DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by Robert.hampton

I guess I was coming at this from a different angle, as it was my understanding that the property was just put on the market. So my take was 'if you've had this property sitting in your portfolio for a few years and it is a potential Amazon site, why not wait six months to put it on the market----unless you know Amazon isnt coming'

I suppose that's right, but its interesting to wonder how Amazon is managing the process.

For example, is it informally messaging to city "finalists" that they are now "unofficially" no longer under consideration even though they were on the list a few weeks ago?

Or for cities with multiple sites, is Amazon messaging that site X if off the table but site Y is still viable?

Or perhaps Amazon is not even considering ANY sites until it has chosen a city or, perhaps (and I think this more likely), it is further culling the list of cities to identify the real "finalists" - a list of 2, 3 or 4 cities at which point it will focus on site options.

Given the extreme secrecy, I would have hard time believing that Amazon is messaging to any particular site owners that their site is rejected (which would increase the risk of leaks to the media since everyone is hot to trot on Amazon news), out of fear that their entire narrowing process will leak out incrementally. They've run a pretty tight ship so far.

[twister244]

I think it's worth remembering we really don't know which sites were pitched to Amazon for Denver.....

From what I can tell, there were eight proposed sites, and all of them were redacted from the public release of what the city put forward. That's in addition to the exactly numbers on the financial incentives.

It's pretty hard to really know exactly what Amazon is thinking, especially when we really don't know the exact details of what was pitched to them, aside from anyone on this forum having insider knowledge.

[CastleScott]

15th and Stout could certainly be worse. If the materials aren’t too cheap it will have kind of a 1950’s -60’s International style vibe.

I kind of agree on this one plus that color rendering that Rds posted with 23 floors-that could go up maybe in the 280 ft range. Btw I think they might be mimicking the next door historic Rio Grande building-15 st is getting a hella nice street wall.

[CastleScott]

As for Amazon going to Sacramento-the Sacramento Bee had a story of Sac offering around 500 mil to them to locate in the downtown rail yards area.

Btw Sac is in the running for a 2.5 bil General Motors hybrid light truck plant and they're also courting Ford for a hybrid car or truck plant as well (I doubt Amazon would come here to Sac since they seem to want to go towards the east coast or central US).

[mhays]

I can imagine them being more interested in a collection of blocks around 20th & Broadway than a self-contained TOD somewhere, if they're going for Seattle 2.

The DPAC site sounds highly unsuitable. Offices like larger sites to fit parking, and larger floorplates. They don't fit well with DPAC's facilities that will remain. The office point is true even with the low parking ratios Amazon is used to (1/1000 in the core, somewhat higher further away). Also it would be hard to hit the 8 msf target in that neighborhood.

[CastleScott]

The DPAC site sounds highly unsuitable. Offices like larger sites to fit parking, and larger floorplates. They don't fit well with DPAC's facilities that will remain. The office point is true even with the low parking ratios Amazon is used to (1/1000 in the core, somewhat higher further away). Also it would be hard to hit the 8 msf target in that neighborhood.

Did you live in Denver at one time mhays? You seem to know the hoods very well.

[mhays]

No, I just follow a handful of cities pretty closely including Denver.

[derek.berardi]

Then there's this! I love when unexpected areas randomly pull forward with large-scale development plans. Seems like the future of development in Denver will be watching all these satellite nodes spring up.

https://www.denverite.com/west-colfax-cloverleaf-48384/

[SirLucasTheGreat]

I passed by Block 162 and it looks like they have broke ground. It is such a large lot.

[twister244]

Starting grow tired of this "Boulder-esque" attitude seeping through the remainder of the metro area.....

Perhaps this deserves to be in the front range dev thread, but it also applies to Denver development.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/lif...orado-counties

If something like this passed, in conjunction with the green roof initiative, and a ban on slot homes the city is considering taking up, it will only add to the housing woes many are experiencing.... I really wish some of the backers of these initiatives understood that.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by twister244

Starting grow tired of this "Boulder-esque" attitude seeping through the remainder of the metro area.....

Perhaps this deserves to be in the front range dev thread, but it also applies to Denver development.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/lif...orado-counties

If something like this passed, in conjunction with the green roof initiative, and a ban on slot homes the city is considering taking up, it will only add to the housing woes many are experiencing.... I really wish some of the backers of these initiatives understood that.

This goes back to a factor that's been noted on here a few times - the diverging interests between long-time Denver residents who own homes, and bought when prices were low, and younger or newer residents who don't own and have been impacted by high housing costs.

You are right, 1 percent growth limits would likely lead to soaring housing costs for those who don't already own. I think home owners are more likely voters though. If it makes it to the ballot, this may take a huge effort to defeat. I hear people complain about the growth and the traffic all the time and it may be tempting for people to think they can simply vote away the problems, without really considering consequences.

Interesting to think about what the impact would have been had this been in place since 2010.

[RyanD]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

I passed by Block 162 and it looks like they have broke ground. It is such a large lot.

I thought the same, so I had to take a look. The tower is going to be along 15th and there is still a lot of 'lot' removal to take place. It does look like they are starting utilities which is a good sign.



Also...

[DenvertoLA]

So are they going to demolish that building at the corner of 16th and California when they build the hotel part? The images on their site have the hotel there, but the lot looks big enough to hold both towers while leaving the existing buildings there.

[Sam Hill]

Originally Posted by twister244

Starting grow tired of this "Boulder-esque" attitude seeping through the remainder of the metro area.....

Perhaps this deserves to be in the front range dev thread, but it also applies to Denver development.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/lif...orado-counties

If something like this passed, in conjunction with the green roof initiative, and a ban on slot homes the city is considering taking up, it will only add to the housing woes many are experiencing.... I really wish some of the backers of these initiatives understood that.

This is really scary. It would be a disaster.

The idiot proposing/funding this thing makes no sense. He thinks Amazon would be more likely to come here if we were "controlling growth?" What???? First of all, it should be obvious Amazon isn't looking for a location with a strict, arbitrary limit on new housing inventory and therefor can't accommodate 50,000 new jobs. And secondly, he's ostensibly against growth and yet he's in favor of Amazon moving here? I'm so confused!

And I love how he ironically insists at the end that people need to "look at the facts."

This initiative truly scares me. It seems fairly obvious that the logic behind the idea is completely flawed, but I don't think that matters. I don't have faith in democracy anymore. People are stupid.

[TakeFive]

twister244/Sam Hill...Ahh, I had missed that as the page turned.

a) I fully support the 'ban' on slot homes; way too fugly and not the least bit pedestrian friendly.

b) I'm on record for how dumb the green roof proposal was.

c) that one percent proposal? Not sure whether to laugh or cry... but the timing is interesting...

Friday Follies (early version)

Mike Sunnucks, PBJ had the topical article of the day and the substance is as applicable to Denver as Phoenix if not more so.
Are volatile stocks a black swan moment after another big drop for Dow?

Market downturns and the end of expansion cycles (i.e. recessions) don’t start with a whimper. They usually land with a resounding thud.

That is according Spencer Levy.

Who's Spencer Levy?

He’s head of research for commercial real estate firm CBRE Group Inc. (NYSE: CBG). He was in Phoenix Thursday to talk about the state of real estate markets and the economy.

Levy said the test of the economy — including consumers, business sentiment and real estate markets — is whether the stress with stocks turns into a “black swan” event that upsets the current and long economic expansion.

One issue has been the falling value of the dollar which has both benefits and disadvantages. For example will foreigners (like China/Japan) continue buying treasuries when their value drops due to the dollar's drop? Add in the bump in deficits from tax cuts and the additional needed borrowing ie T-Bill sales has spooked the bond market a bit. That all puts pressure on interest rates with the 10-year T-Bill now close to 2.9%. There's a couple of other funky things that have added to 'volatility' but it's the unknown psychological effect on average Joe's and Juanita's that's of concern. And so it goes.

[DenvertoLA]

guys... it's back!

https://www.twotabor.com

super fresh pic too, it has 1144 in the background

680,000 SF
BUILDING HEIGHT
33 stories, 460 feet tall

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

guys... it's back!

https://www.twotabor.com

Welp, there goes this development cycle. A Tabor Two announcement is our local black swan.

But, damn, is that one sexy building.

[CherryCreek]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Welp, there goes this development cycle. A Tabor Two announcement is our local black swan.

But, damn, is that one sexy building.

Exactly. Really have to doubt whether this is getting built any time soon. For probably 30 years, Tabor2 has been number 1 designated "most likely to get built" Denver sky scraper. And yet, it doesn't happen.

You snooze you lose. Perhaps 2025-2030 time frame? Just in time for Tabor's 40th anniversary.

[Denvergotback]

Well does anybody find it funny how they reintroduce Tabertwo right as the DOW is falling? It lines up perfectly for them

I actually have a really good feeling that its going to actually get built this cycle. I think they will start building it and as its finishing the building the market will crash. it will be their way of going off with a boom

[Fritzdude]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

guys... it's back!

https://www.twotabor.com

super fresh pic too, it has 1144 in the background

680,000 SF
BUILDING HEIGHT
33 stories, 460 feet tall

Wow.. that’s a nice concept. This would have been a nice building!