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  #1381  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2016, 8:39 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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It's interesting that Brown was perceived as a Tea Party-type social conservative, but now he's presenting himself as a post-partisan Nenshi or Obama-type figure.

http://tvo.org/blog/current-affairs/...aign=theagenda
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  #1382  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2016, 6:10 PM
eternallyme eternallyme is offline
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Latest poll: Wynne has a 20% approval rating, with a net rating of -44. Something tells me she is going to resign soon...
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  #1383  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2016, 1:27 PM
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Ontarians warming to guaranteed minimum income, poll suggests

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/64...poll-suggests/

There appears to be mounting public support in Ontario for a guaranteed minimum income to combat poverty, according to a new poll.

Premier Kathleen Wynne is touting a pilot project expected as early as next year over what she calls "a real concern around the way social assistance works in Ontario."

The scheme would guarantee a basic living income regardless of a recipient's employment status.

Forum Research Inc. found that Ontarians are open to the idea — if it replaces the myriad of existing "social assistance, welfare and other provincial support payments."

Of those polled, 41 per cent back the concept while 33 per cent oppose and 26 per cent don't know.

"Attitudes are changing quickly in North America on certain social issues," Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Tuesday.

Bozinoff noted he last polled on the idea of a guaranteed minimum income in 2012 and only 27 per cent of respondents across Canada were supportive.

"Times have changed," he said.
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  #1384  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2016, 2:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Docere View Post
It's interesting that Brown was perceived as a Tea Party-type social conservative, but now he's presenting himself as a post-partisan Nenshi or Obama-type figure.

http://tvo.org/blog/current-affairs/...aign=theagenda
That's the only way the PCs can even hope of winning. It will be interesting to see how many Ontarians learn who Patrick Brown is. So far barely anybody knows who he is or where he stands on anything.
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  #1385  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2016, 2:44 AM
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Latest poll: Wynne has a 20% approval rating, with a net rating of -44. Something tells me she is going to resign soon...
Still more than two years until the next election. Wynne is someone who can turn things around quickly. Nobody thought she would win a majority at the beginning of the last election campaign. She is also an amazing campaigner and should never be underestimated.

Wynne may be unpopular as Premier but come election time, how good will the alternatives look?
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  #1386  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2016, 4:06 AM
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Latest poll: Wynne has a 20% approval rating, with a net rating of -44. Something tells me she is going to resign soon...
That's something I can't see happening at all.

The Liberal base loves her, and she's a strong campaigner. Plus there's really no one else that can replace her at the moment.

Given her relatively advanced age (she's about to turn 63), there's a good chance that if she does run in the next election and wins, she'll retire before the end of that term (around 2021 or so).
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  #1387  
Old Posted Apr 17, 2016, 4:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
Still more than two years until the next election. Wynne is someone who can turn things around quickly. Nobody thought she would win a majority at the beginning of the last election campaign. She is also an amazing campaigner and should never be underestimated.

Wynne may be unpopular as Premier but come election time, how good will the alternatives look?
Call me crazy, but I actually think that, with the way things stand now, the most likely outcome is another Liberal majority.

Why?

1) The Liberal Party's huge financial superiority, which thanks to the way that fundraising scandal has played out, can probably be locked in by Wynne without any real backlash. A part of me suspects Wynne of engineering this scandal on purpose for this effect (raise a huge amount of money for the Liberals, leak the quota story, create a media furor that then justifies Wynne making strict limits on fundraising, preventing the PCs from catching up just as their rebuilding starts--a rather clever conspiracy)

2) The PCs dealing with internal chaos over Brown's moderation attempts.

3) With a PC victory looking reasonably likely to most voters, fear of a PC win will drive NDP support into the ground.

4) Looking at the way the economic indicators are going, Ontario's going to be in very good shape economically as the 2018 campaign starts, with a balanced budget and everything. Furthermore, thanks to this, Wynne will be able to use the 2018 budget to throw all kinds of popular spending goodies at Ontarians (we saw a preview of this in this year's budget with the tuition grant).
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  #1388  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2016, 7:09 PM
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http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...-by-10-points/

Favourability of Wynne is down to 18%. Brown's is only 22% (although a large "don't know" group exists with him). "None of the above" is rated the Best Premier right now.
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  #1389  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2016, 11:28 PM
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It's hard to know with Forum as they're all over the place with their record in Ontario (although their historical trend has been to overestimate Liberal support rather than underestimate it).

Some numbers from Mainstreet would be pretty nice, they're track record is solid.

Interesting that both major leaders are so low... though Brown's is probably simply a result of lack of knowledge. This is dangerous for him as it means the Liberals can paint the public's opinion of him with attack ads.. the PCs need to be able to step up their game and let Ontarians know who Brown is.
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  #1390  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2016, 3:21 AM
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It's hard to know with Forum as they're all over the place with their record in Ontario (although their historical trend has been to overestimate Liberal support rather than underestimate it).

Some numbers from Mainstreet would be pretty nice, they're track record is solid.

Interesting that both major leaders are so low... though Brown's is probably simply a result of lack of knowledge. This is dangerous for him as it means the Liberals can paint the public's opinion of him with attack ads.. the PCs need to be able to step up their game and let Ontarians know who Brown is.
Indeed, plus the new boundaries are much more favourable for the Liberals. I believe all the new seats are in the Golden Horseshoe or in Ottawa. The Liberals have little in the way of gain potential otherwise (unless the PC Party implodes like in Alberta), so they need to milk their base all they can.

Historically, the Liberal Party itself did not do much in the way of attack ads. It was outside sources - mainly unions - that did. The funding reform may have the side effect of limiting such, hurting the Liberals more than anyone.
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  #1391  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2016, 4:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...-by-10-points/

Favourability of Wynne is down to 18%. Brown's is only 22% (although a large "don't know" group exists with him). "None of the above" is rated the Best Premier right now.
The poll doesn't surprise me at all. It's actually good news for the governing Liberals. PC leader Patrick Brown has been very weak as opposition leader. Very few people seem interested in him and nobody knows where he and his party stand on pretty much everything. The previous leader Tim Hudak had the exact same problem. Brown seems like a nicer guy than Hudak but he seems kind of odd.

The good news for the Liberals is the huge percentage of people who are undecided. Obviously a large chunk of those people would consider voting Liberal. Don't forget that the Liberals started the last two election campaigns behind in the polls and were "supposed" to lose according to many predictions.
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  #1392  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2016, 6:14 PM
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Now that Ontario pension plan is basically dead with new CPP enhancements I wonder if Wynne will introduce Pharmacare for Ontario.

Both of my parents don't have medical coverage, small buz owners, so this would grab their attention. The current Trillium coverage for medical is still expensive.
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  #1393  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2016, 7:27 PM
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Originally Posted by SteelTown View Post
Now that Ontario pension plan is basically dead with new CPP enhancements I wonder if Wynne will introduce Pharmacare for Ontario.

Both of my parents don't have medical coverage, small buz owners, so this would grab their attention. The current Trillium coverage for medical is still expensive.
There are rumours about this. Kathleen Wynne was an advocate for OHIP being extended to include prescription drugs in the past before entering politics and when she ran for Liberal leader she brought it up a couple times, but with this term largely preoccupied by having to balance the budget the topic hasn't come up.

I suspect universal pharmacare isn't nearly as expensive as one would think. The government already gives a lot of money to drugs, as:
1) Most Seniors get most of their drug costs covered through the ODB.
2) People on social assistance get pretty generous drug coverage from the province.
3) There are 800,000 workers in the provincial public sector who have workplace drug coverage, and many of them extend the coverage to include spouses and dependents.
4) There's all the ad-hoc payment of people's drug costs through Trillium and other various programs on top of that.

Based on all these things, and the administrative costs associated with all these programs, 50%-70% of Ontarians' drug spending is probably already being paid for by the province anyway.
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  #1394  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2016, 1:55 AM
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I have prescription coverage through a workplace health benefits plan for $24/month, the prescriptions are just a small part of that, I don't think it would be extremely expensive. Would probably be a lot cheaper since, like Medicare, everything would be pooled together with less overhead than the dozen agencies and dozens if not hundreds of private companies currently providing prescription coverage to only a small amount of the population.
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  #1395  
Old Posted Jun 26, 2016, 3:39 AM
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Once the budget is balanced, which should be soon, watch for some big promises from Wynne to make Patrick Brown and the PCs seem less interesting.

I agree that pharmacare is will likely be proposed as well as some sort of daycare program sort of like what Quebec has. Those are two things the conservatives would likely oppose and then the Liberals could accuse Patrick Brown of being mean to families with children and to people who pay the full amount for prescriptions. The Ontario Liberals have been good at luring the PCs into a trap during the last few election campaigns.
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  #1396  
Old Posted Sep 3, 2016, 11:18 PM
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So the PCs ended up winning the Scarborough by-election.

I'm not sure if this is as huge of a development as it seems.. because voter turnout was so low, the PCs actually got fewer total votes in this by-election than they did in the 2014 election when they came in third place here.. and as a Ford country-esque riding, full of the types of immigrants that are more likely to be socially conservative, it's actually among the lowest hanging fruit in the GTA for the PCs, IMO.

What this will do, IMO, is change perceptions. The fact the PCs were able to score a win within the City of Toronto proper will do a lot to stop potential votes from writing off the PCs as a party for white rural men.

It may also result in a degree of Liberal panic. What this should indicate to Liberal strategists is that more working class / "Ford country" type areas of the GTA are vulnerable to being lost to the PCs. This may very well translate into a renewed focus by the Liberals on policies that appeal to this group.

This may mean, for example, that instead of using the extra spending room from the balanced budget on universal pharmacare (like Wynne has long been known of dreaming to do), they might spend it on subsidizing hydro instead.
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  #1397  
Old Posted Sep 5, 2016, 4:18 PM
eternallyme eternallyme is offline
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So the PCs ended up winning the Scarborough by-election.

I'm not sure if this is as huge of a development as it seems.. because voter turnout was so low, the PCs actually got fewer total votes in this by-election than they did in the 2014 election when they came in third place here.. and as a Ford country-esque riding, full of the types of immigrants that are more likely to be socially conservative, it's actually among the lowest hanging fruit in the GTA for the PCs, IMO.

What this will do, IMO, is change perceptions. The fact the PCs were able to score a win within the City of Toronto proper will do a lot to stop potential votes from writing off the PCs as a party for white rural men.

It may also result in a degree of Liberal panic. What this should indicate to Liberal strategists is that more working class / "Ford country" type areas of the GTA are vulnerable to being lost to the PCs. This may very well translate into a renewed focus by the Liberals on policies that appeal to this group.

This may mean, for example, that instead of using the extra spending room from the balanced budget on universal pharmacare (like Wynne has long been known of dreaming to do), they might spend it on subsidizing hydro instead.
Doug Ford was their chief strategist as well in this riding. It doesn't appear the double flip flop on sex ed was a big issue.

Agreed the Liberals will need to focus on those groups, since white rural voters are almost certainly a lost cause for them. They might need to stop the hydro sale, or at least restructure it. The "corners" of Toronto see the fewest benefits from any transit investments as they are the farthest from the subway lines as well.

I would have thought those areas would be prime NDP country, except the social activists and the working class union base can't seem to get along.
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  #1398  
Old Posted Sep 5, 2016, 4:21 PM
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Ottawa-Vanier is next, and it *should* be safe for the Liberals as the riding has neither the union base nor the working class "grittiness". In terms of GTA equivalence it would be something like either Don Valley East or St. Paul's. If they lose that then it is time to really panic.
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  #1399  
Old Posted Sep 5, 2016, 5:13 PM
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Doug Ford was their chief strategist as well in this riding. It doesn't appear the double flip flop on sex ed was a big issue.
IMO, Brown came out of that one looking good. His final stance in favour of the curriculum was strong and principled (as opposed to all his earlier declarations on the subject which were somewhat vague/wishy-washy) and his apology for previous stances came across as quite humbling.

A part of me actually thinks the flip flop was engineered on purpose, so as to call attention to the issue allowing Brown to make it well known across the province that he's not a social conservative, and that he owns up to his mistakes well. (This latter point sells well given the Liberal track record).
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  #1400  
Old Posted Sep 5, 2016, 5:18 PM
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I would have thought those areas would be prime NDP country, except the social activists and the working class union base can't seem to get along.
The NDP did pretty well in the Scarborough by election--a very respectable 3rd with 27% of the vote.

The NDP have a lot of potential. They could, in theory, win the 2018 election by ditching the more radical activists and focusing on a combination of the working class base and moderate progressives who would normally support the Liberals but are disillusioned with their regime fatigue.
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