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  #101  
Old Posted May 13, 2017, 10:12 PM
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Orioles and Yankees at the top of the league is in Toronto's favour.
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  #102  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 7:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Berklon View Post
Yea, it's ridiculous to count them out this early. They're only 22% into the season - still a long way to go.
To say that it's ridiculous is a little strong. Fact is, literally every team in the AL is ahead of them in the standings. And while it's a small sample size, no team has recovered from the kind of start the Jays had to make the playoffs. Those are facts that can't be denied.

So, yes, they're only 4 GB of the Wild Card but they will need to play very well and very consistently the rest of the way and get a decent amount of luck, too - there's no room for error at this point. If they do it, they'll be the first. Even if they don't, they will likely make it interesting before the year is done.
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  #103  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 2:01 PM
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Where are you getting your facts? There have been a number of teams that have gone last to first or first to last after 40 games. I believe the 2015 Jays count in that group too.
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  #104  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 2:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Dr Awesomesauce View Post
To say that it's ridiculous is a little strong. Fact is, literally every team in the AL is ahead of them in the standings. And while it's a small sample size, no team has recovered from the kind of start the Jays had to make the playoffs. Those are facts that can't be denied.
Not sure where you're getting your facts. The Jays are only 7 GB right now and there have been plenty of teams who've made up that deficit in the second half of the season - and some who've done it in the last quarter of the season. The Jays haven't even finished the first quarter of their season.

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So, yes, they're only 4 GB of the Wild Card but they will need to play very well and very consistently the rest of the way and get a decent amount of luck, too - there's no room for error at this point. If they do it, they'll be the first.
There's plenty of room for error.

I can't believe you think the odds of a teams season is over with only 7GB and less than a quarter of the season played. If that were the case, then there are 11 teams currently who have little chance of making the playoffs with about 120 games left. That's 120 games of empty stadiums because there's little hope.

No, just no.

Last edited by Berklon; May 14, 2017 at 8:30 PM.
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  #105  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 2:57 PM
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According to the 538 website's 2017 MLB predictions page, which appears to be methodologically sound (they use a modification of the Elo system used to rate chess players), the Blue Jays as of today have a 20% chance of making the playoffs, an 8% chance of winning the division, and a 2% chance of winning the World Series.

That sounds about right to me.
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  #106  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 3:26 PM
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Lol at looking at predictions for the world series one month into the regular season. Too funny if you think 7 wins between the top team and the Jays won't change over the next 4 months of baseball. Not to mention we still are out 2 of our best players.
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  #107  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 5:06 PM
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Originally Posted by TorontoDrew View Post
Lol at looking at predictions for the world series one month into the regular season. Too funny if you think 7 wins between the top team and the Jays won't change over the next 4 months of baseball. Not to mention we still are out 2 of our best players.
Um, what? Do you understand the methodology that the website uses? What they are doing are making an estimate of the relative quality of the team as it has been so far, as measured by their runs scored and allowed in every game they have played so far, after taking into account a variety of factors such as the opposing team, the starting pitchers, the stadium where the game was played, and so on. Then they calculate the probability of winning N games over the rest of their schedule, for each possible value of N, and compare the total likelihoods of wins for each team in their division.

Of COURSE the final numbers can vary a lot, given what has been done this early in the season, and they account for that in the spread of possible total wins for each team. But they have verified the probabilities by using part-season totals from earlier seasons to "predict" that season, and found that the probabilities they generate match the actual results for the seasons, taken as a whole.
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  #108  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 9:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Mongo62 View Post
Um, what? Do you understand the methodology that the website uses?

Um, what? You do understand that these numbers are based on the standings and scores to date. Just 5 weeks into the regular season. I would suggest checking them out again when we are deeper into the year not at the start as anything can happen between now and October 3rd. With 162 games to play the stats and predictions will change drastically, hell it even says so in the link you provided. So again using that website now for a true accurate prediction of where teams will be come Oct 3rd is laughable.

"Elo is a simple but elegant system that can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate available data.


Anyhow, you and I can see how close those current predictions are in just a few weeks as that website will change daily. The Jays won a 5th game in a row today and a 3rd series in a row today. Only 6.5 games back from the top spot.
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  #109  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 9:50 PM
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Originally Posted by TorontoDrew View Post
Um, what? You do understand that these numbers are based on the standings and scores to date. Just 5 weeks into the regular season. I would suggest checking them out again when we are deeper into the year not at the start as anything can happen between now and October 3rd.
That is the whole point. Yes, there is a wide range of variation in the future win-loss records for each team, but there still has been sufficient baseball played that a likely range of playing abilities can be determined for each team. They then run thousands of simulated seasons, using the full range of likely playing abilities, with more likely team playing abilities getting more simulated seasons. They then look at all the simulated seasons to determine the most likely outcomes, given the simulated results using the expected ranges of playing abilities.

This is not just pulled out of their asses. They tested the algorithms using partial historical seasons, and comparing the 'predictions' against the actual results. Of course the actual results would differ from the predictions by some amount, but on average they were dead on.

Predictions this early in the season have a greater variance from the final results than they will later in the season, but they are still as accurate as can be expected, given the smaller sample size.
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  #110  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 9:55 PM
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The numbers are very close to how I feel about the team.
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  #111  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 10:02 PM
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well...tied for 12TH out of 15
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  #112  
Old Posted May 15, 2017, 3:47 AM
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Jays sweep Mariners and now only 4 games below 500.
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