's share of national immigration used to be higher than it is today.

[Pinus]

Loving reading all the pessimism with regards to Manitoba's future here.I guess we will be dead in a decade or so.

#FeelingtheCanadianloVe
#Ourfutureisbleak
#Planforthefuneral

[ssiguy]

Manitoba dead in a decade or so? I doubt it.

When I said MB/SK will do `OK`, I meant it in a good way especially Manitoba. Manitoba has the best prospects of any of the Prarie provinces and it will be cventered on Winnipeg. MB has hydro and food which will always be needed and doesn`t suffer from the wild swings of commodity prices. Winnipeg has a very diverse economy and the only western city with a decent manufacturing base. The Peg is a key transportation hub, is getting good immigration numbers, is a government town, is still very affordable, and has a very robust cultural sector.


Toronto will soar ahead as it is Canada`s `downtown` and in English Canada, it`s economic, financial, political, media, and cultural dominance is total.........there is no second place.

As far as BC, I`m actually quite confident about it`s long-term prospects but with the caveat that is must have a major housing correction to make the place, and especially Vancouver, an option for immigrants, migrants, and to even keep it`s current young people. The skyhigh real estate also greatly effects it`s other economic opportunities and makes Vancouver unattractive as a potential investment for new businesses as the land is too expensive and very crucially, they can`t find the skilled labour they need.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Interesting, I disagree with a few of these.

For one thing, I think Toronto's growth will end up leveling off. Much as has occurred in New York City (which is growing quite slowly now), eventually size becomes an impediment rather than an opportunity for city's growth. As congestion, costs, and so on rise with the city's population, people begin to look elsewhere. So Toronto will remain the most important city in Canada, but it has a peak to hit. That being said, I don't think it's all that close to its peak yet.

I strongly disagree. Toronto is far more influential in Canada than New York is to the US. Also, a VERY big difference between the 2 is that people often leave NY for warmer climates in The South or West whereas people will move to Toronto for it`s more moderate climate. New York is one of the US`s colder and snowier cities while Toronto is one of Canada`s mildest and least snowy.

To change direction for a minute...……..one thing that we haven`t touched upon that will effect all regions of the country without exception, is the continued decline of rural/small town Canada. Our rural areas are stagnating at best and aging very rapidly and have little economic prospects except for a few milder placed areas where retirees may consider moving to escape the big city rat-race.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I strongly disagree. Toronto is far more influential in Canada than New York is to the US. Also, a VERY big difference between the 2 is that people often leave NY for warmer climates in The South or West whereas people will move to Toronto for it`s more moderate climate. New York is one of the US`s colder and snowier cities while Toronto is one of Canada`s mildest and least snowy.

To change direction for a minute...……..one thing that we haven`t touched upon that will effect all regions of the country without exception, is the continued decline of rural/small town Canada. Our rural areas are stagnating at best and aging very rapidly and have little economic prospects except for a few milder placed areas where retirees may consider moving to escape the big city rat-race.

I could see rural areas actually helping out our small and medium sized cities. Say, if a rural area in southern Alberta began to hollow out, sure some people would move to Calgary, but maybe some would move to Lethbridge because it's closer.

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

Another thing, you say Saskatchewan will continue doing just okay. This surprises me, considering Saskatchewan is booming right now haha. I have no idea if this is at all sustainable, but just caught my eye.

Moody's recently gave Saskatchewan the highest credit rating available to a Canadian Province, AAA
Obviously those tracking Sask economy think positively about the province's future prospects.

http://paherald.sk.ca/2018/09/12/sas...credit-rating/

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by GlassCity

For one thing, I think Toronto's growth will end up leveling off. Much as has occurred in New York City (which is growing quite slowly now), eventually size becomes an impediment rather than an opportunity for city's growth. As congestion, costs, and so on rise with the city's population, people begin to look elsewhere. So Toronto will remain the most important city in Canada, but it has a peak to hit. That being said, I don't think it's all that close to its peak yet.

I think Toronto is going to peak at under 10 million people (assuming we use the 6.5 million people metric of the GTA right now).

Not only is Toronto very behind on transportation infrastructure, but I've seen the most optimistic plans for Toronto's infrastructure - the kind of long range planning that, even in our wildest dreams, won't be realized until past 2050 - and even they are too parochial in scope and won't suffice for a developed world megacity.

This:



is not the transportation network that will vault Toronto past the 10 million mark. It is way too hub-and-spoke, focused on a single point (Union Station) and doesn't acknowledge that every city of over 10 million in the developed world has a large downtown with major, region-wide transportation nodes distributed throughout (e.g. Tokyo, Paris and London have several major train stations and a grid of subway lines; New York has 2 major train stations plus the WTC PATH/subway hub in Lower Manhattan). The exception to this - Los Angeles - has a quiltwork of freeways, that Toronto is (rightly) even less inclined to do.

There are other limitations to Toronto's growth, including the fact that semi-detached single family homes within walking distance of the CBD are a limitation to upward growth, and the fact that immigration will probably taper off in the developed world as AI begins to take over a lot of jobs.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Pinus

Loving reading all the pessimism with regards to Manitoba's future here.I guess we will be dead in a decade or so.

Manitoba is the poster child for how hard these predictions can be. From 1996-2001 Winnipeg was hardly growing and many people predicted that the city would decline from then on. From 2011-2016 it was one of the fastest growing cities in Canada.

Demographically I think the difference mostly came down to federal policies on provincially sponsored immigration. Not fertility rates or some clearly-defined economic trend like Alberta's oil boom (which people also generally do a bad job of predicting).

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Toronto will soar ahead as it is Canada`s `downtown` and in English Canada, it`s economic, financial, political, media, and cultural dominance is total.........there is no second place.

English Canada, maybe, but I am interested to see what happens to Montreal in the upcoming few decades. It finally seems to be regaining its footing after the economic stagnation caused by the separatist movement, and right now the city is absolutely booming.

It won't be the economic heartland of Canada, but I could see Montreal regaining its place as the cultural centre of this country. It might become similar to Italy where Rome is arguably more important city but Milan is the cultural capital.

[Vixx]

Just my random predictions:

BC: See's modest growth in the short to medium term. Much of it depends on projects like LNG commencing, but otherwise real estate continues to cool down. Vancouver continues to grow but see's a brain drain with many young professionals opting to leave elsewhere due to the relatively low wages and huge cost of living. Many BC expats will be looking to return home and will be faced with a dilemma on whether to give Vancouver another shot or head elsewhere in BC, with many choosing the latter and giving places like Kamloops/Kelowna/Nanaimo a population boost.

AB: Oil and energy continue to dominate the economy as will the worlds hunger for it. Eventually, demand for oil will slowly go down but not for a very, very long time. The province continues to look for diversification of it's economy, however oil/energy will continue to be the province's backbone. Edmonton and Calgary will continue to grow at a relatively healthy pace and I can see the two cities going back and forth population wise. In the short term, Calgary continues to struggle a little more economically but will get a grip of the situation soon and Edmonton continues to do well in diversifying the local economy, however struggles more so then Calgary in city planning as both march toward 2 million residents each.

SK: Economically, Saskatchewan continues to do relatively well but will not see a major boom for awhile. I can see the province becoming more attractive to new immigrants, and more of them choosing to settle in Saskatoon and Regina then before. Saskatoon continues to slowly pull ahead as the province's main city, however Regina is able to pull its own weight and will be chugging along right behind Saskatoon. In the long term, both cities will struggle with making "big city" decisions (ex transit) as they march towards 500,000 and might see a few hiccups.

MB: Manitoba continues to see modest but stable growth economically. More of the province's rural areas empty out and start to head toward Winnipeg (or elsewhere). Winnipeg continues to become a more attractive city for immigrants and starts to see an uptick in population as the city quickly approaches that 1 million mark. The city will continue to be marred in social problems in the short to medium term that might get a bit worse before they get better as the city grows. On the flip side, the city see's a more concrete effort in urbanization and rejuvenating long neglected areas.

ON: Continues to dominate nationally. The province's overall share of population see's a slight decrease but numbers wise continues to grow at a rapid and healthy rate. Manufacturing continues to take a hit and may impact things in the short to medium term, but long term won't be as detrimental as some believe, although manufacturing will still be an important part of the economy. Toronto will continue to rapidly grow, but in the medium to long term will slow down a bit as more young professionals begin to look elsewhere for work and new immigrants choose to settle elsewhere in the province or country as the cost of living climbs in the GTA. However, Toronto will continue to dominate on a national level in most categories. Ottawa continues being Ottawa, with healthy and stable numbers both economically and population wise. The city continues to learn how to wear its big boy city pants a little better and starts to truly feel like a big city with LRT coming online shortly and some big projects in the works.

QC: Discovers a newfound confidence amid shaking off the dark cloud of separatism along with the general economic well-being. The province see's all around good numbers, however pertinent issues such as healthcare and high taxes will continue to be a hot topic that might not see little if any resolution anytime soon (we'll see how the CAQ do). Montreal continues to see strong population growth, however I suspect real estate might slowly creep up after having been comparatively cheap compared to the likes of Toronto and Vancouver for so long.

NB: Little change in the short to long term. The province will continue to stagnate and barring some major project (Energy East) that comes to fruition, I don't see much changing overall. Moncton will continue to take the reigns as Moncton's premier city and will see much better overall numbers compared to the likes of Fredericton and Saint John's. I think in the long term, Saint John might see a bit of a renaissance as a destination that is cheap, relatively "off the radar" and with good urban bones that could attract hipsters and the like.

PEI: More or less the same, really.

Nova Scotia: As a whole, I don't see the province doing very well. Any and all growth will be coming from Halifax, which will pretty much be putting the province on it's back. The rural areas will continue to empty out and pour into Halifax. Halifax as a city will continue to grow and do well and will continue to experience relatively solid urbanization and good projects to compliment the city's strong urban bones. Halifax, at least to me, is a ray of hope in an otherwise harsh landscape (in the economic sense) and will solidify itself as Atlantic Canada's main hub.

NFLD: Short to medium term - not pretty. The province will continue to flirt with bankruptcy but things will, eventually, start to stabilize and Newfoundland will reinvent itself. St. John's in the future will experience a little bit of growth but is otherwise shackled to the fortunes of the province and how the province may or may not pick itself up.

[Hali87]

Something that might end up saving NB is if it is able to harness its industrial resources (such as Irving's forestry division and McCain food processing) to become a major player in the emerging cannabis industry. There could be a lot of opportunities there if they play their cards right. This will undoubtedly be a factor in BC's economy as well and may help to offset a cooling-down of the real estate market. In general, areas that are particularly well-suited to cannabis production will have a new advantage and areas that are struggling and have a lot of underused infrastructure may be able to repurpose it for cannabis production/processing. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

More generally I think that some population and economic activity will trickle down/shift from Toronto and Vancouver towards a handful of mid-sized/second-tier cities such as Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Halifax, Hamilton, and KWC (among others), as their cost of living and commute times become increasingly attractive in comparison and they are seen as "millenial-friendly" in terms of costs, opportunities, and overall culture. Edmonton, Calgary, and Ottawa may also fall into this category, and Montreal may have some similarities if they can keep housing affordable and infrastructure on-point. Toronto and Vancouver will continue to grow and prosper but Toronto in particular will struggle to keep up with its infrastructure and will become increasingly politically polarized, Vancouver will be a considerably more conservative place, politically, than it historically has been, while the midsize-cities will tend to skew more liberal-millenial in terms of political opinions and priorities. Immigration in the big 3 remains strongest, but the other cities are able to attract a bigger share of migrants from within Canada, including first-gen immigrants that had initially settled in other areas.

I imagine there will also be a growing Native presence in many cities, which in some cases will manifest itself as a noticeably greater Native influence/presence in the public sphere and general culture, and in others as uncomfortable socio-political tension. I expect that the Prairie cities and Thunder Bay will have the most challenges on this front, while Ottawa, Halifax, Cape Breton, SW BC and the Okanagan in particular will start/continue to integrate/express more Native cultural features. I could see one or two mid-sized cities in Southern Ontario (Brantford?) being like this as well.

[EspionNoir]

They say Winnipeg has great prospect, and I hope this is the case. Hopefully Winnipeg will become what was promised a century ago.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Vixx

QC: Discovers a newfound confidence amid shaking off the dark cloud of separatism along with the general economic well-being.

Originally Posted by EpicPonyTime

English Canada, maybe, but I am interested to see what happens to Montreal in the upcoming few decades. It finally seems to be regaining its footing after the economic stagnation caused by the separatist movement, and right now the city is absolutely booming.

That's an interesting view. We just got elections here, and the only federalist party was rejected by francophone Québécois to levels never witnessed before historically. Meanwhile the two openly sovereigntist parties (without even needing to consider the CAQ's share of sovereigntist support) got, only between the two of them, a high enough share of the vote to be in majority government territory (high 30%s). (They almost merged recently, but in the end did not.)

I think the economy going well is a much larger phenomenon than what you make it sound like. Also, it may (and likely will) continue to do well under the new "nationalistic" government we now have.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Vixx

NB: Little change in the short to long term. The province will continue to stagnate and barring some major project (Energy East) that comes to fruition, I don't see much changing overall. Moncton will continue to take the reigns as Moncton's premier city and will see much better overall numbers compared to the likes of Fredericton and Saint John's. I think in the long term, Saint John might see a bit of a renaissance as a destination that is cheap, relatively "off the radar" and with good urban bones that could attract hipsters and the like.

PEI: More or less the same, really.

Couple notes:

• NB isn't really stagnating right now. Its population is increasing (up to 772K, growing by roughly 750/quarter, thanks to increased immigration) and its urban centres are becoming larger and stronger. It's rural NB that's hollowing out.
• NB's economy has become diversified in the past few years, more-so than before, thanks to high tech industries mostly.
• Saint John is already seeing a renaissance as the Uptown is being gentrified and rejuvenated. Hipsters are already flocking to the area and have been for some years now. Moncton is no doubt the key city at this point, though.
• PEI has seen probably the best and most stable growth in the Maritimes outside of Halifax. It's really on a good roll right now.

Originally Posted by Hali87

Something that might end up saving NB is if it is able to harness its industrial resources (such as Irving's forestry division and McCain food processing) to become a major player in the emerging cannabis industry. There could be a lot of opportunities there if they play their cards right.

From eyetest it seems like Cannabis NB is far-and-away better organized than most other provincial cannabis bodies throughout Canada, shortages aside. Physical stores were ready far ahead of the October deadline.

I doubt the big players really get involved in cannabis but we'll have to wait and see. As I mentioned above the diversification of the economy away from being dependent on natural resources will help a ton long-term in the overall strength and growth of the province. Ten+ years ago NB was almost entirely reliant on international exports (to the US) and that sort of crashed when the US housing market crashed. Today it feels like exports and overall GDP production is a bit more even between natural resources and other factors.

The Maritimes, like other smaller centres nationwide, will continue to benefit from people relocating away from unaffordable housing in the larger centres. For the first time in a long time the Maritimes has a positive interprovincial migration rate.

[lio45]

As I mentioned already, if I didn't already have roots, I'd be extremely attracted to St. John of NB (a name for which IIRC you'll insist I spell out the "Saint" for some reason; I'm on the fence about indulging you) and would probably have relocated there already.

The fact that it happened to be economically depressed during those decades when we were collectively being complete idiots about heritage preservation and architectural integration may now be a blessing, from an architectural point of view. For example, are its core streets peppered with disastrously ugly 1970s banks and suburban-style self-standing Tim Hortons...?

(I've never been, but based on what I saw, it seems well preserved.)

[ainvan]

BC has a great future if BC can capitalize its position as Canada's gateway to Asia-Pacific.

Most of the world's most powerful economies will be in Asia-Pacific. Canada is a trading nation, and Asia-Pacific has billions of young and growing middle-income customers who will need our products.

[EspionNoir]

Originally Posted by ainvan

BC has a great future if BC can capitalize its position as Canada's gateway to Asia-Pacific.

Most of the world's most powerful economies will be in Asia-Pacific. Canada is a trading nation, and Asia-Pacific has billions of young and growing middle-income customers who will need our products.

Not bad, considering we don’t have that many people

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by lio45

As I mentioned already, if I didn't already have roots, I'd be extremely attracted to St. John of NB (a name for which IIRC you'll insist I spell out the "Saint" for some reason; I'm on the fence about indulging you) and would probably have relocated there already.

For some reason? Saint is the official spelling.

I'll just constantly refer to St. Catharines as Saint Catharines, Scarborough as Scarboro, and Kingston as Kingstown until the actual spelling of Saint John gets the respect it deserves.

Originally Posted by lio45

The fact that it happened to be economically depressed during those decades when we were collectively being complete idiots about heritage preservation and architectural integration may now be a blessing, from an architectural point of view. For example, are its core streets peppered with disastrously ugly 1970s banks and suburban-style self-standing Tim Hortons...?

Most of the Uptown was spared from widespread urbanization plans of the 1960s and 1970s. Main Street and the Valley weren't retained, though:

[wave46]

The story of a nation is told in its demographics.

The Western world came of age in an era when science and relatively liberal thinking collided. This allowed for a huge spike in growth that built the basis for the society we currently live in. This supercharged growth (especially with the baby boom and the entry of women into the workforce) gave us 50-70 years of unparalleled prosperity.

However, the tailwind we've reaped over the past 50-70 years will soon turn to a headwind. That baby boom will start drawing on the resources of the society they built. The leaders of that prosperity haven't saved for this headwind - they've gone on a debt-binge to have a party over the last 15-20 years. Indeed, looking at the budget projections of the United States government makes for grim reading. Canada, a small ship in a much bigger ocean is better prepared, but will be very much feeling the effects of this.

The other concern is that the massive gains of the 20th century won't repeat themselves. For instance, the massive increase in the life expectancy of an individual over the 20th century isn't likely to repeat itself again - we're just reaching the limits of what the human body can do physically.

While I'm not counting out the human race (we are quite clever monkeys), I'm less sanguine about the 21st century for the Western world. I would love to be proven wrong though - nothing would make me happier.

Sorry about the melancholy post.