Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123
It is interesting how different this is from the CMA population estimates: http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo05a-eng.htm
As many people have said, these figures are not very accurate because not all forms are submitted. Last census the numbers were corrected upward by about 3% on average. I don't know how much the return rates varied by city.
What is odd is that some census figures are approximately the same as the estimates, while others are far below:
City / 2010 est. population / 2011 census count
St. John's 192.3 / 196,966
Halifax 403.2 / 390,328
Calgary 1,242.6 / 1,214,839
Could the return rates vary that much between cities? Another possibility is that growth rates from 2010-2011 were dramatically different from 2007-2010, but that seems unlikely. I wonder what else could explain the differences? |
As someone who's been following Winnipeg's population growth for a while, I was quite surprised at how different Stat Can 2011 results and the city of Winnipeg's estimates are....even in 2010 Stat Can estimations were different
Winnipeg 753.6 / 730,018
What's more, is the estimations fall in line with QC, but not Winnipeg (or Hamilton for that matter).
As recent as September 2011, the city of Winnipeg did a population forecast readjustment as the growth was increasing (although ever so slightly)
Not to add, this city council meeting Feb 1, 2012 discussing boundary realignment & possible RM annexation detailed these facts, according to the Conference Board of Canada:
Key Points:
- Increase of >40 000 people over last ten years, after an extended period of barely any population growth
- Next ten years, projected growth is >70 000 people (1.75% increase over previous decade)
- From 2008 - 2010, population was originally projected to grow by 17,200 people according to Conference Board of Canada
- Actual 2008-2010 population growth turned out to be 56% higher... or 30,500 people, with a vast majority coming in 09/10.
http://winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf
This was from May 16, 2011, for anyone interested. Results are seemingly different from what stat can had, and there seems to be a theme of a ~20k difference throughout.
Are these people just imagined, made up, or is there a huge discrepancy going on?
Still, these new results must be considered "official" now, I suppose, so these are the benchmark. It will be interesting to see what this means for population forecasts in this city, as done by the city vs. Stat Can in the future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ue
Even though this is preliminary, I was surprised at some of the results...
- Calgary isn't larger than Ottawa
- Montreal isn't even at 3.9 million like everyone was predicting
- Edmonton isn't around 1.2 million
- Neither Kitchener-Waterloo nor London hit 500,000
- Winnipeg is no longer neck and neck with QC, with QC leaving the 'Peg and Hammer in the dust
- Halifax isn't at 400,000 yet
- Regina was predicted at 20K more
- Would have thought Kelowna would've grown a bit more
Nice to see that finally Alberta has another city over 100,000 (Lethbridge). Hopefully soon Red Deer will join that club, maybe even for this census with perhaps CA extensions. How is Oshawa still not apart of the Toronto CMA and Okotoks still not apart of the Calgary CMA?
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Yeah, my sentiments precisely on all accounts, related to these results. Though, since I was focused more on Winnipeg, I expected it to be very tight with Quebec but there seems to be quite some difference here. I do tend to side with the city estimates more though, even if these are now the new "official" results.
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