HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Manitoba & Saskatchewan


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #261  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:53 PM
drew's Avatar
drew drew is offline
the first stamp is free
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Hippyville, Winnipeg
Posts: 7,985
Quote:
Originally Posted by roccerfeller View Post
Winnipeg about 35k less than I'd expected.
So what gives? These census numbers seem out of whack with what we what we have been expecting.

Basically it averages out that Winnipeg has grown by about 7200 people per year, where the projections seemed to expect somewhere between 10 and 15K?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #262  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:59 PM
chrisallard5454's Avatar
chrisallard5454 chrisallard5454 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 2,047
Quote:
Originally Posted by drew View Post
So what gives? These census numbers seem out of whack with what we what we have been expecting.

Basically it averages out that Winnipeg has grown by about 7200 people per year, where the projections seemed to expect somewhere between 10 and 15K?
According to Stats Can the Census is still incomplete as a lot of people didn't fill them out. People seem to suggest that the more accurate results will come in a year or so after adjustments are made. According to Stats Can Winnipeg's CMA in particular had trouble obtaining accurate results because of unwillingness to fill out the Census forms.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #263  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 6:03 PM
Winnipegger@Heart Winnipegger@Heart is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 619
How sad.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #264  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 8:36 PM
armorand93's Avatar
armorand93 armorand93 is offline
Transit Nerd
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Calgary (former Winnipegger)
Posts: 2,707
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisallard5454 View Post
Downtown exchange through Point Douglas saw an increase of over 17% population. Where as it seems a lot of population around the inner city is still fleeing to the burbs. Unfortunately it seems as if Winnipeg is going to turn into every other North American sprawlville within the next couple of decades..

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...-01-00-eng.pdf
If they're going to go suburbia on Winnipeg, they should at LEAST develop the area around Charleswood and St. Charles. Minus an mid-rise and a few megahouses south of the cemetery, theres barely been any development since at least 1977-1981 (when my mom remembers Buchanan opening). The Downs area would be an start!
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #265  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 9:16 PM
roccerfeller's Avatar
roccerfeller roccerfeller is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: BC
Posts: 2,918
Quote:
Originally Posted by drew View Post
So what gives? These census numbers seem out of whack with what we what we have been expecting.

Basically it averages out that Winnipeg has grown by about 7200 people per year, where the projections seemed to expect somewhere between 10 and 15K?
I really have no idea.

The 2010 estimates, also by Stat Can, show a huge discrepancy with Winnipeg (They had ~752k for the CMA I think)

By the end of 2015 the city has a projection at ~800k CMA; end of 2011 should have been ~ 764k

Head scratching, to say the least. These are to now be considered "official", however.

We may simply just have to wait a year to see if there were any huge discrepancies with the population results. My understanding is, the 800k CMA "adjusted" estimation (from the city in Sept. 2011) by 2015's end will be reached. Very huge discrepancy with the 2011 Stat Can results. Something is amiss. I could be wrong, as I was anticipating slightly higher numbers for most of the centres.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisallard5454 View Post
According to Stats Can the Census is still incomplete as a lot of people didn't fill them out. People seem to suggest that the more accurate results will come in a year or so after adjustments are made. According to Stats Can Winnipeg's CMA in particular had trouble obtaining accurate results because of unwillingness to fill out the Census forms.
Which is interesting. If true, I wonder why? 30k+ people would be a lot of people who are opting out.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #266  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 9:39 PM
roccerfeller's Avatar
roccerfeller roccerfeller is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: BC
Posts: 2,918
poster jeremy_haak in the Canada 2011 Census results thread noted:

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremy_haak View Post
Since the population estimates are considered more accurate and representative for population counts, most of these conclusions can't be made until the 2011 estimates are released.

Oshawa will never be incorporated with Toronto because once a CMA has been established, it cannot be removed. Only CAs can be incorporated into an adjacent CMA.

Which is something we should consider.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #267  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 11:46 PM
someone123's Avatar
someone123 someone123 is offline
hähnchenbrüstfiletstüc
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 33,677
Winnipeg's numbers seem wonky to me too and are very similar to the Halifax numbers, which are much farther off from the estimates than many other cities.

I checked the population estimate methodology ("find information" link here - http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm). If I read things correctly, for the 2006 census the population estimates were within 0.51% of the corrected census figures. Earlier estimation accuracy was similar. In other words, we can expect the population estimates to be pretty accurate. It's not hard to imagine that the preliminary census figures are off substantially.

The sad thing is that for a city like Winnipeg you're in for weeks of misguided news articles before any of these questions about the data are answered.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #268  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 12:04 AM
Tower Crane's Avatar
Tower Crane Tower Crane is offline
ABOVE people like you
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Winnipeg Manitoba
Posts: 343
The 10 Fastest

10 fastest growing CMAs

01. Calgary 12.6%
02. Edmonton 12.1%
03. Saskatoon 11.4%
04. Kelowna 10.8%
05. Moncton 9.7%
06. Vancouver 9.3%
07. Toronto 9.2%
08. Ottawa 9.1%
09. St. John's 8.8%
10. Brantford 8.7%
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #269  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 12:19 AM
Tower Crane's Avatar
Tower Crane Tower Crane is offline
ABOVE people like you
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Winnipeg Manitoba
Posts: 343
Province Population Increases. Manitoba in the middle of the Pack

Yukon 11.6%
Alberta 10.8%
Nunavut 8.3%
British Columbia 7.0%
Saskatchewan 6.7%
Ontario 5.7%
Manitoba 5.2%
Quebec 4.7%
Prince Edward Island 3.2%
New Brunswick 2.9%
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.8%
Nova Scotia 0.9%
Northwest Territories 0.0%
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #270  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 1:10 AM
Winnipegger@Heart Winnipegger@Heart is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 619
Saskatchewan is making us its bitch.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #271  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 1:24 AM
Bdog's Avatar
Bdog Bdog is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 2,228
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winnipegger@Heart View Post
Saskatchewan is making us its bitch.
Yeah, 6.7% growth vs. 5.2% - it's clear they've really bent us over now...
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #272  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 1:27 AM
Spocket's Avatar
Spocket Spocket is offline
Back from the dead
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 3,505
The estimates are , in fact , closer to the truth in all probability .
There are a number of factors involved but you can get a better idea of the population by looking at job creation , average household size , trends , etc. than a simple count . The problem with a simple head count is that some people move , some people don't realize their participation is mandatory , kids are born , and a million other factors .
Census counts give you a better idea of how population centers stack up against each other , what kinds of trends areas are experiencing , and so on . They're just a snapshot . What will happen (in Winnipeg's case at least) is that the numbers will be adjusted upwards significantly although by how much is anybody's guess . Don't forget too that other centers will see their numbers pushed higher so don't hold your breath in expectation of change in the city's national ranking .

Stats-Can openly acknowledges that census figures aren't accurate due to so many fluid factors and more precise numbers don't become available until the adjustments are made .
__________________
Giving you a reason to drink and drive since 1975.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #273  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 1:45 AM
Bdog's Avatar
Bdog Bdog is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 2,228
Quebec City's CMA boundary grew by about 75 sq. km's between 2006 and 2011. I wonder how much population was added by default by the boundary adjustment...
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #274  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 1:49 AM
chrisallard5454's Avatar
chrisallard5454 chrisallard5454 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 2,047
Quote:
Originally Posted by roccerfeller View Post
I really have no idea.

The 2010 estimates, also by Stat Can, show a huge discrepancy with Winnipeg (They had ~752k for the CMA I think)

By the end of 2015 the city has a projection at ~800k CMA; end of 2011 should have been ~ 764k

Head scratching, to say the least. These are to now be considered "official", however.

We may simply just have to wait a year to see if there were any huge discrepancies with the population results. My understanding is, the 800k CMA "adjusted" estimation (from the city in Sept. 2011) by 2015's end will be reached. Very huge discrepancy with the 2011 Stat Can results. Something is amiss. I could be wrong, as I was anticipating slightly higher numbers for most of the centres.



Which is interesting. If true, I wonder why? 30k+ people would be a lot of people who are opting out.
See the most interesting thing is the opting out in general. I lived with my parents during the census so I didn't have to fill it out, but I distinctly remember months of radio broadcasting we had to fill the census out by law. If it is a legal matter than should there be no discrepancies? Besides homeless and transient population of course.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #275  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 1:52 AM
Boreal's Avatar
Boreal Boreal is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1,698
It does not matter where Winnipeg falls in the Hamilton-Quebec City-Winnipeg debate. We already got the NHL back. The peeing match is over. Chipman and Thomson called checkmate. The rest is just semantics now.



To be resumed if Quebec City lands a team... then we can compete with them over inhabitants.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #276  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 1:56 AM
Bdog's Avatar
Bdog Bdog is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 2,228
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boreal View Post
It does not matter where Winnipeg falls in the Hamilton-Quebec City-Winnipeg debate. We already got the NHL back. The peeing match is over. Chipman and Thomson called checkmate. The rest is just semantics now.



To be resumed if Quebec City lands a team... then we can compete with them over inhabitants.
Hahah, touche. The fact that we have both a CFL and NHL team puts us in the rank of Calgary and Edmonton as far as I'm concerned
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #277  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 2:01 AM
Tower Crane's Avatar
Tower Crane Tower Crane is offline
ABOVE people like you
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Winnipeg Manitoba
Posts: 343
Interesting Provincial Math

So if each province keeps growing at its current rate for the next 5 years each will add:

BC will add a Windsor sized city
Alberta will add a Halifax sized city
Sask will add a Medicine Hat sized city
Manitoba will add a Charlottetown sized city
Ontario will add a Winnipeg sized city
Quebec will add a St. Catherine sized city

The rest don't matter.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #278  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 2:02 AM
Boreal's Avatar
Boreal Boreal is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 1,698
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bdog View Post
Hahah, touche. The fact that we have both a CFL and NHL team puts us in the rank of Calgary and Edmonton as far as I'm concerned


We would need a WHL team to come to Winnipeg for that to happen.

NHL is worth 100 points
CFL is worth 85 points
NBA is worth 80 points
MLB is worth negative 80 points
CHL is worth 20 points
MLS is worth 5 points
Each CIS program is worth 2.5 points
NLL is worth 0.25 points

**Montreal Grand Prix and other one-off events (Bell Canadian Open, Rogers Cup, etc.) do not count, and due to personal bias I have disregarded all other athletic leagues because they do not appeal to me.

This way, you can add up the scores for each city.

NHL + CFL + NBA + (- MLB) + CHL + MLS + CIS*n + NLL = the most objective way to rank a city
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #279  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 4:30 AM
spiritedenergy's Avatar
spiritedenergy spiritedenergy is offline
A long time gone
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Great Spirit Land
Posts: 705
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisallard5454 View Post
According to Stats Can the Census is still incomplete as a lot of people didn't fill them out. People seem to suggest that the more accurate results will come in a year or so after adjustments are made. According to Stats Can Winnipeg's CMA in particular had trouble obtaining accurate results because of unwillingness to fill out the Census forms.
when was the census carried out? I guess the non-resident immigrants like me were not asked to participate? There are lots of immigrants downtown, so maybe that's one of the reason of the map showing people fleeing away from it. The only area increasing is the west exchange, where people buying condos are probably residents and citizens.
__________________
"Perdedar-i mikuned der kasr-i kayser ankebut
bu növbet mizenet der bertarimi Afrasyab."

-------------
"The spider spins his web in the Palace of the Caesars,
An owl hoots in the towers of Afrasiyab."
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #280  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2012, 6:29 AM
The Jabroni's Avatar
The Jabroni The Jabroni is offline
Go kicky fast, okay!
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Winnipeg, Donut Dominion
Posts: 2,959
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boreal View Post


We would need a WHL team to come to Winnipeg for that to happen.

NHL is worth 100 points
CFL is worth 85 points
NBA is worth 80 points
MLB is worth negative 80 points
CHL is worth 20 points
MLS is worth 5 points
Each CIS program is worth 2.5 points
NLL is worth 0.25 points

**Montreal Grand Prix and other one-off events (Bell Canadian Open, Rogers Cup, etc.) do not count, and due to personal bias I have disregarded all other athletic leagues because they do not appeal to me.

This way, you can add up the scores for each city.

NHL + CFL + NBA + (- MLB) + CHL + MLS + CIS*n + NLL = the most objective way to rank a city
Not exactly "objective" considering that you have a personal bias on one-off events (the Canadian GP is NOT a one-off, but an annual event), and your unappealing taste in other athletic leagues.

Just saying!

I personally thought the census was handled badly this time around. Back in 2006, and even in previous years, my parents would be filling those forms out religiously. Last census, my parents didn't realize it was census year, until a person showed up at our doorstep, telling us to fill out the census form either on paper or online.

Perhaps that may explain why there are discrepancies in these results so far. People were either unaware, or simply refused to do the census, even though it is required by federal law.
__________________
Back then, I used to be indecisive.

Now, I'm not so sure.
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Manitoba & Saskatchewan
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 2:34 AM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.