Census 2011 Results:

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by flar

I'm a bit surprised at Winnipeg's showing, I thought they'd be closer to 750k. I'm not surprised at Ottawa being 4th, it's been growing like crazy, building both up and out. Mostly out unfortunately, Barrhaven, Stittsville, Kanata and Riverside South have houses going up by the minute.

When the undercount is added in, I wouldn't be surprised if it changed Winnipeg's numbers by 20-30k at the very least.

730k was pegged in 2008. At least our growth went up 2.4% in 5 years. Not bad for a "have-not" city. Growth is there; it wasn't stable (i.e. stayed in the 2-3% range)


Everyone's numbers were a little lower than I anticipated, in the top 10 (including Quebec City + Hamilton), plus Halifax, Saskatoon, Regina

[dansk]

Originally Posted by jeremy_haak

I thought I would expand on flar's post by showing all of the population centres within each of the six largest CMAs and then the total population and density when they are all combined. It gives a slightly more regional perspective and compensates for some peculiarities when just looking at the population centre data (Kanata being a separate centre from Ottawa, for examples).

Geographic name			2011 Pop	Area	Density



Toronto				5,132,794	1751.5	2930.5

  Milton			   75,573	  32.1	2356.5

  Georgetown			   40,150	  23.1	1736.6

  Orangeville			   30,729	  31.2	 986.2

  Bolton			   25,954	  11.2	2327.7

  Keswick - Elmhurst Beach	   25,527	  20.0	1274.4

  Stouffville			   24,886	  14.9	1673.6

  Bradford			   22,378	  12.2	1841.8

  Alliston			   15,379	  16.9	 910.0

  Uxbridge			   11,531	  19.4	 594.7

  Other (10)			   39,154	  63.9	 612.6

  Total				5,444,055	1996.2	2727.2



Montréal			3,407,963	1545.3	2205.4

  Chateauguay			   70,812	  94.4	 774.4

  Saint-Jerome			   65,825	  55.5	1185.6

  Beloeil			   50,796	  47.6	1067.6

  Salaberry-de-Valleyfield	   39,391	  10.1	3892.4

  Hudson			   21,091	  37.0	 569.4

  Varennes			   19,458	   6.7	2886.9

  Les Coteaux			   15,847	  21.2	 747.5

  L'Assomption			   14,113	   6.0	2356.1

  Sainte-Anne-des-Plaines	   10,890	   3.8	2850.8

  Lavaltrie			   10,436	   7.1	1467.8

  Other (8)			   30,932	  42.0	 736.7

  Total				3,757,554	1873.9	2005.3



Vancouver			2,135,201	1150.4	1856.0

  White Rock			   82,368	  46.0	1790.6

  Walnut Grove			   27,969	  17.8	1567.8

  Aldergrove			   12,778	  15.4	 829.7

  Other (2)			    2,431	   4.1	 592.9

  Total				2,260,747	1233.8	1832.4



Calgary				1,095,404	 704.5	1554.8

  Airdrie			   42,564	  33.1	1285.9

  Cochrane			   16,841	  19.6	 861.4

  Chestermere			   14,363	   8.9	1612.0

  Other (3)			    7,418	  17.0	 436.6

  Total				1,176,590	 783.1	1502.6



Edmonton			  960,015	 855.3	1122.4

  Spruce Grove			   27,947	  22.4	1247.1

  Leduc				   24,279	  37.0	 656.7

  Stony Plain			   13,882	  17.6	 787.9

  Beaumont			   13,284	  10.5	1265.1

  Other (6)			   24,742	  55.8	 443.8

  Total				1,064,149	 998.6	1065.7



Ottawa-Gatineau			  933,596	 501.9	1860.1

  Kanata			  101,760	  49.6	2052.0

  Buckingham			   23,589	  31.7	 743.2

  Rockland			   11,099	   8.1  1375.3

  Other (8)			   23,390	  30.8   760.4

  Total				1,093,434	 622.1	1757.8

So with Edmonton, Edmonton would include Sherwood Park/Fort Saskatchwan and St. Albert if I'm reading correctly?

[Chinook Arch]

Originally Posted by bkd

Where are you getting 100,000? I'm getting just around 40,000 with those two added. Seems your numbers are way off.

100k isn't right, nor is 40k. Foothills MD, along wit Okotoks, and High river, Turner Valley and Black Diamond is around 70K

[davidivivid]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Still, it's funny how a lot of people across Canada seem to always understimate Quebec City...

Especially true in light of the census results. I tought it was odd that the consensus here seemed to be that Quebec City was going to fall behind Winnipeg and Hamilton in terms of population, though it might stem from the fact that Quebec City has usually been rather discreet. The city's population growth was strong during the last few years and is set to be even stronger in the years to come:

1- In 2010, for the first time that these numbers are tabulated, more people left Montreal to come to Quebec City then vice-versa (2247 vs 2167). The difference is minimal, 80 citizens, but it marks a shift of great importance. Same can be said with the Montérégie region. Hence, inter-regional migration will most likely favor Quebec City (+ 2554 in 2010).

2- Immigration has historically been very weak in Quebec City but it seems to be gathering steam in the last couple of years. From 2005 to 2009, only 1800 immigrants on average choose Quebec as their new home. In 2010, things seemed to improve significantly with 2629 new immmigrants. From what I gather, 2011 will be a year of record for immigration in Quebec City. These numbers are still small compared to cities of the same size in Canada but the Provincial Capital looks to be on its way to lessen that gap significantly.

3- Retention of immigrants is at a very healty 85% compared to the national average of 80%.

4- I won't go into details but let's just say that the economic fundamentals are very strong.

5- I guess this fifth point would be the exclamation point: I believe oil and gas exploration and production will advanced significantly east of Quebec City in the years to come (Macasty shale in Anticosti, Haldimand in Gaspé and Old Harry in the Gulf). Many if not most of the companies which have important exploration rights are headquartered in Quebec City. The city already has respectable growth but if it can indeed develop an oil and gas sector, it would likely attract even more new inhabitants.

[thurmas]

I think Quebec City is also much more business friendly and conservative to that of Montreal. Quebec city seems to have a can do attitude weather it is getting a new arena and the Nordiques back, lower taxes, attracting events to the city like cracked ice tournament, concerts ect... Where as Montreal is mired in Mafia corruption, petty language battles, crumbling infrastrucutre, politicians on the take, a lack of a business vision for the city.

[Robertpuant]

Originally Posted by thurmas

I think Quebec City is also much more business friendly and conservative to that of Montreal. Quebec city seems to have a can do attitude weather it is getting a new arena and the Nordiques back, lower taxes, attracting events to the city like cracked ice tournament, concerts ect... Where as Montreal is mired in Mafia corruption, petty language battles, crumbling infrastrucutre, politicians on the take, a lack of a business vision for the city.

I feel way too lazy right now to respond to that, knowing it'd take about 2 pages. But let's just pretend you didn't say anything. Keep reading the Reader's digest and the like..

[Darkoshvilli]

Originally Posted by Robertpuant

I feel way too lazy right now to respond that, knowing it'd take about 2 pages. But let's just pretend you didn't say anything. Keep reading the Reader's digest and the like..

Thurmas reminds me of the morons who write for mclean's.

[Razor]

So these results are official for the next five years right?..Not that it matters but, in 2 years Winnipeg can't claim to be more populous then Quebec city, Calgary-Ottawa etc. due to their municipal censuses that not all cities perform or execute in detail like the federal 5 year census?

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by thurmas

I think Quebec City is also much more business friendly and conservative to that of Montreal. Quebec city seems to have a can do attitude weather it is getting a new arena and the Nordiques back, lower taxes, attracting events to the city like cracked ice tournament, concerts ect... Where as Montreal is mired in Mafia corruption, petty language battles, crumbling infrastrucutre, politicians on the take, a lack of a business vision for the city.

How long has it been since you let your mind out of the thermos?

[mike474]

Originally Posted by Robertpuant

I feel way too lazy right now to respond that, knowing it'd take about 2 pages. But let's just pretend you didn't say anything. Keep reading the Reader's digest and the like..

I've lived in both cities. You took the words right out of my mouth

[Wooster]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but just for comparison:

Alliston, ON (in the Toronto CMA)
46km to Toronto City limits (NW corner Etobicoke)
66km to downtown Toronto

Okotoks, AB (not in the Calgary CMA)
13km to Calgary City limits
36km to downtown Calgary

[The Gibbroni]

Originally Posted by thurmas

I think Quebec City is also much more business friendly and conservative to that of Montreal. Quebec city seems to have a can do attitude weather it is getting a new arena and the Nordiques back, lower taxes, attracting events to the city like cracked ice tournament, concerts ect... Where as Montreal is mired in Mafia corruption, petty language battles, crumbling infrastrucutre, politicians on the take, a lack of a business vision for the city.

We're working on all of that, the "more concerts and events" in particular lol!

I'd guess that you've spent a lot of time in both cities?

[Wooster]

Originally Posted by jeremy_haak

I thought I would expand on flar's post by showing all of the population centres within each of the six largest CMAs and then the total population and density when they are all combined. It gives a slightly more regional perspective and compensates for some peculiarities when just looking at the population centre data (Kanata being a separate centre from Ottawa, for examples).
[pre]
Geographic name 2011 Pop Area Density

Calgary 1,095,404 704.5 1554.8
Airdrie 42,564 33.1 1285.9
Cochrane 16,841 19.6 861.4
Chestermere 14,363 8.9 1612.0
Other (3) 7,418 17.0 436.6
Total 1,176,590 783.1 1502.6

---

This is where it begins to be hard to compare apples to apples. While Calgary's municipal boundaries are now ~825 square km, its actual built area isn't close to that as it keeps a 30 year land supply at any given time. So about 300 square km of that 825 square km is farmer's fields currently. (In 2005, the actual gross built up was 473 square km - not sure of 2011 number).

So for example, this is in the City of Calgary: http://maps.google.ca/maps?q=calgary...2,4.39,,0,3.02

as is this: http://maps.google.ca/maps?q=calgary...114.67,,0,8.31

Don't know where the 704.5 square km number comes from as it doesn't align with either built area or municipal boundary.

[eemy]

Originally Posted by Wooster

This is where it begins to be hard to compare apples to apples. While Calgary's municipal boundaries are now ~825 square km, its actual built area isn't close to that as it keeps a 30 year land supply at any given time. So about 300 square km of that 825 square km is farmer's fields currently. (In 2005, the actual gross built up was 473 square km - not sure of 2011 number).

So for example, this is in the City of Calgary: http://maps.google.ca/maps?q=calgary...2,4.39,,0,3.02

as is this: http://maps.google.ca/maps?q=calgary...114.67,,0,8.31

Don't know where the 704.5 square km number comes from as it doesn't align with either built area or municipal boundary.

704.5 sq. km is the area of the population centre, which is delineated based on density. The building block for the popn centre is the dissemination area, which must have a density of 400/sq km. That's not to say that uninhabited areas would always be excluded - maintaining spacial contiguity can cause uninhabited areas to be incorporated; however, it should be much more precise than CMA figures.

[Spring2008]

Find it odd that Stats Canada had Calgary's CMA population @ ~1,230,000 in 2009. 2009-2010 was definitely a shitty growth year, but from 2010-11 the metro area prob grew by at least 30,000.(The Calgary CMA was regularly growing between 35-50,000 people per year in the 2000's)....


I believe Calgary's CMA pop for 2011 should be approximately 1,270,000 with the Calgary Economic Region pop creeping up on 1.4 million...

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Acajack

My city of Gatineau is at 265,000, up around 9% from 242,000. I have to check but I think this is quite a bit above any of the local projections that I had heard around here. I believe we weren't forecast to hit 270,000 or 275,000 until something like 2031, but we were already at 265 last year...

Suckling at the government teat is always a growth industry, no matter what the posturing of the governing party du jour.

[The Gibbroni]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Suckling at the government teat is always a growth industry, no matter what the posturing of the governing party du jour.

Chinese or Canadian government?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Suckling at the government teat is always a growth industry, no matter what the posturing of the governing party du jour.

You have this weird obsession with the word "teat"... were you breast or bottle-fed as a baby?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by davidivivid

Especially true in light of the census results. I tought it was odd that the consensus here seemed to be that Quebec City was going to fall behind Winnipeg and Hamilton in terms of population, though it might stem from the fact that Quebec City has usually been rather discreet. The city's population growth was strong during the last few years and is set to be even stronger in the years to come:

1- In 2010, for the first time that these numbers are tabulated, more people left Montreal to come to Quebec City then vice-versa (2247 vs 2167). The difference is minimal, 80 citizens, but it marks a shift of great importance. Same can be said with the Montérégie region. Hence, inter-regional migration will most likely favor Quebec City (+ 2554 in 2010).

2- Immigration has historically been very weak in Quebec City but it seems to be gathering steam in the last couple of years. From 2005 to 2009, only 1800 immigrants on average choose Quebec as their new home. In 2010, things seemed to improve significantly with 2629 new immmigrants. From what I gather, 2011 will be a year of record for immigration in Quebec City. These numbers are still small compared to cities of the same size in Canada but the Provincial Capital looks to be on its way to lessen that gap significantly.

3- Retention of immigrants is at a very healty 85% compared to the national average of 80%.

4- I won't go into details but let's just say that the economic fundamentals are very strong.

5- I guess this fifth point would be the exclamation point: I believe oil and gas exploration and production will advanced significantly east of Quebec City in the years to come (Macasty shale in Anticosti, Haldimand in Gaspé and Old Harry in the Gulf). Many if not most of the companies which have important exploration rights are headquartered in Quebec City. The city already has respectable growth but if it can indeed develop an oil and gas sector, it would likely attract even more new inhabitants.

I think that people in the ROC underestimate the growth of Quebec City because they never hear about anybody moving there. Most of its population growth is from within Quebec or via (growing) international immigration. Not so much from the rest of Canada.

And yes, without getting into the ugly debate, Quebec City does appear to have more spring in its step than Montreal does at the moment. (Although note that many of Montreal's problems are closely related to decisions made by politicians in Quebec City!)

[freeweed]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think that people in the ROC underestimate the growth of Quebec City because they never hear about anybody moving there. Most of its population growth is from within Quebec or via (growing) international immigration. Not so much from the rest of Canada.

Interesting observation. I don't think in my entire life that I've known one single person who's moved to QC. Montreal, tons. Most other places, tons. Shit, I just met someone born and raised in Calgary who was moving to Kenora of all places. But Quebec City? Zilch.

Of course there's often a perception in the ROC that Montreal is fairly friendly towards Anglophones, whereas QC is full of English-hating French. Maybe that has something to do with it. Stereotypes are powerful things.