Amazon HQ2 thread

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by isaidso

You could always buy in Toronto now.

Why Toronto?

[WhipperSnapper]

Why not. Diversify. Bring truckloads of greenbacks. You'll need it.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I think the part that you may be missing here is that these kinds of variations are a type of "statistical noise" that, over the course of many years, cancel each other out. Ultimately, the cities that are at the top of this list year after year aren't just getting there by chance. There is something going on there that explains this persistent trend.

No, some of these factors favor certain cities (permitting norms for example) and certain types of cities (ones that sprawl and fully rebuild facilities vs. growing in place for example). I'm guessing you're not in real estate or construction.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by mhays

No, some of these factors favor certain cities (permitting norms for example) and certain types of cities (ones that sprawl and fully rebuild facilities vs. growing in place for example). I'm guessing you're not in real estate or construction.

I'm very involved in real estate, actually. But I guess I just don't understand your issue with their data. You don't seem to have convinced me that there is an inherent bias in it. Does it have flaws? I'll give you that. But is it a flaw that favors one city over another? Don't see it. In a country where every city--old and new--is sprawling, not sure how you can make that case.

[mhays]

So you agree it's flawed. The question, then, is how much.

For starters, obviously some cities sprawl way more than others. And obviously some cities do a lot more leap-frogging while others do more renovating. I mean factories, offices, hospitals, retail, and so on. Don't pretend you don't know that.

Being in real estate isn't really the point. Being involved in all of the relevant project types is. Or in my case being the contractor's marketing guy who tries to pay attention to all of them.

The crappiness of the "data" also suggests they miss a ton completely. That would be the norm...publications in this industry usually do, and it's very skewed by state...every state has different ways of reporting or not reporting this stuff. Surely you at least pay attention to the states in your area and know this?

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Why Toronto?

I was being facetious. Realistically, I don't think it's possible for the HQ2 to go outside the United States under the Trump presidency. The backlash would be too intense. That said, the bid process will benefit Toronto regardless of the outcome. Amazon will double down just like it did with Vancouver with a major expansion announcement.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by mhays

So you agree it's flawed. The question, then, is how much.

For starters, obviously some cities sprawl way more than others. And obviously some cities do a lot more leap-frogging while others do more renovating. I mean factories, offices, hospitals, retail, and so on. Don't pretend you don't know that.

Being in real estate isn't really the point. Being involved in all of the relevant project types is. Or in my case being the contractor's marketing guy who tries to pay attention to all of them.

The crappiness of the "data" also suggests they miss a ton completely. That would be the norm...publications in this industry usually do, and it's very skewed by state...every state has different ways of reporting or not reporting this stuff. Surely you at least pay attention to the states in your area and know this?

Well, Chicago is an older city that is seeing massive amounts of renovation of older properties, as well as relatively little suburban and exurban commercial development besides warehouses and data centers. It is seeing a lot of infill construction in the core areas of the city. And it always performs well on this list.

I guess I just don’t understand what your beef is. Flawed data is still useful if it is equally flawed across the board. Im not a worldwide expert on construction but I have studied statistics. I’m not sure but perhaps your city doesn’t perform well on this list and hence the rejection?

[skyscraper]

Originally Posted by isaidso

I was being facetious. Realistically, I don't think it's possible for the HQ2 to go outside the United States under the Trump presidency.

Walk me through this, please. what does trump have to do with it?

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally Posted by isaidso

I was being facetious. Realistically, I don't think it's possible for the HQ2 to go outside the United States under the Trump presidency. The backlash would be too intense. That said, the bid process will benefit Toronto regardless of the outcome. Amazon will double down just like it did with Vancouver with a major expansion announcement.

They leased 150,000 square feet of office space in Vancouver. At the same time, they leased over 100,000 square feet of office space in Toronto. In either case, it's not a significant amount of space. Vancouver forumers were totally overplaying it.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by skyscraper

Walk me through this, please. what does trump have to do with it?

Your own media and industry analysts have argued it themselves. CNN, ABC, Fox, take your pick.

But given the current political environment in the U.S., going with Canada would be tricky.

President Trump, who campaigned on a doctrine of "America First" and promised to create 25 million jobs, has publicly derided U.S. companies with foreign outposts. He's also criticized Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos on Twitter.

"I don't know if Amazon wants to get in a Twitter back-and-forth with the president, but I'm guessing if they announce that they're going to put 50,000 jobs in Toronto instead of the United States, there would be backlash," Parilla said.

Sean Speer, a senior fellow for fiscal policy at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, said uncertainty surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement may also make Amazon (AMZN) uneasy. The U.S., Canada and Mexico are in the process of renegotiating the trade pact.

"[Amazon] might feel safer staying in the U.S. market," Speer said.

Link: http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/20/tech...ico/index.html

[isaidso]

Toronto tech will boom with or without the HQ2 but what the bid process has done is profile what the Toronto-Waterloo corridor has to offer both US tech firms and those elsewhere. It seems every major tech firm around are making significant investments in this region..... or planning to do so.

The Corridor is already the 4th largest tech centre (and not that far out of 2nd) in north America by number of workers. Employment in this sector grew by more than San Francisco and New York combined in 2016. 2017 figures aren't out yet. If Toronto were in the US the decision for Amazon would be whole lot easier. Who knows though, they might risk the backlash to take advantage of what's happening north of the border.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Your own media and industry analysts have argued it themselves. CNN, ABC, Fox, take your pick.




Link: http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/20/tech...ico/index.html

That's from October 20, 2017.

Since that article was written -- and more importantly, was the U.S. dropping corporate tax rates from 35 to 21%. Since Amazon is shopping for the best deal tax incentives and other benefits from cities and states, the lower corporate tax rates is yet another incentive to locate their Head Quarters 2.0 within the U.S.

[skyscraper]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Your own media and industry analysts have argued it themselves. CNN, ABC, Fox, take your pick.




Link: http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/20/tech...ico/index.html

the media also predicted that hillary would win, so you'll forgive me if I am not exactly impressed with their analytical capabilities.

[isaidso]

^^ Thankfully, it's not you Toronto has to impress.

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

That's from October 20, 2017.

Since that article was written -- and more importantly, was the U.S. dropping corporate tax rates from 35 to 21%. Since Amazon is shopping for the best deal tax incentives and other benefits from cities and states, the lower corporate tax rates is yet another incentive to locate their Head Quarters 2.0 within the U.S.

You should do your homework first. Corporate tax rates are far lower in Canada. It's one of the reasons why when Tim Hortons and Burger King merged, the merged company Restaurant Brands (RBI) was headquartered next to the Tim Hortons HQ in suburban Toronto. What the Trump move will do is bring US rates closer to the lower Canadian rate.

Corporate Tax Rates as of January 2016 across the G7 countries (Canada's rate has stayed the same since)

Courtesy of the Department of Finance

Regarding incentives, Toronto knows it doesn't need to offer Amazon a dime to be competitive. Amazon listed many criteria but the most important driver for tech is access to quality talent in large numbers. No region in the US besides the Bay Area can match Toronto-Waterloo by that metric. Besides Ontario producing more STEM graduates than California each year, the Toronto region is one of the world's top immigrant cities. 100,000 migrate to it each year.

If one really wants to talk dollar incentives, I'll play ball. A Canadian HQ2 would save Amazon an estimated $650 million each year, every year, in health care costs because Canada has a publicly funded health care system. Just 10 years in Canada and Amazon would save $6.5 billion. That's a big number and trumps any monetary carrot US cities are offering.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by isaidso

You should do your homework first. Corporate tax rates are far lower in Canada. It's why when Tim Hortons and Burger King merged, the merged company Restaurant Brands (RBI) was headquartered next to the Tim Hortons HQ in suburban Toronto. What the Trump move will do is bring US rates closer to the lower Canadian rate.

Yes, that is common knowledge and is widely reported down here at how uncompetitive the U.S. was before tax reform.

The U.S. lowering their rates to be competitive with other nations is yet another incentive to Amazon to locate their head quarters 2.0 within the U.S.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by isaidso

^^ Thankfully, it's not you Toronto has to impress.



You should do your homework first. Corporate tax rates are far lower in Canada. It's one of the reasons why when Tim Hortons and Burger King merged, the merged company Restaurant Brands (RBI) was headquartered next to the Tim Hortons HQ in suburban Toronto. .

I'm confused. So Tim Hortons and BK merged to form a new company and that HQ...is next door to Tim Hortons HQ?

[mhays]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Well, Chicago is an older city that is seeing massive amounts of renovation of older properties, as well as relatively little suburban and exurban commercial development besides warehouses and data centers. It is seeing a lot of infill construction in the core areas of the city. And it always performs well on this list.

I guess I just don’t understand what your beef is. Flawed data is still useful if it is equally flawed across the board. Im not a worldwide expert on construction but I have studied statistics. I’m not sure but perhaps your city doesn’t perform well on this list and hence the rejection?

That's why a statistician mindset won't do very well in this field. It's essential to be a skeptic. That's true in any field, but especially in A/E/C/RE where reports routinely detail information that's clearly and massively incorrect when they're talking about your own projects.

I reject the idea that bad information is better than no information, unless it's seen in context. A trend that's not a trend, a ranking that's not a ranking...these can be actively damaging if they influence decisions.

I don't know why you think it's "equally flawed across the board." What is this based on?

My city, Seattle, has been getting astonishing amounts of investment. A while back when I looked at this source for multiple years, this was very unrepresented. It looked like gaps in what they're counting.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by isaidso

I was being facetious. Realistically, I don't think it's possible for the HQ2 to go outside the United States under the Trump presidency. The backlash would be too intense. That said, the bid process will benefit Toronto regardless of the outcome. Amazon will double down just like it did with Vancouver with a major expansion announcement.

I think trump is a big plus for Toronto. Visas have already been a big problem at HQ1 (albeit with a large foreign percentage actually working there), and this seems to be getting worse. It's not just a three-year problem, because it'll presumably take the president, house, and senate working in concert to reverse it.

There would be some backlash, but a clear message would be easy...Amazon wants to recruit the world's best, and Toronto is both viable in its own right and easier to recruit to due to US immigration policy. The only question would be how much to tie that to trump specifically.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by mhays

That's why a statistician mindset won't do very well in this field. It's essential to be a skeptic. That's true in any field, but especially in A/E/C/RE where reports routinely detail information that's clearly and massively incorrect when they're talking about your own projects.

I reject the idea that bad information is better than no information, unless it's seen in context. A trend that's not a trend, a ranking that's not a ranking...these can be actively damaging if they influence decisions.

I don't know why you think it's "equally flawed across the board." What is this based on?

My city, Seattle, has been getting astonishing amounts of investment. A while back when I looked at this source for multiple years, this was very unrepresented. It looked like gaps in what they're counting.

But why should the Seattle region perform near the top on this particular list? This list would naturally be dominated by metros that are seeing all sorts of corporate investment from entities large and small, from all walks of life, criss-crossing the continent, I imagine. That would explain why New York doesn’t perform as highly despite the fact that it surely captures the largest amount of corporate investment in sheer dollars.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...-company-town/

This ranking does not measure the most amount of dollars, but the highest volume of significant projects. It’s really an uncommon way to measure things, but it shines an interesting light on the underpinnings of the global economy. It for example shows why Chicago, which has not been as sexy in the most recent incarnation of the global economy (few really noteworthy names in modern tech as one example) also stubbornly isn’t exactly going away, so to speak. Too many unheard of middle men are building cargo facilities, distribution centers, auto dealerships, small supply-chain factories, intermodal hubs, extended stay hotels, airport facilities, in addition to the more visible tony office buildings, skyscrapers, transportation facilities, etc etc that we’re more used to talking about here.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by isaidso

^^ Thankfully, it's not you Toronto has to impress.



You should do your homework first. Corporate tax rates are far lower in Canada. It's one of the reasons why when Tim Hortons and Burger King merged, the merged company Restaurant Brands (RBI) was headquartered next to the Tim Hortons HQ in suburban Toronto. What the Trump move will do is bring US rates closer to the lower Canadian rate.

Corporate Tax Rates as of January 2016 across the G7 countries (Canada's rate has stayed the same since)

Courtesy of the Department of Finance

Regarding incentives, Toronto knows it doesn't need to offer Amazon a dime to be competitive. Amazon listed many criteria but the most important driver for tech is access to quality talent in large numbers. No region in the US besides the Bay Area can match Toronto-Waterloo by that metric. Besides Ontario producing more STEM graduates than California each year, the Toronto region is one of the world's top immigrant cities. 100,000 migrate to it each year.

If one really wants to talk dollar incentives, I'll play ball. A Canadian HQ2 would save Amazon an estimated $650 million each year, every year, in health care costs because Canada has a publicly funded health care system. Just 10 years in Canada and Amazon would save $6.5 billion. That's a big number and trumps any monetary carrot US cities are offering.

Canada is evil. Why do they allow all those fat cats to have such low taxes!