HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForumSkyscraper Posters
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Global Projects & Construction > Supertall Construction

    

One Vanderbilt in the SkyscraperPage Database

Building Data Page   • Comparison Diagram   • New York Skyscraper Diagram
New York Projects & Construction Forum
            
View Full Map

Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #1841  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 6:58 PM
excel excel is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 3,232
I can't get over how exciting the next 5 years will be for construction in NYC. Requires at least one visit a year for me
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1842  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 8:07 PM
BrownTown BrownTown is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by excel View Post
I can't get over how exciting the next 5 years will be for construction in NYC. Requires at least one visit a year for me
The current pace of construction is unsustainable. We're very likely to see a recession in the next 5 years which will slam the breaks on these projects that haven't started yet when it hits. Unfortunately the economic boom we're experiencing now isn't going to last forever.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1843  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 9:20 PM
NYguy's Avatar
NYguy NYguy is offline
New Yorker for life
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Borough of Jersey
Posts: 34,916
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownTown View Post
The current pace of construction is unsustainable. We're very likely to see a recession in the next 5 years which will slam the breaks on these projects that haven't started yet when it hits. Unfortunately the economic boom we're experiencing now isn't going to last forever.
The pace of new office construction has more to do with New York's lack of new product and lease expirations. I do expect a slowdown in construction at some point, but New York's outdated stock isn't getting any younger. Those looking for large footprints or consolidations into single, modern office towers would likely continue. This particular tower is the rare "boutique" office tower, looking for top of the line tenants who won't need the massive space like the big boys. But the biggest threat to continued development is lack of development space. Hudson Yards is building out rapidly, faster than City projections. That's why I'm glad the Midtown East rezoning is moving forward as planned. This tower is the poster child for what can be done to breathe new life into Mew York's older business districts.

Anyway, it may seem like an extraordinary amont of new construction, but whrn we compare it overall, it's a relatively small amount of turnover. A decade from now they'll still be talking about shortage of space.
__________________
NEW YORK. World's capital.

“Office buildings are our factories – whether for tech, creative or traditional industries we must continue to grow our modern factories to create new jobs,” said United States Senator Chuck Schumer.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1844  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 9:54 PM
Zapatan's Avatar
Zapatan Zapatan is offline
El Barto
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Las Americas y Europa
Posts: 3,064
Yea I agree, NYC is a metro area of 20+ million people and the de facto epicenter of the world. The city is also like Hong Kong in the sense that it's extremely difficult to build out so therefore skyscrapers are necessary. While the current boom is something the city has never witnessed before, I'd say for the foreseeable future we'll keep seeing new projects pop up.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1845  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 10:44 PM
NYguy's Avatar
NYguy NYguy is offline
New Yorker for life
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Borough of Jersey
Posts: 34,916
I say just enjoy it, forever how long it lasts.
__________________
NEW YORK. World's capital.

“Office buildings are our factories – whether for tech, creative or traditional industries we must continue to grow our modern factories to create new jobs,” said United States Senator Chuck Schumer.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1846  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 11:04 PM
BrownTown BrownTown is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 467
You guys do know interest rates are going up again next month and expected to keep going up right? The days of cheap money to finance these projects is rapidly coming to an end.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1847  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 11:09 PM
skyscraper skyscraper is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 1,029
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownTown View Post
Unfortunately the economic boom we're experiencing now isn't going to last forever.
YES IT WILL!!! YES IT WILL!!! LALALALALALALALA I'M NOT LISTENING TO YOU!!!!! <covers ears and runs away sobbing>
__________________
"There are two types of countries in the world: Those that use the metric system, and those that have been to the moon."
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1848  
Old Posted May 12, 2017, 1:37 AM
NYguy's Avatar
NYguy NYguy is offline
New Yorker for life
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Borough of Jersey
Posts: 34,916
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownTown View Post
You guys do know interest rates are going up again next month and expected to keep going up right? The days of cheap money to finance these projects is rapidly coming to an end.
Has nothing to do with New York's need for new office space. The towers under construction now will run out of space, or at least the space needed for companies that look to sign the mega leases. It's the sole reason for Hudson Yards, and now Midtown East. Signed leases are what get these towers financed in New York.
__________________
NEW YORK. World's capital.

“Office buildings are our factories – whether for tech, creative or traditional industries we must continue to grow our modern factories to create new jobs,” said United States Senator Chuck Schumer.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1849  
Old Posted May 12, 2017, 1:29 PM
Submariner's Avatar
Submariner Submariner is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 1,055
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYguy View Post
Has nothing to do with New York's need for new office space. The towers under construction now will run out of space, or at least the space needed for companies that look to sign the mega leases. It's the sole reason for Hudson Yards, and now Midtown East. Signed leases are what get these towers financed in New York.
How is the Midtown east proposal going?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1850  
Old Posted May 12, 2017, 3:23 PM
NYguy's Avatar
NYguy NYguy is offline
New Yorker for life
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Borough of Jersey
Posts: 34,916
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner View Post
How is the Midtown east proposal going?

As they say, "swimmingly"...


http://rew-online.com/2017/05/05/a-p...-east-midtown/

A POSITIVE STEP FORWARD FOR EAST MIDTOWN
__________________
NEW YORK. World's capital.

“Office buildings are our factories – whether for tech, creative or traditional industries we must continue to grow our modern factories to create new jobs,” said United States Senator Chuck Schumer.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1851  
Old Posted May 12, 2017, 11:51 PM
BrownTown BrownTown is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYguy View Post
Has nothing to do with New York's need for new office space. The towers under construction now will run out of space, or at least the space needed for companies that look to sign the mega leases. It's the sole reason for Hudson Yards, and now Midtown East. Signed leases are what get these towers financed in New York.
Do you not understand how this works? Higher interest rates mean the cost to build these projects increases. Increased cost to build means increased cost per square foot to rent. Increased cost per square foot to rent makes them less competitive. It's basic Econ 101; when price goes up the amount demanded goes down.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1852  
Old Posted May 13, 2017, 12:26 AM
ChargerCarl ChargerCarl is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Los Angeles/San Francisco
Posts: 2,408
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownTown View Post
Do you not understand how this works? Higher interest rates mean the cost to build these projects increases. Increased cost to build means increased cost per square foot to rent. Increased cost per square foot to rent makes them less competitive. It's basic Econ 101; when price goes up the amount demanded goes down.
I'm not sure this is right because interest rates are also a price: the price of credit.

You need to know why rates rise or fall before you can use them as causal explanations.

For example, rates could rise because of an increase in the demand for credit because we have a booming economy, which would naturally co-exist with an increase in demand for office space.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1853  
Old Posted May 13, 2017, 1:03 AM
NYguy's Avatar
NYguy NYguy is offline
New Yorker for life
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Borough of Jersey
Posts: 34,916
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownTown View Post
Do you not understand how this works? Higher interest rates mean the cost to build these projects increases. Increased cost to build means increased cost per square foot to rent. Increased cost per square foot to rent makes them less competitive. It's basic Econ 101; when price goes up the amount demanded goes down.
And like I told you, it's not a factor in New York's lack of office space. These towers aren't being built because they're CHEAP to build, or because they are cute. They are being built because the city has lagged behind on new office construction, and its supply catching up (or trying to). New construction is happening because the companies that can and need to be in these types of buildings aren't going to wait a few more years and resign another lease in already aged buildings that aren't getting any younger. And finally, all you really need to know about this one is that it is under construction. Whatever nightmare scenario you may have about future construction is yours to have. I'm not interested, so save it.
__________________
NEW YORK. World's capital.

“Office buildings are our factories – whether for tech, creative or traditional industries we must continue to grow our modern factories to create new jobs,” said United States Senator Chuck Schumer.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1854  
Old Posted May 13, 2017, 6:06 PM
BrownTown BrownTown is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 467
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChargerCarl View Post
For example, rates could rise because of an increase in the demand for credit because we have a booming economy, which would naturally co-exist with an increase in demand for office space.
Rates are rising because the Federal Reserve bank is raising them due to there being no slack in the labor market and the desire to contain inflation. Again, this is basic Economics and the the Federal Reserve is trying specifically to stop projects like the ones in NYC from going forward to avoid real estate bubbles created by cheap money.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1855  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 4:22 PM
jsbrook jsbrook is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 2,044
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownTown View Post
Rates are rising because the Federal Reserve bank is raising them due to there being no slack in the labor market and the desire to contain inflation. Again, this is basic Economics and the the Federal Reserve is trying specifically to stop projects like the ones in NYC from going forward to avoid real estate bubbles created by cheap money.
Rates certainly impact construction to some degree, even in Manhattan where demand is strong. But economists have considered the New York market with its very strong demand and the relatively modest and gradual interest rate increases that have happened and are planned by the Fed. And have not projected any dramatic slowdown in construction.

Also, there are countervailing aspects to increases.Higher rates can also attract more foreign investors in all types of assets, including real estate. It's happened before.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1856  
Old Posted May 14, 2017, 4:57 PM
ChargerCarl ChargerCarl is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Los Angeles/San Francisco
Posts: 2,408
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownTown View Post
Rates are rising because the Federal Reserve bank is raising them due to there being no slack in the labor market and the desire to contain inflation. Again, this is basic Economics and the the Federal Reserve is trying specifically to stop projects like the ones in NYC from going forward to avoid real estate bubbles created by cheap money.
I don't want to derail this thread but this is a fundamental misunderstanding of monetary policy. The FED doesn't really "set" rates, it goes where the market tells it to go.

The Fed is trying to hit the theoretical walrasian equilibrium rate, where desired savings = planned investment. What matters is where that equilibrium rate is.

Last edited by ChargerCarl; May 14, 2017 at 5:37 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1857  
Old Posted May 17, 2017, 1:35 AM
NYguy's Avatar
NYguy NYguy is offline
New Yorker for life
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Borough of Jersey
Posts: 34,916
Blah, blah, blah. Let's just watch the construction and enjoy it people.



Video Link




Video Link





https://www.instagram.com/p/BT9fI3XB...ken-by=jcd.nyc





__________________
NEW YORK. World's capital.

“Office buildings are our factories – whether for tech, creative or traditional industries we must continue to grow our modern factories to create new jobs,” said United States Senator Chuck Schumer.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1858  
Old Posted May 17, 2017, 2:52 PM
De Minimis NY De Minimis NY is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Hell's Kitchen, NY
Posts: 65
I hate to feed the fire on this interest rate discussion, but I feel like I should point out that interest rates correlate positively with cap rates (i.e., as borrowing costs increase, land costs decrease).

Understanding how macro factors influence the feasibility of development is a much more complex task than some suggest. Borrowing costs (like land costs) are just one of MANY factors that need to be taken into account.

If you want evidence of this, look back to the commercial real estate boom of the mid-1980’s, which took place at a time when mortgage rates exceeded 15%. Or look at what’s happening right now, with land prices today at historic levels, pushing the cost of delivering new product to historic levels (despite the low interest rate environment), and yet the city is booming with development.

NYGuy is correct; at the end of the day, if the demand is there (anchor tenants), it will get built.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1859  
Old Posted May 18, 2017, 12:22 AM
NYguy's Avatar
NYguy NYguy is offline
New Yorker for life
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Borough of Jersey
Posts: 34,916
Let's just leave it at that. It's a discussion that can be had in a proper thread.
__________________
NEW YORK. World's capital.

“Office buildings are our factories – whether for tech, creative or traditional industries we must continue to grow our modern factories to create new jobs,” said United States Senator Chuck Schumer.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #1860  
Old Posted May 22, 2017, 7:48 PM
NYguy's Avatar
NYguy NYguy is offline
New Yorker for life
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Borough of Jersey
Posts: 34,916
__________________
NEW YORK. World's capital.

“Office buildings are our factories – whether for tech, creative or traditional industries we must continue to grow our modern factories to create new jobs,” said United States Senator Chuck Schumer.

Last edited by NYguy; May 22, 2017 at 8:00 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Global Projects & Construction > Supertall Construction
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 11:11 AM.

     

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.