Canada in 10 Years

[kiwi]

I understand that 10 years is a long time, but I would like you see what you think our Country will look like in 10 years? I know this is a every open ended question, but I would like to get your thoughts on this.

[Biff]

Originally Posted by kiwi

I understand that 10 years is a long time, but I would like you see what you think our Country will look like in 10 years? I know this is a every open ended question, but I would like to get your thoughts on this.

Same as now, but 10 years older?

[bkd]

Annexed by the United States of America.

[Architype]

Harper will just be 10 years older.

[KnoxfordGuy]

The cities in Atlantic Canada will be the only source of our population growth. Our region is still in transition. Something Quebec and Ontario did 70 years ago when the urban started to outpace the rural. I think all of Atlantic Canada is still only about 50% urban where the majority of the other provinces are 80+. We need to get there. Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and even PEI are lucky because they all have the one large center but New Brunswick has three that battle it out for supremacy and it kinda keeps all three of them from reaching their full potential.

Edit: This Globe & Mail article helps explain the situation:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...service=mobile

[Stryker]

I think we'll be in the beginnings of an overhyped global phenom called the great automation boom.


If the 90s were the IT boom, the last 15 the globalization-commodities boom-rise of asia, than I think for certain the great automation boom is what were about to see.

Give it five years or so, and I think robots are really gonna take over alot of different jobs.

Even now the processing power is very much there for a lot of different activities to be automated.

The real issue is the investment needed to really get the ball rolling.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Stryker

I think we'll be in the beginnings of an overhyped global phenom called the great automation boom.


If the 90s were the IT boom, the last 15 the globalization-commodities boom-rise of asia, than I think for certain the great automation boom is what were about to see.

Give it five years or so, and I think robots are really gonna take over alot of different jobs.

Even now the processing power is very much there for a lot of different activities to be automated.

The real issue is the investment needed to really get the ball rolling.

And how will this be good for actual living breathing humans that require a job to live and to provide for their families???

Automation will likely result in mass unemployment (especially for the young and the marginalized), resulting in a permanent disaffected underclass and the rise of civil unrest.

Our robot future is as much to be feared as it is to be embraced.

People count too.......

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And how will this be good for actual living breathing humans that require a job to live and to provide for their families???

Automation will likely result in mass unemployment (especially for the young and the marginalized), resulting in a permanent disaffected underclass and the rise of civil unrest.

Our robot future is as much to be feared as it is to be embraced.

People count too.......

Well that's why I think we need more socialist style governments.

With billionaires like elon musk being able to out compete whole nations with his gigafactory, I think we'll need to have the state take control of these operations. As nationalization is of infrastructure is needed.

[rbt]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And how will this be good for actual living breathing humans that require a job to live and to provide for their families???

Automation is going to happen.

A shorter workweek (20 hours) would allow twice as many to work for nearly the exact same pay they get today. See Sweden where many companies have 6 hour workdays, 5 days per week with full salary.

[someone123]

Yes, I think we need guaranteed income and probably free post-secondary tuition in order to maintain a high living standard once unskilled or semi-skilled human labour is of little value. It will be possible to afford these because the automation itself will create a huge amount of wealth. The problem is that countries will need to make sure that some of that gain is widely allocated rather than hoarded by a few wealthy people.

The shorter work week idea is interesting too. Not everything is like this, but some of the things we buy (e.g. land) are not much more than zero-sum. There's an arms race that requires a lot of effort not to create new items but merely bid up the price of what's there, and in the end we get more or less the same stuff for way more effort. University admissions can be a lot like this too. These are tragedies of the commons and aren't very efficient in terms of generating improvements to quality of life from hours worked.

Unfortunately today I don't think Canadian society is very close to grappling with these problems in an effective way. For this to change a large portion of the population needs to understand what is going on, but for now we still have a 1980's type mindset that is too preoccupied with ideas like cutting taxes and balancing budgets. Those may or may not be desirable policies but they're not sufficient to deal with what's going on today.

[middeljohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And how will this be good for actual living breathing humans that require a job to live and to provide for their families???

Automation will likely result in mass unemployment (especially for the young and the marginalized), resulting in a permanent disaffected underclass and the rise of civil unrest.

Our robot future is as much to be feared as it is to be embraced.

People count too.......

That's a very short-sighted view.

Technology has advanced significantly in the last 100 years, and has replaced human jobs countless times already. So if your argument is true then we should've reached mass unemployment ages ago.

The reality is that when a new technology replaces people, the existence of that technology in itself creates new jobs which didn't exist before, effectively resulting in neutral unemployment in the long term. Any negative unemployment stats are temporary while the rest of the market catches up to the new technology. And the fact that the new technology is able to perform more efficiently than a human could frees up time to focus on other ways we can advance.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by middeljohn

The reality is that when a new technology replaces people, the existence of that technology in itself creates new jobs which didn't exist before, effectively resulting in neutral unemployment in the long term.

What's the evidence to support the idea that obsolete jobs will always be replaced with new jobs? I think what we see is actually the opposite; new technology frequently requires fewer people working because the goal behind its deployment is reduced cost and cutting back on labour is a prime way to save money.

The reason why we don't see employment levels tank is that people need some kind of employment to earn an income and survive, so they work their way down the ladder as employment opportunities dwindle. I think this is why we have seen little growth in real incomes over the past 30 years despite the fact that productivity has been going up.

New technology can also open up new industries that demand labour but I don't think there's any guarantee that this has to match up with or exceed the number of lost jobs. I also don't believe that the people who lost their jobs in old industries are the same ones who will get new jobs in new industries.

[Infrequent Poster]

Still no decision on any sort of replacement for Canadas cf-18 fleet. Only 12 of the jets remain operational across the whole country. Most of Canadas Navy has been mothballed. Two working ships on the east coast and one on the west coast. Huge cost over-runs on the new built in canada arctic patrol boats and endless problems and deficiencies with the one ship they managed to build, lead to them shutting down the contract. A new 5 year study is proposed on what to do next. A global conflict in the middle east has the Canadian military providing catering services to other more capable nations like mexico and peru.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by someone123

What's the evidence to support the idea that obsolete jobs will always be replaced with new jobs? I think what we see is actually the opposite; new technology frequently requires fewer people working because the goal behind its deployment is reduced cost and cutting back on labour is a prime way to save money.

It's the very nature of the service economy.

A country industrializes until all basic goods, including food, shelter and clothing can be cheaply and easily by a small portion of the population.

I believe this happened back sometime before the great depression.

Then a combination of needless consumption of goods, and services is added to continue growing the economy.

This is I believe a strong reason why people were essentially forced into cars.

And why cheap credit is used to drive consumption.

The beauty of the consumption-service based economy is that the more people with jobs, the more money gets spent, as the rich have a nasty habbit of just using their money to increase production.

The whole system works best when people are living pay check to pay check.


The problem of course is when we hit the physical limits of the planet and we end up with a fixed basket of material goods.

The only thing remaining are services that are totally unnecessary unless outside of the need as a form of income distribution.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by Infrequent Poster

Still no decision on any sort of replacement for Canadas cf-18 fleet. Only 12 of the jets remain operational across the whole country. Most of Canadas Navy has been mothballed. Two working ships on the east coast and one on the west coast. Huge cost over-runs on the new built in canada arctic patrol boats and endless problems and deficiencies with the one ship they managed to build, lead to them shutting down the contract. A new 5 year study is proposed on what to do next. A global conflict in the middle east has the Canadian military providing catering services to other more capable nations like mexico and peru.

Well our conservative prime minister has done shit with the arctic.

And the middle east really deserves none of our involvement.

[Black Star]

Oilers at least 3 cups

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by Black Star

Oilers at least 3 cups

Are you implying they get relegated to the WHL

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by middeljohn

That's a very short-sighted view.

Technology has advanced significantly in the last 100 years, and has replaced human jobs countless times already. So if your argument is true then we should've reached mass unemployment ages ago.

The reality is that when a new technology replaces people, the existence of that technology in itself creates new jobs which didn't exist before, effectively resulting in neutral unemployment in the long term. Any negative unemployment stats are temporary while the rest of the market catches up to the new technology. And the fact that the new technology is able to perform more efficiently than a human could frees up time to focus on other ways we can advance.

Here's a quote for you:

Martin Ford - author of Rise of the Robots - thinks we face mass unemployment and economic collapse unless we make radical changes, such as offering humans a basic wage, a guaranteed income.

It comes from this BBC article dealing with the "brave new world" we face.

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-33327659

The prediction is that about 35% of existing jobs will be eliminated in the next 20 years. The frightening thing is that they aren't just talking about mundane assembly line factory positions, but about jobs in many areas of human endeavour, including professional positions in areas such as law, medicine and accounting. Your friendly neighbourhood doctor could be replaced on two fronts; by intelligent programs which allow for precise diagnostics and by dextrous robots which could be more precise than a surgeon's shaky hand. Mundane jobs in law (such as doing legal searches on line) could be done by an algorithm rather than a legal clerk, but in the end, it would mean fewer lawyers are necessary to do the same amount of work. Need an accountant? Just program an AI computer with the federal tax laws and suddenly all (human) accountants will be out of work. Once autonomous vehicles are perfected, suddenly long haul truckers, local deliverymen and taxi drivers will get the heave ho. The list goes on.......

About the only safe category would appear to be artists and actors - but wait, they're already replacing human actors with CGI in some movies.

What will happen to human society when we quite literally have become redundant and have nothing to do........

[WhipperSnapper]

They said that 20 years. Lot of crap jobs have been replaced by machines since that has created a need for more engineeers, technicians and, programmers.

My experience with the German post secondary system is that you don't really get to choose what you want to study. Spaces are capped according to the needs of the country. I don't necessarily vhave a problem with it. I know too many in Canada that are employed in a completely unrated field to their degree. Neither the high school councillors or the universities are concerned about this encouraging more and more to study dead end arts degrees.

[MolsonExport]

Hopefully Dr. Nevergold will be celebrating a successful ten years as a Canadian Citizen. Unresign!