Quote:
Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor
I see a rise in green support, but something people forget is how much of the green vote actually comes from the right, in the past 2 by-elections, the greens made gains at the cost of the LINOs, and the NDP but to a lesser extent. If the greens rise to 10% support province wide, not only will they win at least 3 seats, but they will also eat into LINO support, especially in metro Vancouver
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Firstly, concerning those 2 by-elections, Vancouver-Mount Pleasant is the BC NDP's safest seat. Period. Only one of 2 that the BC NDP held in the 77-2 debacle back in 2001.
BTW, incumbent govt's are notorious for losing by-elections in BC. To wit, the only seats that incumbent gov'ts have won in BC are... Cariboo (Socred - 1966), Kamloops (Socred - 1981) and Christy Clark's 2 by-election wins in 2011 and 2013 respectively. That's 4/34 by-elections since November, 1966.
The other by-election... Coquitlam-Burke Mountain saw a record low turnout - no one can go back far enough to confirm when only a 20% voter-turnout occurred. Even then the BC NDP only won by 653 votes. More importantly, ~13,000 voters (that actually voted in 2013) stayed home as the by-election received sparse media attention.
And I have included C-BM as a safe Liberal seat in 2017. Why? It includes the higher income demographic of Westwood Plateau, which comprises a major chunk of the riding. And then Burke Mountain, which has been booming with new SFDs and townhomes over the past few years (expected to have ~40,000 in new population down the road). And the new condo towers in the brownfield areas situate near the Evergreen line in the town centre.
As a matter of fact, all of those polling stations voted heavily Liberal during the 2013 general election and ya can expect the same in 2017.
Now to the Greens - and where their vote came from in 2013. After the election and I did an analysis of all ridings and 4 ridings stuck out as follows (with change in popular vote share from 2009):
1.
Oak Bay-Gordon Head: (former marginal Liberal seat)
BC Green: 40.4% (+31.5%)
BC Liberal: 29.3% (-17.4%)
BC NDP: 28.4% (-16%)
Obviously the BC Greens took about the same proportion of votes from both of the other parties.
2.
Saanich North and the Islands: (former marginal Liberal seat)
BC NDP: 33.3% (-10.9%)
BC Liberal: 32.8% (-11.9%)
BC Green: 32.1% (+20.8%)
Closest three way race in 2013 and the Greens almost won their 2nd seat here. What's more interesting is that the BC Libs won most of the polling stations on the mainland Saanich peninsula while the Greens won basically the rest (NDP won 3). OTOH, the NDP won most of the polling stations on the Gulf Islands with the Greens winning the rest (Libs mostly in 3rd place here). And the Gulf Islands vote overwhelmingly for their fed Green MP - Liz May where one would think the hard-core enviro or "green" vote is situate in the riding.
So in the 2 foregoing seats, the BC Greens took roughly equally from both the BC Libs and BC NDP.
3.
Cowichan Valley: (long-time NDP stronghold on other side of Malahat Pass)
BC NDP: 40.1% (-8.4%)
BC Liberal: 34.9% (-0.8%)
BC Green: 19.2% (+7.4%)
BC Con: 4.6% (+1%)
Most of the obvious movement here was former 2009 BC NDP voters ------> BC Green.
4.
West Vancouver- Sea to Sky:
BC Liberal: 52.3% (-2.6%)
BC NDP: 32.5% (+9.6%)
BC Green: 11% (-11.2%)
BC Con: 3% (+3%)
Again.... most of the movement here was between the BC NDP and BC Greens from 2009... but in the reverse direction.
Back in 2013... the BC Greens were led by Jane Sterk... never in the media outside the election and came across as a boring, wet-noodle.
OTOH, with Andrew Weaver as leader, the BC Greens have received continuous media attention - esp. both print and TV on southern Van Isle. More importantly, Weaver comes across as intelligent, likable, down-to-earth, with some charisma thrown in. And he is expanding the BC Green narrative above and beyond the "enviro" label.
Have said it once and will say it again, I suspect that Weaver will "win" the 2017 leadership debate... with considerable media focus... and will see the BC Greens expand their popular vote share from 2013. And alot will be a "pox on both their houses" [Libs/NDP] vote. How much the BC Greens will rise in 2017 is still in question.
BTW, BC NDP leader Horgan has previously stated to Vaughn Palmer of the Van Sun that the BC Greens will "mow their [green] lawn" in 2017. IOW, conceding that the BC Greens will take former 2013 BC NDP voters from them.
But to again answer your supposition... contrarily I expect the BC Greens to take 3 former BC NDP votes for every 2 former BC Lib votes in 2017 in terms of the overall BC popular vote share.