The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[NBNYer]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Indeed.

I like to consider Sackville a default component of the Moncton CMA too, but the presence of Mt A in the town really screws up the commuter pattern, and because of this Sackville will likely never be included in the CMA as far as Stats Can is concerned.

Sackville is very much its own standalone town, even if it's close to Moncton, largely because of the university. Shediac also has it's own history as a town but today it definitely fits the description of suburban commuter town and somehow seems more "dependant" of Moncton. I'd wager that the vast majority of the residents of the area, all to way to Cap-Pele, see themselves as living within the Moncton "region". I think that might be a smaller percentage for Sackville, even if they're both the same distance from Moncton.

I've wondered what the city would look like if Mount A was established in Moncton instead. I could see a beautiful campus around Jones lake, close to downtown. Too bad.

[Freddypop]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Indeed.

I like to consider Sackville a default component of the Moncton CMA too, but the presence of Mt A in the town really screws up the commuter pattern, and because of this Sackville will likely never be included in the CMA as far as Stats Can is concerned.

Freddy has a similar situation with the Town of Oromocto. Will likely never be part of the future Freddy CMA due to commuter patterns as a result of the base

[JHikka]

I agree. I don't think we'll ever see a day where Sackville is within the Moncton CMA. Shediac, Cap-Pelé, and Cocagne are all ahead of it logically. IIRC Shediac should be included in the Moncton CMA in 2021 or 2026, which will boost its numbers nicely.

Today's Population Estimate furthers shows the split-nature of NB's demographics right now. The Southern half of the province is growing. The urban centres are growing. Everything else is declining. Here's an example:

Year....Southern NB.....Northern NB
2011.....543,227..........212,303
2013.....547,182..........208,528
2015.....549,091..........204,853
2017.....557,188..........202,467

Take away Northern NB and NB's population trajectory doesn't look half bad.

In ~2005, Southeastern NB (Moncton & environs) accounted for roughly 1-in-4 NBers. By the next census SENB will account for roughly 1-in-3. SENB's population eclipsed 200K in ~2007 and will likely eclipse 225K by ~2021.

[Bishop2047]

I know this is a taboo subject but has there ever been forced (or volentary) relocation of populations, in n.b or n.s? I have always thought that was a way of benifiting the growing urban areas while saving on services in dying rural areas of the maritimes. I know it happened in n.l on several occasions.

Though I would like to avoid the second Acadian expulsion, it seems like a win win for the province and with the right insentives people would buy in.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

I know this is a taboo subject but has there ever been forced (or volentary) relocation of populations, in n.b or n.s? I have always thought that was a way of benifiting the growing urban areas while saving on services in dying rural areas of the maritimes. I know it happened in n.l on several occasions.

Though I would like to avoid the second Acadian expulsion, it seems like a win win for the province and with the right insentives people would buy in.

Most of the residents are old enough that the cost of incentives/relocation wouldn't ultimately be worth the input. Speaking frankly, give it twenty years and a big chunk of current residents will have passed on. Take Gloucester County for instance:

65+ age demographic has increased from 12,345 to 18,725 in ten years. Meanwhile, the 15-65 demographic has decreased from 57,485 to 50,765. People 65 and over make up nearly 25% in Gloucester and Northern NB as a whole, and these areas typically have average ages of 45-50. Half of Gloucester's population is 50+. The same can be said for Kent, Restigouche, and most of Northern NB. There's going to be a big demographic swing in 20ish years when most of these rural, northern NBers either move or pass on.

[Scarface]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Most of the residents are old enough that the cost of incentives/relocation wouldn't ultimately be worth the input. Speaking frankly, give it twenty years and a big chunk of current residents will have passed on. Take Gloucester County for instance:

65+ age demographic has increased from 12,345 to 18,725 in ten years. Meanwhile, the 15-65 demographic has decreased from 57,485 to 50,765. People 65 and over make up nearly 25% in Gloucester and Northern NB as a whole, and these areas typically have average ages of 45-50. Half of Gloucester's population is 50+. Half.

Take a look at Kent County as well in the last 10 years, or so the population has diminished. Talking to several people that I know who are younger, and even hearing from there own friends, and familly, and fall into the category where it's either buy a house, and take the bus, or buy a car, and rent most have purchased either a house, or land to build on in areas of Kent County it's afordable, and they can drive to the city if they need to. So towns might actually see a boom in population in the next 10 years.

[MonctonRad]

Indeed. A lassez faire approach and a tincture of time will eventually solve the problem for us.

The south will continue to grow and the north will continue to senesce and die.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Scarface

Take a look at Kent County as well in the last 10 years, or so the population has diminished Talking to several people that I know who are younger, and fall into the category where it's either buy a house, and take the bus, or buy a car, and rent most have purchased either a house, or land to build on in areas of Kent County it's afordable, and they can drive to the city if they need to. So towns might actually see a boom in population in the next 10 years.

Kent County has seen a situation where its southern portion is doing average but the northern portion is declining. Similar to the people you mentioned, a lot are buying homes in Saint Mary, Cocagne, Dundas, Bouctouche, Richibucto, and commuting to Moncton (the same is happening in Beaubassin-Est)....and with that change comes more Anglicizing. Kent County could be 50/50 English/French by 2030/2035. I've mentioned this before, but the more that Moncton grows and the more that it sprawls the more that it Anglicizes its surroundings.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by NBNYer

I've wondered what the city would look like if Mount A was established in Moncton instead. I could see a beautiful campus around Jones lake, close to downtown. Too bad.

Indeed interesting to speculate.

College Saint-Joseph in Memramcook was the Acadian equivalent of Mount Allison. The Acadian leadership made the conscious decision to relocate (and rename) the campus to Moncton and make it the provincial francophone university. This turned out to be a strategic and wise decision for the Acadian community.

Mount Allison on the other hand remains a small elite academic university located in a traditional college town. Again, this was a conscious decision on their part and in some ways has served them well too. Mount A's reputation as a high quality undergraduate university is unequivocal, but on the other hand, they have not grown and have not developed post graduate programs and degrees like most other Maritime universities.

I don't begrudge Sackville having the local anglophone university, but I sometimes wonder if it wouldn't have been possible for Mount A to have located an urban campus in Moncton to cater to the local anglophone population (Sackville is just a touch too far to comfortably commute during severe winter weather). An urban campus for Mount A could have allowed development of some graduate and professional programs too........

[JHikka]

Previously I made claims regarding language dispersal amongst demographic groups in NB and I was looking for some info to back up what I was trying to get at. Luckily, StatCan released today some updated language statistics using Language Spoken at Home responses, so I have something to compare against my assumptions!

This data today is sorted by age demographic and can be subdivided between provinces, CMAs, CAs, and Census tracts (segments of CMA/CA cities). I've stuck with New Brunswick for the sake of this exercise:

New Brunswick, Language Spoken Most Often At Home (2016)

• English: 505,930 (69.10%)
• French: 206,315 (28.18%)
• E & F: 7,280 (0.99%)
• Non-Official: 12,690 (1.73%)
• Total: 732,215 (100.00%)

Beyond this, though, we can subdivide by age groups:

NB, % of Respondents by Age Group, Speak English at Home (2016)

• 0 to 24: 71.44%
• 25 to 44: 69.05%
• 45 to 64: 67.93%
• 65 Plus: 67.89%

NB, % of Respondents by Age Group, Speak French at Home (2016)

• 0 to 24: 25.07%
• 25 to 44: 27.48%
• 45 to 64: 29.84%
• 65 Plus: 30.51%

Essentially what these numbers mean is that 5.5% fewer people under 25 speak French at home than those 65+. For English, 3.5% more young people speak English at home as opposed to their seniors.

The French breakdown is what I mostly expected when I previously made claims stating that as rural NB withers away so will a large chunk of the French-speaking population. Today's stats show that Francophones in NB make up a larger portion of elderly than they do youth, and these numbers don't really show any sign of slowing down. In Moncton CMA French-at-home has seen a 2% rise from old to young, but elsewhere the %s aren't looking good.

• Language Spoken Most Often at Home (269), Other Language(s) Spoken Regularly at Home (270) and Age (15A) for the Population Excluding Institutional Residents of Canada, Provinces and Territories, Census Metropolitan Areas and Census Agglomerations, 2016 Census - 100% Data
  
• http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...NAMEE=&VNAMEF=

Either way, this says nothing of the rising bilingualism rates across the province. As the French-first population ages the overall rates for bilingual residents continues to increase, which means that more people are speaking English at home and more are capable of speaking both languages regardless.

Moncton, for the sake of inclusion:

Moncton CMA breakdown:

Moncton (CMA), Language Spoken at Home, 2016

• English: 96,160 (68.12%)
• French: 39,680 (28.11%)
• E & F: 2,380 (1.69%)
• Non-Official: 2,950 (2.09%)
• Total: 141,170 (100.00%)

Moncton (CMA), % of Respondents by Age Group, Speak English at Home (2016)

• 0 to 24: 66.33%
• 25 to 44: 65.08%
• 45 to 64: 71.20%
• 65 Plus: 70.68%

Moncton (CMA), % of Respondents by Age Group, Speak French at Home (2016)

• 0 to 24: 28.61%
• 25 to 44: 30.48%
• 45 to 64: 25.92%
• 65 Plus: 27.17%

[MonctonRad]

Interesting stuff Greg, thanks for doing this.

One of the things that is happening is that as the francophone youth head south and leave La Peninsule, they are moving from a purely francophone milieu to a majority English, somewhat bilingual one. In order to engage effectively in their new community, they have to become fluent in English. This doesn't mean they are leaving their French roots behind, but their world is expanding and with this comes more and more interactions with Anglophones. One aspect of this is that more and more mixed Anglophone/Francophone marriages are occurring.

When this happens, the vast majority of the time the default home language will be English, and the kids grow up speaking English first at home. Now, the majority of the kids from these mixed unions will take early immersion or, frequently in Moncton at least, will enter the francophone school system (because they have a francophone parent). The children will end up flawlessly bilingual, but will not necessarily be pur laine Acadian. If they live in an anglophone neighbourhood, speak English at home and the kids they hang around with are mostly anglophone, how will they identify themselves? Will they consider themselves Acadian, or just as a bilingual Canadian? What happens to the next generation, and the generation after that?

Over time, I think there will be an inevitable slippery slope and even with the best intentions, the "French spoken at home" stat will slip from 28% to 25% and perhaps one day in 50-100 years to 20%. What will this mean to the bilingual character of the province???

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

When this happens, the vast majority of the time the default home language will be English, and the kids grow up speaking English first at home. Now, the majority of the kids from these mixed unions will take early immersion or, frequently in Moncton at least, will enter the francophone school system (because they have a francophone parent). The children will end up flawlessly bilingual, but will not necessarily be pur laine Acadian. If they live in an anglophone neighbourhood, speak English at home and the kids they hang around with are mostly anglophone, how will they identify themselves? Will they consider themselves Acadian, or just as a bilingual Canadian? What happens to the next generation, and the generation after that?

This point is mentioned in a report done by StatCan, titled The literacy skills of New Brunswick francophones: Demographic and socioeconomic issues, by Julien Bérard-Chagnon and Jean-François Lepage. Below is a passage that is relevant to what you're referring to:

Originally Posted by Bérard & Lepage

Regarding the second factor, French is not always passed on to children as a mother tongue. While French is almost always passed on when both parents are francophones, the rate of transmission decreases considerably if the mother tongue of one of the parents is not French. In 2011, French was passed on as the mother tongue to 32% of children whose parents had French and English as their mother tongues respectively. Exogamous francophone couples are becoming increasingly common in New Brunswick. In 1971, just over 15% of children with at least one francophone parent were living in a family of an exogamous couple, compared with 33% in 2011. These two elements therefore exert a degree of influence on the transmission of French from parents to children and, at the same time, on the rate of aging of the francophone population.

In today's context what this means is that more Francophones moving to Moncton from Northern NB essentially quickens the pace of bilingualism and the loss of French as a first-language (and Home Language). French decline is happening because there are no French-dominant areas prospering in NB. The only bilingual-heavy area prospering (Moncton) is an area which inherently develops bilingualism with an English-first-language background.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Over time, I think there will be an inevitable slippery slope and even with the best intentions, the "French spoken at home" stat will slip from 28% to 25% and perhaps one day in 50-100 years to 20%. What will this mean to the bilingual character of the province???

This is a good question and one I don't really have an answer to. I assume the French language will hold on in Northern NB and remain a somewhat visible language, but these areas are going to continue to see large population declines in the coming years. Kent County is getting closer to 50/50 with each passing year, towns like Richibucto are shedding their French-home-language residents and replacing them with English. I'm assuming the prevalence of Francophones in the province will decrease even if the number of bilingual residents overall increases.

[JHikka]

Some stats courtesy of SJ:

[KnoxfordGuy]

New Brunswick saw the largest year over year percentage increase in manufacturing sales of all provinces at 15.2%. Sales were $1,697 billion in January.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Edited with numbers

Stats Can released the population estimates for January 1st and the three maritime provinces flatlined with 0% growth and NFLD had its population decline 0.2%. More of the same unfortunately

Canada: 36,963,854

Nova Scotia: 957,470
New Brunswick: 760,744
Newfoundland and Labrador: 527,613
Prince Edward Island: 152,768

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Stats Can released the population estimates for January 1st and the three maritime provinces flatlined with 0% growth and NFLD had its population decline 0.2%. More of the same unfortunately

Nobody really grew - the highest increases were 0.3%. I wouldn't get glum worrying about this particular quarterly update.

We can have a narrative about declining population but NB, NS, and PEI are at all-time highs for total population counts

For NB in particular, here's a comparative number:

Type : Q4 2016 / Q4 2017
In-Migrants: 1,530 / 1,829
Out-Migrants: 1,937 / 1,860

[KnoxfordGuy]

There was a note that said anything from -0.1 to +0.1 is basically unreliable data.

[KnoxfordGuy]

I know we have been growing as a whole for the last year but it still stings lol

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

I know we have been growing as a whole for the last year but it still stings lol

It shouldn't, really, depending on what your expectations are. Maritime provinces have been showing pretty steady growth for the past few years now. Quarter-by-quarter comparison is always going to provide a less accurate picture than year-over-year.

Here's Q1 for each of the past nine years:
NB
2010 Q1: 751,276
2011 Q1: 754,793
2012 Q1: 756,278
2013 Q1: 756,061
2014 Q1: 755,571
2015 Q1: 754,866
2016 Q1: 755,036
2017 Q1: 758,198
2018 Q1: 760,744

Bit of a blip before immigration counts increased. Things could be worse. As i've pointed out before NB's population is centralizing in its urban cores so servicing a larger and more dense population is easier than servicing one that's spread out and thinner over a larger area.

NS
2010 Q1: 940,799
2011 Q1: 944,062
2012 Q1: 944,901
2013 Q1: 944,535
2014 Q1: 943,186
2015 Q1: 942,404
2016 Q1: 944,454
2017 Q1: 950,990
2018 Q1: 957,470

Again, Halifax is growing at a good rate and the province as a whole is still growing despite rural NS's bleeding.

In the same time frame PEI has moved from 140K to 152K.

[Fischbob]

I've been playing around with core housing need data fron Statscan/CMHC. From the above link, core housing need refers to households "whose dwelling is considered unsuitable (too small), inadequate (needing major repairs) or unaffordable (costing over 30% of the household's income) and whose income levels are such that they could not afford alternative suitable and adequate housing in their community."

Here are the 2016 rates of core housing need for the 3 NB metropolitan areas and their respective main cities:

Moncton CMA: 8.9%
Saint John CMA: 8.8%
Fredericton CA: 9.9%

Moncton CSD: 11.5%
Saint John CSD: 12.0%
Fredericton CSD: 12.6%

And here is core housing need mapped for the 3 metros:



Moncton:


Saint John:


Fredericton:


Of note, the highest rates of core housing need are found in inner-city Saint John (Old North End, South End and Waterloo Village), again highlighting the CMA's highly unequal socioeconomic patterns.

I'm wondering if Fredericton's higher overall rate is partially due to the student population?