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View Poll Results: Which CMA will reach 1 million first?
Quebec City 18 13.53%
Winnipeg 69 51.88%
Hamilton 35 26.32%
Other 11 8.27%
Voters: 133. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
Poor Quebec City has even less votes than "other"...

What CMAs are people thinking of when voting other? KWC and London?
Suburban cities like Mississauga, Brampton and Surrey I guess could be in the running but they don't have a CMA.
Winnipeg, Hamilton and Quebec City will all see 1M before K-C-W does.
     
     
  #22  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 12:53 PM
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I voted for Hamilton, but I think it will be close still. Hamilton's close proximity to Toronto is a bonus, and should help with its growth, but Hamilton's economy is also doing relatively well on its own as well. It also has the best location between the three cities, surrounded by many different cities, while the other two are somewhat isolated. Hamilton has a much more moderate climate as well, which many people seem to prefer.
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  #23  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 1:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ue View Post
Hamilton is dependent on how much spillover Toronto growth it gets. If the number increases significantly, it will most likely be the first, but it hasn't caused a surge in growth yet.
Agree but would add that the massive multi billion dollar 10 year build out of GO Transit will be a game changer. Hamilton has managed to buck high population and real estate rates in the GTA but that's about to change.

With all day frequent service on the Lakeshore West line, real estate agents in Hamilton are already seeing unprecedented spikes in prices as people see the city as an affordable and urban alternative.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hamilton's population growth rate 2016-2021 doubling/tripling from the 3.7% it registered 2011-2016.
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  #24  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 1:31 PM
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At the same time, providing all day frequent service to Hamilton Centre will cost an incredible amount of money to upgrade the infrastructure. All day service to Hamilton will probably remain infrequent (hourly) with a hodge podge routing schedule.
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  #25  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 1:38 PM
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It's worth noting that most of the designated greenfield growth areas in Hamilton are in the south and east, areas that aren't really conducive to Toronto "spillover". Cootes Paradise and the escarpment form a bit of a natural boundary and almost all developable land in the vicinity has been developed. Most of the farmland in the area is within the greenbelt as well.

https://d3fpllf1m7bbt3.cloudfront.ne...milton-map.pdf
     
     
  #26  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 1:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Elmira Guy View Post
I'm curious to know which city/cities those who voted "other" had in mind.
Okotoks.
     
     
  #27  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 1:47 PM
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Originally Posted by niwell View Post
It's worth noting that most of the designated greenfield growth areas in Hamilton are in the south and east, areas that aren't really conducive to Toronto "spillover". Cootes Paradise and the escarpment form a bit of a natural boundary and almost all developable land in the vicinity has been developed. Most of the farmland in the area is within the greenbelt as well.

https://d3fpllf1m7bbt3.cloudfront.ne...milton-map.pdf
There's a fair amount of opportunity for infill in the north end along where the Go trains will run. (Though the south end of Hamilton is still closer to Toronto than Wasaga Beach, yet that's apparently seeing plenty of Torontonians.)

I still think the biggest boost for Hamilton will be Go expanding past Hamilton though, so it can attract inbound commuters from Brantford and Niagara, making it a more attractive location to open business.
     
     
  #28  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 1:52 PM
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^Yeah there is definitely huge potential for infill. But it's hard to see truly significant population growth solely through intensification. Mississauga illustrates this quite well - their growth rate has dropped significantly as the last remaining greenfield sites have been developed. Despite massive amount of multi-family construction.
     
     
  #29  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 2:18 PM
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Winnipeg will hit 1 million first. Just 'cause they have the Jets.
     
     
  #30  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 2:24 PM
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Originally Posted by niwell View Post
^Yeah there is definitely huge potential for infill. But it's hard to see truly significant population growth solely through intensification. Mississauga illustrates this quite well - their growth rate has dropped significantly as the last remaining greenfield sites have been developed. Despite massive amount of multi-family construction.
True, but that intensification will be driven heavily by Toronto CMA commuters, while the city will still have it's own natural growth. Grabbing only an extra 6 thousand Torontonians a census period (Mississauga managed about 8K last census) would put Hamilton on par with Quebec for absolute growth (26K a census period growing to 33K).

Factor in the local economy being on the up swing and the fact that Toronto's managed significantly more success with intensification (adding what, 50K people via infill?) or Vancouver (adding about 30K mostly with infill) which seems to imply historic areas have an easier time intensifying (different customer base I suppose?).
     
     
  #31  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 2:49 PM
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Hamilton isn't Toronto or Vancouver. It's main attraction is affordability which is less achievable through sustained intensification. The underutilized, derelict lots will be gobble up quickly if they haven't been already. 6000 spillover is reasonable although optimistic.
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  #32  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 2:59 PM
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Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
Poor Quebec City has even less votes than "other"...
.
Quebec City isn't really "poor" in this matter because no one there really cares about this type of stuff. (Though presumably they do care that Winnipeg is back in the NHL and they aren't, but that's another topic but unrelated to population growth...)

Before anyone gets excited it's worth mentioning that this indifference on the part of Quebec isn't necessarily about thinking they're superior or "above it all"... it's just part of an entrenched aloofness about the rest of Canada outside the province's borders.

(Kind of like asking people in Ottawa if they care that their metro is smaller than Columbus, Ohio...)
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  #33  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 3:11 PM
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Yet your reasoning doesn't really support these population discussions. Unless, you're saying everyone was simply trolling Chad for being Chad.
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  #34  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 3:13 PM
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^ Even if Quebec is the third of the group to crack 1,000,000, who cares? All three cities are growing although personally, I'm more concerned with prosperity than population growth.
     
     
  #35  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 3:22 PM
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Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
Yet your reasoning doesn't really support these population discussions. Unless, you're saying everyone was simply trolling Chad for being Chad.
I don't get it.
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  #36  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 3:29 PM
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^ Even if Quebec is the third of the group to crack 1,000,000, who cares?
Of course absolutely no one. I'd wager that more than 90% of people who live in Quebec have no idea / have varying guesses as to the population of their city.

Nobody cares really. Hell, I know professional urbanists, designers and architects who have lived in Montreal for decades, and have no clue what Montreal's population is. If they have to guess its usually around 1 million. So when I tell them its 4 million they fact-check this and correct me by saying its actually 1.7 million or something.

So yeah, I've since learned to keep my population geek status a secret on the interwebs now.
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  #37  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 3:33 PM
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Winnipeg, unlike Quebec, does not have much potential in interregional migration. Quebec City is surrounded by many small and medium sized cities. There are also many Montréalers who move to Quebec City.
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  #38  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 3:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim View Post
Of course absolutely no one. I'd wager that more than 90% of people who live in Quebec have no idea / have varying guesses as to the population of their city.

Nobody cares really. Hell, I know professional urbanists, designers and architects who have lived in Montreal for decades, and have no clue what Montreal's population is. If they have to guess its usually around 1 million. So when I tell them its 4 million they fact-check this and correct me by saying its actually 1.7 million or something.

So yeah, I've since learned to keep my population geek status a secret on the interwebs now.
they don't know the difference between ''city'' and ''metropolitan''. But we know that Coderre knows what's up.
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  #39  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 5:00 PM
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Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
Yet your reasoning doesn't really support these population discussions. Unless, you're saying everyone was simply trolling Chad for being Chad.
This kind of discussion board will tend to attract geeks who like to discuss these "on paper" stats as if they were the most important thing about cities. Chad was the poster boy for this type of individual, but was by no means the only person here interested in seriously discussing data and population figures.
     
     
  #40  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2017, 5:20 PM
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On topic, I would personally be curious to see what kind of "Greater Greater" Quebec City area you'd have to draw in order to have a population exceeding Manitoba's.

(To see how much of a stretch it is, considering the city's actual catchment area.)
     
     
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